Week 5 Recap and What Should We Think of the Packers?

Saints fans, wipe those brows.  At least we aren't the Cleveland Browns.  I had the pleasure of spending my New Orleans football time with my good friend Erin in Seattle this weekend, which happened to coincide with our struggling team's very first tick in the win column.  It was a game of fortune as much as it was of skill, but I think this was an important hill for the team to climb that will hopefully lead to at least a more balanced record moving forward... Even if there's plenty of room for improvement and a lot of favorable calls coming the Saints' way lately that won't likely repeat.

It was also another solid week in the Lady Blitz picks, as I went 11 - 3 in Week 5.  Here's your Week 5 Recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: What Should We Think of the Packers?  But first, the good stuff:

Week 5: The Good Stuff

• The Cardiac Colts - I was only able to catch the first half of the early games on Sunday, meaning I was off the grid with the safe assumption that the Packers had already put the Colts away early with a 21 - 3 lead.  Imagine my surprise when I saw the final score.  Would that I could have seen that magical second half for Andrew Luck and company because it is hard to imagine, especially with Aaron Rodgers putting up very decent numbers too.  Of course, Green Bay suffered some big injuries that couldn't have helped their cause, but kudos to Indy for punching adversity in the face.  Although I cannot say for sure this game was on par with those all-time great steep hill performances--Jordan's NBA championship flu game, Brett Favre's Monday Night in mourning, et al--there can be no doubt that Indy made Coach Chuck Pagano proud.  Here's to a quick recovery and the rise of a rookie quarterback living up to impossible expectations.

• The 49ers' Offensive Explosion - Other than maybe the Texans, I don't know that there is a more formidable team in the NFL right now than the San Francisco 49ers.  Granted they were only playing the Bills, which might soon make the Saints defense look 31st in competence, but the Niners set a new franchise record in total offense (621 yards) that was impressive by any measure.  AND they've only allowed 3 points in the last 2 games.  With the two halves of the amulet coming together like this, San Francisco looks like the team to beat in the NFC.  Also, is it me or is Alex Smith starting to follow the Matt Ryan trajectory from efficient and conservative to efficient and explosive?
• Drew Brees' Record-Setting Night - I won't spend a ton of time on this one since I am oh-so-self-conscious about making this more of a Saints blog than I intended, but many congratulations to Drew Brees and New Orleans for breaking Johnny Unitas' 52-year record for TD passes in consecutive games (now at 48 and counting).  I'm glad he did it in style too, putting up 370 yards and 4 TD passes in all.  Marques Colston and Devery Henderson returned the favor Brees often bestows--they made him look spectacular, gaining over 100 yards a piece in the process.  It was definitely a long-awaited feelgood night for this fan.
• Nailed It! My Best Week 5 Prediction: This one goes out to my Giants-Browns prediction, which proved prophetic in the details.  The Browns really looked to give the Giants a run for their money by jumping out to an early 14 - 0 lead, but then Cleveland came crashing back down to Earth swiftly after Brandon Weeden coughed up a nasty pick before halftime:
• "This is just the kind of game that the New York Giants often find a way to lose, so if I were a betting gal, I'd say Big Blue won't cover the spread.  However, the Browns still haven't proven themselves to be primed enough to take advantage of a major upset opportunity like this.  They should beat themselves on Sunday if the Giants won't do it for them."

Week 5: The Bad Stuff

• The Freakin' Eagles... Again - Without going back through the annals just yet, I'd be willing to bet that the Eagles are responsible for some of my worst game predictions so far this season.  Yes, they are responsible.  The only thing I needed to see on Sunday to confirm this was Michael Vick's fumble at the goal line against the Steelers.  Honestly, how is it possible that a man who has already lost 6 fumbles in a mere 4 weeks could be so completely unable--or unwilling--to learn simple ball security?!?!?!  It's roughly 75% of a quarterback's job.  Philly fans should start sweating about where this team is headed.  Whereas most veteran coaches would absolutely consider benching Vick at this point, Andy Reid will not.  It's part of his "Where's my staplerrr?" charm.
• Cam Newton's Sophomore Slump - After five weeks, I think we can call it official.  Cam Newton is not looking like his gloating rookie self these days, and you really have to question his mental resilience going forward in 2012.  At one point in the 3rd quarter against the Seahawks on Sunday, Newton was 3 for 16 with less than 40 yards in passing.  Not for the quarter, the whole game.  This is not to discredit the Seahawks defense, which has more than lived up to the hype so far this season and made a fantastic goal line stand against the Panthers late in the 4th.  But Newton is just not playing nearly as consistently as many were hoping he would with a year of pro experience under his belt.  Even worse, the Gatorade towel sulk routine is getting just as tired as the Superman one.  It's time for this kid to drop the self-branding and focus on football.  Otherwise, Ryan Kalil is going to look like an absolute fool in the papers.  Oh wait.

• Snooze-Worthy Blowouts - There were a fair amount of exciting close games this weekend (re: the Colts/Packers shootout), but there were also some real stinkers in terms of parity in Week 5.  The Jaguars, Bills and Titans couldn't muster more than single digit scores and lost by a collective 16 - 116, but the biggest disappointment to me was [P.] Manning-Brady Bowl XIII.  In my mind at least, there was little question that the Pats would win this one, but for crying out loud, couldn't we have had just a little bit of suspense?  Just a little bit more "could they?" from Denver and some classic Manning two-minute scowls?  Just one Brady tongue-lashing for his wide receivers on the sidelines?  Every time the Broncos tried to get within a possession, the turnover gods would smite them and take us back to commercial.  It was so very underwhelming and yet oh so drawn out.  This one gets a Rotten Tomatoes 15%.
• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 5 Prediction - Of my 3 misses on Sunday, I'm not particularly ashamed of any of them.  The Eagles, as I explained above, really lost the game for themselves so I stand by the Steelers not actually being very good this year.  The Colts were a pleasant surprise and won in a shootout like I had hoped.  The Bengals and Dolphins are still mysteries to me, though I think Miami's stock is starting to go up, especially with the Jets and Bills looking pretty hapless these days.  So here's to keeping a closer bead on the Dolphins in the coming weeks:
• "I'm still not sure about what to think of the Miami Dolphins.  They've been competitive in most of their losses so far this year, but the lack of follow through still matters.  The Bengals on the other hand took that first week in Baltimore to heart in a more productive way and look to be a well-oiled machine at this point, at least against lesser teams.  Gotta go with Cincy's gumption on this one."

Week 5 Feature: What Should We Think of the Packers?
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  I can remember just a few weeks ago looking at all of the sports media picks for the postseason.  Nearly everyone had the Packers going to the Super Bowl and, for the most part, also winning it.  I myself fell into that same trap with my own picks.  But we are all only human and we watched Aaron Rodgers do some very superhuman things with the football last year.  With a 2 - 3 record, there's still plenty of reason to think that Green Bay can make the playoffs, but what should we think of the once-unstoppable Packers?  Here are three possible interpretations:

• The Quality of Wins and Losses - It's true that good teams just find ways to win football games (am I quoting John Madden with something mind-numbingly obvious?), but the Packers have experienced some idiosyncrasies in the early season that may not reflect their true worth.  They've lost to one elite team (the 49ers), one young and less talented team (the Colts), and well, there's that whole Seahawks Monday night adventure in replacement reffing that literally no one should consider an actual loss.  Heck, the Packers get bonus points for being martyrs to the cause in that case.  The Colts game was a shocker, but it is deceptively hard to play an emotional team that feels like they have a lot less to lose than an early Super Bowl favorite.  In terms of the Packers' wins, they stomped the Bears with style and overcame a Saints team that put up a lot of offense against them.  In other words, the wins may show more about the Packers' ability than their losses.  They have much less margin for error at this point, but that's the kind of motivation Coach McCarthy may need to get the best out of his best.

• The Achilles Heel of Imbalance - On the other hand, as I touched on in last week's feature about Joe Flacco (and apparently jinxed him for this week), the Packers have been exposed on more than one occasion in the past two years when Aaron Rodgers plays like a mortal.  When Green Bay has failed to put up more than 30 points, they have been in real trouble, especially in maintaining late leads in games.  The Packers defense showed early signs of improvement this season but they weren't exactly playing your typical offensive juggernauts.  They've looked far more vulnerable against heavy passing teams like the Saints and the Colts in the past two weeks, and this will continue to be an issue as the schedule goes on.  The run game is also looking quite troubling with even mediocre Cedric Benson potentially out for a while.  It is hard to imagine Green Bay being able to compete with the likes of the more balanced Falcons, 49ers or Bears if they make the playoffs under these circumstances, especially if the Packers do not secure home field advantage.
• The Victims of Statistical Anomaly - I do think elements of both arguments above are accurate about the Packers' situation.  However, the less dramatic but very important factor that few are talking about is just how insane Green Bay's statistical performance was last year and thus how unlikely it is to repeat itself this year.  Aaron Rodgers shattered the previous passer rating record by tossing 45 TDs and just 6 INTs in the 2011 regular season.  He's already thrown 4 interceptions in 5 weeks this year, which is more on par with his performance in other seasons. Of course, Rodgers is still extremely talented, but virtually no one in the history of the NFL has lived in that kind of QB nirvana state forever.  On the other side of the ball, the Packers defense of 2011 was never the most efficient or stingy by points or yards allowed, but they reeled in a ton of turnovers. They led the league with 43 to be exact.  If you think repeating passer rating magic is hard, that kind of takeaway stat is nearly impossible to sustain over years.  This is in part because opposing teams (other than the Eagles) become much more attuned to ball security when they play an opportunistic defense but also because there are so many factors beyond pure skill that are in play, or quite literally, which way the ball bounces.  For Green Bay so far, the bounce just hasn't been nearly as kind as in 2011.