Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
I didn't see this coming at the beginning of the season, but this Thursday night clash of our NFC West evil twins is the Lady Blitz Game of the Week. These two teams' fortunes were starkly different in Week 6, but the real questions here are 1) whether or not the 49ers offense has been totally exposed after lopsided losses to the Vikings and Giants; and 2) whether or not Russell Wilson's inconceivable comeback against the Patriots was a fluke or the true turn of a corner for the rookie QB. There's probably a little bit of columns A and B in both cases, which should make things a little scarier for San Francisco tonight, but there's also the counterpoint that the Seahawks haven't played nearly as consistently well away from home and must shorten this week even more to travel to Candlestick. Under different timing and location circumstances, the Seahawks should have the upper hand but my gut says the Niners will take it in Round 1.
The Redskins and Giants have both impressed in the early leg of the season with two of the top five offenses in the NFL. Now comes another big test with their first divisional face-off of the 2012 season. As amazing as the Giants have looked for the past couple of weeks, I don't know if they are out of the woods yet. This is the kind of game they tend to slump into and Washington has been a very tough matchup for the Giants for a long time. This time, they have the fire power in RG3 to come out on top.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Even if the Ravens had not lost Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb to season-ending injuries on Sunday, this upcoming rumble with the Texans would still be an uphill battle for Baltimore. They just haven't been able to defend the run this year against much less formidable rushing teams. Methinks the Texans will exploit that Achilles Heel to no end with the likes of Arian Foster and Ben Tate this weekend. This is exactly how Houston is built to win games, and they should rebound very nicely with Baltimore on its heels.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5)
I don't really know who the Patriots are at this point in the season, but I do know who the Jets are. True, they've done better than some have expected adjusting to the loss of Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes so far, but I suspect they've already pulled all of the Tebow-switching, Cromartie-wide-outing, fake punting tricks that Bill Belichick will be happy (if he is capable of such an emotion) to kill upon impact. Plus, as the Buffalo Bills can attest from Week 4, you just don't want to play an angry Tom Brady. He must be all too willing to transfer the humiliations that Seahawks CB Richard Sherman bestowed upon him to the Jets from the comfort of Foxboro.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Oy. Sean Payton or not, the Saints always seem to drop one against the Buccaneers, which will make for a tough road opponent on Sunday. I will say now that I probably should go with Tampa on this one, but my dumb heart just won't let me. New Orleans has had a bye week to mull over Greg Schiano's system, make some more defensive adjustments, and let an achy but productive offense get back to better health. If the Saints can contain the Martin/Blount tandem just enough to force Josh Freeman into another inconsistent performance, they should squeak by with the grace of St. Breesus this time. That's a big if though.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams
Aaron Rodgers' monster Sunday night performance aside, this game still comes down to which Packers team will show up in St. Louis this weekend. I hate to say it but Houston just made it look way too easy for Green Bay in Week 6 with big injuries all over the Packers roster. All things considered, I think the Packers figured enough things out last week to win this one, but an underrated Rams defense will make them work for every point in a close game.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
Weirdly enough, I might have taken a chance on the Cardinals again this week if Kevin Kolb was playing. Really. But in this duel of NFL October Surprises, I like the Vikings. They are way more balanced, playing at home, and free from worrying about any productive scrambling whatsoever from John Skelton.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals aren't looking as solid as I projected they would at the beginning of the season, but the Steelers aren't even close to fine right now. This pick will probably come back to haunt me since Pittsburgh always seems to have Cincy's number, but with the Steelers' starters dropping like flies, perhaps the Bengals won't be playing the same team this time around. Heaven help Andy Dalton have a smart football game.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6)
How about them Bears? They have looked nearly unstoppable since that embarrassing Week 2 performance against the Packers. Meanwhile, the Lions have bet the farm on the Stafford-Johnson connection each week with very uneven results. Look for a fresh-off-the-bye Chicago defense to take full advantage of Detroit's alarming lack of balance to keep the mojo going in the NFC North.House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3)
Even with the extra rest and a hard-fought victory at home last week, the Titans just don't look like they've made it to the middle of the pack the way the Bills arguably have. After all, it took two big injuries to the Steelers' already struggling O-Line and some very questionable play-calling by Mike Tomlin to put the Titans in a position to win, which closely resembled their only other win so far this year against the Lions, if you recall. Chan Gailey's certainly not above calling bone-headed plays either, but Buffalo has looked mighty good against the bottom of the AFC barrel with big wins over the Chiefs and Browns. With the AFC East crown still [surprisingly] well within reach, Buffalo should be plenty motivated to take advantage of Tennessee's many woes on both sides of the ball.
Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Carolina Panthers
Hoo boy. There's no reason the Panthers should win this game except that they are playing the Cowboys and they are coming off a bye at home. In my mind, that makes things about even. On paper, Dallas looks like a great team-- the offense puts up big numbers and the defense is surprisingly stingy, but the mental mistakes and coaching tragedies continue to ruin this team's many opportunities to win. The Panthers haven't look good on paper or in reality at all this year, but given the home field advantage, the bye week, and what I suspect will be some major adjustments in the game plan for Carolina, I think they can edge out the hopelessly hapless Cowboys.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
So Andrew Luck and a red-headed stepchild rookie QB are facing off in Indy on Sunday? This is a sneaky game to pick. The Browns have been in just about every game they've played this season and should be feeling more confident after securing their first win in Cincinnati last weekend. The Colts have oscillated between hot and cold like Katy Perry with avian flu. But if there's a pattern I'm noticing with the Colts, it's that 1) they haven't had consecutive wins or losses yet; and 2) they have played much better against teams with terrible pass defenses, which will now include the Cleveland Browns.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4)
Oakland probably had the most respectable loss of any team in Week 6, going toe-to-toe with the undefeated Falcons on East Coast time for 58 minutes or so. Of course, that may be more symptomatic of Atlanta's recent struggles than it is of a mediocre Raiders squad gaining momentum. While this game could be closer than we might think, Oakland, like all NFL teams, is still better than Jacksonville.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 5 - 9
Season Record: 57 - 34
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