Week 8 NFL Recap and the Mid-Season Lady Blitz Football Awards

Hoo boy.  This week's post is going to be a little bit of a shot in the dark since I only got to see 1.5 games or so (Giants-Cowboys and 49ers-Cardinals).  But as the wise Alanis Morissette once said, life has a funny way of helping you out, meaning I am thrilled that I was able to miss the Saints' woeful performance in Mile High on Sunday night in order to see a fantastic Primus concert in 3D.  Needless to say I stopped checking the score well before they got to "Wynona's Big Brown Beaver." 

In a bit more brevity than usual, here is your Week 8 Recap.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: The Mid-Season Lady Blitz Football Awards. But first, the good stuff:

Week 8: The Good Stuff

• Doug Martin's Breakout Performance - I admit that in the slog of the week to week, sometimes I get sucked into the gambler's fallacy that the week before is indicative of how a team will perform during the next game.  I firmly believe the Bucs are better than their record, and they showed it with a smash mouth performance against the surging Vikings on Thursday night.  It was a team effort with big offense and big takeaways, but special props go to rookie RB Doug Martin who earned over 200 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs on the night.  It's still a little early to say whether Martin can sustain success, but he certainly looked the part under the bright prime time lights.
• Hotlanta - It's hard to give credit to your arch-nemesis, but this one has a little bit of a smug factor for me. I rolled my eyes this past week when pundit after pundit (and Vegas) picked the Eagles to crash the Falcons' undefeated record simply because Andy Reid was previously 13 - 0 after bye weeks.  Yes, Atlanta's had some ugly wins in the past month, but Andy Reid's stat was and is now meaningless when you look at what these two teams have actually brought to the field this season.  To be clear, I think the '72 Dolphins will be uncorking the champagne yet again at some point in this regular season, as the Falcons are still fallible.  But they are truly on a path to break out in the NFC in a big way this postseason.  They are certainly in good company with their win-loss and scoring records.

• Nailed It!: My Best Week 8 Prediction - While not a blueprint of what I predicted, I give major props to the Miami Dolphins for continuing to make Rex Ryan look very stupid:
• "You've got a winning formula [for the Dolphins] at the Meadowlands: 1) shut down Shonne Greene early and often; 2) force Mark Sanchez to throw his way into disaster; 3) wear down the Jets defense with Reggie Bush before letting Ryan Tannehill loose.  Never thought I'd say it but I got big hopes for these Dolphins, at least this week."

Week 8: The Bad Stuff

• The Big Chokes - Hey, I'm not particularly complaining because these two teams' collapses kept me from going sub-0.500 in my picks again, but how about the Panthers and the Cowboys on Sunday?  Carolina had Chicago backed into a seemingly unwinnable corner on Sunday afternoon when they headed into the 4th quarter at 19 - 7.  But somehow they wound up throwing the ball with the lead in the waning minutes.  With Cam Newton.  Against the most dangerous secondary in the NFL.  For a pick six.  Talk about devastating for a team that was firmly in control for 56 minutes or so.  The Cowboys, on the other hand, absolutely deserved to lose on Sunday and found a way as to do so only the Cowboys can.  I'm not sure how much more proof Dallas needs to fire Jason Garrett after two years of miserable close losses that can be tied directly to his horrible play-calling.  (If I were a betting lady, I'd guess it has something to do with Garrett's hand-puppet status with Micromanager of the Universe himself Jerry Jones).  But somehow after 6 turnovers and an incredibly poor decision not to go for the first down on a 3-and-1 in the final minute, they were still just a Dez Bryant fingernail away from beating the Giants.  This, my friends, is evidence of a just God.

• The Saints' Altitude Sickness - To rip off something my buddy Erin said this week, New Orleans fans should take a page from Al Gore and blame this one on the altitude because there was no silver lining in Denver on Sunday night.  I had to look back to the annals of Wikipedia to confirm the last time the Saints lost this badly, and the winner goes to: a 2008 loss of 7 - 30 at the Carolina Panthers, who were--surprise, surprise--coached by John Fox at that time.  Fox's plan on Sunday night exposed the Saints at their worst, which is when Drew Brees gets shut down and the defense and run game have no answers.  If the Philadelphia Eagles were taking notes for next Monday night, there's no need to bench Michael Vick the way the New Orleans defense is playing.  But hey, Primus was a lot of fun.
• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 8 Prediction - It was another mediocre week of picks in Lady Blitz land, so I have plenty of fodder to choose from.  So I'll pick the one that I even knew I should have gotten right since these are always the most frustrating kinds:
• "Cleveland has a lot of reasons to win this game: the off-field distractions for the Chargers, the timing advantage of playing an early EDT game, Brandon Weeden's continued improvement week to week.  I hope it happens, but good teams find ways to win consistently and the Browns aren't quite there yet."

Week 8 Feature: The Mid-Season Lady Blitz Football Awards
This week, we welcome the moment to zoom out a little bit and reflect on the good, the bad and the Romo in some mid-season awards reflective of everything we've learned (and haven't learned) this season:

• The Most Nailed It! Teams - In terms of my prediction accuracy, it doesn't get better than the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars, both of whom I've picked perfectly (7 - 0 each) since the start of the season.  I've also picked the Jets correctly 7 times, but I shanked it when they stomped the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and they haven't had a bye yet.
• The Most Shanked It! Team - The Pittsburgh Steelers are in sole possession of this, um, prestigious award after I finally got the Eagles right without really meaning to on Sunday.  I have only picked the Steelers correctly 1 time this entire season.  Even my coin toss prediction of the Redskins this past weekend was no match for the fightin' bumblebees.
• Biggest Bear - How can this not be William Perry, you ask?  Because I'm talking about which team's stock has gone down the most since the start of the season.  From the standpoint of my own preseason predictions, few teams have disappointed more than the Carolina Panthers and the Kansas City Chiefs so far this year, both of whom are sporting nasty 1 - 6 records (the win of which they owe entirely to the sad, sad Saints).  The Panthers are going through some growing pains as Cam Newton learns what it's like to struggle and lose, but the Chiefs in particular are beyond hopeless.  In fact, they haven't led a game in regulation time at any point this season.  That's incredibly hard to do unless you've already got your sights [understandably] set on Geno Smith.
• Biggest Bull - On the upside, we've seen some teams rise to the occasion in a big way this year.  The top 7 - 8 teams are no surprise, but I continue to credit the Minnesota Vikings for refusing to be the hunted for the most part this year.  They have a tough schedule ahead, so I am doubtful they'll still be in the playoffs conversation by the time the dust settles, but the Vikings have had some very respectable wins up to now.  Honorable mention goes to the Miami Dolphins, who are certainly in the postseason mix the way the AFC is going these days.

• The Lady Blitz Kiss of Death - This special honor goes to the team or player I've jinxed beyond repair with my vote of confidence.  Midway through 2012, that distinction goes to poor Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens.  Flacco was looking really solid in his complementary style of football through four weeks as I so gushingly mentioned right here.  Then he worked his way to a QB rating of 37 on average (out of 100) over the next three weeks, bottoming out at a 0.3 rating--which I didn't even know was possible--against the Houston Texans.  Yikes.  The defensive injury woes and pass-happy playcalling from OC Cam Cameron certainly haven't helped, but I fear my blogging praise has sent Joe Cool into a real tailspin.  I'm so sorry, Jeanie.
• My Super Bowl Mulligan - At the start of the season, I predicted the Packers to edge out the Ravens in the Super Bowl.  Current-record-wise, that's technically still very possible at this point, but neither team is playing dominantly on a consistent basis right now.  If I had a Super Bowl Mulligan today, I'd like to change my order to the 49ers with a side of Texans.  Neither team looks flawless through eight weeks, but they both show the kind of tenacity and balance that can carry them past a lot of other good teams in January.  And as the (baseball and football) Giants constantly seem to remind us, it's all about getting hot at the right time with the right talent.

Week 8 Picks for Every NFL Game

Buckle your seat belts, kids.  We will officially reach the halfway point of the regular season after this week.  It could be a wild second half, especially in the AFC where only three teams are over 0.500 right now.  It goes without saying that this is a big week as the earliest of early playoff pictures begins to take shape.  A few teams are who we thought they were (Falcons, Texans, Giants, 49ers-- or conversely Browns, Jaguars) and a whole lot are not exactly (the Vikings and Seahawks are pleasant surprises while the Panthers, Saints and Chiefs have been far worse than expected).  But there's still a lot of football left to play, and a lot more opportunities for shakeups, especially in that pitiful AFC. These are my Week 8 Picks for Every NFL Game:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6)
All signs point to a shootout for the ages in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Drew Brees and Peyton Manning will meet on Sunday night in Denver for the first [non-Pro Bowl] time since Super Bowl XLIV.  Despite the Vegas odds, New Orleans could very well win this one since Denver has lost every game it has played against high-powered offenses (Falcons, Texans, Patriots) so far and the Saints appear to be going on a run after a sloppy 0 - 4 start.  But with CB Tracy Porter now on Peyton Manning's side and the Saints defense continuing to struggle against lesser offenses, it just feels like poetic justice that Denver will find a way to win this one.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Vickapalooza takes place in Week 8 between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles who will both be fresh off a bye.  The Eagles will be in search of a new scapegoat after the exile of Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo who, let's face it, was a casting choice worthy of a Razzie to being with.  Sometimes a mid-year coaching change can give teams a surprising temporary boost, so there could be [what I consider] an upset in the cards with all of the talent the Eagles have.  However, in keeping with a tradition of totally erroneous picks for the Eagles, I'm going with the Falcons.  This will surely end Atlanta's undefeated streak at my expense.

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
There is so much delicious polarity in this game I can't stand it: Youth vs. Experience, Finesse and Skill Play vs. Ground and Pound, NFC vs. AFC, Lovable Heisman Rookie vs. Alleged Rapist Veteran (yes, I mean both types of repeat experiences).  Unfortunately, these are two teams I've gotten wrong more than most during the weekly picks.  The Steelers looked better than they have all season against the Bengals last week by returning to their classic identity, but their losses have been ugly.  The Redskins hvae a proven playmaker in RG3 and have fared about the same as Pittsburgh with a tougher schedule, but the defense allows opponents to stay in it every week, and Chris Cooley is going to be a rusty replacement for injured TE Fred Davis.  By way of coin toss, the Redskins have it.

New York Giants (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
Here's a rivalry that never disappoints.  I would make it my Lady Blitz Game of the Week, but these two already had that distinction in Week 1, so I'm spreading the wealth.  It should be noted that Tony Romo always plays lights out versus the Giants, against whom he's posted some of his highest passer ratings.  But New York has been in rare form for the most part since Dallas crashed their Super Bowl party the first time around this year.  I expect the high-flying Giants to capitalize on the Cowboys' continuing mistakes this weekend under the jumbotrons of Arlington.  Plus, New York absolutely needs this game to avoid going 1 - 3 in the division, and you know how these Road Warriors do with their backs against the wall.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

I consider this the intriguing matchup of an underperformer and an overperformer, respectively.  Tampa almost stole one from New Orleans on Sunday with outstanding play from Josh Freeman and Vincent Jackson.  The Vikings have surprised just about everyone this year with vast improvements on defense and a remarkably speedy Adrian Peterson comeback.  There are a variety of reasons that both teams could win or lose this game, but there's just one thing I know for sure: Do not bet against the home team on Thursday night.  Home teams are 5 - 1 this year, the one loss going to the Carolina Panthers and Mr. Suggestion Box himself, Cam Newton.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2.5) 

This game is about one thing: the run.  Miami's rushing attack is very productive and its defense is among the best in the NFL with rush yards allowed.  Add to all of this that the Dolphins are hot coming off a bye, and you've got a winning formula at the Meadowlands: 1) shut down Shonne Greene early and often; 2) force Mark Sanchez to throw his way into disaster; 3) wear down the Jets defense with Reggie Bush before letting Ryan Tannehill loose.  Never thought I'd say it but I got big hopes for these Dolphins, at least this week.

New England Patriots (-7) at St. Louis Rams

The Rams have risen to the middle of the pack this year through solid defensive play while the Patriots have struggled against tough defenses (Seahawks, Cardinals, healthy Ravens).  I think this would be a surprisingly tight contest if the Rams had the chance to play this home game at home, but unfortunately they must sacrifice their competitive edge to the NFL's misguided attempt at globalization in the annual London game.  Then again, all the circadian disruptions could throw another wrench in the Patriots' offensive rhythm, so what do I know?  Mostly that Tom Brady gives his team a chance to win far more often than not.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Have the Titans really improved all that much in the past couple of weeks, or is this a function of playing some lowly teams (Steelers, Bills) with many question marks of their own right now?  As for Indy, can they finally lock down a win on the road with the same fight they've shown at home this year?  It's close, but Chris Johnson looked scary good last week, and the Colts' run defense does not.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.4) at Arizona Cardinals

We've really got ourselves a House Punch game here, but I'll give the Cardinals one more chance to redeem their hot early-season start here after going 0 - 3 since.  Of course, we've also learned over the past couple of weeks that San Francisco can be very vulnerable against good defenses like Arizona, so an upset is not out of the question.  But with the Niners having extra rest, more balance and the opportunity to destroy John Skelton this weekend, an upset is virtually out of the question.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-7.5)
There just isn't much to say about this one.  Unless Cam Newton gets a visit from Clarence of It's a Wonderful Life this week, Chicago should have a defensive rout on its hands much like last week and the week before that and the week before that...

San Diego Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has a lot of reasons to win this game: the off-field distractions for the Chargers, the timing advantage of playing an early EDT game, Brandon Weeden's continued improvement week to week.  I hope it happens, but good teams find ways to win consistently and the Browns aren't quite there yet.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-2)
Calvin Johnson versus the Seattle secondary.  I love the concept, but this one really shouldn't even be close unless Russell Wilson hands the ball to Detroit's defense on a silver platter.  Then again, it might be ruled a touchdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14)
It's just not fair that Green Bay gets two bye weeks.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-2)
These two teams are a collective 3 - 9 on the year.  Yech.  At best, we could see Carson Palmer's emerging no-huddle offense against Jamaal Charles' big run game.  At worst, we could see two teams doing their best to rip defeat from the jaws of victory.  I've picked the Chiefs entirely on a whim that 1) they've had a bye week and are playing at home; and 2) the Raiders couldn't even put the Jaguars away in regulation last week without even having to deal with Maurice Jones-Drew.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 9 - 4
Season Record: 66 - 38

Week 7 Recap and Why a QB MVP Would Be a Sham This Year

Ah the fickle fortunes of football picks.  Last week, if you had picked the Vegas favorite to win outright, you would have gone 5 - 9.  This week, you would have gone 12 - 1.  I took a chance on a few underdogs in Week 7, and while none of them panned out, none of them got eviscerated by the competition either.  I think this week will go down as a pretty ho-hum one in the grand scheme of things, but a week of any football is better than one with no football at all, especially in the sports fan Eden of October.

Here's your Week 7 Recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: Why a QB MVP Would Be a Sham This Year. But first, the good stuff:

Week 7: The Good Stuff

• The Steelers' Next Man Up - I hope I'm not overreacting since they only beat the Bengals this weekend, but I was very impressed with the Steelers' resiliency this weekend after an agonizing loss to the Titans in Week 6.  It's not simply that they beat Cincy, it's how they beat Cincy.  Pittsburgh has suffered major injuries to its starting offensive line, running backs and secondary over the course of the early season, so I figured mediocre Cincinnati would finally take advantage of a reeling Iron Curtain, even if it was ugly.  Turns out, these cats put up over 150 rushing yards, shut Andy Dalton and friends down in the second half and controlled the clock for a whopping 37 minutes (15 more minutes than the Bengals if you don't want to do the head math).  The score didn't necessarily show it, but Pittsburgh dominated this game through means I absolutely didn't anticipate.  With Baltimore in panic mode, we may be due for a big shake up in the AFC North.

• Joe Morgan's TD Catch - Just watch it; no words necessary for this rookie highlight reel... of one awesome play.
• The Baseball Giants' Pennant Win - I know, I know, it's not football, but while Matt Stafford was busy getting coronated with sod at Soldier Field, I was flipping back and forth to Game 7 of the NLCS.  The Giants had the game firmly in hand by the bottom of the 3rd, so it wasn't a nail-biter by any stretch, but I so loved watching them close it out in the 9th in the midst of a monsoon.  Normally those MLB wimps shut things down with the first speck of mud, but they let this one go to put the poor Cardinals out of their misery.  You don't see that every day.
• Nailed It: My Best Week 7 Prediction - Nothing extraordinary in the Lady Blitz prophecies this time around, though it's good to be back above 0.500, so here's to Houston's continued traction at the top of the AFC:
• "Even if the Ravens had not lost Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb to season-ending injuries, this upcoming rumble with the Texans would still be an uphill battle for Baltimore.  They just haven't been able to defend the run this year against much less formidable rushing teams...  This is exactly how Houston is built to win games."

Week 7: The Bad Stuff

• Sunday Afternoon Game Scheduling - I'm sure there's a horribly self-interested reason that the NFL insisted on scheduling 8 games in the 12pm (CDT) slot and a paltry 2 games in the 3pm slot on Sunday.  We went from the sensory overload extravaganza of the Giants-Redskins/Saints-Buccaneers/Bills-Titans down-to-the-wire shootouts of mid-day to a painfully quiet two-game schedule in mere minutes.  Sunday Ticket owners should be wringing their hands over this kind of feast and famine.  True, both of the later games went to overtime, but one of them was the freakin' Raiders and Jaguars.  You know, that game where the Raiders couldn't even get close to putting the Jaguars away in regulation without Maurice Jones-Drew or Blaine Gabbert (ok, I get it).  I give a lot of credit to the Jets and Patriots for keeping the rivalry more than serviceable despite New England being a 10.5-point favorite, but there wasn't even any bowling or lumberjack games on ESPN 2 to turn to when we went to half time.  Le sigh.
• The Lions' Red Zone Allergy - Oh sweet Jeebus.  I didn't think that Detroit would be able to steal one in Chicago last night, but it must be absolutely infuriating to be a Lions fan and watch your team waste three separate trips to the Red Zone on turnovers. And "bear" in mind (I know) that Chicago put up only 13 points, so either 2 TDs or a TD and 2 FGs would have at least tied it up despite being totally outplayed for the entire game.  Yes, the Bears are the real deal and I'm loving that ferocious defense, but the Lions were downright painful to watch.  I even started to feel sorry for Matt Stafford even though his chin stubble is hideous.
• Cam Newton's Sweater - I already touched on Cam Newton's serious attitude problem in the midst of his sophomore slump a few weeks ago, so no need to pile on the self-righteousness at this juncture.  Plus, he gave us plenty of new fodder on Sunday with this freakin' avalanche of knitted wool, which will now serve as the world's most expensive potato sack.  Is it a subliminal message for Panthers fans to start wearing paper bags?  I think so.  

• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 7 Prediction - Oh sure, this is the week Chris Johnson finally decides to be worth his teeth and gold.  Definitely did not see the Titans coming back in such a wild fashion in Buffalo with the stakes so different for these two teams:
• "Buffalo has looked mighty good against the bottom of the AFC barrel with big wins over the Chiefs and Browns.  With the AFC East crown still [surprisingly] well within reach, Buffalo should be plenty motivated to take advantage of Tennessee's many woes on both sides of the ball."

Week 7 Feature: Why a QB MVP Would Be a Sham This Year

I know it's way too early to have this conversation, and truthfully, I care only slightly more about the annual NFL player awards than I do about the Canadian Oscars (the Genies, if you will).  But there's no clear front runner for the traditional MVP in my mind so far this year, so here's a few thoughts about why it shouldn't be another freakin' quarterback in 2012:

• Aaron Rodgers' 2011 Performance Deserves Some Serious Respect - Last year was the kind of legendary year for Aaron Rodgers that we'll still be talking about ten years from now.  Man put up 45 TDs to 6 INTs to the tune of a record-setting passer rating of 122.5 for the season.  Even Aaron Rodgers isn't outdoing himself at this point this year-- he leads the league with 19 TDs and a 109+ passer rating.  That means he'll need to play nearly perfectly in the Packers remaining 9 games to get close to where he was this time last year.  There are some very good passers in 2012 to be sure, but everyone looks like a dwarf compared to Rodgers last year. We need at least a year of critical distance from that historic performance before we can go back to worshiping the almighty passer.
• There's Too Much Parity This Year - A still-bigger factor in why the MVP shouldn't be awarded to a quarterback this year is that almost no one is winning the way the Packers were in 2011, which certainly played a huge role in Rodgers' MVP status.  Green Bay had the league's best record in the regular season at 15 - 1.  Only Houston, Chicago or Atlanta could possibly get there this year, and while all should easily have double digits worth of wins in December, I just don't see it happening.  Perennial QB darlings Brady, Brees, Rogers and Manning(s) all got off to slow starts this year and have had at least a taste of a losing record and individually poor games.  As for Houston and Chicago, these teams' success is built on a much more balanced foundation than their QBs, so it would be a farce to consider Schaub or Cutler most valuable to their teams.  As for Atlanta, many say that Matt Ryan is the MVP front-runner, given his early-season lead in passer rating and that the Falcons are the league's only remaining undefeated team.  While Ryan is having a career year, he's tossed 6 INTs in his past two games, which were much closer than they should have been (vs. Panthers and Raiders), and the Falcons have only played one team with a winning record (yep, the Chargers) so far.  Point being, Ryan is still untested at this point and the rest of the passer pack is catching up.
• Virtually No Other Positions Are Ever Acknowledged - You know, it's a real wonder the NFL MVP pageantry is so vastly inferior to college's Heisman Trophy, the main reason being there's no mystery these days-- it's always whatever quarterback has the most relatively freakish year ("Relatively" being the operative word). We've only had two non-quarterback winners in the last decade and none within the last five years.  If you take running backs out of the equation, you have to go back to 1986 when Lawrence Taylor (linebacker and extraordinary life decision-maker) accepted the award for any more variability.  Sure, I get that it's nearly impossible to drum up the kinds of individually-oriented stats for other players that quarterbacks have in their portfolios, but these kind of trends show just how lazy and thoughtless the whole MVP distinction is.  So in conclusion, if I had my druthers, I think the NFL voters should take a good hard look at Houston Texans defensive end J. J. Watt.  This second-year terror already has 9.5 sacks, 34 tackles and 10 blocked passes and we're not even halfway through this season.  The blocked pass numbers are particularly astounding because 1) Watt is already just 1 short of tying the all-time record; 2) these things have created a wealth of turnovers for the Texas defense like this one and they are making offenses scramble for different game plans; and 3) his athletic, disruptive style of play may fundamentally change this very passer-happy game in a couple more years.  Will a Watt MVP happen? No.  Should it? It's still too early to say, but I'm all for it.  Variety is the spice of non-NFL-awards life.

Week 7 Picks for Every NFL Game

If picks were baseball, I'd barely be edging out Alex Rodriguez this past week.  Longitudinally, it was bound to happen, and Vegas certainly didn't do much better, but it's time to move on to the jelly filling in the center of the NFL season.  Like a good financial advisor, I'm trying to think long-term performance instead of the blips of crazy upswings and downturns we experienced last week, so here's to virtually nowhere to go but up.  These are my Week 7 Picks for Every NFL Game:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
I didn't see this coming at the beginning of the season, but this Thursday night clash of our NFC West evil twins is the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  These two teams' fortunes were starkly different in Week 6, but the real questions here are 1) whether or not the 49ers offense has been totally exposed after lopsided losses to the Vikings and Giants; and 2) whether or not Russell Wilson's inconceivable comeback against the Patriots was a fluke or the true turn of a corner for the rookie QB.  There's probably a little bit of columns A and B in both cases, which should make things a little scarier for San Francisco tonight, but there's also the counterpoint that the Seahawks haven't played nearly as consistently well away from home and must shorten this week even more to travel to Candlestick.  Under different timing and location circumstances, the Seahawks should have the upper hand but my gut says the Niners will take it in Round 1.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6)
The Redskins and Giants have both impressed in the early leg of the season with two of the top five offenses in the NFL.  Now comes another big test with their first divisional face-off of the 2012 season.  As amazing as the Giants have looked for the past couple of weeks, I don't know if they are out of the woods yet.  This is the kind of game they tend to slump into and Washington has been a very tough matchup for the Giants for a long time.  This time, they have the fire power in RG3 to come out on top.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Even if the Ravens had not lost Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb to season-ending injuries on Sunday, this upcoming rumble with the Texans would still be an uphill battle for Baltimore.  They just haven't been able to defend the run this year against much less formidable rushing teams.  Methinks the Texans will exploit that Achilles Heel to no end with the likes of Arian Foster and Ben Tate this weekend.  This is exactly how Houston is built to win games, and they should rebound very nicely with Baltimore on its heels.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5)
I don't really know who the Patriots are at this point in the season, but I do know who the Jets are.  True, they've done better than some have expected adjusting to the loss of Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes so far, but I suspect they've already pulled all of the Tebow-switching, Cromartie-wide-outing, fake punting tricks that Bill Belichick will be happy (if he is capable of such an emotion) to kill upon impact.  Plus, as the Buffalo Bills can attest from Week 4, you just don't want to play an angry Tom Brady.  He must be all too willing to transfer the humiliations that Seahawks CB Richard Sherman bestowed upon him to the Jets from the comfort of Foxboro.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oy. Sean Payton or not, the Saints always seem to drop one against the Buccaneers, which will make for a tough road opponent on Sunday.  I will say now that I probably should go with Tampa on this one, but my dumb heart just won't let me.  New Orleans has had a bye week to mull over Greg Schiano's system, make some more defensive adjustments, and let an achy but productive offense get back to better health.  If the Saints can contain the Martin/Blount tandem just enough to force Josh Freeman into another inconsistent performance, they should squeak by with the grace of St. Breesus this time.  That's a big if though.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams

Aaron Rodgers' monster Sunday night performance aside, this game still comes down to which Packers team will show up in St. Louis this weekend.  I hate to say it but Houston just made it look way too easy for Green Bay in Week 6 with big injuries all over the Packers roster.  All things considered, I think the Packers figured enough things out last week to win this one, but an underrated Rams defense will make them work for every point in a close game.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-6)

Weirdly enough, I might have taken a chance on the Cardinals again this week if Kevin Kolb was playing.  Really.  But in this duel of NFL October Surprises, I like the Vikings.  They are way more balanced, playing at home, and free from worrying about any productive scrambling whatsoever from John Skelton.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals aren't looking as solid as I projected they would at the beginning of the season, but the Steelers aren't even close to fine right now.  This pick will probably come back to haunt me since Pittsburgh always seems to have Cincy's number, but with the Steelers' starters dropping like flies, perhaps the Bengals won't be playing the same team this time around.  Heaven help Andy Dalton have a smart football game.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6)

How about them Bears?  They have looked nearly unstoppable since that embarrassing Week 2 performance against the Packers.  Meanwhile, the Lions have bet the farm on the Stafford-Johnson connection each week with very uneven results.  Look for a fresh-off-the-bye Chicago defense to take full advantage of Detroit's alarming lack of balance to keep the mojo going in the NFC North.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3)
Even with the extra rest and a hard-fought victory at home last week, the Titans just don't look like they've made it to the middle of the pack the way the Bills arguably have.  After all, it took two big injuries to the Steelers' already struggling O-Line and some very questionable play-calling by Mike Tomlin to put the Titans in a position to win, which closely resembled their only other win so far this year against the Lions, if you recall.  Chan Gailey's certainly not above calling bone-headed plays either, but Buffalo has looked mighty good against the bottom of the AFC barrel with big wins over the Chiefs and Browns.  With the AFC East crown still [surprisingly] well within reach, Buffalo should be plenty motivated to take advantage of Tennessee's many woes on both sides of the ball.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Carolina Panthers
Hoo boy.  There's no reason the Panthers should win this game except that they are playing the Cowboys and they are coming off a bye at home.  In my mind, that makes things about even.  On paper, Dallas looks like a great team-- the offense puts up big numbers and the defense is surprisingly stingy, but the mental mistakes and coaching tragedies continue to ruin this team's many opportunities to win.  The Panthers haven't look good on paper or in reality at all this year, but given the home field advantage, the bye week, and what I suspect will be some major adjustments in the game plan for Carolina, I think they can edge out the hopelessly hapless Cowboys.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
So Andrew Luck and a red-headed stepchild rookie QB are facing off in Indy on Sunday?  This is a sneaky game to pick.  The Browns have been in just about every game they've played this season and should be feeling more confident after securing their first win in Cincinnati last weekend.  The Colts have oscillated between hot and cold like Katy Perry with avian flu.  But if there's a pattern I'm noticing with the Colts, it's that 1) they haven't had consecutive wins or losses yet; and 2) they have played much better against teams with terrible pass defenses, which will now include the Cleveland Browns.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4)
Oakland probably had the most respectable loss of any team in Week 6, going toe-to-toe with the undefeated Falcons on East Coast time for 58 minutes or so.  Of course, that may be more symptomatic of Atlanta's recent struggles than it is of a mediocre Raiders squad gaining momentum.  While this game could be closer than we might think, Oakland, like all NFL teams, is still better than Jacksonville.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 5 - 9
Season Record: 57 - 34

Week 6 Recap and 5 Reasons Why This May Have Been the Strangest Week in NFL History

Oh buddy.  What goes up must come down indeed.  I reeeaaallly stunk it up with my Week 6 picks this time (5 - 9), and so did a lot of teams that have cooled down after very impressive starts.  High-flying San Francisco, Houston and Minnesota came crashing down to Earth while struggling teams like Cleveland, Tennessee and Detroit scraped themselves off the bottom of the barrel for a spell.  It's just another week in the NFL and I have an ego to nurse as I long for better predictions ahead in Week 7.

Here's your Week 6 Recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: Why This May Have Been the Strangest Week in NFL History. But first, the good stuff:

Week 6: The Good Stuff

• NYG: Road Warriors - In my Week 6 predictions, I alluded to Tom Coughlin's ability to mobilize his "Road Warrior" Giants to contend with their toughest opponents away from home.  Sunday was no different.  New York absolutely showed up against a team that had blown out its previous two opponents by a score of 79 - 3.  Not only did the Giants show up, they created a bizarro world in which Alex Smith tripled his interceptions for the year, Ahmad Bradshaw became the first RB in 3 years to put up over 100 yards and a TD against SF, golden-toed David Akers missed what is normally a chump change field goal AND the Niners had zero sacks.  Definitely did not see that one coming, but credit New York for pulling off a huge win when they really needed it to stay on top of their division and near the top of the NFC.  They may well have San Francisco's number in the playoffs the way things are going.
• Russell Wilson's Redemption - There were a lot of great games that went down to the wire this week including last minute field goals [and shanks] in Tennessee, Atlanta and Baltimore and two overtime contests in Arizona and Philadelphia.  (I lost three out of five of those picks plus the one I'm featuring here, which makes me feel ever-so-slightly better, since these were pretty much coin tosses in the end.)  But the most exciting action we saw this time had to be the Patriots-Seahawks duel in Seattle.  Let this be a lesson to us all, by the way, that you should never bet against the 'Hawks at home.  They just find ways to win-- exceptional defensive stops and special teams, Opposite Day officiating, or this time around, Russell Wilson's unbelievable Hail Mary redemption on the hands of Sydney Rice.  The Seahawks trailed by 23 - 10 at one point in the fourth quarter, but Wilson proved to be the better quarterback, at least in the final minutes of this nail-biter.  

• The Return of Aaron Rodgers - For all of my analysis in recent weeks about the Packers' struggles and mouthiness, my hat is off to Aaron Rodgers & co. after a lights-out Sunday night performance against the now-slightly-less-formidable Texans.  No. 12 put up 6 TDs, no picks and over 400 yards (passing and rushing).  All of this with major injuries in the rushing and receiving corps and after weeks of very human-looking performance.  If anyone thought Green Bay's ship was sinking before this week, it's time to look for shelter on the bandwagon.  They just replaced Rodgers' batteries.
• Nailed It!: My Best Week 6 Prediction - There is no room to gloat this week--my first with a sub-0.500 record--so in an attempt to save a molecule of face, I sort of saw my own demise coming:
• "After two weeks of excellent picking (13 - 2; 11 - 3), I fear that what goes up must come down.  I found myself second-guessing on many games this week, which is usually only a good sign if you're playing Russian roulette.  The other bad omen is that once I cross-referenced my picks with Vegas odds, I was almost entirely in line with them. Yikes.

• But to be slightly more fair to myself in the long run, I did call this little gem back in Week 3:
• "If I had to bet which team would go undefeated the longest in 2012, I would unquestioningly pick the Atlanta Falcons."

Week 6: The Bad Stuff

• The Texans' Chippy Shoulders - Holy crap, the Texans.  I still think this will end up being the team to beat in the AFC come January, but they looked like long-horned boneheads against Green Bay on Sunday night.  Example: In the third quarter, they looked like they would limit the Packers to a field goal and [not once but] twice, extended the play with completely uncalled-for personal fouls that eventually led to a touchdown.  There was a similar outcome in the first quarter when Houston jumped off-sides on a Green Bay punt.  Of course, the Texans probably would have lost this game anyway even if they were on their best behavior since Aaron Rodgers put on a vintage 133.8 passer rating clinic, but Houston is really going to have to toughen up against its better opponents down the stretch to stay on top.  With Baltimore, Chicago and New England coming up, it ain't gonna get any easier to keep a cool head.

• Baltimore's Health Woes - To this point, the Ravens have done better than I expected they would without Terrell Suggs' Gums of Terror on defense.  But that all changed today with season-ending injuries to Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb that could spell real trouble for the Ravens.  Since these guys are my B-Team when the Saints aren't doing it (which is now), I hope I am very wrong, but a total collapse isn't out of the question if the offense doesn't find more consistency ASAP.
• Bountygate: A Zombie the Saints Won't Let Die - For all of the talk the Saints roster has had about not talking about the Bounty Scandal, they sure like to talk about it.  In a weird way, I was actually looking forward to this part of the season because most of the player suspensions would have run their course and the whole issue was supposed to fade into the background as NOLA's record (for better or worse) would speak for itself.  Instead, here we are six weeks in with the same guys contesting the same accusations and all of the same headlines are rearing their ugly heads again.  I'm particularly tired of Drew Brees' now-weekly rants of self-righteousness about this whole issue.  If he supposedly knows nothing about a bounty system taking place, what else is there to say about it?  I think we can all agree at this point that whatever happened in the Saints' locker room under Gregg Williams wasn't a prayer circle and that there's a point at which you just have to accept what's coming to you so that your team can adjust and move on.  Perhaps ironically, all of the active players in question except Jonathan Vilma would have been done with their suspensions by now if they had just done that very thing. Instead, the inevitable has no longer been delayed and we've got a lot more talk than wins, sympathy or credibility on our hands. 
• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 6 Prediction - This is an Embarrassment of Riches of sorts.  I'm looking forward to going nowhere but up in Week 7, so my best-worst pick of Week 6 would have to be my Eagles-Lions one.  It was right in its wrongness in that at least I cursed the Eagles for their continually sloppy play and undeserved winning record:
• "I hate even trying to pick this game.  I pretty much feel like no matter who I pick, the other team will win for reasons I won't be happy about.  So luck be a lady to the stupid Philadelphia Eagles at home.  May this be your playoffs kiss of death."

Week 6 Feature: 5 Reasons Why This May Have Been the Strangest Week in NFL History
I don't have a lot to get into this week.  To be honest, I just ran out of time and said most of what I needed to say above.  And being a self-absorbed blogger, I'm simply not enjoying eating crow over all of my very wrong picks this week.  So here are a bunch of excuses in the form of why this may have been the strangest week in NFL history:

1. 9 underdogs won outright this week with a 64% success rate.  Another two beat the spread (79%).  In other words, most gamblers would have done incredibly well to bet the exact opposite of their intuition this past week.
2. 7 games were decided by 3 points or less and nearly all of them came down to the final minute of regulation or overtime.  4 of them experienced a lead change in the late fourth quarter or overtime. 
3. Ray Lewis may retire.  We always knew the day would come when 17-year NFL veteran Ray Lewis would hang up the cleats and Old Spice for good, but it may be upon us a lot more suddenly that we imagined.  Lewis has torn triceps and will be out for the remainder of the season.  I hate to say it, but we may have seen the last of this Hall of Famer on the field.
4. The elites were shaken up.  As I've touched on at several points above, nothing's sacred at this point as far as elite teams are concerned.  Everyone including the sole undefeated Falcons has looked vulnerable and inconsistent at multiple junctures in the season so far.  Who could have seen the routs against the 49ers and the Texans coming?  Or Russell Wilson out-dueling Tom Brady? Or conversely, Aaron Rodgers' and Peyton Manning's meteoric rise back to insanely good?  We ain't seen nothing yet.  And hey, this may all mean there's ever the slightest chance that a pitiful 1 - 4 team in the NFC South could squeak into a wild card spot.  ...OK, I'll stop.
5. The Broncos comeback was historic.  If there was one game that symbolized this weekend and the miserable fate of my picks, it would have to be the Monday night tilt between the Chargers and the Broncos.  "Phew," I thought at halftime, "With San Diego up 24 - 0, at least I ended things on a good note this week.  What could possibly go wrong?"  Little did I know a trailing team could not only match that score but end up winning by double digits.  It's actually the first time that has ever happened.  Yes, Peyton Manning deserves a ton of credit for keeping his team in an impossible game with his foot on the no-huddle gas.  But let's not overlook the Chargers' uncanny ability to implode completely on a regular basis, carried out to perfection last night.  Phillip Rivers coughed up four interceptions and two fumbles before the night was over.  You know it's bad when putting any third string backup (Charlie Whitehurst? Anyone?) in for 30 minutes probably would have given you a better chance to win.  Just unbelievable.  Also, I hope Philip Rivers' face stays this way permanently:

 

Week 6 Picks for Every NFL Game

After two weeks of excellent picking (13 - 2; 11 - 3), I fear that what goes up must come down.  I found myself second-guessing on many games this week, which is usually only a good sign if you're playing Russian roulette.  The other bad omen is that once I cross-referenced my picks with Vegas odds, I was almost entirely in line with them. Yikes.  On the bright side, hopefully that also means we're in for some exciting competitions this week and fewer blowouts.  Here are my Week 6 Picks for Every NFL Game:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
As if there was any question, our 2011-12 NFC Championship rematch is the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  However, this game looks to be anything but the one that happened last January.  The Giants' pass rush has been outright tame lately compared to what it was during that improbable Super Bowl run.  Meanwhile, the 49ers offensive performance has looked remarkably on par with its defense this season thanks in large part to a much improved passing game from Alex Smith.  Tom Coughlin generally does a great job of preparing his Road Warriors for their toughest opponents, and they need this one way more than San Francisco does.  But Jim Harbaugh is all too eager to strike vengeance and bloodlust in the hearts of San Francisco to stay at the top of the NFC.  The Niners get the edge.

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Judging by the Cowboys' last performance (Tony Romo's 5 interception spectacular against the Bears), this may be a Well Drink game in actuality, but a bye week has an interesting way with team performance.  Just ask freshly-rested Week 5 winners Pittsburgh and Indianapolis.  Baltimore's weak performance in Kansas City on Sunday was more than a little concerning, but I still think they will be the better team at home against a severely struggling Dallas offense.

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
If my spidey senses are right, we are in for at least three quarters of a real treat this week in Seattle between the NFL's top-ranked offense and defense.  The clash of conferences, philosophical approaches and coaching apparel could be a game for the ages if the Seahawks can send Tom Brady into fits with that mean pass rush and secondary.  Still, as much as I've enjoyed rooting for the scrappy 'Hawks so far this season, Russell Wilson just hasn't demonstrated that he can go toe-to-toe with an offense like that of the Patriots.  Sooner or later, Tom Brady will step on the gas and leave Wilson and the 12th Man in the dust.

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5)
This could be a pretty wild game.  The Texans eked out a win against the tail-spun New York Jets on Monday but they have a short week ahead and a Brian Cushing-sized hole to fill on defense.  The Packers lost a heartbreaker in Indianapolis last Sunday that could either create a very productive sense of urgency or send their morale into the abyss.  With Cedric Benson's injury pointing to even less of a run game for Green Bay, I really like the Texans' chances here.  J. J. Watt should have a field day swatting down Aaron Rodgers' passes of desperation for 60 minutes.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-1.5)
While I'm not particularly enthused with either of these teams' performances so far in 2012, this is definitely the biggest divisional matchup of the week so it goes on the Top Shelf.  Neither the Broncos nor the Chargers have looked very good against their higher-profile opponents this year, but I think the Chargers have more of an identity on both sides of the ball than the Broncos do right now.  And maybe some better officiating karma will come their way after last Sunday's loss to the Saints... not that I'm complaining about that.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Tennessee Titans

I sincerely wish I could put this game on the Top Shelf since the Steelers and the Titans have kindled a pretty nice AFC rivalry ever since Terrible Towel Stop-Gate 2008.  For that history alone, I'll keep this one in the Well Drink bucket, but I think this Steelers will have this game well in control the way Tennessee has played so far this year.  The real question is what the over-under on attendance will look like at LP Field on Thursday with Tennessee's fast-sinking playoff hopes.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5)

This is a mighty road test for the rising Indianapolis Colts.  Sure, the Jets have fallen flat for the most part this year, but they threw everything but the kitchen sink at the much better Houston Texans last week almost came away with a win.  And as we've seen on more than one occasion in sports, unlikely triumphs like the Colts' comeback against the Packers are hard to sustain.  They tend to give a few teams a temporary boost with new confidence while draining many others of the energy to fight the same fight next week.  The Colts are destined for a better long-term future than the Jets, but New York will be playing a desperation-style of football that can be very hard to contain, no matter Indy's momentum.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)

Hoo boy, talk about two volatile, mistake-prone teams. One has been able to survive through Week 5 with a winning record in spite of turnovers in the double digits; the other has been punched in the gut most weeks with sloppy special teams play and questionable coaching [and a Madden curse].  I hate even trying to pick this game.  I pretty much feel like no matter who I pick, the other team will win for reasons I won't be happy about.  So luck be a lady to the stupid Philadelphia Eagles at home.  May this be your playoffs kiss of death.

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Just as we had to challenge our perceptions about the Arizona Cardinals' capabilities early on this season, I'm going to start putting a little more faith in the Miami Dolphins this week.  While not the highest-profile rookie quarterback in this loaded 2012 class, Ryan Tannehill seems to have gotten enough footing to compete with your average NFL bears (or Rams).  Plus, despite a big divisional win last week, St. Louis suffered a bigger blow with WR Danny Amendola's collarbone injury that will have a huge impact on offensive production.  Miami is primed to strike while the iron's hot.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2)

I'm hoping for a quick but safe recovery for Robert Griffin III after that awful-looking concussion this past Sunday against the Falcons because that certainly would make this game more exciting.  The Redskins have parted ways with the lonesomest kicker Billy Cundiff, but that still doesn't change the fact that Washington has dropped 7 straight games at home and that Minnesota has risen to a new level of competition this year.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
So Kansas City's secret armchair GM with way too much time and money on his/her hands got at least half of his/her wish.  The Chiefs will release the Kraken--err, Brady Quinn--on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend while Matt Cassel sits out with a concussion.  Brady Quinn.  What a delightful snack for Tampa Bay coming off of their bye week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Cleveland Browns
Didn't we just see this episode? If I'm not mistaken, this Cincy-Cleveland game will be the first divisional rematch of the 2012 season.  Cleveland is looking hungrier for a win by the week, but I still like the Bengals in this one.  The Browns simply have yet to prove me wrong.

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9)
Atlanta's white-hot start may have cooled down a bit with two fairly close games in two weeks, but Oakland doesn't know the meaning of a white-hot start.  The Falcons will keep the franchise's longest opening win streak alive for another week to go 6 - 0.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
Oy. This would have looked like a very good matchup after Week 3, but the Bills have allowed 97 points in their past two games. So much for Super Mario and Buffalo's defensive "upgrades." Granted they had to face the Patriots and the 49ers on the road, which I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy (OK, maybe the Falcons), BUT you know your team's in trouble when your own coach airs your dirty laundry like Chan Gailey did in Sunday's press conference.  If he was worried about quitters before, you bet he'll have plenty to worry about now.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 3
Season Record: 52 - 25

Week 5 Recap and What Should We Think of the Packers?

Saints fans, wipe those brows.  At least we aren't the Cleveland Browns.  I had the pleasure of spending my New Orleans football time with my good friend Erin in Seattle this weekend, which happened to coincide with our struggling team's very first tick in the win column.  It was a game of fortune as much as it was of skill, but I think this was an important hill for the team to climb that will hopefully lead to at least a more balanced record moving forward... Even if there's plenty of room for improvement and a lot of favorable calls coming the Saints' way lately that won't likely repeat.

It was also another solid week in the Lady Blitz picks, as I went 11 - 3 in Week 5.  Here's your Week 5 Recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: What Should We Think of the Packers?  But first, the good stuff:

Week 5: The Good Stuff

• The Cardiac Colts - I was only able to catch the first half of the early games on Sunday, meaning I was off the grid with the safe assumption that the Packers had already put the Colts away early with a 21 - 3 lead.  Imagine my surprise when I saw the final score.  Would that I could have seen that magical second half for Andrew Luck and company because it is hard to imagine, especially with Aaron Rodgers putting up very decent numbers too.  Of course, Green Bay suffered some big injuries that couldn't have helped their cause, but kudos to Indy for punching adversity in the face.  Although I cannot say for sure this game was on par with those all-time great steep hill performances--Jordan's NBA championship flu game, Brett Favre's Monday Night in mourning, et al--there can be no doubt that Indy made Coach Chuck Pagano proud.  Here's to a quick recovery and the rise of a rookie quarterback living up to impossible expectations.

• The 49ers' Offensive Explosion - Other than maybe the Texans, I don't know that there is a more formidable team in the NFL right now than the San Francisco 49ers.  Granted they were only playing the Bills, which might soon make the Saints defense look 31st in competence, but the Niners set a new franchise record in total offense (621 yards) that was impressive by any measure.  AND they've only allowed 3 points in the last 2 games.  With the two halves of the amulet coming together like this, San Francisco looks like the team to beat in the NFC.  Also, is it me or is Alex Smith starting to follow the Matt Ryan trajectory from efficient and conservative to efficient and explosive?
• Drew Brees' Record-Setting Night - I won't spend a ton of time on this one since I am oh-so-self-conscious about making this more of a Saints blog than I intended, but many congratulations to Drew Brees and New Orleans for breaking Johnny Unitas' 52-year record for TD passes in consecutive games (now at 48 and counting).  I'm glad he did it in style too, putting up 370 yards and 4 TD passes in all.  Marques Colston and Devery Henderson returned the favor Brees often bestows--they made him look spectacular, gaining over 100 yards a piece in the process.  It was definitely a long-awaited feelgood night for this fan.
• Nailed It! My Best Week 5 Prediction: This one goes out to my Giants-Browns prediction, which proved prophetic in the details.  The Browns really looked to give the Giants a run for their money by jumping out to an early 14 - 0 lead, but then Cleveland came crashing back down to Earth swiftly after Brandon Weeden coughed up a nasty pick before halftime:
• "This is just the kind of game that the New York Giants often find a way to lose, so if I were a betting gal, I'd say Big Blue won't cover the spread.  However, the Browns still haven't proven themselves to be primed enough to take advantage of a major upset opportunity like this.  They should beat themselves on Sunday if the Giants won't do it for them."

Week 5: The Bad Stuff

• The Freakin' Eagles... Again - Without going back through the annals just yet, I'd be willing to bet that the Eagles are responsible for some of my worst game predictions so far this season.  Yes, they are responsible.  The only thing I needed to see on Sunday to confirm this was Michael Vick's fumble at the goal line against the Steelers.  Honestly, how is it possible that a man who has already lost 6 fumbles in a mere 4 weeks could be so completely unable--or unwilling--to learn simple ball security?!?!?!  It's roughly 75% of a quarterback's job.  Philly fans should start sweating about where this team is headed.  Whereas most veteran coaches would absolutely consider benching Vick at this point, Andy Reid will not.  It's part of his "Where's my staplerrr?" charm.
• Cam Newton's Sophomore Slump - After five weeks, I think we can call it official.  Cam Newton is not looking like his gloating rookie self these days, and you really have to question his mental resilience going forward in 2012.  At one point in the 3rd quarter against the Seahawks on Sunday, Newton was 3 for 16 with less than 40 yards in passing.  Not for the quarter, the whole game.  This is not to discredit the Seahawks defense, which has more than lived up to the hype so far this season and made a fantastic goal line stand against the Panthers late in the 4th.  But Newton is just not playing nearly as consistently as many were hoping he would with a year of pro experience under his belt.  Even worse, the Gatorade towel sulk routine is getting just as tired as the Superman one.  It's time for this kid to drop the self-branding and focus on football.  Otherwise, Ryan Kalil is going to look like an absolute fool in the papers.  Oh wait.

• Snooze-Worthy Blowouts - There were a fair amount of exciting close games this weekend (re: the Colts/Packers shootout), but there were also some real stinkers in terms of parity in Week 5.  The Jaguars, Bills and Titans couldn't muster more than single digit scores and lost by a collective 16 - 116, but the biggest disappointment to me was [P.] Manning-Brady Bowl XIII.  In my mind at least, there was little question that the Pats would win this one, but for crying out loud, couldn't we have had just a little bit of suspense?  Just a little bit more "could they?" from Denver and some classic Manning two-minute scowls?  Just one Brady tongue-lashing for his wide receivers on the sidelines?  Every time the Broncos tried to get within a possession, the turnover gods would smite them and take us back to commercial.  It was so very underwhelming and yet oh so drawn out.  This one gets a Rotten Tomatoes 15%.
• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 5 Prediction - Of my 3 misses on Sunday, I'm not particularly ashamed of any of them.  The Eagles, as I explained above, really lost the game for themselves so I stand by the Steelers not actually being very good this year.  The Colts were a pleasant surprise and won in a shootout like I had hoped.  The Bengals and Dolphins are still mysteries to me, though I think Miami's stock is starting to go up, especially with the Jets and Bills looking pretty hapless these days.  So here's to keeping a closer bead on the Dolphins in the coming weeks:
• "I'm still not sure about what to think of the Miami Dolphins.  They've been competitive in most of their losses so far this year, but the lack of follow through still matters.  The Bengals on the other hand took that first week in Baltimore to heart in a more productive way and look to be a well-oiled machine at this point, at least against lesser teams.  Gotta go with Cincy's gumption on this one."

Week 5 Feature: What Should We Think of the Packers?
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  I can remember just a few weeks ago looking at all of the sports media picks for the postseason.  Nearly everyone had the Packers going to the Super Bowl and, for the most part, also winning it.  I myself fell into that same trap with my own picks.  But we are all only human and we watched Aaron Rodgers do some very superhuman things with the football last year.  With a 2 - 3 record, there's still plenty of reason to think that Green Bay can make the playoffs, but what should we think of the once-unstoppable Packers?  Here are three possible interpretations:

• The Quality of Wins and Losses - It's true that good teams just find ways to win football games (am I quoting John Madden with something mind-numbingly obvious?), but the Packers have experienced some idiosyncrasies in the early season that may not reflect their true worth.  They've lost to one elite team (the 49ers), one young and less talented team (the Colts), and well, there's that whole Seahawks Monday night adventure in replacement reffing that literally no one should consider an actual loss.  Heck, the Packers get bonus points for being martyrs to the cause in that case.  The Colts game was a shocker, but it is deceptively hard to play an emotional team that feels like they have a lot less to lose than an early Super Bowl favorite.  In terms of the Packers' wins, they stomped the Bears with style and overcame a Saints team that put up a lot of offense against them.  In other words, the wins may show more about the Packers' ability than their losses.  They have much less margin for error at this point, but that's the kind of motivation Coach McCarthy may need to get the best out of his best.

• The Achilles Heel of Imbalance - On the other hand, as I touched on in last week's feature about Joe Flacco (and apparently jinxed him for this week), the Packers have been exposed on more than one occasion in the past two years when Aaron Rodgers plays like a mortal.  When Green Bay has failed to put up more than 30 points, they have been in real trouble, especially in maintaining late leads in games.  The Packers defense showed early signs of improvement this season but they weren't exactly playing your typical offensive juggernauts.  They've looked far more vulnerable against heavy passing teams like the Saints and the Colts in the past two weeks, and this will continue to be an issue as the schedule goes on.  The run game is also looking quite troubling with even mediocre Cedric Benson potentially out for a while.  It is hard to imagine Green Bay being able to compete with the likes of the more balanced Falcons, 49ers or Bears if they make the playoffs under these circumstances, especially if the Packers do not secure home field advantage.
• The Victims of Statistical Anomaly - I do think elements of both arguments above are accurate about the Packers' situation.  However, the less dramatic but very important factor that few are talking about is just how insane Green Bay's statistical performance was last year and thus how unlikely it is to repeat itself this year.  Aaron Rodgers shattered the previous passer rating record by tossing 45 TDs and just 6 INTs in the 2011 regular season.  He's already thrown 4 interceptions in 5 weeks this year, which is more on par with his performance in other seasons. Of course, Rodgers is still extremely talented, but virtually no one in the history of the NFL has lived in that kind of QB nirvana state forever.  On the other side of the ball, the Packers defense of 2011 was never the most efficient or stingy by points or yards allowed, but they reeled in a ton of turnovers. They led the league with 43 to be exact.  If you think repeating passer rating magic is hard, that kind of takeaway stat is nearly impossible to sustain over years.  This is in part because opposing teams (other than the Eagles) become much more attuned to ball security when they play an opportunistic defense but also because there are so many factors beyond pure skill that are in play, or quite literally, which way the ball bounces.  For Green Bay so far, the bounce just hasn't been nearly as kind as in 2011.

Week 5 Picks for Every NFL Game

Whoa, buddy.  There's no other way to say it [arrogantly], I crushed it last week going 13 - 2 (or 87%) on my picks.  That side of the bell curve isn't likely to repeat itself soon in these parts, but hey, maybe I'm on to something as we move further away from the offseason distractions and onward to actually competent officiating.  Likewise, the NFL Powers are inevitably regressing to the mean as more early season darlings like the Packers, Broncos and Patriots are starting to pick up steam.  I should note that I've only picked a handful of teams not favored to win by Vegas standards this week-- maybe we're all on to something or we have no idea what's coming.  On to the 2nd Quarter and a fresh batch of Week 5 win-loss predictions:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-7)
Was there any question this would be the Lady Blitz Game of the Week?  The Brady-Manning (I) rivalry of old will rekindle for the first time since November 2010.  Now normally I would give Peyton Manning more credit [no I wouldn't] for his sheer competitive drive against his once and future AFC nemesis Tom Brady.  But if Tommy and Billy showed us anything this past Sunday, it's that they play like the Hulk.  You don't want to get them angry.  And boy, they must be fuming at the very thought of any Manning crashing their party after Super Bowl loss 2.0 against Eli last February.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Washington Redskins
The Falcons defense struggled for 3.9 quarters against Carolina's option quarterback last week (Cam Newton-- Heard of him?), which could make things interesting in Maryland this Sunday.  Nevertheless, I'm still very much on the Atlanta victory train in Week 5 with Matt Ryan playing out of his mind against an injury-riddled Redskins D.  Besides, sooner or later I'm going to jinx them, right?

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
For all of Philly's missteps and near disasters in Q1, I'm still not buying the Steelers this year.  Although their Week 4 bye gives us a small sample size and more rest for the aging Curtain, they've only been able to beat the Jets so far this year.  The Jets, people.  The battle for Pennsylvania should be a close one, but the Eagles definitely look like the better team to me.

Green Bay Packers (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Watching Drew Brees carve up the Green Bay secondary for nearly 450 yards last week might give Andrew Luck some hope coming out of the bye week, but I think Aaron Rodgers is going to have even more fun with Indy's secondary.  In the hopes that this will be another exciting shoot out instead of a rookie rout, I'm putting this one on the Top Shelf.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
How often is it that an 0 - 4 NFL team playing a 3 - 1 team becomes the 3.5 point favorite on the books?  If I could afford a research intern lackey, I'd have an answer for you.  Instead, Vegas, like me, is hoping for a small miracle for the improving but still winless Saints in Week 5.  This might also have something to do with NOLA tending to play its best under the Prime Time lights and the possibility that Drew Brees could break a remarkable QB record (Johnny Unitas' 47 consecutive games with a TD pass) that has stood for over 50 years.  My only hope is that Sean Payton sneaks in as the whistle monster to watch everything unfold without Cris Collinsworth noticing.  ***Update: Apparently no disguise is necessary***

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at St. Louis Rams
Verrrry interesting.  Having to travel for a Thursday night game (which I am contractually obligated to remind you for at least 2 consecutive weeks that I hate the idea of) could be rough on the Cardinals after a hard fought overtime win this past Sunday.  Plus, while I still think Arizona is playing at a high level, I don't think they're the kind of team that can go, say, 8 - 0 this year.  I think the Rams have just enough disruptive power in their pass rush to hand the Cardinals their first defeat this week.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
I must admit that the Titans and Vikings appear to be going in exactly opposite directions than what I projected in the preseason.  Minnesota is off to a very respectable 3 - 1 record that may be tested with tougher opponents later in the season, but they've already surpassed my 2-win-season prediction with style.  AP's quick recovery and Christian Ponder's sophomore emergence have already hoisted this team far above my expectations.  The Titans on the other hand are throwing poor Jake Locker and less sympathetic Chris Johnson to the wolves.  Could Tennessee have some O-Line issues?  The Hasselbeck cameo this week won't save the Titans from another heartbreaking defeat in the Metrodome.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
I'm still not sure about what to think of the Miami Dolphins.  They've been competitive in most of their losses so far this year, but the lack of follow through still matters.  The Bengals on the other hand took that first week in Baltimore to heart in a more productive way and look to be a well-oiled machine at this point, at least against lesser teams.  Gotta go with Cincy's gumption on this one.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3)
This is the kind of matchup that the sports media tends to call "intriguing," meaning they don't really know what the heck is going to happen.  I agree to an extent, but there have got to be some sophomore demons of self-doubt floating around in Cam Newton's toothy head right now.  If those demons come out to play on Sunday, I think the Seahawks' mean pass rush can take care of Carolina long enough for Marshawn Lynch to find his groove.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (-9)You know, this is just the kind of game that the New York Giants often find a way to lose, so if I were a betting gal, I'd say Big Blue won't cover the spread.  However, the Browns still haven't proven themselves to be primed enough to take advantage of a major upset opportunity like this.  They should beat themselves on Sunday if the Giants won't do it for them.

Baltimore Ravens (-5) at Kansas City Chiefs
I'm kind of amazed at how low the spread is for this game.  The Ravens get an extra 3 days of rest against a pitiful Chiefs team that is still winless at home and somehow Baltimore is expected to win by less than a touchdown?  Let the Flacco undervaluing (OMG Week 4 Feature!) work to your advantage.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Oh my Buffalo.  Just when it looked like they had found their footing and were about to take the Patriots for a ride for the second year in a row, a vengeful New England beast awoke and absolutely eviscerated their chances.  Some of the better teams in the NFL might be able to bounce back from a humiliation like that, but 1) Buffalo is not one of them; and 2) San Francisco is (see: Week 4 in New York after the loss to the Vikings)

Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Given that the Bears totally dismantled Tony Romo's passing game this past week, I shudder to think what they might do to Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville on Sunday.  Heck, Gabbert might get the Jaguars all packed for LA three years ahead of schedule...

Houston Texans (-8) at New York Jets
Ever notice how a simple typo can transform the NY Jets into the NY Jest?  That won't be much of a typo after Houston has its way with Mark Sanchez on Monday night.  I tried to think of a David Foster Wallace footnote to insert here but alas am not that clever, only somewhat savvy with my contemporary literature references.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 13 - 2
Season Record: 41 - 22