Why It Would Be Utterly Insane NOT To Select Adrian Peterson As MVP This Year

It shatters my soul to know that Peyton Manning is almost certainly going to get this award over Adrian Peterson this year based on early surveys of MVP voters.  I get it, Peyton Manning is still the god we always thought he was, the Broncos rose to the top of the shaky AFC this year by winning 11 straight, blah blah blah.  But here is why Adrian Peterson is absolutely hands down the rightful owner of this 2012 hardware:

1) Overall Team Impact - I don't deny Peyton Manning had a great year, but this is a Broncos team that was able to win 8 games to Peyton's 13 with Tim Tebow under center last year as well as a playoff game.  You cannot underestimate the impact that Denver's defense and running game have had since John Fox came to town.  In fact they have 4 other players (1 O-Line, 3 Defense) going to the Pro Bowl this season, so in terms of being the most valuable player on a team, while technically true for Manning, he has a very solid supporting cast.  Conversely, Adrian Peterson returned to a team that went 3 - 13 last season and virtually nobody including myself thought they'd even approach the 0.500 mark this year.  Instead, the Vikings stunned everyone by winning 7 more games than they did last season and a playoff spot almost entirely on the legs of AP.  Minnesota's only other two Pro Bowl selections are fullback Jerome Felton, who was key to Peterson's success, and kicker Blair Walsh.  This is a truly remarkable feat for Minnesota in this pass-happy age considering AP was 90% of the Vikings' offense.  In fact, Christian Ponder is ranked 31st out of 32 starting quarterbacks in yards per game, so soak that up for a minute.

2) Strength of Schedule - Let's also talk about strength of schedule while we're at it.  The Broncos have won their last 11 games handily, but they've had the easiest schedule in the NFL over this time frame including playing in the NFL's worst division that otherwise went 13 - 35 this year.  Of the five teams the Broncos played with a winning record this season, they beat two with 9 - 7 records (Ravens, Bengals) and lost to all three teams with 10+ wins (Patriots, Texans, Falcons).  The Vikings on the other hand played nine games against teams with winning records and in a division where nearly 3 out of 4 teams went to the playoffs.  They beat four teams with 10+ wins (49ers, Packers, Bears, Texans) this year and finished just three wins shy of the Broncos in spite of a not-even-comparable uphill battle. 

3) Historical Context - Finally, let's talk about historical context for a minute.  I said earlier this season that the primary reason that no QB should get MVP this year was because absolutely nobody stacks up to Aaron Rodgers' unbelievable performance last year during which he put up 45 TDs to 6 INTs to the tune of a record-setting passer rating of 122.5.  In comparison this year, Manning put up 37 TDs to 11 INTs with a passer rating of 105.8.  None of those are as good as Rodgers last year, nor are they even the best stats this year - Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have Manning beat with TDs (43 and 39), a slew of QBs have fewer INTs (Flacco, Wilson, Brady, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, RGIII... you get the idea), and even Aaron Rodgers himself outdid Manning on the passer rating this year with a 108 rating.  Finally, while it's a dubious stat (none of the top three QBs here made the playoffs this year), Manning isn't even in the top five QBs in yards per game this year. So I don't even have to get into historical records of all-time highs in TDs, yards or passer efficiency when talking about Manning's performance.  Now let's look at Adrian Peterson.  Not only did the man lead the league in rushing yards this year by a 400-yard (or 30-yards per game) margin, he finished the year just 9 yards shy of the all-time single-season record that has stood for nearly 30 years by Eric Dickerson.  Peterson had 27 rushes of 20 or more yards compared to a distant second place 12 by C. J. Spiller this year, and there were five games in which AP gained more yards than his own quarterback.  I cannot emphasize enough just how insane all of this is given not only the pass-heavy league we now live in but also the fact that Adrian Peterson suffered an ACL tear just a year ago.  Peyton Manning's recovery from his neck injury has been incredible too to be sure, but that injury was in no way as directly impactful on his passing performance with the protection of a stout offensive line as AP's leg injury when you think of the sheer yardage and pounding after contact he has taken this year.  Plus, Manning had the benefit of a year and a half off to recover whereas Peterson was back on the field just eight months after his injury.

In conclusion, jumping up and down pulling my hair out from my tiny blogger perch in Memphis, Tennessee, it would be total madness not to select Adrian Peterson as the league's MVP this year hands down.  It ain't gonna happen, but at least now you know.

Week 17 Picks for Every NFL Game

It's so very hard to believe we're already at the end of the regular season road in 2012.  It would appear we have a great playoff schedule ahead of us with at least six teams playing like Super Bowl contenders right now (Broncos, Patriots, Falcons, 49ers, Seahawks, Packers), but in the meantime there are only a handful of meaningful games to look forward to this week.  Any game with big playoff implications makes the Top Shelf.  Everything else is arbitrarily divided fluff.

After going through a long, respectable stride of picks through about Week 12 that had me ahead of both guys at Pro Football Talk and in about second or third place with the Bleacher Report gaggle of 11, I've gone bold in all the wrong places and slid back down to about the middle of the pack.  Even so, it's remarkable that going 64% is still pretty good by industry standards-- I definitely thought this stuff would be easier, and there've been an extraordinary number of games that have gone down to the wire and to overtime.  There are no guarantees this week with most teams playing for pride and a handful of teams having no material reason to play their starters before the playoffs begin, so I might find that it would have been better to go the way of a coin toss.  But being a stubborn know-it-sometimes, here are my last regular season picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3)
It feels strange that this is the only sudden death match for both teams involved this week.  This Lady Blitz Game of the Week is simple: win and you're in.  I side with the folks that predict this will be a shootout for the ages, which may very well come down to whatever team has the ball last.  Tony Romo and RGIII have looked spectacular for the past month, defensive breakdowns and injuries aside, respectively.  The Cowboys defense is on crutches while the Redskins' pass defense has been pretty uneven this season, so expect at least one QB to break 400 yards easily.  Ultimately, I have to go with Washington here - they are undefeated since their bye week and danced circles around Dallas' A-Team defense on Thanksgiving.  I don't expect them to have the same kind of luck this time with Griffin playing at less than 100%, but I'll take Kyle Shanahan's ability to coach his offense in the clutch more so than Rob Ryan's defense.

Chicago Bears (-3) at Detroit Lions
If these next two picks come to fruition, the Bears will be going to the playoffs this upcoming week.  I don't think this will be an easy win for a team that has come crashing back to Earth since starting the year 7 - 1, but Chicago has to be feeling more confident after getting back on track defensively in Arizona last week.  Hopefully now that Calvin Johnson has broken Jerry Rice's long-standing single-season passing record, Peanut Tillman will have a slightly easier go of shutting him down just enough for the Bears to reach the promise land.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
If I wasn't concerned with padding my stats, I'd absolutely take a chance on this Vikings team that continues to surprise everyone with unexpected wins week after week.  Heck, Minnesota almost beat the Packers at Lambeau a few weeks ago by putting Adrian Peterson 212 yards closer to Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record.  At home indoors, AP's got as good of a chance as anywhere else to repeat that feat and I'll be rooting hard for a Minnesota win and a Peterson record.  Even so, the Packers have won 10 straight and are playing for a bye week in the very competitive NFC playoff picture, and we can't have it both ways.

Houston Texans (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Like the Green Bay-Minnesota tilt above, this is a surprisingly big game, albeit with lower stakes.  Both teams have locked up their playoff spots, but the Texans are in a must-win situation if they want to protect home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye.  The Colts have far less to play for until next week, but Coach Chuck Pagano will finally be back on the sidelines for the first time since being diagnosed with leukemia three months ago.  When push comes to shove, I'm willing to take a chance that Indy's will can overcome Houston's skill during this final emotional week of the regular season at Lucas Oil.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Neither of these teams are playing for much right now, so I'd probably do better to flip a coin in this case not knowing if or how long the Ravens' and Bengals' starters will be on the field.  I'm picking the Ravens because they've officially activated Ray Lewis (heck yes!), and new OC Jim Caldwell could probably use another week with that offense to keep fine tuning before the Ravens have to try to keep pace with the likes of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and/or Tom Brady.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5)

I'm more than a little shocked the spread is this high for the Giants this week.  They've looked absolutely lifeless for the past two weeks against other avian teams (Falcons, Ravens-- see what I did there?!), so who's to say how they'll do against an Eagles team that has looked competitive if not all the way there in recent weeks?  Even so, New York will be facing a rusty Michael Vick who could be either supremely motivated to put his best foot forward or just as mistake-prone as always.  I'm going with the latter.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5)

This game has no playoff implications whatsoever, but don't expect these two teams to play that way.  They've found some late December offensive fireworks and should come out swinging for pride in a division that looks like it'll truly be up for grabs next year.  My money's on the Saints for obvious reasons.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-16.5)
This and the other NFC West game below are only in the Well Drink bucket because the division is still up for grabs... technically.  The 49ers can win the West at home against one of the worst offenses in the NFL, which should give San Francisco some breathing room to figure out how in the heck to manage its defense without injured All Pro DT Justin Smith.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11)
It's hard to fathom that suddenly sensational Seattle will be able to maintain 30+ point margins of victory for the remainder of this season, but they should still beat the Rams the same way they've beaten most teams at home this year: easily.  Should the 49ers slip up in some mind-bogglingly unlikely fashion and Seattle wins here, they will have one more battle at CenturyLink in the playoffs.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
I can't really waste a lot of space on this one.  The Bills suck, but the Jets suck worse.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)
You gotta love the scheduling cruelty of putting a Miami team in New England in December every year to face the Patriots.  This time, the Dolphins will get to experience a new flavor of Tom Brady's wrath since he was more than a little displeased with the Pats' mere 7-point victory over the Jaguars last week.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)

I might have taken another chance on the Browns this week the way the Steelers have played lately, but they are officially down to freshly signed QB Thaddeus "who?" Lewis after injuries to Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy.  If Pittsburgh can't pull this one off, Mike Tomlin might start coaching for his livelihood next season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (OFF)

I don't know if I believe Falcons coach Mike Smith when he says his team will play this one all the way through with starters.  That could be largely contingent on how viciously Matt Ryan shreds the Tampa Bay secondary in the first half, because it's gonna happen.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-16)

The promise of a first-round bye and potentially homefield advantage in the AFC rests in Peyton Manning's hands against the Kansas City Chiefs.  Since the Chiefs inexplicably have four players going to the Pro Bowl in a few weeks (which is more than the Atlanta Falcons have, mind you), I'm going to guess they've already packed their bags and blocked this season out of their minds.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (OFF)

Who can ever tell about the Chargers these days?  One minute they're blowing the Steelers and Jets to pieces, the next minute they're letting the Panthers run circles around them at home.  I cannot even give the same degree of "props" to the Raiders these days, so this one looks to be Norv Turner's retirement party.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4)

Who can ever really tell about the Titans either?  I think the Jaguars can absolutely beat a team that gave up 55 points last week, but I think any team can absolutely beat the Jaguars too.  So I root again for the home team and a chance for Mike Munchak to give it just one more try next year, I hope.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 153 - 86 - 1

Week 16 Recap and the Most Disappointing NFL Teams of 2012

Merry post Christmas, dear readers!  There were plenty of playoff gifts and coal to bestow this weekend as the playoff picture got crystal clear for the AFC (all six teams are locked up), and darn close to determined in the NFC (two playoff spots are up for grabs for five teams in the hunt).  We are down to the wire, which means there will be only a handful of Top Shelf games this week, but I think we're headed for a great post-season that could include up to three rookie QBs, a much-missed Brady-Manning postseason face off, and some very likeable underdogs in the Colts, Seahawks and potentially the Vikings or Redskins.

Here's your Week 16 recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: The Most Disappointing NFL Teams of 2012.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 16: The Good Stuff

• The New Seahawks-49ers Rivalry - Seattle's dominating victory over San Francisco on Sunday night allowed me to barely sneak back into double-digit wins with my picks this week, so for this alone I am grateful.  But I am also grateful we now have ourselves a most-excellent new rivalry in the surprisingly good NFC West.  These teams have all the makings of a Steelers-Ravens quality tradition of hatred: incredibly successful new coaches who used to face each other annually in the PAC-10, a bruising running game, elite defenses, and now, two young quarterbacks that have absolutely earned their keep under center in the second half of this season.  If these two teams' seeding holds and they get into the second round, they will face off in Candlestick in the divisional round of the playoffs.  Mark your calendars because this will be a battle of epic proportions.  Alex Smith will still watch from the sidelines with his helmet on.  P.S., Is it just my wishful thinking or is there a chance that he could sign with those other rivals, the Arizona Cardinals, out of spite and make the NFC West twins into triplets?

• Late Season Bounce Backs - Although one could equally argue that these teams' opponents were DOA on Sunday, I was impressed with the way the Ravens, Bears and Chargers all bounced back with emphatic wins on Sunday after several weeks of slumping.  As the New York Giants single-handedly remind us most years that are not 2012, postseason success is so very often about getting hot at the right time.  (The Chargers are out of that conversation, so consider my San Diego hat tipped for sacking hapless third-string QB Greg McElroy a whopping 11 times on Sunday.)  Few teams could have used a confidence-building win more in Week 16 than Baltimore and Chicago, and they delivered by returning to their old winning habits.  Baltimore rediscovered its offense with about 35% aggressive play-calling from OC Jim Caldwell, 50% Ray Rice, and 15% Joe Flacco having one of those games that makes you wonder why he doesn't do this more often.  The Bears found pay dirt by forcing three takeaways for two defensive scores against the woeful Cardinals, which ended up being the difference in their win.
• Nailed It!: My Best Week 16 Prediction - Next season, I think I'm going to feature a few spread predictions each week as well as the usual straight win-loss stuff.  Case in point - my observation that the Patriots, like the Packers and Texans, weren't just going to waltz into Jacksonville untouched.  Turned out, it was a tough enough game to make a Brady throw his Uggs in the locker room, metaphorically: 
• "I've already joked twice about elite teams (Packers, Texans) getting a second bye week by playing the Jaguars this year, yet both times the Jags played it surprisingly close.  So to make a long story short, I don't expect them to beat the Patriots either."

 Week 16: The Bad Stuff

• Big Ben's Anti-Clutch Woes - Dating back to that unbelievable pass (and catch) from Roethlisberger to Holmes in Super Bowl XLIII, Ben Big has earned a respectable on the field reputation as one of the league's most clutch QBs.  Sadly for Steelers fans, what goes up must come down, and Ben's last two weeks under center have been nothing short of disastrous in the waning minutes, costing Pittsburgh any chance of making the playoffs this year.  For two weeks in a row, Roethlisberger threw interceptions deep in Steelers territory--first in overtime against Dallas and then in the last 20 seconds of regulation against Cincinnati--to set up winning field goals for the other team.  Last week in Dallas was a disappointing moment for Pittsburgh to be sure, but this week was just a head-scratcher by all accounts.  To be transparent, I'm no Steelers fan, but even I felt like I was crazy watching Pittsburgh trying to march down the field in the final seconds of the game against the Bengals.  The team was positioned around its own 20 yard line in a tie game with less than half a minute to go in the fourth quarter.  When you're playing at home against a Bengals team that has been nothing short of abysmal against you for most of the world's existence and they haven't scored an offensive TD all day, why in the world of Kanye our lord and savior would you EVER try to go for it in this situation when a much more statistically successful path to victory is just a kneel-down and coin toss away?!?!?!  I don't deny that this is more a coaching problem than a QB problem, but for goodness' sake, Ben Roethlisberger, just throw. the ball. away. so Jessica could have gotten to 11 - 5 in her picks this week.  Looks like there's only one thing for this new family man left to do:

• The Texans' Pretender Status - Oy.  I've mentioned here before that I've really enjoyed rooting for the Houston Texans this year for their balanced success and playmaking ability in a very QB-heavy league, but it's hard to imagine them making it to the conference championship round at all in the playoffs the way they're playing right now.  Conversely, I cannot think of a more deserving Coach of the Year than the Vikings' Leslie Frazier who has done so much with so little this year.  While Adrian Peterson has a much more uphill battle now to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record with the Texans holding him to a "mere" 86 yards on Sunday, Coach Frazier exploited Houston's obsession with stopping AP to a tee to earn a surprisingly easy Vikings victory.  But back to the Texans-- they have shown in these past few weeks that they cannot stop an elite quarterback (Rodgers, Brady) nor could they stop the league's simplest offense on Sunday to secure a #1 seed in the AFC... yet.  Let's just say next week against the Colts at Lucas Oil just got a whole lot more interesting.
• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 16 Prediction - Speaking of that Texans-Vikings tilt, I didn't see Minnesota's meteoric rise continuing against a Houston team whose stock is now on a big decline:
• "As much as I'd love to see Minnesota continue its very memorable underdog playoff run, I just can't see the Texans defense getting outsmarted by a very one-dimensional offense with competing priorities."

Week 16 Feature: The Most Disappointing NFL Teams of 2012
Just as we've enjoyed seeing a surprising class of great teams emerge from the ashes this year and into postseason consideration (the Colts, Vikings, Redskins and Seahawks to name a few), it's time to, err, coronate the underperformers of the league whose fans will soon have only bitter disappointment and a litany of "what ifs" to ponder for the next eight months.  Weirdly enough, this wasn't nearly as "disappointing" of a season for most fan bases as we are accustomed to, since it is likely 6 out of 8 divisions will have been won by the same teams as last year, and only three out of twelve teams that were in the playoffs last year have been outright eliminated as of Week 16 this year (Steelers, Saints and Lions).  So to stick to the script and explain why the New York Jets have no place here, since I predicted they'd be disappointing in the preseason, here are the top 5 teams I expected better of this season who've turned out to be pretenders instead of contenders:

5) The Pittsburgh Steelers - I don't particularly have to go into the Steelers too much given my treatise of Ben Roethlisberger's egg-laying above, but after rightfully predicting that Pittsburgh would barely miss the playoffs at the beginning of the season, I reneged at mid-season and actually projected they would win the division with Baltimore and Cincinnati suffering some big slumps.  It's hard to begrudge the Steelers too much with all of the injuries they've had this season including Roethlisberger's troubling rib injury that sidelined him for several games, but the Steelers have been wildly uneven.  They've won several games I didn't expect them to (vs. the Giants and Ravens in Baltimore with Charlie Batch), but they've lost even more games that they really shouldn't have (vs. the Titans, Browns, Raiders and Chargers), which will frustrate any Pittsburgh fan who realizes just how easy it would have been to make the AFC playoffs this year.

4)  The Buffalo Bills - It's interesting to compare the fortunes of the Bills to the similarly rostered Vikings this year.  Both have solid defensive talent and Pro Bowl-caliber running backs that could very easily be offset by poor coaching and poorer QB play.  Sure, it's unfair to compare anyone to Adrian Peterson this year, even C. J. Spiller, but it's no small wonder that Minnesota has had a much more successful season than a Bills team that, like the teams above and below on this list, could have forged their way to the top of a shaky conference this year.  Poor Buffalo's woes probably won't get much better as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick's bloated contract keeps him under center and Chan Gailey's tenure continues... which shouldn't be long, actually.  And you can chalk up some of the Bills' problems to the suprisingly great play of Andrew Luck's Colts and Peyton Manning's Broncos that have eclipsed most other AFC teams' chances of getting into the postseason.  Nevertheless, Buffalo has now earned its eighth consecutive season without a winning record, which is unfortunately all too appropriate for the saddest city in the rust belt. 

3) The Kansas City Chiefs - I could not have been any more dead wrong with a single team's outlook this season than the Chiefs, which I thought would be able to win the very unstable AFC West while Peyton Manning was still getting his groove back with the Broncos.  I was definitely right that the AFC West would be the NFL's worst, most easily conquerable division in 2012, but who knew the Chiefs would turn out to be the worst of the worst?  Romeo Crennel will almost certainly pack his bags with glee in January to leave behind a devastating year in every sense.  P.S., now that we see what Todd Haley was able to do with the same roster two years ago, how quickly do you suppose he'll get snatched up by another team desperate for a head coach?

2)  The New York Giants - At the time of writing this, the Giants still technically have a chance to make the playoffs this season, but they need about four games not in their control to go right next Sunday.  In other words, it ain't gonna happen.  New York will become the first reigning Super Bowl champions in four years not to make the playoffs the subsequent year.  They also became the first champs to lose the 2012 season opener since this Thursday night tradition started eight years ago.  Much like the Steelers' troubles above, the Giants too have won some surprising games this year (vs. the 49ers and Packers) and lost some worse ones in the late season when their usual sense of unstoppable urgency kicks in (vs. the Bengals, Ravens and Falcons).  Unlike the Steelers, however, the Giants don't have an ungodly number of injuries to hide behind with this young, stacked roster that made it look so easy just a year ago.  One thing's for certain, Patriots fans everywhere are sighing in relief as we speak.

1) The Philadelphia Eagles - Fewer expectations have been more deflated this year than those surrounding the Philadelphia Eagles.  Andy Reid has proven himself to be the Lucy that has snatched the football away from us Charlie Browns one last time.  Philly's stock soared with its seemingly invincible coaching staff and fantasy football-style of talent acquisitions in the offseason of 2011, but everything came crashing back to Earth during a 4 - 8 slide sooner than you could spell Asomugha.  Nevertheless we still had hope that after the team closed the season out at 4 - 0, the Eagles talent and coaching machines would be much more well-oiled and ready to rise back into serious contention on the wings of a healthy Michael Vick in 2012.  Although some pundits' expectations may not have been quite as high as mine (though many were higher by picking the Eagles to win the NFC East), I dare you to find a soul who had this team going 4 - 11 at this point.  Once again, poor Michael Vick has been beaten to a pulp behind an offensive line that couldn't stop the league's worst defenses (like the Saints!) and the team has been otherwise riddled with turnovers, bone-headed mistakes and an unforgiving fanbase that actually has much better reasons to boo now than they did when Donovan McNabb was drafted long ago.  There can be no doubt Jeff Lurie will clean house (assuming his job is safe either) once the Eagles pack up their cleats next week, but it take more than a clean slate to get this team back to fine in 2013 and beyond.

Week 16 Picks for Every NFL Game

This is the part of the season that is more exciting and terrifying for a football blogger than any other.  I’ve been in a sort of mini-slump for a couple of weeks in some instances overthinking things and in others, falling victim to the late season surprises that come with some teams’ reanimated playoff hopes, others’ untimely injuries, and for those who’ve already been eliminated, a style of wild and crazy play that only happens when there’s nothing left to lose.

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-7.5)
The individual matchup between J.J. Watt and Adrian Peterson alone makes this the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Both players are eyeing some of the most impressive single season league records in these final two weeks (Watt is 3.5 sacks away from breaking Michael Strahan’s record and Peterson is just under 300 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s rushing record), and that puts this game in an unstoppable force/immovable object realm of cage match.  If I were Leslie Frazier, I’d let AP tear up that indoor Reliant field with a few well-placed Christian Ponder dropbacks as a decoy so that both players can stay on that coveted trajectory.  Even so, as much as I’d love to see Minnesota continue its very memorable underdog playoff run, I just can’t see the Texans defense getting outsmarted by a very one-dimensional Vikings offense with competing priorities.

San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Seattle Seahawks  
Bravo to NBC for flexing this surprisingly intriguing divisional bout to Sunday prime time, as virtually no two teams have been hotter in the NFL as of late.  Both of these offenses have come alive to match their consistently spectacular defensive efforts, putting up a whopping 176 combined points in the last two weeks.  Seattle’s had a tremendous edge all season long at home, but if there’s one team that could snap that trend, it’s a San Francisco team that punched the Patriots in the mouth at Foxboro just last week.  In an anything goes, no holds barred kind of match up, I like the Seahawks to play it close and tough with the twelfth man on their side, more to lose, and far fewer turnovers than New England giftwrapped for the Niners last week.

 

New York Giants (-2.5) at Baltimore Ravens 
Here are two perennially respected teams who’ve been ravaged by brutal late season schedules and are still trying to capture their division titles.  Unfortunately for the Ravens, I just don’t see things getting much better on offense as long as New York’s front four can unleash an appropriate amount of havoc early and often on Joe Flacco.  Eli will bounce back against an ailing Baltimore defense, but the Ravens will still be the only team here with a clinched playoff berth.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Nearly all of the Top Shelf matchups have huge playoff stakes for the teams involved, but no game is arguably more do or die for both teams than this AFC North rumble.  Pittsburgh should be concerned about its own defensive performance over the past couple of weeks as well as Cincy’s elite pass rush, but the Bengals have a real mental block with this team and are already 1 - 3 in the division.  While the Bengals are easily the better team on paper this year, I just haven’t seen enough to believe they have the resolve to beat Big Ben at Heinz Field while the Steelers are in a sudden death playoff situation.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
On this episode of the Bachelor, two suitors will vie for Sean Payton’s fickle contractual love while also trying to save face, and in the Cowboy’s camp, trying to keep those playoff hopes on life support for another week.  If you’re a Saints conspiracy theorist, you might find yourself believing or even praying that they’ll throw the game in order to keep Jason Garrett right where he now sits.   If you’re me, you’re alternately concerned that last week’s shutout was a fluke on the merits of a turbulent Buccaneers locker room and league-worst secondary.  One thing is certain: the Cowboys are going to keep swinging until this one’s over because they have everything to lose.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Detroit Lions 
I don’t expect Atlanta to crush Lions in exactly the same dramatic fashion that they did with the Giants last week, but even away from home against a team with nothing to lose, the Falcons should be well-prepared to lock up the #1 seed they will surely benefit from in January.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles 
This could actually turn out to be a more dynamic game than I would have thought looking back even three weeks ago, but the Redskins just aren’t taking no for an answer right now with five straight wins no matter who’s under center.  Currently sitting at first place in the NFC East, Washington can claim its own playoff destiny by winning out against two division rivals (Eagles, Cowboys) in these final two weeks, and they’ve certainly demonstrated they have the chops to do it.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)
Given just how unbelievably pathetic the Jets were on Monday, it’s no small wonder the Titans still only managed to win by 4 points.  The Packers are in no mood for making mistakes right now with a 1 or 2 playoff seed technically still in sight, but I’m hoping the Titans defense can continue to keep things more interesting than expected this week after a month of noticeable improvement.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals 
At first, I thought it was just injuries that were bogging the Chicago Bears down, but now I’m not so sure that’s the case looking back at their recent 1 - 5 slide.  For one, as I’ve mentioned before here, the Bears’ early season defensive fireworks were unlikely to sustain themselves, but their offense has not held up well against the league’s best defenses either (Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Clay Matthews’ Packers).  In other words, we’re in for a wild ride in Arizona this week, folks, and it’s probably going to come down to whether or not one of these defenses can outscore the other.  Given that the Cardinals had to have just about everything go their way last week to win, I’m banking on the Bears getting past them to sneak back into a wild card spot.

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Even though both of these teams are out of options for a plausible playoff run, this is a much bigger moment for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than for the St. Louis Rams.  On the whole, Greg Schiano’s inaugural coaching season has been a success just as Jeff Fisher’s has, but Schiano is already on the verge of mutiny in the locker room just like his predecessor Raheem Morris.  The Bucs can right the pirate ship for next year by unleashing Doug Martin on a Rams team that was trampled by Adrian Peterson just a week ago.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Kansas City Chiefs 
These two teams are roughly in opposite positions than I expected them to be in my preseason win-loss predictions, but those positions are well-deserved on both sides of the spectrum.  I like the Colts to keep a stronghold on their wild card position against a Chiefs team that has only a draft pick [not]  to play for at this point.  If all else goes according to plan, the Colts could then backstroke their way through Week 17 with Chuck Pagano back on the sidelines and the #1 Texans having nothing else to jockey for in the regular season.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
Fun fact: we are 40 years removed from the Dolphins’ perfect 17 - 0 season and nearly 20 years removed from the Bills’ four straight Super Bowl appearances.  The wonder of these feats cannot be understated, especially since they are so unlikely to repeat in the modern era of NFL parity, but this Week 16 matchup serves only as a reminder of how the mighty have fallen.  I’m going with Miami with a hunch that these teams should split their series this year and that the Dolphins’ offense is just good enough right now to stop Buffalo from spoiling Miami’s playoff chances a week too early.

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (-2.5)
How is it that the Jets keep reeling in all of these pathetic late season games?  To jog your memory, their last five weeks of the schedule contain the Cardinals, Jaguars, Titans, Chargers and Bills, yet they’ve already eliminated themselves from the playoffs.  As insanely bad as the Jets played on Monday night, I’m not real sure what to expect from the Chargers during an early East Coast outing in the Meadowlands.  Let's give poor Greg McElroy a chance to earn one of the league's worst starting QB jobs.

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers (-8)
Panthers fans will be wringing their hands all spring and summer that this team couldn’t find its rhythm until December, but they can earn a few more pride points going into 2013 by dismantling an awful Oakland defense at home.

New England Patriots (-14.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ve already joked twice about elite teams (Packers, Texans) getting a second bye week by playing the Jaguars this year, yet both times the Jags played it surprisingly close.  So to make a long story short, I don’t expect them to beat the Patriots either.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-13)
A playoff bye week is the Broncos’ to lose, and with home games against the Browns and Chiefs for these final two weeks, Peyton Manning can lock this thing up in his sleep.


Last Week's Record: 9 - 7*
Season Record: 143 - 80 - 1

*Don’t judge me too harshly on this one-- I would be back to 10 - 6 if the awful, awful Jets hadn’t done this.  That Monday night disaster was the only walk in a Jets fan’s shoes I’ll ever need to experience.

Week 15 Recap and My Playoff Matchup Wish List

This was the kind of football weekend to blow your hair back permanently between expected and unexpected blowouts and at least one game that will absolutely make my Top 10 for the 2012 season.  You know it's been a crazy week when the Saints defense could teach the Steelers and Cowboys a thing or two about tackling.

Here's your Week 15 recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: My Playoff Matchup Wish List.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 15: The Good Stuff

• Atlanta's Statement Game - This is undoubtedly the cliche term of the day, but even I can't deny how the Falcons responded to their critics and doubters against a dangerous Giants team by issuing them a 34 - 0 shut out this weekend.  New York never found its rhythm while the Falcons never lost theirs, putting up 4 TDs and forcing 3 turnovers.  It's hard to say whether Atlanta will be able to make it past the other NFC juggernauts to the Super Bowl yet, but if they play in the Georgia Dome in January like they have in December, they should clear some confidence hurdles with ease.
• The Patriots-49ers Shoot Out - If there's one team that should have just about everyone shaking in their postseason boots, including Atlanta, it's the San Francisco 49ers.  If there are two teams, let the other be the New England Patriots.  Both squads put on a heckuva show on Sunday night in one of the most memorable top tier bouts we've seen all season.  The Niners sprinted out to a 31 - 3 lead early in the third quarter, which would usually be enough to send fans off to bide time on that inexplicable 4-lane highway in Foxboro.  But the Patriots faithful [almost] got the show they paid to see when Tom Brady led his team back from a 28-point deficit in mere minutes.  Even though San Francisco ultimately overpowered them by taking advantage of late game defense and special teams breakdowns, New England fans should still take pride in the fight this team showed to the end.  It will most certainly serve them well in January and maybe February too.  Kudos to Colin Kaepernick & co as well for matching explosive offensive wits with the high-flying Pats.

• The Redskins' Apparently Smart Draft Maneuvers - Many people understandably ripped the Redskins management for selling a hefty bit of its future for some big picks in the 2012 draft.  In retrospect of Sunday's surprise breakout performance by rookie backup QB Kirk Cousins, who also impressed last week with a clutch overtime win against the Ravens, it was well worth it.  Cousins put up 2 TDs and over 300 yards on an underrated Cleveland defense and brought the Redskins over the finish line for the second week in a row.  Think about that.  How many off-the-bench rookies do you know of that could keep their team in a tightly contested playoff position after their MVP-quality Number One (or III) went down?  Throw surprise 6th round star RB Alfred Morris in the mix and you absolutely have to, with white knuckles and grinding teeth, give Dan Snyder an iota of credit for a remarkable turnaround in Washington.  These past two games alone were certainly well worth nabbing Cousins.
• Nailed It! My Best Week 15 Prediction - I wasn't stunningly good with the picks this week, but there were a few I got really right.  This may be low-hanging fruit, but Baltimore's late season struggles have emerged in a big and obvious way:
• "Will this coaching change allow the Ravens to shake things up against John Fox’s scheming or just send Baltimore into a world of disorganized chaos?  Seeing how Coach Caldwell fared without Manning under center in 2011, I’m guessing this is a pretty bad time to shake the Ravens’ offensive snow globe."

Week 15: The Bad Stuff

•  Baltimore's Offense Problem -  Somewhere in the great northeast, ex-OC Cam Cameron is doing a crossword puzzle in his loafers (or building model ships in jars?) and smirking inwardly about the continuing offensive woes in Baltimore.  To give a measure of grace to the Ravens, they've had the kitchen sink in terms of devastating injuries on defense, and that's had a huge impact on the whole game plan.  But it is quite clear that, for his flashes of brilliant play, Joe Flacco cannot carry this team on his shoulders alone.  And speaking of carrying, when you know that about Flacco, Jims Caldwell and Harbaugh, why in the heck are you limiting Pro Bowl RB Ray Rice to less than 20--or heck, 15--carries a game?  Ever.  Period.  I know people will say that you can't run the ball when you're in a hole like the Ravens were in this weekend, but in the big picture, they had 6 three-and-outs this time, were held to 3 points for three quarters and now find themselves in the middle of a three-game slide at the wrong time of year.  Someone get Ray Lewis some amphetamines stat!
• Jets v. Titans - Oh. My. Tebow.  If the 49ers-Pats game was one of the very best we've seen this season, then this Monday night stinker has to be the absolute worst.  It's like Sunday night was a succubus that took the soul of Jon Gruden's call.  Honestly, who in the ESPN scheduling office thought this would ever be a good idea in December 2012?  Did they forget the end of the world isn't until Friday?!  To give you a sense of how bad this has been, neither QB has hit the 100-yard mark midway through the third quarter, Tebow's one series was somehow one of the worst I've ever seen even by Tebow standards, and we've seen two 20-yard punts from Tennessee's end zone.  It's a shame only one of the these teams could have lost this game, but you really have to hand it to the Jets for their unparalleled ineptitude.  Down by 4, New York had the ball inside Tennessee's 30-yard line not once but twice inside of two minutes.  What did we get out of it?  A Sanchez INT on first and ten before Jon Gruden could even finish the sentence "they have all the time in the world to run this thing in," and then this.

• The Cowboys' "Support" of Josh Brent - I generally try to stay away from the political and the self-righteous moralizing in this space, but I was more than a little stunned to see the Cowboys' Josh Brent on the sidelines during Sunday's game against the Steelers.  If you don't recall, Brent was arrested just two weeks ago for killing teammate Jerry Brown in a drunk-driving accident and now finds himself back in prime time albeit in street clothes.  As the Cowboys tell it, Brown's mother pleaded that the team forgive and support Brent through what has absolutely been the nightmare scenario of a lifetime.  (And if you want to know what true forgiveness looks like, she has said publicly she does not wish to press charges against Brent for this terrible mistake.)  I could not admire her more for the grace she has given to the embattled player, but the Cowboys organization is a whole other story.  While I'm sure the move was well-intentioned on Dallas' part, letting Brent stand on the sidelines of Sunday's game just left a bad taste in my mouth.  Why does this "support" of Josh Brent have to be so public, so fraught, and probably so distressing to the countless number of other people who've lost loved ones in drunk driving accidents?  This is a situation where I'd say if the Cowboys' office had even the smallest of reservations about how this decision would make those people feel or what kind of message it sends to the youth who look up to players like this or just how tragically preventable this whole event was in the first place, they should have supported Josh Brent at home when the bright lights are off, because I'm positive that's where he's going to need it most.  Don't drag the rest of us into this.
• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 15 Prediction - I had some near-misses and some real whiffs this week in the pick, to be expected.  This wasn't one many people saw coming, but I'm actually quite impressed that the Arizona defense finally got a win it deserved when the offense just hasn't been enough: 
• "Whereas Detroit has a mediocre defense to Arizona’s solid one (Sunday in Seattle aside), Arizona is absolutely no match for the Lions on offense.  An 0 - 10 slide is imminent" 

Week 15 Feature: My Playoff Matchup Wish List
There are still a smattering of playoff spots up for grabs, which ought to make for an excellent last couple of weeks in the regular season, but as the crystal ball gets a little clearer, it's time to salivate over the most intriguing playoff scenarios that could come to pass.  If Santa's out there listening, here's my playoff matchup wish list for 2012-13:

• Brady-Manning 15.0 - In what turned out to be a hotly anticipated but disappointing blowout earlier this year, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning met for the teenth (not sure which one) time in Denver in Week 5.  It's hard to believe that either team got so much better after that, much less both teams.  They are without a doubt the cream of the AFC crop, and this looks to be a match of destiny in the conference championship. 
• The Indy Relay Race - Peyton Manning unwillingly passed the Colts QB baton to Andrew Luck back in the Spring, but both must be feeling like this has been a win-win situation in retrospect.  The 2012 Colts would/will be no match for a Broncos team this talented and well-coached, but who wouldn't want to see the ghosts of Colts past and future trade TD passes?
• Giants-Redskins Rumble, The Third - Washington and New York switched places in the NFC East (and playoff seed) standings this weekend, and as both of their divisional bouts this year demonstrated, the margin of competitive edge is razor-thin. And if there was any matchup that could go spiraling into triple overtime (other than a highly unlikely Rams-49ers playoff battle), it would be between these never-say-die rivals.  Sign me up.
• Harbaugh Bowl - Going into the conference championships this past January, we almost had the chance to see brothers Jim and John Harbaugh go head to head in the big dance with the 49ers and Ravens, respectively.  John won Round 1 last year, but there appears to have been a reversal of fortune this time with San Francisco playing in a different dimension than the rest of the league.  Sibling rivalry at its finest.

• Fail Mary, the Sequel - For those of you who thought recounts were just for Florida, how choice would it be to see the Seahawks and Packers reunite in the playoffs under the ever-precise and watchful eyes of the "real" referees?  What's more, Russell Wilson's starting to look like he could actually go toe-to-toe with the great one in Green Bay, meaning this thing could still come down to a breath-taking Hail Mary drive. 

Week 12 Picks for Every NFL Game

(In case you missed it, here's my final take on the Saints Bounty ruling.  Hilarity ensues.)

We have ourselves a true embarrassment of riches in terms of games worth watching in Week 15.  11 out of 16 games this week feature at least one team still in the playoff hunt; 7 of those feature two playoff hopefuls going head to head.  With just a little over a week before the end of the Mayan calendar to go, it’ll be a perfect Sunday to be a couch potato shut-in as the postseason picture gets just a little bit clearer.  To those players and fans whose teams are still hungry for playoff paydirt, may the odds be ever in your favor (unless you’re with the Falcons):

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5.5) - Even with a slate of excellent games on the Top Shelf and Well Drink bucket this week, it doesn’t get much better than our Lady Blitz Game of the Week between the 49ers and the Patriots.  For all the fanfare I’ve bestowed on Texans DE J.J. Watt this season, I can’t leave 49ers LB Aldon Smith out of the conversation when it comes to defensive performance.  Smith already has 19.5 sacks on the year and 3 more games to try to break Michael Strahan’s mighty impressive single-season record (22.5).  That alone makes San Francisco well worth watching in this late stretch, but both the Niners and the Patriots will be tested in this inter-conference, opposing philosophies matchup between the old guard and new guard of elite NFL coaches.  The way the Patriots shredded the Texans on Monday night was scary, but I don't think the 49ers will let them off that easy.  Even so, I'll take the way Tom Brady is playing these days over a young San Francisco team in the New England winter.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) - It’s time for Atlanta to put its money where its mouth is.  Despite a conference-best 11-2 record, the Falcons haven’t had much of a chance to prove their worth against the better teams in the NFL this year or in previous playoff outings under Mike Smith.  After a disappointing game against the Panthers last week, the Dirty Birds must now face a New York Giants squad that embarrassed them in January by holding them to just 2 points on the day.  Skeletons in the closet much?  The Falcons should be fired up to try to get this one right, but I don’t intend to pick against the dangerous and determined Giants in December again regardless of Atlanta’s motivation.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears - Lovie Smith is on the contractual chopping block after this year, and going 1 - 4 over the past five games with a suddenly iced defense certainly isn’t helping his cause.  Meanwhile, the Packers have regained steam at the right time and could be getting back key starters on defense (Woodson, Matthews) this week to help their cause.  In the NFL, momentum is everything so I have to go with Green Bay  maintaining its perfect divisional record on the way to the postseason.

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Baltimore Ravens - We’ve got ourselves quite the AFC dogfight in Baltimore this weekend, and it just got even more interesting as Baltimore sent ex-OC Cam Cameron packing and replaced him with... you guessed it, Peyton Manning’s old coach Jim Caldwell.  This presents two important question marks on the game’s outcome: 1) will Caldwell be able to impart some [robotically stoic] wisdom on his current team’s defensive plans for the resurgent Peyton Manning?; and 2) will this coaching change allow the Ravens to shake things up against John Fox’s scheming or just send Baltimore into a world of disorganized chaos?  Seeing how Coach Caldwell fared without Manning under center in 2011, I’m guessing this is a pretty bad time to shake the Ravens’ offensive snow globe.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-8.5) - Speaking of former Colts, who knew the AFC South would get this interesting just a year later?  Indy’s closing in fast on a wild card berth while the Texans control their destiny for a first-round bye and perhaps a #1 seed in January.  It’s been well worth the wait to get to see these teams go head-to-head in Weeks 15 and 17 (though who’s to say whether they’ll still be playing for anything significant in Week 17).  I expect a close, exciting match with many twists and turns along the way, but I think Houston’s defense at home will get the better of Andrew Luck this time around.  Reliant Stadium will be a rockin’.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Dallas Cowboys - An obscene proportion of the U.S. populace has been waiting for this matchup all season long, and both the Steelers and Cowboys now find themselves teetering on the edge of playoff contention and perhaps even division titles in this do-or-die situation.  Here are my assumptions that will surely be put to the test this weekend: 1) that Ben Roethlisberger’s play will continue to improve coming off a significant injury; 2) that the Cowboys lucked out more than a little bit against the Bengals last week in a way that won’t repeat itself here; and 3) that the Cowboys’ emotional exhaustion will get the better of them just as it happened to the Colts and Chiefs after their respective off-the-field tragedies earlier this year.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - The Bengals will absolutely be kicking themselves in January if last week’s collapse against the Cowboys ultimately keeps them at home.  Thursday night in Philadelphia may not be a walk in the park for Cincy now that Nick Foles & co. are showing signs of life, but consider this: the Bengals lead the league in sacks right now while the Eagles have allowed the third most sacks in the NFL.  Expect no mercy from these hungry Bengals hopefuls in prime time.

Washington Redskins (-1) at Cleveland Browns - Don’t look now but the Cleveland Browns have gone 5 - 3 after starting the season 0 - 5.  One could argue that none of these wins have been against particularly impressive [healthy] teams, but Cleveland looks to be headed in the right direction as the elder AFC North teams could soon be retiring.  Even so, few teams are hotter right now than the Redskins and they have a must-win situation on their hands this Sunday.  Kirk Cousins could pull off the W, but I'm praying for a resilient RGIII to retake the reins.

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-3) - Here’s a game few people probably thought would be this interesting back in September.  Both the Vikings and the Rams have emerged as unlikely wild card contenders, and somebody’s about to get knocked off of that totem pole this weekend.  Adrian Peterson’s success on the ground cannot be understated here against a burgeoning Rams front seven powerhouse.  I'm on team-AP to keep those legs churning toward 2,000 yards, but the Rams defense has looked very good against run-first, pass second teams lately.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - I’m not sure you can call this one a Desperation Bowl since both the Saints and the Bucs are all but statistically eliminated from the 2012 playoff hunt.  This one’s all about pride, and my pride has been hurt after wrongly picking the Saints for three consecutive weeks against much better teams.  New Orleans has reminded me more than a little bit of Dallas lately with flashes of brilliance sprinkled between heinous mistakes including the kinds of interceptions Drew Brees just shouldn’t be throwing at this stage in his career.  The Buccaneers are definitely on the upward swing, but they’ve let a lot of close games slip away in the waning minutes this year.  In fact, all seven of their losses have been within one possession.  Soak all of that in because it makes this game next to impossible to pick.  So that I won't fall victim to the gambler's fallacy, I'm going to have to go Saints given the Buccaneers' terrible secondary, though I have a sneaking suspicion Drew Brees is playing hurt and could cost NOLA another one.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills - You still just don’t quite know what to expect from the Seahawks on the road despite their recent rise in the NFC ranks, but Buffalo’s ship is sunk and Seattle has a lot more to play for on Sunday.  I expect Russell Wilson to continue his upward trajectory this week alongside Marshawn Lynch’s brutal style of power rushing against a suspect Buffalo defense.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-7) - Here’s a novel thought: the Jaguars and Dolphins should just merge and call it a day.  That way, they might have just enough talent to get to 0.500 and a fanbase that could fill 70% of a mid-size stadium not in Gainesville, leaving those L.A. yuppies of sports fandom to sulk courtside with just the Lakers for another year or two.  Hey, it’s not quite as crazy as shipping some poor team off to London, I’m just sayin’.  Anyway, the Dolphins remember Chad Henne all too well and why they got rid of him in the first place.  Hopefully that’ll lead them to a swansong victory at home during an otherwise forgettable year.

Detroit Lions (-6) at Arizona Cardinals - This matchup would have been a little intriguing earlier this season when both the Lions and the Cardinals still had high hopes for 2012, given their relative strengths and weaknesses on either side of the ball. But whereas Detroit has a mediocre defense to Arizona’s solid one (Sunday in Seattle aside), Arizona is absolutely no match for the Lions on offense.  An 0 - 10 slide is imminent.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3) - These surprising Week 14 victors will go head-to-head in the Too Little Too Late Bowl this weekend in San Diego.  They have a lot in common when you think about it: talented rosters not living up to expectations, an inordinate number of late game collapses, surprisingly good moments here and there.  It’s making my head spin, especially since only one of these teams can blow a fourth quarter lead.  When in doubt, go with the home team.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-3) - Uggh.  If you thought the Jets-Jaguars game was bad, here’s a matchup you can really forget about before it starts.  I wish I didn’t even have to make a pick here because the thought of guessing wrong and having to count this beyond-inconsequential draft pick positioning duel toward my record in any shape or form is nerve-jangling.  OK, hyperbole aside, how about the Raiders with extra rest at home against a team that just let the Cleveland Browns drop 30 points on them?

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5) - Well well well, the New York Jets could almost inexplicably still make the playoffs, and that would surely make them the 2011 Broncos (8-8) or the 2010 Seahawks (7-9) of 2012.  The Titans are still too mistake-prone to move up in the AFC ranks, but I really liked how that Tennessee defense played against the Colts in Indy last week. But because I've only picked one other team against the spread that really shouldn't be (Giants), I'm going with the Jets here, I guess.


Last Week's Record: 8 - 8
Season Record: 134 - 73 - 1

A Nazi-Analogy-Free Breakdown of the Saints Bounty Case

“Wait, what just happened?” is a perfectly reasonable way to describe Paul Tagliabue’s most recent ruling on the New Orleans Saints bounty case.  Who knew the Saints could successfully defend something?  Zing!  In the nuttiest of nutshells, Tags technically ruled in favor of Roger Goodell’s original findings that the Saints operated a pay-for-performance program that included rewards for injuring opponents.  He also found the Saints’ coaching staff culpable as well as three of the four defensive players who were singled out as ring leaders.  Then of course he lifted all player sanctions and exonerated Scott Fujita entirely from bounty disciplinary action.  Even more tellingly, he spent most of his 22-page argument more aggressively than passively slapping Commissioner Goodell on the wrist for the bounty findings Tags largely agreed with.  What gives?  Here are some Lady Blitz “quick” snaps on this matter:

Consider This a Mistrial - This ruling is still a head-scratcher to a public that, in matters like these, loves to rally with pitchforks around a preponderance of evidence much more than matters of plausible deniability.  While there is a wealth of evidence affirming that a bounty program existed in the Saints locker room, it is insanely difficult to draw an indisputable connection to specific players as Roger Goodell tried to do.  One would need to demonstrate several lines of evidence including 1) clear, tangible proof that players behaved differently on the field solely because of financial incentives than they would have otherwise; and 2) clear, documented proof that money exchanged hands between specific players for injury-related rewards.  This is why he so strongly shifts the focus of the case from player culpability to that of the broader coaching/managerial system.  It’s not that Goodell went after a wild goose, it’s that he didn’t have the evidentiary ammo to support singling out these four players with unprecedented punishment in the way that he had ample culminating evidence confirming the existence of a bounty system at large.  Further, no one in the league has been able to produce macro statistical proof that the Saints actually created more opponent injuries, personal fouls, or other measurable consequences of dirty play than any other team in the grand scheme of things despite the system in place.  So while individual instances like taking Kurt Warner and Brett Favre out in the 2010 playoffs seem obvious, these specific plays did not produce an extraordinary number of illegal hits/personal fouls or factor into a discernable longitudinal trend.  Remember, the Saints defense still sucks.

Inconsistency Is the Key - If you just can’t get enough coverage of Bounty Gate (ha!), I highly recommend Pro Football Talk’s article about the underlying message Tagliabue sent to Roger Goodell with this ruling.  At its crux, the document is more significantly a chastisement of Goodell’s shoot first, ask questions later handling of this case than it is about the Saints organization’s sins.  Yes, payment-for-injury bounties are morally reprehensible and to be discouraged categorically in the NFL. But the disciplinary consequences of the Saints’ program were applied so swiftly and harshly in response, one has to ask what historical basis exists to justify these unprecedented consequences and whether they were applied fairly here.  Tags shreds these premises by pointing to the league’s lesser actions in analogous situations.  The Patriots and Packers were found to have pay-for-performance systems in place in the mid-2000s, and were served [relatively] small fines to make amends.  A nearly-identical punishment was assigned in the case of the Patriots and the Broncos for their Spy Gate cheating antics.  There were no player or coach suspensions in any of these cases.  In terms of lying to league authorities, Tagliabue even hilariously points to the wrist slap Brett Favre got during his sexting investigation compared to the much more severe retribution the Saints received for their obstruction in the bounty case. More on hypocrisy in “quick” snap #3.  The point here is not that the Saints’ actions should be absolved because they did not foresee the magnitude of the punishments coming.  Rather, Tags argues that Goodell missed a huge opportunity to ingrain his anti-bounty policy proactively and pervasively throughout the league (and let due punishments stick) through clear, consistent communication to all teams and players about the policy and its consequences well in advance of using the nuclear sanction option.  He should have favored collective wisdom and due process, however drawn out and tedious, over hasty unilateral action, even if the players’ agreement allows the latter.  Instead, what we have is the appearance of a highly reactionary man who went from 0 to 60 to make an example of out a team that undermined his authority more so than of someone who is deeply concerned about protecting the league’s health and safety writ large through broad, consistent change management.

This Does Not Solve the NFL’s Safety Problem - I think it’s fair to classify this as a no-win situation beyond hobbling the Saints’ season and showing us the Commissioner’s new clothes.  At the end of the day, publicly flagellating one team for a bounty program, however well-deserved, will not bring the NFL any closer to resolving its underlying player safety problem.  To paraphrase a wise sage Stephen Colbert, injuring others is part of NFL players’ base pay too, and if this bounty issue brought anything to light about player safety, it is that it is nearly impossible to separate the “standard” player’s performance and injuries from what is allegedly over the top in its violent intent. While Roger Goodell purported here that a clean line could be drawn between these things, this league is in a sea of gray [and litigation] when it comes to protecting players from long-term injury by pretending that these consequences rest solely on an individual player’s intentions.  The league can continue to fine players for dangerous hits until Ndamukong Suh donates enough money to send 60% of Andorra to college, and that’s not a bad thing, but other players on other teams will continue to reap and sow injuries in the daily business of this game whether or not they pay a fine or receive additional pocket change.  In fact, the Goodell hammer on the Saints pales in comparison to his own decisions and actions regarding safety including the introduction of a full season of Thursday night games and the continuing push for an 18-game season, a refusal to negotiate in any way with former players suing for damages from injury, and letting replacement officials wreak havok for four weeks at the start of this season with their incompetence in controlling chippy play and calling illegal hits. Maybe a growing number of people will understand that now that this sad and unfortunate distraction is over.