February 3, 2018

Who Should I Cheer for in the Super Bowl? Reasons to Love and [Mostly] Hate the Patriots and Eagles

We’re less than a week away from Super Bowl LII and, well, these aren't exactly the kinds of lovable losers you hope to root for most years, but this is just where we are these days.  Patriots and Eagles fans have plenty to be excited about, but for that other 94%-ish of fans who’ve watched their own teams go down in predictable or agonizing fashion this year, you’re probably still on the fence about who to adopt until September finally rolls around.  Or not.  Because you're probably really tired of the Patriots. But for the sake of habit, fear not, dear reader! Here’s the fair and balanced Lady Blitz guide for you to weigh your options with Reasons to Love and [Mostly] Hate the Patriots and Eagles.

Also, I couldn't pull off a second post for my analysis and game pick, so look for that lagniappe at the bottom of this one.

Reasons to Love the Patriots 

They Haven’t Burned Any Orphanages to the Ground - Fact: No NFL team to date has ever conspired to burn an orphanage to the ground in a senseless act of child murder and destruction. That includes the Patriots!

They Haven’t Gotten Caught Managing an Elaborate Ponzi Scheme - I guess you can insert your own joke here about getting gouged on tickets and parking passes, but which NFL franchise can cast the first stone there? To my knowledge though, no one in the Patriots organization has gotten caught for carrying out massive financial fraud to rob unwitting investors of their retirement. If they are in fact funneling money from one account to another at consistently impossible return rates, they are doing a great job at hiding it. Keep it up, Patriots!

They’ve Gone Three Years Without a Cheating Scandal - Sure, lots of NFL teams have done shady things like pump in fake crowd noise and try to injure opponents for bonuses or regular old base pay, but the Patriots have gone three years without any cheating scandals to speak of. That’s significantly longer than an elephant’s gestation period or the tenure of a White House press secretary. The Patriots could pass the marshmallow test with flying colors if needed! 

They Always Put on a Darn Good Super Bowl - Okay, okay, okay, I’ll stop being so sardonic for a minute before we move on to what you really came here for. If there is one thing we can all hope for Sunday, it’s a good game, and the Patriots tend to be at the center of the craziest, most entertaining Super Bowls we’ve watched over the past two decades. There was that very first win back in 2002 when we were actually rooting for a scrappy underdog to upset the Greatest Show on Turf with their rookie sixth-round backup setting up the game-winning field goal as time expired. And another game-winning drive by Brady two years later after the Panthers whiffed on the kick-off that should have sent the game to overtime. And then Donovan McNabb allegedly hurling the Eagles into defeat on a last-gasp drive the next year. And two fourth-quarter circus catches by David Tyree and Mario Manningham to hand the Patriots their only two Super Bowl losses under Bill Belichick. And that crazy goal-line interception by Malcolm Butler in the final seconds of SB XLIX. And of course that seemingly impossible 28 - 3 comeback last year that we’ll still be talking about a decade from now. So if the Patriots’ Super Bowl past is any indication of what we can expect this weekend, you might not like the outcome, but you’ll certainly enjoy the ride.

Reasons to Hate the Patriots  

I Mean, C’Mon - I can’t believe I’m having to write this crap yet again for the third time in four years. To save a little time, here are all of the previous reasons I’ve given you to hate the Patriots that I can’t do a straight retread of today:

They Made Us Side with Deranged Eagles Fans and Conspiracy Theorists - As the Jaguars started signaling in the 4th quarter that they were going to blow it, I turned to my husband and said we were going to get the Super Bowl we deserve with the dumb Pats and the dumb Eagles. Sure enough, we’re now mired in a lesser-of-two-evils situation usually reserved for November, and the Patriots have given us no choice but to root alongside some truly insufferable conspiracy theorists and morally bankrupt Eagles fans. (If you don’t know what I’m talking about on the latter, keep scrolling.)  Ever since the early days of Spygate, Bill Belichick has brought on an army of grizzled nutjobs with twine and newspaper clippings who are dead set on discrediting every Patriots win with elaborate tales of cheating and cover ups orchestrated by the league office.  The amount of ink and air time spent on the Patriots' surreptitiously destroyed tapes, the ideal gas law and now inside ref jobs is both astounding and mind-numbing.  Regardless of how much factual merit these theories may have--and there is some--we've seen far too many normally reasonable people become Fatal-Attraction-levels of obsessed with the minutiae of the Patriots' every patently evil move.  It's kind of like when your dad goes to your tee ball game and gets a little too fired up about heckling the other team full of third graders (Note: not based on actual events of this blogger's life). Sure, you want to beat the other guys, but you're a little embarrassed by how big the veins bulging in your dad's neck are and kindly plan to walk home, thank you.  But as cringeworthy as all of this Patriots hatred can be, it's no match for New England's own "Well, Actually" fanboy army that gets high on its own persecution complex. Give me bloodied Eagles tailgaters and tinfoil hats forever on a desert island before I have to hear Bill Simmons say one more time how terribly unfair it is to get punished for winning all the time.

They Are Absolutely Going to Crush America’s Hopes Again - Just this postseason alone, the Patriots will have the chance to destroy the hopes and dreams of a third franchise that has never won a Super Bowl in pursuit of its nauseating sixth title. They’ve also done that to the Eagles, Panthers and Falcons in Super Bowls past so that Bill Belichick can gaze upon his latest Lombardi as though it farted at the dinner table. After Eli Manning somehow beat this team twice in February, you might have felt a little sympathy for Brady and Belichick to win just one more and go out on top against those cocky Seahawks in 2015. And then the Patriots did it again two years later like a badge of honor after being embroiled in their dumbest cheating scandal yet while the long-suffering Falcons redefined what a fourth-quarter meltdown could be. And now, they’ll almost certainly do it again to an Eagles team trying to pull off the scrappiest of upsets with Nick Foles filling in for injured MVP hopeful Carson Wentz. You’ll talk yourself into thinking that Philadelphia has the kind of deep pass-rushing rotation to stop 40-year-old Brady and that Foles has all the confidence in the world to repeat the kind of masterful performance he had in the NFC Championship against the top-ranked Vikings defense. But you will be wrong, and the Patriots will mount another double-digit comeback so they can talk about all the alleged adversity they’ve faced on the confetti-covered podium because an ESPN writer was mean to them one time, and we’ll all go back to work on Monday hoping to God Brady finally blows out a hip due to malnutrition from his goofy lentil diet so we can all move on. Speaking of, I look forward to seeing you right back here with new old Patriots hate material this time next year!

Reasons to Love the Eagles

They Are Embracing Their Underdog Spirit Animal - The most obvious foil the Eagles play to the Patriots is that they have never won a Super Bowl despite getting agonizingly close a few times in the past 52 seasons, and they'll come in as Vegas underdogs for the third time in a row this weekend.  All Philly did to get here was go 13-3 to earn the top seed in the NFC and totally obliterate the hot and heavily favored Vikings who were just one win from playing in the first-ever Super Bowl home game. You better believe they are using those Eyes Wide Shut get ups and +4 spread to keep the motivational fire roaring this week, and it could come into play in a big way on Sunday with most of the nation and [presumably] the crowd hoping they'll shock the world.  Having lost key players to injury including MVP front-runner Carson Wentz, the cards are stacked against this young and battered team going up against a quarterback and coach who will be here for an unfathomable eighth time.  But I'm not trying to be cliche when I say the Eagles absolutely believe they will finally win this one, and I am here for it.  You probably are too.

They've Got the Defensive Chops to Keep This Interesting - I'm not sure if this is something to be optimistic or deeply concerned about, but Tom Brady showed that he can still sputter against a good pass rush a couple weeks ago.  The Jaguars notched three sacks and seven quarterback hits and held the Patriots offense to just 3 of 12 third-down conversions.  They might have pulled off the upset too had it not been for that questionable pass interference call and a sad but inevitable 3rd-and-18 conversion.  The point is, Jacksonville definitely kept New England in check with their excellent defensive front, and Philadelphia has those goods (and arguably a more reliable offense) to keep this game in reach too.  Fletcher Cox is the long-time anchor to the Eagles' defense, but they've also got a deep rotation behind him that can cause mayhem well into the fourth quarter and a secondary that has tightened up significantly in recent weeks.  With extended rest, this squad was an absolute nightmare against two top ten offenses in January.  Their reign of terror against the Falcons and Vikings included four sacks and 19(!) QB hits, and they held both teams to less than half their average points scored per game this year.  If that stale old adage that defense wins championships still holds true, Philly will certainly have the edge again on Sunday against a Patriots offense that is otherwise nearly impossible to stop.

Doug Pederson Is a Worthy Coaching Opponent - Fun fact from the annals of Freezing Cold Takes: ESPN once ranked Doug Pederson as the worst coaching hire of the 2016 class.  Of the other six coaches hired during that offseason, three have already been fired and the other three won a collective 12 games this season, which is fewer than the Eagles alone if you're doing the math.  There were signs of a Philadelphia turnaround last season even if they weren't reflected in the team's win-loss record, but Pederson clearly brought this team to a new plane of existence in 2017 and showed just how valuable he is as a play-caller in adapting an effective game plan for Nick Foles these past few weeks.  Foles doesn't have the proverbial cannon arm or mobility that Carson Wentz does, but Pederson has gotten a ton of productivity out of his backup by shifting to a screen-heavy and quick-release style of offense that lets his deep array of skill players go to work with yards after the catch.  It completely confounded the top defense in the league during the NFC Championship.  He's proven every bit the quarterback guru the Eagles hired him to be and also a versatile play-calling strategist who has out-maneuvered many a great coaching mind already in two years.  No doubt Pederson's biggest test is yet to come against one hooded overlord this week, but he might just be up for the chess match.

Reasons to Hate the Eagles

Nick Foles Is Still QB Russian Roulette - There's no denying Nick Foles had his best game as a pro in the NFC Championship given the stakes and defensive opponent.  Maybe we shouldn't have been totally surprised - he once had a 27 TD, 2 INT campaign with the Eagles that has given him new life as a backup for years after.  But which Foles will show up in Minneapolis on Sunday?  The guy who can efficiently sling the ball downfield to open up run-pass options and keep defenses on their toes or the guy who just a month ago was throwing wounded ducks for less than five years per attempt?  You could make the argument that Foles just needed more time and reps to settle back into his full potential under Doug Pederson and his last game should now be par for the course.  Still, you just can't underestimate Bill Belichick's evil defensive mastermind, and you better believe he now knows every wrinkle Pederson threw into Foles' arsenal to make him look competent again. The minute Foles gets one-dimensional with a scheme the Patriots are ready for, this game is over.  Or the minute Foles turns back into a middling back-up like his career stats suggest rather than an occasionally brilliant gunslinger, Tom Brady will have an advantage he frankly doesn't need already.

They Tend to Blow It - Well, if last week's total defensive collapse for the Vikings and blown 10-point lead by the Jaguars are any indication, it's just a matter of time before the last Lombardi-less underdog crumbles before our eyes on Sunday.  The Eagles have a history of blowing big games that's almost as devastating as that of the Vikings, and there's no time like the present to let America down and become merely the doormat the Patriots will walk over to get their sixth ring.  Who can forget the last time Philadelphia was a contender, going to four straight NFC championships but coming away with one Super Bowl appearance and precisely zero wins?  Andy Reid's always-confounding clock management and Donovan McNabb's guts left the Eagles just short of the big scoring plays they needed in their biggest moments, and it seems more than a little likely that they'll end up in the same place again with their backup QB and second-year coach facing a literal dynasty.  Besides inexperience, if there's one thing to be pretty concerned about with Philly, it's that the central reason they could win this game--their defense--looks a whole lot different on the road than they do at home.  Having held their last two opponents to 10 and 7 points at the Linc, you might think the Eagles defense is primed for a big game against Tom Brady & co.  But during this season, they've allowed less than 14 points per game at home but nearly 24 points per game on the road, and the fast indoor turf in Minneapolis won't help them slow down the Patriots' skill players.  I want the Eagles to win just as much as you do, but there's a clear recipe for disaster here where Foles gets off to a slow start and Philly's defense gets worn out on long drives where they can't force sacks or punts.

Their Fans Are Actually Worse -You've already been closely acquainted with "Don't Hate Me Because I'm Beautiful" Patriots fans over the years because their team just won't go away and be miserable or even average.  But even with the Eagles' charming underdog mentality and Cinderella rise to the Super Bowl this season, their fans are still so, so very much worse.  In fact, it's verifiable fact that Philadelphia harbors the worst fans in all of major sports.  Their long list of priors includes the following: 1) immediately booing top draft pick Donovan McNabb who would only lead his team to eight winning seasons/playoffs, five NFC Championships and a Super Bowl; 2) cheering on Michael Irvin's career-ending injury; 3) setting up an actual jail and court in the Vet to handle the huge volume of game-day disorderly conduct; 4) (Phillies fan bonus!) intentionally vomiting on children because their parents complained about vulgar language; 5) booed Santa Clause; and just as recently as last week, 6) punching a police horse and pelting the Vikings team bus with eggs and bottles after they had already suffered an abysmal blowout loss.  There won't be enough Crisco in the world to keep this army of miscreants from destroying their own city if they win tomorrow night, and you'll probably be complicit in cheering them on simply because they aren't the Patriots.  Buckle up, Philly, and maybe drive your car off to a Walmart parking lot somewhere in New Jersey for the night just to be safe.

And the Game Pick!

In years past, I have done a separate post to analyze each team's strengths and weaknesses in terms of Xs and Os and issue my never-fail (except the last three times) game pick.  Unfortunately, I've run out of time, which is probably a good sign I won't be returning to regular-season posts next year, but there are some really great analyses out there that are far more nuanced and interesting than I could have mustered like this one.

So my pick is all about the power of the jinx for America's sake.  Nearly every time I pick the Patriots to win in the playoffs, they lose and vise versa.  So the Patriots are going to crush the Eagles and our souls so that we don't have to bother staying up late for the trophy ceremony.  Very kind of them!  Patriots 24, Eagles 20
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January 21, 2018

Playoff Picks: 2018 NFL Conference Championships

Well, Lady Blitz readers, let’s just get the obvious stuff out of the way. I have never wanted to write a football blog post less than I do this week after the Saints’ devastating walk-off loss to the Vikings on Sunday. My better side is trying to be happy for Minnesota. After all, this is a team that has gone 0 - 4 in the Super Bowl and had some of the most heartbreaking playoff losses ever. Who can forget the 15 - 1 squad that lost to the Falcons in overtime after kicker Gary Anderson missed his only field goal of the entire season? Or the Teddy Bridgewater-led team that was just one shanked chip shot field goal away from a big upset against the Seahawks two years ago? Or the one where Brett Favre threw a back-breaking pick when the Vikings were in range for a game-sealing field goal against those very Saints in 2010? If New Orleans put an iron thumb on the karmic scale that last time these teams met in January to get their sole Lombardi Trophy, maybe the bill was finally due. It sure felt like it when Everson Griffen deflected the ball off the back of his hand for a bonkers red zone interception, and when Willie Snead missed a wide-open Alvin Kamara, and when poor Marcus Williams made the worst tackling mistake I’ve seen this year during an otherwise stellar rookie season. And so life goes on, and hopefully Drew Brees has another good year or two ahead to try to be the last of 32 standing in February.

Now, onto the final four. If you’re wondering what my worse side has been up to compared to my alleged best side above, it’s still resenting the Patriots for getting to play Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles at home while the NFC yet again cannibalizes itself before it can even think about the Super Bowl. With three other teams having never won the big one headed to conference championships, one thing is clear for 97% of America: we’ll take anyone but the Patriots this Sunday and on February 4th when they inevitably crush the spirits of some other much less fortunate fanbase.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-7.5)

The Run-Down: The year is 2018. The Astros and Cubs have recently won World Series titles, President Donald Trump may be gearing up for an election battle against Oprah Winfrey, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are one win away from their first-ever Super Bowl appearance. And yes, Blake Bortles is partly responsible in a good way.

Why the Jaguars?: Sure, these Jaguars still have some obvious inconsistencies to deal with going into Foxborough, but don’t think for a second they’re scared of this David-and-Goliath matchup with the Patriots. They fed off of the Steelers’ overconfidence all last week and showed the world that their first win at Heinz Field wasn’t a fluke, nor was their 10-win season. Blake Bortles looked lightyears better making clutch plays downfield than he did during Wild Card weekend, and he’ll need that confidence to gut out another road win when the Patriots inevitably load up the box to guard against Leonard Fournette. No doubt the Jaguars would like to grind New England’s inconsistent front down with good power-running, but they also have the ability to wear the Pats out with Bortles’ scrambling tendencies when the going gets tough. Of course, the real story on Jacksonville’s upside is its defense. The Jaguars defense arguably matches up better with the Patriots offense than just about any other playoff team in the field this year. There isn’t much you can do to stop Tom Brady with a clean pocket, but things tend to go south when opposing defenses generate pressure without having to blitz. Jacksonville was second in sacks this season and showed no signs of slowing down with two sacks and seven QB hits against Ben Roethlisberger last weekend. Their rotation of pass rushers like Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus and Malik Jackson will keep the Patriots offensive line on its toes in trying to protect Brady for four quarters. Even if the Jaguars can’t generate sacks as often as they would like to against a team that is certainly expecting their attack, consistent pocket pressure alone may be key to creating turnovers as this opportunistic unit has done all year. Given that New England has had a down year defensively (and a defensive coordinator who's about to depart for Detroit), you can definitely see a scenario in which the Jaguars hold the Patriots to under 20 points and win.

Why Not the Jaguars?: Well, Derek, err, Blake Bortles didn't become a sitcom punchline overnight.  Although Bortles has padded his stats in garbage time with the best of the worst, he really hasn't had many signature wins in his four years in the NFL to match the endless draft-bust debate.  Dude was straight-up missing 2- and 3-yard screen passes to wide open receivers just two weeks ago that I could literally make.  Sure, he played a key role in putting up points and first downs last weekend against the Steelers, but the Patriots are a different, healthier animal with a defensive mastermind for a head coach.  They'll be sure to test Bortles with pressure and narrow, long-yardage passing lanes at every turn, and they racked up eight sacks against Marcus Mariota and a stout Titans offensive line just a week ago.  If there's another reason to be concerned about Jacksonville's chances (other than playing the most dominant Big 4 dynasty of all time on the road in a conference championship game they've made seven consecutive times), it's that their defense is relying heavily on turnovers and getting pretty generous with yardage and points these days.  In the past month, they've let the 49ers and Steelers hang a combined 86 points on them.  Had the Jaguars not had a red zone interception and fumble returned for a touchdown last weekend, they probably would have lost handily to Pittsburgh.  If they aren't able to generate sacks, defensive scores or turnovers against the Patriots, who had the second-fewest giveaways of any team this year, they'll be putting a whole lot more pressure on this offense to win a track meet, and that just won't end well.

Why the Patriots?: *Checks archives from past five years of blogging*  Hmmm... let's see here.  Likely third-time MVP winner Tom Brady at quarterback, QB and coach who've won five Super Bowls and 26 playoff games together, team that has won 10 of its last 11 home playoff games...  Yep, the veteran champion pedigree is all there to make this a nightmare matchup for the upstart Jaguars with a new coach, a young and unreliable QB, and no franchise playoff appearances in the past decade.  If you had questions about Brady's durability during a sloppy December, he squelched those with a 50-attempt, 300-yard, 3-TD performance against the Titans last week.  If you had questions about New England's ability to turn things around on defense after an uncharacteristically bad start, they've only allowed 20 points or more twice in their last 13 games.  They also hammered Marcus Mariota for eight sacks last Saturday.  And these guys are just freakin' lucky for no good reason.  They secured the top seed in the AFC by virtue of that awful catch rule against the Steelers in Week 15 and get to face the murderer's row of Mariota, Blake Bortles and then possibly Case Keenum or Nick Foles in pursuit of a sixth Super Bowl win.  Ok, I'm done with this section before my worse side gets any more bitter. To give credit where it is amply due, two of my friends who are diehard Pats fans were the first to reach out to console me when the Saints lost last weekend - they're great people whom I will be forever grateful to know!

Why Not the Patriots?: If you look at the few teams that have managed to beat New England in January in recent years (the Broncos twice and the Ravens if you're wondering), those teams have a lot in common with the Jaguars's strengths this year.  They put a lot of pressure on Brady in the pocket, won the turnover battle, and forced the Patriots into third-and-long situations frequently to get them off the field.  They also averaged about 30 rushing attempts despite having lackluster passing help from the likes of Joe Flacco and late-career Peyton Manning (although that obviously wasn't the case with the Broncos' record-breaking offense of 2013).  We have a season's worth of experience to know that "Sacksonville" can be very effective at keeping opposing offenses out of rhythm and won't be afraid to take risks that often lead to turnovers.  We also know that New England's defense can be had by the better running backs in the league like Le'Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt and LeSean McCoy, so they could be vulnerable to long, bruising drives down the field if Leonard Fournette starts getting to the second level where their linebackers have struggled.  With a few lucky bounces for Jacksonville and early success on that vaunted defense, New England could get shell-shocked into a bad game at the wrong time against a team they probably feel they have no business losing to.

Prediction: Given that I already sunk any chance of having a respectable record with my divisional round picks, I’m going to roll the dice on Jacksonville.  They've got some favorable matchups on both sides of the ball to exploit and they've got the kind of crazy swagger you need to think you can upset the Cobra Kai of the NFL. Jaguars 24, Patriots 23


Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Run-Down: One of these two historically downtrodden NFC franchises will have a shot to win the big one at long last.  They'll be led by two Jeff Fisher QB cast-offs of old (boy, was that guy a piece of offensive kryptonite or what?!) and two dynamic defenses that have their work cut out for them, backup QBs or no.

Why the Vikings?: Who would've thought back in September that a leading reason to favor the Vikings would be Case Keenum? Yet here he is, leading Minnesota to its first NFC Championship in eight years after an all-time gutsy performance in the divisional round. It's fair to say Keenum has been a more well-rounded, efficient (and experienced) player than Nick Foles has been this year, so he gets the head-to-head advantage in my book. And though Philly's defense looked a lot closer to its top-notch regular season form against the Falcons last week, the Vikings should take note of Tevin Coleman's stat line for ideas on an offensive attack. Although Atlanta inexplicably didn't try to give the ball to Coleman during their final red zone trip, he averaged an eye-popping eight yards per carry and accounted for a third of their offensive yards. Minnesota has a similarly shifty dual threat in Jerick McKinnon who can get extra yards in the open field and keep some pressure off the pocket in this one. On defense, the Vikings also have an edge here by most measures and have the ability to throw a lot of new wrenches into their scheme given that they are the only team in the NFL to play the same 11 starters over the past three seasons. With the ability to disguise different blitz and coverage plays or just play straight man-to-man better than just about anyone else in the league, they could frustrate the heck out of the inconsistent and still-reacclimating Foles with a home Super Bowl appearance in their sights. In sum, barring the kinds of crazy reversals of fortune the Vikings are known for in January, their talent and experience on both sides of the ball ought to give them more scoring opportunities in this one.

Why Not the Vikings?: Per that last sentence, there is still the historical tendency of this team to blow it when the chips are stacked in their favor. If they dodged a bullet against the Saints last week, one has to wonder whether they've used up all of that good karma and emotional energy before this deceptively simple road game. On the more tangible side of things, a weakness Philadelphia will definitely try to exploit in this one is in pressuring the quarterback. Against the Saints, Keenum had a passer rating of 117 when working in a clean pocket, but that rating was an abysmal 5.1 with an ill-timed interception when New Orleans' front line got to him. (P.S., Oh good Lord, why didn't we blitz him on every play on that last drive?!). If Philadelphia is as successful getting to Keenum this week as they were against Matt Ryan last week, it could take a lot of wind out of the Vikings' offensive sails, especially since favorite target/All Pro WR Adam Theilen is playing hurt. If this gets to be the slow-scoring slugfest it's built to be, Minnesota may ultimately have to rely on another up-and-down kicker to keep pace or punch in the go-ahead score at the end of this one on a rugged outdoor field. I'll wager that no one in the greater twin cities area wants it to come to that.



Why the Eagles?: There's no doubt that Mike Zimmer has proven to be a great coach for the Vikings, but Doug Pederson is arguably even better. He and his coaching staff transformed the Eagles into a top-five team on both sides of the ball and pulled off the alleged upset against a hot Atlanta team with some very crafty scheming around Nick Foles' strengths and weaknesses. No doubt they'll have some Xs-and-Os tricks up their sleeves with their three-headed rushing attack and deep pass rushing rotation to wear down the Vikings in the trenches and hopefully come out ahead on the turnover margin. And though a lot of people including myself have been hard on Foles for being little else than a game-manager, he was once responsible for an awe-inspiring 27 TD, 3 INT season with the Eagles in 2013 before getting locked in Jeff Fisher's quarterback-destroying Rams dungeon. He's gotten a whole lot more reps with a stacked group of receivers across all three skill positions since he first took over for Carson Wentz this season, and with Minnesota a bit banged up on defense, he might have just enough cushion to get the ball to matchup nightmares like Zach Ertz and Jay Ajayi to match or even best the Vikings on offense. Like I said above, Philly's defensive fortunes rest on their pass rush, and they've got the depth to challenge a good Minnesota offensive line for all four quarters. If there's one other place to look for an edge, it may be in how these two defenses play at home versus on the road. The Vikings led the league in fewest points allowed this season, but they're not as airtight away from U.S. Bank Stadium. They allowed just 12.5 points per home game but 19 points per game on the road - that's nearly a touchdown's worth of difference. The Eagles, on the other hand, allowed just 13 points per game at home and had one of their best efforts to date last week in holding Atlanta to a measly 10 points. With a raucous crowd behind them, Philly's defense could mean doom for Case Keenum's magical season.

Why Not the Eagles?: Well, the Eagles have just as much bad playoff karma as the Vikings have had in the Super Bowl era, and they aren't earning any favors in Vegas this week despite their #1 seed and homefield advantage because Nick Foles is starting. Foles managed to eke by last weekend with some lucky bounces, but the Vikings are stacked and experienced at every defensive position to take away his top 4-5 reads on every snap. It's hard to see Philadelphia winning this one without a top-notch, efficient game from their backup QB since I imagine Mike Zimmer is going to take away the run quickly with his stout defensive line. And though Philly's defense showed real signs of life in the divisional round, they've gotten burned on big-yardage deep balls and crossing routes quite a bit over this past month, which have been Case Keenum's bread and butter this season. Had it not been for that crazy deflected interception and Julio Jones falling down in the end zone on Atlanta's final drive last week, I probably wouldn't be previewing the Eagles at all in this round. Similar to the Jaguars' prospects in Massachusetts today, Philadelphia's defense is prone to living and dying by turnovers but facing a team that coughed up just 14 of those this season. They'll probably need more than a little luck to get out of this round alive, and that's just not something Eagles football ever seems to get at the right time.  Given Minnesota's wild finish last week, they definitely look more like a team of destiny right now compared to Philadelphia, if you believe in that sort of thing.

Prediction: You know what? I was 100% planning to pick Minnesota in this one when I started this post, but I think I've foolishly talked myself into the Eagles. That home/road defensive split between the two teams is significant, and I don't think we can fully overestimate how much last week's game could have taken a toll on the Vikings' health and stamina. This isn't the Super Bowl I want to see, but I'm betting (i.e., blindly following my gut) it's going to be a bizarro bad-QB-great-defense-field-goal-fest in Minneapolis. Eagles 20, Vikings 17
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January 11, 2018

Playoff Picks: 2018 Divisional Round

I hope you enjoyed a fairly eventful Wild Card weekend in which three of four games went down to the wire with a one-possession margin. This weekend? Each game features one quarterback who has had at least nine playoff starts versus Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles or Case Keenum, who collectively have three playoff starts. If these matches stay competitive, it will likely be because the newbie QBs get a measure of grace from their talented defenses, and some of those defenses are indeed scary enough to make it work. Let's give it some Lady Blitz analysis in this week's picks - apologies that my NFC ponderings far exceed my AFC ones. It's been a crazy week and I think we all feel pretty certain of what next week in Foxboro will look like...

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Run-Down: After pulling off the upset against the Rams last weekend, the Falcons are headed to Philadelphia as road favorites. Will Atlanta keep its hot streak going against the hobbled #1 seed, or will the Eagles ride that "nobody believes in us" magic to the NFC Championship?

How the Falcons Can Win: Sometimes I hate being right, and boy was I ever when the Falcons shut the high-flying Rams offense down with the speedy tackling of its linebackers and secondary last weekend. That should serve Atlanta well in this game too since the Eagles would love to get good production out of their ground and short-yardage passing game so they don't have to rest their offensive hopes solely on Nick Foles' shoulders. Even when MVP-hopeful Carson Wentz was still under center, Philadelphia was very balanced in its committee-style running game, so expect the Falcons to load the box and dare Foles to beat two great cornerbacks in man coverage. The more compelled Foles is to air it out, the more I like the chances of Desmond Trufant or Robert Alford garnering a drive-killing pick. When Atlanta has the ball, they might just try to rekindle some of that 2016 magic against the reeling Eagles secondary. In December, Philly allowed 10+ yards per pass attempt in three separate games, so I imagine Matt Ryan will try to test them early on some seam routes with Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu. Of course, the Falcons would rather run the clock out with four 10-minute drives or so, but they should be cautious with the Eagles' well-rested defensive line. If Atlanta stalls early on punts, that will give this beleaguered (and usually belligerent) fanbase a lot more spark. It'll also give the Eagles offense more time and cushion to keep pace in what they are probably hoping is a four-quarter slugfest. So I think the Falcons should stay fairly aggressive to take the wind out of those Lincoln Field sails and spread out a defense that would rather win in the trenches than in open space.

How the Eagles Can Win: Speaking of Philadelphia's defense, it's a good thing they've gotten some rest because they'll have their work cut out with Atlanta's multi-faceted attack. One potential weakness for Fletcher Cox & co. to exploit is guard Ben Garland. He was... not great against Aaron Donald in LA last week, and the last time these two teams met, the Eagles defense racked up two sacks, six quarterback hits and six tackles for a loss in a dominant victory. If Philly's front lines can recapture that disruptive magic, they'll put a lot more pressure on the Falcons offense to go into total pocket mode than the Rams ever managed to. Last time around, they relied heavily on blitzes, and although those don't seem to work too well against Matt Ryan these days, I bet DC Jim Schwartz has some disguises in mind to catch the up-and-down QB off guard on a key third down or two. And now for the big question: which Nick Foles is going to show up with the Eagles offense this time around? Foles got the job done in his first start this year with four TDs to show for it, but he averaged less than five yards per attempt and had completion rates of 50% and 36% over the final two games of the season. The only seeming vulnerability Atlanta has on defense right now is in the mid-yard game between the tick marks. Looking back to their last loss against the Saints in Week 16, the Falcons were excellent against the run but they let Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram put up 80 yards on 10 receptions in the screen game. If LeGarrette Blount can't outmuscle a stingy defensive line, I'd like to see Doug Pederson put more work on the nimble Jay Ajayi and Wendell Smallwood to keep it third-and-manageable and improve Foles' efficiency. Eagles fans also have to hope that the extra time off has given Foles more time to get used to his deep receiving corps. Although Alshon Jeffery might not see a lot of action with Trufant in his shadow, there are two other strong wide receivers and TE Zach Ertz to challenge Atlanta's depth in the secondary.

Prediction: I think I remember reading that this is the first time a 1-seed has been a home underdog to a 6-seed, and who can blame Vegas given how Nick Foles has played to date? I like Atlanta's advantages on both sides of the ball in this one, and I'd love another shot at throwing a good old-fashioned Lady Blitz jinx on them in the process. Falcons 24, Eagles 20


Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)

The Run-Down: Somehow, the Titans are still here. And they get to face a Patriots team that is yet again mired in a dumb off-the-field controversy and ready to take it out on the world. This is the perfect Saturday night game to probably do literally anything else you have planned this weekend.

How the Titans Can Win: Time to Titan Up and give this thing the David and Goliath treatment! If there's one thing Tennessee should have reason to be hopeful about, it's RB Derrick Henry stepping up and taking over in that wild comeback in Kansas City last week. He crushed the struggling Chiefs defense for more than 150 yards and a score, helping the Titans control the clock and slug their way out of an 18-point deficit. Sure, the Patriots defense has shown improvement since its surprisingly awful start, but they've still allowed more than 100 yards rushing five times in the past eight games including 143- and 183-yard games versus Pittsburgh and Buffalo respectively. Henry's productivity is key to keeping the Titans in scoring position and Tom Brady off the field, especially if Marcus Mariota does not continue to throw touchdowns to himself. Looking back to earlier games, the Patriots have also struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton, so let's hope Mariota throws a little caution to the wind with some designed runs and read options to keep the New England front from zeroing in on Henry. On defense, there's basically one thing that works against Brady other than Rob Gronkowski not playing: interior pass rush pressure. The Titans' sack totals are top five in the league this year, but they might have to get creative with how they line up their most productive sack artists Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey to make it work against a quarterback who will be expecting their presence.


How the Patriots Can Win: Well, I have a feeling New England is going to care a whole lot about what Derrick Henry is doing for the duration of this game. They will probably feel just fine daring Mariota to pass on every down even if he beats them a few times. With the QB playing just his second playoff game in a tough road environment, I think the Patriots will be fairly liberal with blitzes and run-stuffing specialists lurking until the Titans prove they can win outside of the land of exotic smashmouth. On offense, this feels like a Tom Brady-distributing-the-ball-everywhere special. Tennessee is good against the run and proved as much against Kareem Hunt last week. But they really didn't have a prayer until Travis Kelce left the game early, and now they'll have to face the most unguardable tight end in the game and his trusty WR sidekicks while their quarterback is out for blood. If things start of slowly, expect the Brady no-huddle death machine to come calling against a team that knows they're pretty darn lucky to have gotten this far.

Prediction: To beat the spread or not to beat the spread. That is the question. Patriots 31, Titans 20


Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)

The Run-Down: For those of us who would have laughed at this kind of matchup six months ago, let's not forget the absolutely stunning 30-9 whoopin' that the Jaguars laid on the Steelers at Heinz Field that started this crazy Jacksonville journey in the first place. Can they do it again, or will Pittsburgh have its revenge?

How the Jaguars Can Win: In the immortal words of Jason Mendoza, all the Jaguars really need is an offense, a defense and some rule changes. Well, they've still got a heckuva defense to keep this surprising playoff team afloat for the divisional round, and they have to be feeling pretty good about facing Ben Roethlisberger again after racking up five interceptions including two pick sixes the last time these teams met. The question for Jacksonville going into this game is how much they can afford to shift their focus to Le'Veon Bell, since you know Pittsburgh will be making every effort to stay more balanced this time around. Given how great Calais Campbell was at bottling up the Bills' rushing attack last weekend, I expect him to stick close to Bell in most early- and short-downs situations in hopes of keeping Roethlisberger on edge through the air. On offense, maybe the silver lining is that Blake Bortles can't possibly have another week as bad as the last one? The Steelers have gotten perilously thin at many defensive positions in the second half of the season, and it has shown up on the stat sheet with teams averaging nearly six yards per rushing attempt in the past five weeks. Although that sounds great for Leonard Fournette in principle, you better believe Pittsburgh will force Blake Bortles to throw that ball at every opportunity. He's already proven it's better to leave someone wide open two yards from the line of scrimmage than put less than three guys on Fournette. So Bortles will have to throw a lot, and he better get the easy stuff right. Heaven help us. To be fair, maybe those scrambles that worked so well last week will come in handy to divert linebackers away from Fournette in the read option - it might be their only [offensive] hope.

How the Steelers Can Win: I'm just going to yin-yang this one off of the Jaguars preview: 1) get Le'Veon Bell going -- and maybe use Antonio Brown as a decoy if he's still ailing; 2) throw the ball away when it's not there because you'll have a lot of opportunities to keep pace with Jacksonville's offense; 3) don't let Leonard Fournette do anything; and 4) let Blake Bortles do everything. Sorry Steelers readers, hopefully this team won't play down to the competition and you'll get a legit preview next week all about those killer Bs!

Prediction: I'm going to give Jacksonville some credence in what should actually be a fun offense-versus-defense rematch. But I think I've seen all I need to see from Blake Bortles to know how this one ends. Steelers 27, Jaguars 21


New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4)


The Run-Down: Things have changed a whole lot since these two teams met in Week 1, and the stakes are astronomical. The Saints will take on a tough road test in hopes of delivering what could be one last Super Bowl run for Drew Brees while the Vikings are hoping to become the first-ever home team in February.

How the Saints Can Win: First things first: in honor of the Saints' first playoff appearance and win since 2014, please enjoy this delightful video of a horse second-lining:
Now, Drew Brees had his best passing performance of the year against the mighty Panthers defense last Sunday, which bodes better for the Saints to have a chance against an even better Vikings defense this weekend. But acknowledging imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I think they need to look at how the Falcons' offense approached LA in the Wild Card round as a blueprint for this one. Atlanta was the definition of methodical against the Rams' talented defense, dinking and dunking for short- to mid-yard gains through the first half and only opening things up later after they had handily won time of possession and worn down the Rams front. In what will certainly be a loud, suffocating atmosphere for the road team, the Saints are better served going the death-by-1,000-papercuts route than trying to get too aggressive early against All Pros Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith in the secondary. I think that will translate into more bunch formations, pick plays and screens to create separation for New Orleans' less-heralded receivers. On defense, a weird irony is that the Saints might perform better here than they did at home last week. While I'm sure they appreciated the noisy confines of the Superdome, it seemed apparent they blew more than a few assignments because of the crowd noise. They'll need to get crystal-clear on who's covering the Vikings' many weapons in this one to keep the surprisingly good Case Keenum from getting comfortable. Minnesota doesn't have many weaknesses anywhere including on offense, but their three losses this year have a few things in common: consistently disrupting the pocket and breaking up passes in the secondary. As good as Cam Jordan has been, he'll need a career day in creating sacks and pressures at the line of scrimmage to put more heat on the first-time playoff QB. Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley also have the chops to take Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen out of play, but the question will be how the Saints' second tier handles that of the Vikings offense in the middle of the field.

How the Vikings Can Win: As if they needed it, Minnesota's defense got a little lagniappe during their Wild Card bye when New Orleans lost starting lineman Andrus Peat with a broken leg. With the Vikings' spectacular secondary, I can definitely see Mike Zimmer shifting the game plan to pick on those offensive line second- and third-stringers early to feed the home crowd and get Drew Brees off his game from the first snap. Knowing how good the Vikings are in man coverage, don't be surprised to see them throw blitzes and extra run-stuffers into the mix throughout the afternoon as well. Much has and will be said this week about how New Orleans' defense has improved since these teams last met in Week 1, but I imagine it was encouraging for Minnesota fans to see how the Panthers offense carved the Saints up in the middle of the field with Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen despite having few options left at receiver. The Vikings have a parallel set of weapons with dual-threat running back Jerick McKinnon and the ever-productive Kyle Rudolph who can challenge New Orleans' thinning linebacker corps. And as good as Case Keenum has been to this point, Minnesota's coaching staff shouldn't underestimate the need for him to settle into the biggest game of his career to date. The Saints secondary has been very opportunistic with passes that are even slightly off the mark, so going with high-percentage mid-range options will both wear out those overworked linebackers and give Keenum the confidence he needs to dial up another great performance.


Prediction: Eh, if I was being realistic (which I am emotionally preparing for anyway), I'd say New Orleans has too many disadvantages in this matchup to beat the home team. But hey, it's my dang team and maybe Case Keenum will finally turn back into a pumpkin to add to the Vikings' latest chapter of postseason misery. Saints 20, Vikings 14
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January 4, 2018

Playoff Picks: 2018 Wild Card Round

Happy NFL Postseason, dear readers!  Let's just start by acknowledging what an insane postseason this will be.  You might want to repent all sins and get your prepper bunker in order because the Rams, Jaguars, Titans and Bills are all in the playoffs while the Packers and Seahawks are both sitting at home for the first time since 2001.  Without further adieu, here are my breakdowns and predictions for each Wild Card matchup this weekend:

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

The Run-Down: Sexy, nationally relevant teams these are not, but they've got a lot of underdog appeal and some x-factors to keep an eye on in this first Wild Card bout.  The name of the game will be consistency for two teams that have looked brilliant at some points this year and pretty dang hapless at other times.

How the Titans Can Win: In my mind, this game starts on defense for the Titans.  They've got a verified ball hawk in safety Kevin Byard, who leads the NFL with 8 interceptions this season, and if Tennessee can control the line of scrimmage against the run, they'll have a better shot at getting extra possessions with Kansas City punts and maybe a turnover or two to help their struggling offense.  Luckily, the Titans are a top-five defense in terms of rush yards allowed, so they have a better shot than most at keeping Kareem Hunt in check and allocating a little more help to covering favorite targets Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in the backfield.  On offense, Tennessee would do well to air it out a bit more than they like to with their "exotic smashmouth" style, even if it's a risky prospect at Arrowhead.  With DeMarco Murray out and the Chiefs struggling at times in the secondary, Marcus Mariota should open up some spread and play action formations to keep the defense honest and put more pressure on Alex Smith & co. to trade touchdowns.

How the Chiefs Can Win: Ask any Chiefs fan or Hunt fantasy owner what it takes for this team to win, and the answer is a productive ground game on early downs.  You may recall that Kansas City sprinted to a league-best 5-0 start with quality wins over the Patriots and Eagles before nosediving on a 1 - 6 slide.  The key difference between those two legs of the season?  Teams realizing they needed to load up on Hunt at the line of scrimmage and force Alex Smith into three downs of long-yardage passing.  KC's offense flows best when Andy Reid can get creative with presnap motions and misdirection, but that only works when opposing defenses aren't 95% sure Smith is going to check it five yards downfield.  As good as the Titans have been against the run this year, they are pretty awful in defending the screen, so that could become de facto game plan for the elusive Hunt in this one anyhow.  On defense, the Chiefs have been generous giving up yards on the ground and through the air and thus have relied heavily on turnovers to get the edge on opponents this season.  In fact, they have 24 takeaways in their wins this year compared to just two in their losses.  Luckily, they are catching Mariota during his worst season to date in terms of interceptions and QB rating, so if Kansas City can get consistent pocket pressure going, they have a good shot at generating another pick or two that could make a big difference in this one.

Prediction: Based on how these teams have played in the second half of the season, this game could be a low-scoring one with lots of long drives to trade blows.  At this stage, I just think the Chiefs are more talented and less vulnerable to fizzling out on offense compared to a Titans squad that has limped past lesser opponents to get this far.  Chiefs 17, Titans 13


Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

The Run-Down: This might just be the most intriguing matchup on the Wild Card schedule this weekend between last year's NFC Champ and this year's stunning turnaround story.  With two very balanced teams full of playmakers that are heating up at the right time, the winner might end up being the dark horse to take the NFC this year.

How the Falcons Can Win: There isn't a team out there that wants to face the NFL's top-scoring offense in with an MVP-level running back like the Rams in the first round, but Atlanta has a better defensive matchup here than most.  They've held their opponents to less than 100 yards five times in the past six weeks including the run-heavy attacks of the Saints (twice) and Panthers, and they are stingy and speedy when it comes to open-field tackling.  Linebacker Deion Jones in particular has become the disruptive anchor to the Falcons defense over that time frame with two interceptions and 56 (!) combined tackles - six of those for a loss.  Expect the athletic Jones to have an active day trying to keep Todd Gurley and the Rams' sneaky-dangerous screen game in check.  On offense, the understatement of the month is that the Falcons have got to get more productive really fast to have a chance, and they'll have to do it with DPOY candidate Aaron Donald lurking on the line of scrimmage.  I think it'll have to start with sending some extra help to the offensive line. The Falcons will be dealing with a banged up Alex Mack and without TE Levine Toilolo and guard Andy Levitre, so they may have more success using their running backs to block in the pocket and get out quickly in the screen game to wear out that mighty LA front rather than running it up the gut.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Ryan break out the no-huddle early to keep the Rams' defense on its toes and keep himself upright if the hobbled Atlanta line can't do it.

How the Rams Can Win: As counterintuitive as it seems, the Rams might not want to fall too much in love with their run game if they can't get it going early in this one.  I think Todd Gurley will have a harder time slipping tackles against the Falcons' second level than he did during his fantasy playoff tear in December, and LA will also want to give QB Jared Goff some high-percentage options early on to settle into his first postseason appearance.  Using Gurley as a decoy for other playmakers like Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp to step up could open things up for him and the Rams' high-flying but young offense later in the game.  Plus, this is a team that thrives on getting big plays off and big leads early to force lesser offenses like the recently-struggling Falcons to turn one-dimensional for this defense to terrorize.  On that side of the ball, you'll know if LA has the upper hand if they can get pressure on Matt Ryan early on with their interior front.  As mentioned earlier, the Rams will be up against some second- and third-stringers at the line of scrimmage, and as tempting as it may be to send extra defenders the Falcons' way, Ryan has been excellent against the blitz the past couple of years.  He hasn't been as accurate in tight windows though, so sending versatile linebackers like Alex Ogletree into coverage more often could put Atlanta in more long-yardage downs and limit their playbook.

Prediction: Maybe I'm wanting to dust off the ole' Lady Blitz jinx that cursed the Falcons in that last Super Bowl, but I actually think they can win this one despite the odds.  They've got a fast, athletic defense that can limit the Rams' success on big plays, and LA has a lot more playoff first-timers on their staff compared to an Atlanta squad that made it to the big one just a year ago.  There's also that whole backup kicker issue for LA that could matter a lot if this one's close, so I'm taking a chance on the unheralded visitors.  Falcons 27, Rams 22


Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)

The Run-Down: The "Hell Hath Frozen Over" Bowl kicks off on Sunday afternoon where the Jaguars will host their first home playoff game since 1999.  Incidentally, that's also the last time the Bills made the postseason, so expect a lot of "just happy to be here" love for these beleaguered fanbases as they vie for the opportunity to get demolished by the Patriots or Steelers next week. 

How the Bills Can Win: As much as I've enjoyed every bit of these team and fan videos of the wildly improbable moment that Andy Dalton sent the Bills to the postseason, they've got the toughest odds to advance this weekend by far.  They'd certainly have a better shot if LeSean McCoy were 100%, but he's day-to-day with a Week 17 ankle injury, which means it's Tyrod Taylor versus one of the very best pass defenses in the league.  In an uphill battle all the way, I think Buffalo should come to Jacksonville with a lot of read-option tricks up their sleeves that the Jaguars don't have film on.  They need every bit of separation they can get in the secondary to move downfield however they can get it.  But Taylor should also be prepared to throw the ball away and take a sack or two when the plays aren't there because if the Bills are going to win, it'll be because they dare Blake Bortles to sustain a ton of long drives without mistakes.  As daunting as things could be when the Bills’ offense is on the field, they’ve got a few silver linings to anchor their hopes and dreams when the defense takes the field. If Buffalo can at least contain Leonard Fournette on the ground (and that is an if), they’ll have ample opportunities to go after Bortles with Tre’Davious White on their side. If the last few weeks are an indicator,  Bortles is on a pick-prone downswing, and it might take just one or two back-breaking turnovers on the wrong side of the field to flip the fortunes of this one in the Bills’ favor. It’s tough to see Buffalo winning the first-round war if they can’t win the turnover battle in Jacksonville though.  Or if they decide to start Nathan Peterman again...

How the Jaguars Can Win: It’s no secret that the Jaguars offense runs through Leonard Fournette, and he could feast big-time on a Buffalo defensive line that allowed nearly 125 rush yards per game this season. The more Fournette can do the heavy lifting and keep Bortles to managing easy downs, the more likely this game will turn into a home team blowout. Even if the point differential is tight, Bortles would be best served taking only what the Bills give him based on how favorable this game is for Jacksonville’s defense. Speaking of, they might just get to have their cake and eat it too if LeSean McCoy is hobbling around and they get to focus their attention on Tyrod Taylor alone. Taylor is a solid quarterback when it comes to protecting the football and improvising on his feet, but if the Jaguars can devote more defenders to spy on him, they’ll force this offense out of its comfort zone and into a lot more long-yardage pocket passing than Taylor’s been asked to do all season. Per the above, the x-factor for Jacksonville’s defense is to expect some new wrinkles from a Bills team without much to lose and keep those lines of communication open on the field to make in-the-moment adjustments.

Prediction: If it wasn’t patently obvious from the above paragraphs, I really don’t like this matchup for our Cinderella Bills, as great as it would be for them to pull off the upset for their degenerate tailgating mafia. Tune in early to see two smitten fanbases experience the rare joy of extra football and then maybe go clean out your closet when that Jaguars defense makes things ugly. Jaguars 33, Buffalo 14


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

The Run-Down: It's Panthers-Saints 3.0 for what should be a heated, physical battle in the trenches at the Superdome.  The Saints have the regular-season sweep and a raucous homefield advantage on their side, but the third time could be the charm for a battle-tested Carolina squad.

How the Panthers Can Win: If there's one thing that keeps this New Orleans fan up at night about Carolina, it's that this is the first time the Panthers will start bonafide Saints-killer Greg Olsen in this season's head-to-head series.  Olsen showed what he’s still capable of in Week 15 when he carved up the Packers defense for 116 yards on 9 catches. With Carolina getting dangerously thin at receiver, expect Cam Newton's favorite target and rookie RB Christian McCaffrey to take on a more prominent role in the passing game in this one, especially on third downs.  Bottom line: the Panthers need production through the air however they can get it to keep the Saints from crowding the line of scrimmage where Newton and Jonathan Stewart have typically given this team an edge.  On defense, Carolina will have to do a lot better against the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara than they did during the regular season to avoid a shootout or blowout.  The two Saints RBs combined for more than 250 yards from scrimmage the last time these teams met in the Superdome, and you better believe the Panthers' linebacking corps have been planning for how to limit their yards after contact on Sunday, even if they sacrifice some pass coverage as a result.  As good as New Orleans' offense has looked at times this season, they are just less efficient than they used to be when Drew Brees is forced to take over, and focusing on the run is a gamble worth making for Carolina. 

How the Saints Can Win: Given those stats on Ingram and Kamara above, you, Luke Kuechly and I all know the Saints want to run the ball for 35+ minutes in this one.  Similar to my advice for the Rams, I think New Orleans has to be willing to adapt quickly if the running game stalls in this one.  I wouldn't be surprised if Brees tries to burn the Panthers secondary early with a bomb or two to Ted Ginn off of play action to back Carolina off the line of scrimmage.  It'd also help Brees out a lot if anyone not named Michael Thomas steps up in the receiving game to spread that stout Panthers front out even more ::coughs passive aggressively at Willie Snead::.  When facing the rollercoaster ride that is Cam Newton and Carolina's offense, the Saints need some A+ edge rushing to keep that dynamic QB in the pocket and seeing ghosts.  During these teams' first meeting, New Orleans sacked Newton four times and generated a whopping six turnovers in the process.  Given similar results for the Panthers last week with the division title on the line, the Saints may be catching Newton at the right time to go blitz-heavy and disrupt the Panthers' rhythm before it ever starts, even if they sacrifice a couple of big plays in the first quarter.

Prediction: I never feel good about facing a divisional opponent, especially one that can be so inconsistently good or bad from one week to the next.  Nevertheless, with Carolina running out of receivers and looking vulnerable under center, I think the Saints can do enough on defense no matter how well-prepared the Panthers are to handle Ingram and Kamara to deliver a win to that rocking Superdome crowd.  Saints 24, Panthers 17

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