NFL Week 2 Picks

Welp, it's always great to gloat about an awesome week for picking, as I went 13 - 3 on straight up wins and 3 - 0 against the spread with my Lovely Lady Locks!  But it's also a near certainty that I won't be able to repeat that kind of performance this week, especially because this will be a fly-by-night crank it out kind of affair.  Anyway, here are my Week 2 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) - From the rivalry that brought you Fail Mary and one of the most memorable NFC Championships ever played, the next chapter in the Seahawks-Packers saga is our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! While Seattle has owned this series for the past several years, their prospects are suddenly starting to look murkier. They’ll be playing at Lambeau for the first time since 2009, quite possibly without 50% of last year’s Legion of Boom, and judging by how awesome the Seahawks’ defense made Nick Foles look last week, they’ll have their work cut out with a wrathful Aaron Rodgers who probably still can’t acknowledge that January 18, 2015 ever existed. I’m definitely nervous about Green Bay’s ability to keep Marshawn Lynch in check on Sunday night, but it just feels like fate owes the Packers a win this time after so many cruel losses in recent years.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - It finally happened - the Chiefs are favored against the Broncos! It took a KC smackdown in Houston and a lackluster Peyton Manning performance in Week 1 to get heads turning the other way, but I’m sure the denizens of Arrowhead will take it. I don’t have a statistically sound method for picking a winner here, so I’m going on the facts that 1) Denver’s offensive line gave up four sacks last week, 2) the Chiefs have a freakin’ mean pass rush, and 3) Arrowhead gets rocking in prime time if last year’s Monday night destruction of the Patriots is any indicator.

New England Patriots (-1) at Buffalo Bills - The Pats might have put on an offensive clinic in their season opener, but they ought to be walking into the Ralph with eyes wide open after the Bills pass rush completely dismantled Indianapolis last Sunday. For variety’s sake in the AFC East, I would love to see Buffalo pull off another *slight* upset against their long-time divisional nemesis and I see this being a tight game going into the final 15 minutes. If there’s a wrench in the defensive machine that was near-perfect last week though, it’s that the Bills won’t be able to blitz Tom Brady the way they did with Andrew Luck. Brady has consistently been among the best in the league against quarterback blitzes and went 5-for-5 with two TDs in this scenario against the Steelers last week. I go Pats and continue my un-jinxing of the Bills.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - It's September, which usually means the Bengals are looking dominant while the Chargers are making their late-season rally as difficult as possible. As is so often the case for Cincy, this game will probably come down to which Andy Dalton shows up.  My best guess is that San Diego will get caught sleeping during this early start time and it'll be enough for the Bengals to keep Philip Rivers & co in check for the rest of the game.  Flip this result if these teams meet again in January.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5) - Division rivals coming off of two insanely weird prime time games last week? Sounds like a winner to me! Beyond the DeMarco Murray traitor/revenge plot, I have a feeling this game will be all about emerging stars. Dallas will have to get things done without Murray or Dez Bryant, who’s out with a broken foot for a while. And Philly is of course still working out the kinks with a new cast of characters who shined at times and faltered in Atlanta on Monday. With the Cowboys missing some key players on both sides of the ball, I just don’t see their grinding style of power running and clock management getting it done this time against an Eagles offense that has had little problem marching down the field at lightning speed when needed.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (-3) - The Ryan Mallett era is here, you guys!  Maybe. Goodness, I don't trust either of these offenses against two pretty good defenses.  There's a chance that Luke Kuechly will still be out with a concussion, which could give the Texans just enough breathing room to squeak by while J.J. Watt takes Michael Oher's milk money on the other side of the ball.  So the Texans.  Maybe.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) - I was very impressed with the 49ers' opener last Monday - almost as impressed as I was with Autralian rugby writer Mike Cleary's live blog of just how weird American football is as he watched Jarryd Hayne's debut waaaay across the pond.  If they can recreate that bruising power on both lines of scrimmage, the Steelers will be toast.  But with Pittsburgh getting extra rest and having plenty of weapons in the passing game, I'll have to see another Niners upset before I get on the Jim Tomsula train for real.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) - Conversely, what to think of the Vikings after they were dominated from start to finish in Santa Clara?  As I wrote earlier this week, that all hinges on whether Minnesota's offensive line can glue the pieces back together before Haloti Ngata and Ziggy Ansah take another hammer to it.  On Detroit's end, that defensive pressure could go a long way, but so could a breakout game from Ameer Abdullah.  He had flashes of brilliance in Week 1, but he could get a whole lot more people talking with a big day against a team that gave up 230 (!!!) yards on the ground last week.

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Chicago Bears - Losing Andre Ellington for a few weeks could make life a bit harder for the Cardinals, but Bruce Arians always seems to find a way with this team. Even if Arizona struggles a bit to put offensive points on the board against John Fox's new-look Bears, the Cards' defense should have a field day with Jay Cutler and friends. They hit hard and have no problem exploiting mistake-prone quarterbacks.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5) - Oy, I cannot tell you how conflicted I feel about seeing big potential in a hated division rival. The Falcons defense came out swinging last week against Chip Kelly's points machine and found a balanced attack on offense with a heavy dose of Julio Jones and Tevin Coleman.  It's pretty much exactly what I've feared going into this season.  If the Giants have a chance to save face this week after a deeply embarrassing collapse in Dallas, it'll be because Odell Beckham has one of those games to match Julio's production.  But ODB will probably have to line up with Desmond Trufant, who is getting closer to "shutdown corner" status every year.  Lawd I hope I'm wrong.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7) - That Jets defense sure looked good as advertised last week so my interest is piqued given how great Todd Bowles has been with the Cardinals before coming to the Meadowlands.  One small caveat: the Colts are not the Browns, and they probably won't cough up four fumbles against Gang Green the way Cleveland did after losing Josh McCown under center immediately.  It may not be the prettiest game for Andrew Luck, but he should be able to get the job done at home in prime time.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-10.5) - After being brutalized by Arizona’s defense for 60 minutes, I’m guessing the Saints will be happy to take their chances against a Bucs team that gave up 4 TD passes in a single half to a rookie quarterback at home last week. Of course, Jameis Winston should have an easier go against New Orleans’ reeling defense too, but let’s hope the mistakes keep coming for the young QB in a hostile road environment. I can’t see this Saints’ defense helping pitch a blowout as the point spread suggests, but I can see Drew Brees outdueling a young and presently floundering quarterback in Dome Sweet Dome.

Tennessee Titans (-1) at Cleveland Browns - Speaking of, after eating Winston’s lunch last Sunday, Marcus Mariota will make his second stop on the Heisman QB head-to-head tour against Johnny Manziel this week! (And yep, he’ll get Cam Newton later this year too). It’s still too early to know how far the Titans and Mariota will get this season, especially as opposing defenses get more intel on Ken Whisenhunt’s new system, so I’m trying not to get too hyperbolic here. But the ex-Duck has to be feeling a lot more confident than Manziel going into this game, and the Browns are still the Browns.

St. Louis Rams (-3.5) at Washington Redskinks - Be on the lookout for more Jeff Fisher trolling about that fateful RG3 trade in 2012, though at this point, even he'd probably admit it'd be punching down against these utterly pathetic Redskinks.  If Robert Griffin is looking for a silver lining this week, it'd probably be that he and his ligaments won't be anywhere near the Rams' front seven now that he's on the scout team.  Sigh.

Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Oakland Raiders - The Raiders offense looked pretty rough against Cincy last Sunday, but they might get a little relief against a Ravens defense that is sans Suggs and has nada Ngata (I’ll show myself out now). It’d be great to see some Amari Cooper highlights anhow. But with much of Oakland’s secondary ailing after making Andy Dalton look competent last week, I see Flacco getting back on track as he often does after an abysmal showing.

Miami Dolphins (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Meh to this game and everyone trapped in any part of Florida's regional viewing areas every week.  At least Orlando finally broke free after years of unbridled torture.  Getting back to the point, the Dolphins are fine, the Jaguars are not.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 2, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Cardinals -1.5 over Bears
• Titans -1 over Browns
• Rams -3.5 over Redskinks

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Straight Up Record: 13 - 3
Against the Spread: 3 - 0