NFL Week 1 Picks

Rejoice, ye Lady Blitz readers for today marks the official beginning of the NFL season, and my laptop was only 80% destroyed by marinade!  Let's get right into it with these Week 1 picks fresh off the presses:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7) - If there’s any team that was hoping we’d just let sleeping dogs lie this week, I’m guessing it would be the Steelers. With Tom Brady’s Ballghazi suspension overturned and ESPN dropping a very curiously-timed follow up report to Spygate, I’m guessing the reigning Super Bowl champs are going to drop a metric ton of brimstone and hellfire on PIttsburgh tonight. And with the Steelers missing key starters from injury and suspension, this might well be a runaway rout. Nevertheless, for those of you with a morbid fascination with grisly demises, this season opener gets Lady Blitz Game of the Week honors!

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills - Next up, a potential classic clash of styles in Buffalo. The Colts are of course anchored by a big-production passing attack with Andrew Luck, while the Bills would like you to forget about both quarterbacks on the field with a very mean pass rush. I would absolutely not be surprised to see the Bills pull off the upset given Rex Ryan’s well-known spoiler superpowers, but I’ll still take Luck over Tyrod Taylor et al any day. Plus, for my Buffalo readership, this team always does better when I don’t pick them.

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - For once, I am thrilled to be in the Titans’ regional viewing area. Kudos to you NFL schedule-makers out there for giving us a juicy and rare dual-rookie QB debut. And who didn’t have fun watching Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston face off in the college playoffs back in January, other than those Florida State amoral cretins fans of course? Tampa Bay should absolutely win this game given much better all-around talent than Tennessee, but I have a feeling Famous Jameis won’t make it easy on them. If Mariota’s got a Week 1 advantage, it’s that he’s more conservative and accurate than Winston as a passer, so I envision a tight game that hinges on the young gun who makes the fewest mistakes.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4.5) - Ravens fans would probably like to forget the last time their team visited Mile High - it ended with a Peyton Manning 7-TD MVP campaign. There are plenty of questions around Manning’s health status these days - his wobbly ducks certainly looked a little more wounded in the preseason than they have in previous years. But I like Denver in this one for a couple reasons: 1) they’ve got some power-running chops versus a defensive line without Haloti Ngata; and 2) Baltimore is starting from scratch with a young and inexperienced set of receivers that probably still need time to gel.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6) - For a while there, this storied rivalry was a laughing stock with few consistently good prospects. But last season, the Giants found a legitimate star receiver and the Cowboys finally made good on years of stockpiling talent at the line of scrimmage. I’m not yet confident New York will be able to turn things around after a slew of injuries on defense, so I’m giving Round 1 this season to the sturdier Cowboys.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Green Bay Packers (-7) at Chicago Bears - Speaking of rekindled rivalries, John Fox has his defensive turnaround work cut out for his Bears' debut against the Packers in Week 1. I could see Green Bay walking into this one a bit overconfident since they’ve owned Chicago nearly every time a healthy Aaron Rodgers has taken the field, but when push comes to shove, I expect the Packers to break away by the fourth quarter.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-1) - This could be a sneaky-good game depending on how you feel about football in the trenches.  Both teams certainly have stars and potential heading into 2015. For the Texans, J.J. Watt's mere presence should be enough to trick Alex Smith into some premature dumpoffs while Brian Hoyer is a decent if not astoundingly great replacement for Ryan Fitzpatrick.  But the Chiefs come in with what looks like a strengthened offensive line, receiving threat and plenty of defensive punch of their own.  Especially as Houston sorts things out with a new quarterback in Arian Foster's absence, I like Kansas City having a solid road showing this week.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) at St. Louis Rams - Hand it to the Rams last season for pulling off a tremendous upset against their toughest divisional foe. And with Nick Foles at the helm and a defensive front somehow even more brutal than in years past, St. Louis is in as good of a position as ever to fight the Seahawks to the death again.  Nevertheless, I see Seattle expecting the unexpected this time around and edging the Rams out with better talent on offense.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) - As much as I'd like to homer this one away for my Saints, I'm pretty darn nervous about that defense.  They looked discombobulated all preseason long and will have to find a way to get stops without Junior Galette's pass rush or Keenan Lewis in the secondary.  With Carson Palmer back at full strength and Bruce Arians having several months to dream up new schemes, the Cardinals' offense just looks too good for New Orleans' rebuilt defense to handle.

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (-3) - Similar to the Saints, the Lions will have something to prove on defense after losing Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in the offseason. Of course, their defense was great to begin with last year, so all is not lost.  This feels like a coin toss game to me that depends in large part on which of these two quarterbacks shows up or perhaps whose rookie RB is ready to breakout after lots of preseason buzz.  So heck, how about the home team?

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Atlanta Falcons - Change is in the air with new coaches, quarterbacks and lots of new skill players on both sides of the ball for these two teams.  Vegas is understandably going with the proven coach and the offensive juggernaut that steamrolled everyone else in the preseason. I can't blame them, but I'm willing to take a chance on a Falcons team that has nowhere to go but up on defense that ought to be energized by a promising coaching regime at home.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-3) - It's not too late to pick out a good book if you're thinking of watching this game on Sunday.  Oof.  But if you are, I'll take the Jets' defensive prowess over Cleveland's QB downgrade from Brian Hoyer to Josh McCown.  It's hard to fathom what they were thinking.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Washington Redskinks - I could not find a picture of the Miami Tsuhnami that I liked, so enjoy this virtual approximation below! Ndamukong Suh should have lots of fun against what could end up being the worst offensive line in the NFL.  I can feel Jay Gruden's seat getting closer to boiling.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars - This has suddenly become a more interesting prospect than we might have thought.  With the Panthers' offensive weapons diminishing and signs of life emerging for the Jaguars' skill players, it may not be as lopsided of an affair anymore. But Carolina's defense is still worthy of eating Blake Bortles alive.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders - Andy Dalton vs. Khalil Mack should be making Bengals fan shudder a bit.  The beleaguered Red Rifle just isn't good under pressure, and OC Hue Jackson would do well to call Jeremy Hill's number early and often.  Still, I like Cincy's secondary enough to frustrate Derek Carr and his new friend Amari Cooper while Dalton drives his team to a few more field goals.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers - And finally, we will get our first clue as to how low the 49ers might go this season.  I picked the Vikings to make the playoffs, so you know I've bought into that hype.  With so much turnover on defense, the Niners could struggle mightily against Minnesota's multi-faceted attack.  Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense has just gotten stronger and deeper since last season.  Let me stop now before I jinx them any further.

Lovely Lady Locks

And now for something new and different for Lady Blitz! Since my picks above aren’t based on the spread and I’ve been doing this thing for over three years, I’m going to try my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 1, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Packers -7 over Bears
• Chiefs +1 over Texans
• Dolphins -3 over Redskinks