The Subtly Worst Coaching Award: Andy Reid
"Most Agonizing Loss" was a bit too straightforward of a title for what the Chiefs did to us on Thursday night. Imagine my fading smugness when Kansas City put on a defensive clinic against their arch-rival Broncos for most of the game as predicted, only to see it all evaporate in the final few minutes of the fourth quarter. Sure, Alex Smith's bad turnovers and Peyton Manning’s late TD drive were factors in the loss, but we should not be letting Andy Reid off the hook for calling one of the subtly worst possible plays so far this season. Tied with no time for another drive in the fourth quarter, Reid was essentially planning to run out the clock for overtime and called a draw up the middle for Jamaal Charles. But of course Charles fumbled on the play and Denver returned the ball for a game-sealing touchdown before the Chiefs would ever have another chance. Hindsight might be 20/20, but there was virtually no upside to calling a draw versus kneeling to end regulation time in that scenario. And as events soon proved, there was a whole lot of downside for this play, not just because the odds of a turnover were much higher with a designed run but also the risk of a totally unnecessary injury. If you aren’t going for meaningful yardage to try and score, why on earth would you put your top offensive player through one of the league’s best defensive gauntlets just to run out the clock? That play was basically like using your grandmother’s fine china to eat a grilled cheese and breaking a plate in the process - though I wouldn’t put that past Andy Reid either.
As my picks record would suggest, I definitely bit off a little too much of that Week 1 hype sandwich in many cases. I thought Marcus Mariota would mop the floor with Johnny Football this week, but it was Manziel who won the head-to-head highlight reel after some big-time downfield plays. To be fair, Mariota was no slouch considering how little time the Titans' offensive line gave him to work with. Still, maybe Manziel's got a little more pro-level mojo than I might have thought, at least until the Browns go up against the defenses of the Broncos, Rams, Bengals, and Cardinals in a few weeks. You know what? Nevermind.
The Just a Flesh Wound Award: Dallas Cowboys
Yeesh. After avoiding the injury bug better than most during last year's memorable 12 - 4 campaign, the Cowboys have been bitten, drawn and quartered in a matter of weeks in 2015. Dallas lost #1 cornerback Orlando Scandrick before the season even started, and now they'll have to spend significant playing time without Dez Bryant or Tony Romo, both sidelined with broken bones for 6+ weeks. Nevertheless, big kudos are due to this team for grinding out a win on the road against a division rival with relative ease anyway. The Cowboys offense stayed just aggressive enough with some big completions from Brandon Weeden while frustrating ex-teammate DeMarco Murray all afternoon with an even bigger defensive performance. It’s hard to say where this team will be two months from now with two gigantic injuries and in a division with plenty of question marks elsewhere, but I wouldn’t count Dallas out just yet.
The Gift of the Magi Award: The Jimmy Graham-Max Unger Trade
Ah yes, the irony (or early season hot take) is setting in on that blockbuster trade between the Seahawks and Saints this past March. Having lacked a consistent receiving threat to match Russell Wilson's fat contract, Seattle was eager to acquire Jimmy Graham. And with Drew Brees on the wrong side of 35 and a defense only a mother could love, the Saints were willing to let go of their red zone stud for a Pro Bowl center and a couple of high draft picks. But the puzzle pieces haven't fit so snugly for either team in reality. Graham has only been targeted a handful of times and is barely cracking the top 100 for receiving yards so far; meanwhile, the Saints are averaging 3.4 yards per carry on the ground, "good enough" for 28th in the league. Adding to these winless teams' misery, they also look worse off in areas where they had been doing well. Marshawn Lynch is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and was tackled for a loss five times against the typically generous Packers defensive line on Sunday night, speaking to Seattle's offensive line woes. The Saints offense has yet to top 20 points this season and are converting less than 60% of their red zone trips. Of course, it's still too early in the year to truly evaluate these moves, and they aren't the sole reason Seattle and New Orleans are struggling right now, but it makes you wonder if these two teams would secretly take a mulligan on that trade if given the chance.
Assessing 0 - 2 Team Threat Levels
This season has started out just plain weird to say the least. Case in point: of the nine teams currently staring down the barrel of an 0 - 2 start, six had winning records last season and four made the playoffs. And conversely, the Buccaneers, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskinks and Jets--the six worst teams from 2014 in their draft order--all currently have better records than this group. It may be a small sample size, but it’s also sheer insanity. Tangentially, I’ll take any excuse after an atrocious 6 - 10 picks record this past week. Anyway, historical odds put this somewhat unexpected group at roughly a 10% chance of making the playoffs after an 0 - 2 start. But before we hit the panic button, let’s assess the highly scientific threat levels for all eight winless teams:Threat Level 1: Hope That Bee Sting Doesn't Swell Up Too Bad
Seattle Seahawks - This is most definitely not the start Seattle wanted, but of every team yet to win a game this season, the Seahawks are still the consensus favorite to turn things around before January. They’ve built a lead in both of their losses to date, have yet to play at home where they have one of the league’s biggest advantages, and still have enough talent to turn things around with some likely adjustments coming. Although everyone else in the NFC West has at least one win to date, the Cardinals are the only team that looks like it can pose a real threat to the divisional crown this year, and that depends on Carson Palmer staying healthy and two head-to-head games left on the schedule at minimum.
Indianapolis Colts - Well crap. I wasn't expecting to have to add these guys too after they lost at home to the Jets last night. In a better division, the Colts would be in a world of trouble right now, but they only trail by one game to--wait for it--the Titans and Jaguars! Indy still doesn't look good - their secondary is paper thin and their offensive line is doing no favors for Frank Gore or that franchise quarterback looking for a big long-term deal. But with games against all three divisional opponents and then the likely Brees-less Saints after that, Indy can turn this thing around without hardly trying by mid-October.
Threat Level 2: We'll Need to Monitor Things Overnight in the ER
Baltimore Ravens & Detroit Lions
Things definitely get a little dicier here after the Seahawks. The Ravens & Lions also made the playoffs last season but have a steeper hill to climb to stay in contention this year. They’ll have to catch up with the likes of the Bengals, Steelers, Packers and Vikings in their respective divisions, and they’ll also need to figure things out sooner than later on defense after losing key players that made them so successful last season. They should also run the ball sometimes maybe. Things get a little calmer on the schedule for both teams in the second half of the season, but Baltimore and Detroit will need to rally against some big rivals coming up to have a real shot. Still, there’s a lot to salvage here if either of these teams can find some chemistry and make the proper play-calling adjustments.
Threat Level 3: Does Your Insurance Cover Head Transplants?
Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants & Houston Texans
Hoo boy. All three of these teams can thank their lucky stars that they’re still on life support because of how the dominoes have fallen in their divisions so far. The Eagles and Giants are still very much alive given that the Cowboys will be missing huge components of their offense for the next two months and that the Redskinks cannot be trusted to sustain any long-term success as far as I can tell. Likewise, the Texans are only one game back in the “vaunted” AFC South and have plenty of divisional games coming up to gain some ground, especially if Arian Foster comes back sooner than later. And yet, the structural integrity of these three teams is far from sound. The Texans look like they’ll be waffling back and forth between two barely mediocre quarterbacks in futility while this J.J. Watt-led defense hasn’t been generating turnovers or sacks at nearly the pace that got Houston to a surprising 9 - 7 last season. The Giants have kept their last two games extraordinarily close, but this defense is second only to the Raiders in how many yards it's giving up per game, and Jason Pierre-Paul probably isn't coming back anytime soon with that Yoda hand. And of course, Philadelphia looks like anything but the offensively gifted freight train it has been under Chip Kelly for the past two years. From Byron Maxwell to DeMarco Murray to those anonymous lineman acting like admission turnstiles to Sam Bradford, just about everyone on this Eagles team is performing notably worse than they were a year ago. Some breakthroughs from key players and a bit of help from their divisional opponents are critical for these teams to have a chance, but I’m saying there’s a chance.
Threat Level 4: I've Heard Flesh-Eating Bacteria Isn't Fatal 100% of the Time
New Orleans Saints & Chicago Bears
And then, there are two teams that look like they are pretty much down for the count to me, both because they’ve looked woefully incompetent in all phases of the game for a while now and because they probably won’t get much relief elsewhere in the division. Some of you might think I’m piling on the Saints as a panicky homer. But the reality is that this team has gone 3 - 7 over its past ten games including 0 - 6 at home and 1 - 3 against the rest of the NFC South. The offense cannot score and is already on pace to give up over 30 turnovers this season, the running game is worse off, Drew Brees is in decline and now injured, and the defense, well, it’s trying hard with a lot of replacement-level talent that just can’t hang on without a viable offense. With the rest of the NFC South currently at 5 - 1, the Saints won’t have the benefit of trying to outlast worse teams this year and look pretty much done in the Brees-Payton era barring a miracle. The Bears too have run off a cliff fairly recently with little hope of rebounding. Jay Cutler is already back to being shame-injured after throwing a pick six to the Cardinals on Sunday, and Chicago has no exit after signing him to a huge long-term deal that looks worse by the game. Hell is Jay Cutler. Anyway, expect huge overhauls for these two teams by the time September 2016 rolls around. It might be the only thing to look forward to for their fans.
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