Week 5 Picks for Every NFL Game

You might have surmised from my fly-by-night posts this week that it's been jam-packed.  In fact, this may be the first you're hearing about the long-expired Week 4 Recap.  (Here it is).  You know the deal, what goes up must come down and I'm hoping for the converse this week.  Here are my Week 5 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Indianapolis Colts - For those like myself who were pleasantly surprised with the Colts' ability to compete against ground-and-pound styles like the 49ers a couple of weeks ago, this is another big test for Indy.  The head-to-head between the more successful half of our Gang of Four makes this the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The Seahawks might look a little sleepy at the beginning of yet another game, but I'm pretty much betting on them to find a way to win until proven otherwise, and now they get good ole Bruce Irvin back to add to Andrew Luck's QB hits.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) - How about those Patriots getting it done on the road last week? Cincinnati is healthier and more talented than previous opponent Atlanta in many ways, but the Bengals are still dealing with a number of inconsistencies, especially on offense.  Nevertheless, I'll give Cincinnati the benefit of the doubt with Vince Wilfork out for the Pats and the comforts of homefield.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7) - Virtually no team wants an early bye week, but Green Bay was sorely in need after a number of injuries in the first couple of weeks. The Packers will be eager to get back to work against a surprisingly hot division rival at Lambeau on Sunday, and if they can get Eddie Lacy to wear out a solid Detroit defensive line, they should eke this one out.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (PK) - The Saints are smoking on both sides of the ball at the moment, lest we forget they’ve played 3 out of 4 at home so far this season. If New Orleans’ defense can harass Jay Cutler the way the Lions did last week, they can absolutely come out on top. Having said that, the Bears are a similarly balanced force to be reckoned with and I think homefield advantage gives them quite an edge this weekend.

Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys - I wonder if Demarcus Ware is having any trouble sleeping at night this week with the tall task the Cowboys have in stopping Peyton Manning on Sunday. While Dallas still looks like the early favorite to win the NFC East, I’m none too confident they’ll have the answer against No. 18 this weekend, especially after watching Philip Rivers pick them apart in San Diego last week.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) - They may not be hoisting a Lombardi anytime soon, but you have to admire the Bills' and Browns' mettle in getting to 2 - 2 so far this season.  I feel like Cleveland's streak with Brian Hoyer can't last forever, but I'll take him and Jordan Cameron over the yet-developing E.J. Manuel at this point.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3) - Which Joe Flacco is headed to South Beach this weekend? That’s the question with Cameron Wake potentially on the sidelines and the Dolphins a little less sure of themselves after being routed in New Orleans. The Ravens have been a bit more inconsistent than the Dolphins so far this year so this pick is a gamble, but their best is still a little better than Miami's in my book.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2) - How did this thing end up on the Well Drink shelf? Merely because it’s anyone’s division in the NFC East, and this matchup has the potential to be a wild and sloppy one between two desperate, uneven teams. Also, you have to wonder if Chip Kelly has gotten the college gimmick beaten out of him enough to adjust to the realities of pro football. I’m not sure who to put minimal trust in at this point, so I'm hoping Eli has a big game against a very shaky Eagles defense.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) - What an agonizing start for this Texans team that looked like it had it all in 2012. Maybe Gary Kubiak will draw inspiration from Jim Harbaugh across the sidelines and start entertaining a change under center after Matt Schaub has tossed a pick six in three consecutive weeks. Although the 49ers durability is still in question with a number of injuries/non-injuries at linebacker and receiver, the ten days of rest can only help this team reestablish its identity and come out swinging at home on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tennessee Titans - This one has all the makings of a hardfought but low-scoring affair, especially with the developing Jake Locker out for a few weeks. The Titans will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep the chains moving and protect the ball against one of the best pass rushes in the early part of this season. Kansas City already has that guy in Alex Smith, and the Chiefs should command the line of scrimmage by the time the fourth quarter rolls around.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5) - The Rams have their atonement cut out for themselves after three straight uninspiring losses. NFL punching bag Jacksonville comes to town this week to give them a little boost of confidence, especially on offense.

Carolina Panthers (-2) at Arizona Cardinals - I really want to pick the Cardinals in this one because they’re a little closer to mediocre than people think, and they can definitely give Cam Newton the shakedown with a solid pass defense. Still, the Panthers are coming off a bye and probably feeling pretty good about their chances of sacking Carson Palmer after a dominant win against the Giants two weeks ago.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders - The poor Raiders will continue to get left behind in the surprisingly competitive AFC West this week when Philip Rivers makes another case for runner up MVP.

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-10) - The Falcons may be getting Steven Jackson back soon, which ought to boost an offense that desperately needs balance especially in the red zone. The Jets have already surpassed expectations by getting to 0.500 in September, but Atlanta will put an end to that on Monday night.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 7
Season Record: 40 -23