Week 6 Picks for Every NFL Game

Be sure to let Matt Schaub know this says Week "Six Picks" instead of "pick six."  Poor guy has gone from hardly noticeable mediocrity to an outright implosion under center for the Texans.  Speaking of implosions, I had another sub-par week in my own picks this past weekend, but I'm almost positive I single-handedly jinxed the Saints into victory and the Falcons into defeat as a result.  If being wrong yields these kinds of results, I really don't ever want to be right.  But here's what I think will happen this weekend:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-2.5) - The Gronk returneth on Sunday in Foxboro to square off against Jimmy Graham and the Saints.  Add to that mix two of the greatest coaching minds in the game today and two Hall of Fame QBs and you've got yourself a heck of a Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  I am more than a little fearful of the wrath of Brady after he was shut out in Cincy last week, and if the Pats beating four teams this year without Gronk feels like winning with one hand tied behind their backs, they are about to get a knockout punch back in their toolbox.  In the interest of jinxing the Saints to victory, the Pats have it at home.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Baltimore Ravens - Having Clay Matthews out for a month is a big blow for the Packers, but they hit the jackpot by getting to face the offenses of the Ravens, Browns and Vikings during that time.  The Ravens have a shot at this if Ray Rice can help the offense chip away at the clock and open up some safe passing lanes for Flacco, but I haven't seen enough so far this season to believe that will happen.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-27.5) -You're reading that right: the Broncos are 4-TD favorites over Jacksonville, a point spread that is unheard of in the NFL.  While this would usually be a House Punch game by any standard, this could be just the kind of trainwreck you won't want to take your eyes off of.  Since we haven't seen Brock Osweiler take a snap yet this season, I'm guessing Peyton will feel perfectly comfortable padding his stats like there's no tomorrow with at least 350 passing yards and 5 TDs.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) - Just to make things interesting, how cool would it be if RGIII suddenly had a resurgence after the Redskins' bye and shredded the Cowboys' secondary just like he did on Thanksgiving last year?  I'm still holding out hope that the rest did him well and he can rediscover some of that mojo, but I just can't see the Washington defense stacking up against the same Tony Romo that put up 500 yards and 5 TDs last week.

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at San Diego Chargers - I've enjoyed watching both of these teams more than expected so far this season due in large part to very smart offensive play.  You can never count out Andrew Luck - that is for certain.  But on a hunch that the Chargers are slightly better than their record and the Colts might have stolen that win against Seattle last week, this feels like a prime opportunity for San Diego to gain back some ground in the hotly contested AFC.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) - The jury's still out on Terrelle Pryor after a solid performance in the wee hours last Sunday, but we can be thankful that the AFC West is suddenly very interesting, especially since the usually competitive NFC East and NFC South are total duds.  I love how the Chiefs are slogging it out this season even if their record might be a bit shinier than it ought to be.  With confidence riding high and more veteran experience than the Raiders, Kansas City triples its win total from 2012 at home this week.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns - Megatron pulled an Irish exit on all of us Sunday, and the Lions offense suffered mightily against Green Bay as a result.  I'm making this pick based on the assumption that he'll return to action in Cleveland this weekend, but the Lions will have a tough time against that stout Browns defense either way.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-2.5) - One thing that got lost in the mix during the darker periods of Rex Ryan's tenure was how good he managed to make Mark Sanchez look for two whole years.  Really.  They went to two AFC Championships with this guy:

Rex's defense is looking vintage after a stunning performance against the Falcons on Monday night, and despite the Steelers getting an extra week and a day off, I am surprised to say I like New York terrorizing Big Ben and that shoddy offensive line on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) - If this game were being played in Tennessee at noon, it could potentially make the Top Shelf due to some stellar early defensive performances between these two teams.  Instead, the Seahawks should have this one pretty handily at home where they have a league-best 10 game winning streak at the moment.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-11) - Credit the Cardinals' defense for keeping them competitive in most games so far this season.  They may keep things interesting for a couple of quarters against Colin Kaepernick, who has come back down to Earth for the most part this year.  Nevertheless, I'll take a mediocre Kaepernick over any kind of Carson Palmer any day.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-8) - So Eli Manning and David Wilson like coughing up the football?  Peanut Tillman will gladly invite them over for chilli dogs and kidney punches while they extend their misery tour in Chicago on Thursday.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Did a bye and a major roster shakeup do the Bucs some good?  In all honesty, they have nowhere to go but up after the very public spat between Josh Freeman and the management.  I'm willing to take a chance here that Tampa gets a temporary boost with very good defense and ample possessions for Mike Glennon to find a way past the much shakier Philly defense.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) - I'm none too sure about this one.  What has been glossed over in Carolina's paltry 1 - 3 start is how good that Panthers defense is, especially with total yards and points allowed.  The Vikings have a recent bye and homefield advantage to help them out, so if Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel can do just enough to open things up for AP, I like Minnesota's odds just ever so slightly better.

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans (-7.5) - This seems like just the kind of game that could end with a score of 6 - 3. These two offenses have had a very rough month to say the least, and their defenses aren't turning the ball over nearly enough to atone for it.  But the Texans have Arian Foster and at least 9 reasons to keep the ball out of Matt Schaub's hands.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills - Poor Bills.  I was just starting to really like E.J. Manuel too.  Instead, the team that just shut out Tom Brady for the first time in 53 games gets to toy with poor Thad Lewis while he's still basically looking for an apartment in Buffalo. Yeesh.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 6
Season Record: 48 -29