Week 4 Recap

Hoo boy, I am skating on thin ice yet again after another rough week with the picks.  Psychology says that just like Zodiac fortunes and financial forecasts, you’ll forget the bad stuff eventually.  Even so, I could make a few omelets with the amount of egg on my face at the moment.  No weekly feature this time as I've been traveling a great deal for work, but onward we go.

What a topsy-turvy season it has been thus far.  Only 4 of the 12 playoff teams from last season have winning records at the moment.  The Lions and Chiefs that were so miserable a year ago look like serious playoff contenders.  You can’t even give the NFC East away after a three-way race that went down to Week 17 last year.  Clearly it’s time to challenge expectations for the 2013 season unless you’re talking about the Seahawks or the Broncos... or the Jaguars.  Now on to the good stuff:

Week 4: The Good Stuff

Peyton's Pace - Set your football memory to "I remember when." The Denver Broncos are well on their way to a season for the ages, already on pace to shatter scoring records that the New England Patriots set in 2007 we thought might never fall.  At this point, Peyton Manning could probably kick a puppy at Kid President's birthday party and still win his fifth MVP unanimously.  He's definitely earned it with 16 TDs and 0 INTs through four weeks.  Although there's still a lot of football left to play, Manning is presently on track for 64 TD passes this season, a full 14 TDs above and beyond current record holder Tom Brady.  Whoa.

Richard Sherman, OG - It's hard to imagine, but my picks could have been even worse this week had the Seahawks rolled over after trailing 20 - 6 well into the fourth quarter in Houston.  If there's an Achilles Heel for this team, it's early road games as evidenced by similarly slow starts in Carolina this year and at Washington and Atlanta during the 2013 playoffs.  Even so, Seattle fans should take comfort in witnessing how this team continues to find ways to win on both sides of the ball.  Case and point: Richard Sherman's superb pick six to send this one to OT just as the Texans were knocking at the door of game-clinching field goal range.  You can blame it on Matt Schaub as many torch-wielding Texans fans already have, but that would undersell how masterfully coordinated the Seahawks D was - Schaub doesn't throw that interception without Chancellor pressuring him into the dump off Sherman baits him into... and then proceeds 58 yards downfield with one shoe.  Good stuff indeed.

Brian Hoyer?  Brian Hoyer. - Who is this guy?  Don't look now, but the Cleveland Browns are suddenly within reach of the AFC North after two very productive and resilient performances (5 TDs, 590 yards) by this journeyman backup QB.  It certainly doesn't hurt to have Jordan Cameron around as well to make secondaries look benign, but give a ton of credit to Hoyer for earning a starting job by refusing to let the Factory of Sadness give up after parting ways with Trent Richardson just two weeks ago.  Of course, beating the Vikings and kinda questionable Bengals isn't exactly a bellwether for the rest of Cleveland's schedule that will include the Packers, Bears, Lions, Ravens, Patriots and Dolphins, but I'm taking a whole lot more notice with these guys in the picks from now on.

The End of Breaking Bad - No spoilers, I promise.  But just, wow.  Better than any football I've seen this season in fact.  All in favor of Albuquerque getting an NFL team named the Heisenbergs say "Aye."

Nailed It!  My Best Week 4 Prediction - One team I seem to have a solid prediction affinity for is the Arizona Cardinals despite the fact that they've pulled of their two victories by the skin of their teeth from opponents like the floundering Buccaneers:

• This game won’t be a cakewalk for either team despite the lineup change given that both defenses have looked solid to date, but I can’t imagine rookie QB Mike Glennon getting it done against the Honey Badger & company. The Cards get to steal one away from home against a team in turmoil.

Week 4: The Bad Stuff

The Steel Sponge - In the interest of diverting attention from the usual suspects (Giants, Bucs, Jaguars) this week, I was more than a little taken aback that the Steelers let Matt Cassel & co. drop 34 points on them at Wembley Stadium this weekend.  Sure, getting Pittsburgh's offense running was going to be an uphill battle (though, hello, newly activated Bakery Special Flex Player Le'Veon Bell!), but what's the defense's excuse against a second string QB and singly effective running back?  It's hard to see the Steelers winning more than 5 - 6 games tops this year, and I'm starting to fear for Coach Mike Tomlin's seat despite the obvious roster holes surrounding him.

Fail-Cants in the Red Zone -I went there. I apologize, Falcons fans.I was more than a little puzzled with Mike Smith's play-calling at the end of last night's tango with the Patriots.  Atlanta was within a score to tie the Patriots with three minutes and all three timeouts left. Why try a second onside kick with such a high failure rate instead of forcing the Pats to stay conservative with the play-calling and hope you're able to put the ball back in the hands of one of the best closers in the game, Matt Ryan?  Perhaps in part it was the Falcons' frustration with their lack of red zone productivity.  Atlanta scored just 1 TD in six trips to the red zone on Sunday night and averaging just 50% on the year. You just can't give up 4 points that often with the kind of offensive weapons the Falcons have and feel good about where they're headed.  Not that I'm complaining.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 4 Prediction: A lot of these games really could have gone either way, but I am kicking myself for going a bit too bold with the whole Rams-49ers matchup.  The Rams offense is looking really, really bad by the way:

• The Rams weren't a good match up for the fully loaded Niners last year, and they sure have a window of opportunity here to gain some ground in the NFC West while their rivals are down.