Week 9 Picks for Every NFL Game

Just like that we’re already over halfway done with the regular season – the one blip of the calendar year where all of the Big Four leagues are fighting for parking and TV market shares.  (PS, in case you missed it, here's my very belated and scant Week 8 recap) You might want to tune into some basketball this weekend because there isn’t a whole lot doing on the NFL schedule. Nevertheless, the show must go on, so while I contemplate riding a bike instead of watching anything else here but the Saints, here are my Week 9 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New Orleans Saints (-6) at New York Jets - Ah, the Ryan Bowl. It’s like the Harbaugh Bowl we experienced last February except about 300 pounds heavier and a whole lot more fun to go have a beer with. It’s slim pickings again with so many teams on a bye this week, but this could definitely make for a wild and lose Lady Blitz Game of the Week. I definitely won’t count the Jets out of this one with a resurgence of Rex Ryan’s defense, but brother Rob ought to be able to contain Geno Smith long enough for Drew Brees to get his mojo going.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Miami Dolphins - Behind mystery door number two, a couple of very baffling AFC teams with all kinds of potential that still look uneven, especially on offense. This game may well come down to which QB comes through in the clutch since these defenses will make them earn every yard. It’s very tempting to pick Cincy in this one given the Bengals’ lights out performance last week, but I’ll give Ryan Tannehill a shot at home with a solid and underrated Dolphins defense.

San Diego Chargers (-1) at Washington Redskins - The Chargers’ challenging east coast schedule continues in DC this week, but so far, San Diego has weathered that part of the schedule pretty well. These two teams are still a stretch to make the playoffs but you can count on some excellent offensive fireworks between Philip Rivers and Robert Griffin to entertain us regardless. If RGIII continues to get closer to fine, the Redskins may have a chance, but that defense just can’t be trusted against Rivers & co.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans - Now that the Texans are sticking to their guns for the time being with Case Keenum, this game just got a lot more interesting. Both rivals are returning from a bye week which means adjustments, rest and more focused players. If Houston wins this one, it’ll be because we don’t really know anything about Keenum, making it extremely difficult for the Colts to prepare. But this is the only defense that has shut Peyton Manning down so far this season, so I’m giving Indy the benefit of the doubt.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Tennessee Titans (-3) at St. Louis Rams -  It was painful to watch the Rams defense put on such a masterful performance last Monday and still come up short. To be expected when your starting QB goes down for the season, I suppose. That situation won’t change much if the Titans’ defense has anything to do with it, especially now that their replacement QB woes are over.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills - Oh to have the Kansas City Chiefs’ schedule. They had their rockiest victory last week against Browns backup QB Jason Campbell, but with a defense as stacked and healthy as this one, they ought to bounce back against the Bills who are in a similar situation this week. Enjoy it while you can, Kansas City. You get Peyton Manning twice in three weeks next.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns - It’s a moment of truth for Baltimore this week. The team went sub-0.500 at the season’s midpoint for the first time in John Harbaugh’s tenure. Joe Flacco may have pulled off the best peak performance mega-contract in a generation if this offense continues to sputter, but coming off a bye against the Browns may be just the thing to redeem the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6.5) - I’m not sure this game really belongs in the Well Drink section, but this used to be a pretty good conference rivalry, no? For all of the Steelers’ issues, you still have to admire the heart and ferocity Troy Polamalu brings to the team every Sunday with wonderfully timed snap count blitzes. He ought to be pretty motivated to shut Tom Brady down given No. 12’s uncharacteristic struggles this season, so I’m hoping for a close game. Nevertheless, always bet on the house at Gillette Stadium.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5) - I really would have been interested to see what this game could have been for the Bears after half a season with Marc Trestman if Jay Cutler were healthy. Instead, we’ve got a Bears non-starter on our hands in all likelihood. The Packers have operated a lot like the Patriots have this year, winning the games they should against lesser teams but not in a particularly impressive fashion. This will probably be another example of that.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) - Once upon a month ago, I was planning to frame this game as a proof point for the Panthers’ turnaround. They are definitely starting to turn heads in the NFC, but they haven’t played any notable opponents yet. The Atlanta team we thought we were getting this year would have been a great litmus test for the surging Panthers, but after seeing the Falcons and Matt Ryan in particular have one of their worst games in a long time in Arizona last week, Atlanta is guilty until proven innocent.

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-10) - This is kind of an intriguing game for House Punch. That Dallas defense has been as anti-clutch as poor Tony Romo, and he’s still the one getting all the blame. If Minnesota can diversify its offensive attack enough with high-percentage passes early, AP might be able to get back to the 100-yard grinds we’re used to. As much as I’d love to see the Vikings get back to their improbable 2012 form though, this one’s definitely Dallas’s to lose.

Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (-2.5) - Who would’ve thought six months ago the Eagles would be jealous of the Raiders’ quarterback situation? The comparison between the raw talent of Terrelle Pryor and a young Michael Vick isn’t unfair, but the random fate of one’s hamstring is. Charles Woodson and Tracy Porter will have a field day with Matt Barkley if he starts another game – and comparing Barkley to Blaine Gabbert is completely fair.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-16) - Imagine if this game had happened around Week 2, before a Buccaneer mutiny set in and the team had high hopes for the season. That Tampa team might have been more optimistic about how rough the Seahawks’ offensive line looked on Monday night and gunning for an upset in a hostile environment. After 0 - 7 though, Darrelle Revis can play man coverage all he wants, the Bucs aren’t going to pull this one off.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 2
Season Record: 78 - 42

Week 8 Recap

In a word, this week was ugly.  Not that that's such a bad thing if you like defense and upsets.  A stunning six teams had defensive touchdowns on Sunday, the Rams-Panthers game featured punches and ejections, and it'll be a while before we forget that very bizarre penalty in the Meadowlands.  Anyway, I certainly can't complain about not having anything to write about this week.  Here's your Week 8 Recap:

Week 8: The Good Stuff

Megatron's Megatons of Yards - It was a really good week in the picks, and yours truly saw the Lions tearing it up in the air in her crystal ball.  Still, nobody was expecting Calvin Johnson to put up 329 reception yards--the second most in a single game all-time--as part of the equation.  This guy has no peer in the NFL today, not even you, Dez Bryant.  He averaged over 20 yards per catch including an 80-yard scamper from a dump off and a clutch 20-yard play to set up the game-winning TD for the Lions with 12 seconds left in the game.  Overall, it was an ugly win for Detroit, but Johnson absolutely deserved it.  In fact, he caught more yards than all but three QBs including his own passed for this week.  Yow. Za.

Green Bay's Ground Game - Patriots and Falcons take note - no receivers means no problems for the Green Bay Packers these days.  You may have heard about the Packers' struggles on the ground in recent years; they hadn't had a 100-yard rusher in any game since their 2010 Super Bowl run until this season.  Fast forward to 2013 with rookie Eddie Lacy and James Starks trading hand offs and now Green Bay has a top five rushing team in terms of yards per game and yards per attempt.  This is huge for a team that has struggled to build and protect a lead in key games lately, especially in those rare situations where Aaron Rodgers and/or his receivers are out of sync.  Keep an eye on Lacy & co. as the season wears on and Green Bay needs to close out games at an icy Lambeau Field - it could be just one more form of punishment for visiting teams as the Packers try to reclaim the division lead.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 8 Prediction - Look at my waterproof logic!

• "I don't know what to do with these Steelers.  They suddenly look like their stingy ground-and-pound selves again, which would normally have me picking them in a game like this.  But that's just the kind of thing that I always whiff on so I've game theoried myself into thinking somehow the Raiders can do this."

Week 8: The Bad Stuff

Matt Ryan's Arizona Problem -The hits just keep on coming for the Falcons, who after going 13 - 3 a year ago are already sporting a 2 - 5 record.  Atlanta's problems are much larger than any one player or phase of the game, but Matt Ryan had one of his worst outings since, well, the last time he played the Cardinals.  In case you missed it in 2012, Ryan threw 5 interceptions and 0 TDs but somehow hung on for the win against sad, sad Ryan Lindley.  This time around, Ryan produced another 4 interceptions and they were just plain ugly.  Whereas the previous year, you could have made an argument that some of the passes were tipped, these interceptions were wild-pitch quality coming from Ryan.  The guy could hardly stay upright with a woeful offensive line and resorted to about four too many Hail Marys,  being the first QB in the modern era to put up 300 yards in passing for less than 5 yards per attempt.  Yech.

Only the Cowboys - Only the Cowboys could lose a game the way they did to the Lions on Sunday.  Dallas produced a 4+ turnover margin and had an air-tight 6-point lead on third down with a minute left on the clock and the Lions out of timeouts.  A team not called the Cowboys would have run the ball into the line of scrimmage and leave Detroit with 20 seconds to drive down the field and score a touchdown.  But the Cowboys like to do things just a little bit differently like earn themselves a holding penalty to stop the clock and then give Calvin "I already have 290 receiving yards" Johnson one-on-one coverage to take Detroit to the goal line in less than a minute.  It was only fitting that Dallas would then get totally punked by Matt Stafford's QB sneak to top off this improbable collapse.  I loved every minute of it, and now Dallas still finds itself just two games ahead of the godawful Redskins and Giants.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 8 Prediction: Hey, look!  I jinxed the Falcons again, not that I'm complaining:

• "The last time the Falcons and Cardinals squared off, Matt Ryan was intercepted a whopping 5 times and still somehow managed to pull off the win.  Arizona's secondary is probably more thankful to be playing Atlanta without Julio Jones and Roddy White in tow, but they'd also probably much prefer playing against Carson Palmer than Matt Ryan."

Week 8 Picks for Every Game

Avert your eyes - I'm off to a much rockier start this season than I was a year ago in the picks. You know what they say about insanity and expecting different results, so thanks for reading anyhow.  I'll try to entertain you the best I can and continue to demonstrate why gambling on wildly variant 60 minute football games is a bad thing.

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3) - It's definitely a sub-par week in terms of high-profile games to watch, so I can't in good conscience really call this a Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Still, it has the makings of a wild shootout between two relatively good teams trying to control their divisions.  This game could easily go either way, but Dallas has been really bad against the pass and, unfortunately for them, that's Detroit's bread and butter.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5) - Here's another game that looked a lot more intriguing at the outset than it does now, especially since the Dolphins lost to the Bills at home right off of a bye week.  Yech.  Given that the Patriots are still plenty miffed about how things ended with the Jets last weekend, I suspect Miami's looking more like a punching bag this week than a contender.

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) - This is just the kind of game that the Bengals could inexplicably lose (or that the Jets will come out of nowhere to win), but Cincy has yet to lose at home this year so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.  The defensive slog could go well into the fourth quarter though.

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-12.5) - Ah, the joys of watching two high-powered offenses go at it against defenses that can't stop anything.  The Colts were finally able to bring down the Broncos last week with outstanding defensive effort and steady offensive production without mistakes.  It'd be more than a stretch to expect the same thing from the Redskins, but they've suddenly grown a second tier of offensive weapons that may at least make this game a 60-minute highlight reel.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Cleveland Browns at  Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) - You know things are dicey when you've got a long-retired Jeff Garcia offering his services in place of Brandon Weeden in Cleveland.  The Chiefs are the real deal and while they haven't played any top tier opponents yet this season, they don't beat themselves against lesser competition like the Browns.

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (-12) -The Bills continue to surprise me with their "next man up" attitude under center.  Former Saints OC/Bills coach Doug Marrone has done just about everything he can to set up a productive offensive system with spare parts, and he'll be motivated to pull out all the stops upon his return to the Superdome.  Still, Thad Lewis is no Drew Brees and I think the Saints defense will get back on track against a less experienced QB that doesn't have a steady run game to rely on.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders - I don't know what to do with these Steelers.  They suddenly look like their stingy ground-and-pound selves again, which would normally have me picking them in a game like this.  But that's just the kind of thing that I always whiff on so I've game theoried myself into thinking somehow the Raiders can do this.  So for that reason, Terrelle Pryor is going to be sacked about 7 times and Charles Woodson is going to be shredded by Antonio Brown to make me look dumb.

Green Bay Packers (-9.5) at Minnesota Vikings - I wonder if NBC execs forced the Vikings to start Christian Ponder over suddenly concussed Josh Freeman this week.  That substitute just made this game a bit more interesting since the Packers have had trouble stopping Ponder and Peterson in the past and won't have Clay Matthews to help out.  Even so, Minnesota's defense is no match for Aaron Rodgers and if Green Bay can get out to a significant early lead, the Vikings are toast.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Carolina Panthers (-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Are these 2013 Buccaneers trying to repeat their ancestors' winless season of nearly 40 years ago?  Mike Glennon looks like he can eke out a win somewhere on the schedule, especially seeing ex-pat Josh Freeman in all of his glory last week.  But this Panthers defense is just too good for Tampa to overcome.

San Francisco 49ers (-16.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Poor Jaguars.  The hits just keep on coming when the revitalized 49ers come to town this weekend.  The question for this fantasy owner is, will Colin Kaepernick have a career day?

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) - Despite how rough things were for the Vikings on Monday night, the Giants won't win many more games playing that way.  They're just that inexplicably bad.  Philly, on the other hand, gets Michael Vick back this week so unless they start Matt Barkley and attempt lots of 56-yard field goals, they won't be shooting themselves in the foot.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) - The last time the Falcons and Cardinals squared off, Matt Ryan was intercepted a whopping 5 times and still somehow managed to pull off the win.  Arizona's secondary is probably more thankful to be playing Atlanta without Julio Jones and Roddy White in tow, but they'd also probably much prefer playing against Carson Palmer than Matt Ryan.

Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) at St. Louis Rams - So the Rams ended up being who I thought they would this year (mediocre) and now they've lost Sam Bradford for the season.  That actually may make things easier for St. Louis to consider other options at QB at year's end, but Seattle will have no trouble with... BradyQuinnohGodno this weekend.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 7
Season Record: 67 - 40

Week 7 Recap and Why the Patriots Field Goal Call Is Fine

In a word, this week was ugly.  Not that that's such a bad thing if you like defense and upsets.  A stunning six teams had defensive touchdowns on Sunday, the Rams-Panthers game featured punches and ejections, and it'll be a while before we forget that very bizarre penalty in the Meadowlands.  Anyway, I certainly can't complain about not having anything to write about this week.  Here's your Week 7 Recap and While the Patriots Field Goal Call Is Fine.

Week 7: The Good Stuff

That Colts Defense - Andrew Luck will get plenty of nods for Sunday night's upset special against the Broncos and rightfully so.  He protected the football while also making some calculated risks to keep Indy in front for the duration of the game.  Nevertheless, you can't ignore the Colts' defense in coming up big every time it mattered.  Indy sacked Peyton Manning four times, forced three turnovers and, at my count, stopped the Broncos at least 8 times on three and outs.  Robert Mathis is making a strong case for DPOY and the Colts secondary had no problem shutting down a stacked Denver receiving corps before a few late game injuries.  Important question: now that Indy has knocked off three Super Bowl favorites this season (Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos), what's stopping them from going to the Meadowlands in February?

Keenum Making a Case - It's hard not to fawn over young and unlikely QBs stepping up when the chips are down.  Look no further than Kurt Warner and Tom Brady if you're wondering how draft valuation might be flawed.  Of course, it's still way to early to have more than a knee-jerk reaction to Texans undrafted backup/new starter Case Keenum, but he played about as well as any passer has against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs pass rush this weekend.  Keenum averaged nearly 20 yards per completed pass without any interceptions and kept Houston in the game until the final minute of play on the road.  Before you start calling for Matt Schaub's resignation, let this one ride out for a few weeks - Keenum will have plenty to prove if Arian Foster's injury lingers and as teams get more used to his tendencies as a QB.  Still, he gets an A- out of the gate, which is more than we can say for Schaub.

Redskins Revival - Washington is still in a 2.5-game hole if this team wants to keep another division title in sight, but as we learned last season, a confident Robert Griffin is a very dangerous guy.  And he's got some new friends to diversify his attack with in rookie TE Jordan Reed and RB Roy Helu, who ruined Alfred Morris-having fantasy teams everywhere with 3 TDs on Sunday.  Moreover, they kept the normally opportunistic Bears to just manageable enough to eke it out in a shootout.  It wasn't an ideal win for a team that still has too many liabilities on defense, but there's still a glimmer of hope for a team that might yet win some track meets.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 7 Prediction - There's almost literally nothing to write home about when it comes to my picks this week.  Although I was too chicken to pick the Colts, at least I allowed for the possibility I spose:

• "I’m going to keep betting Broncos until proven wrong, but the Colts do have a slim path to victory here: let Andrew Luck play hero ball and stop handing off to Trent Richardson for 3 yards/carry. The kid is almost as good as his predecessor in the no huddle and Denver’s secondary is looking a bit more questionable than it used to. Let’s see if Indy’s upset factor continues to have truth against the high-flying Broncos."

Week 7: The Bad Stuff

Josh Freeman Again Already? - I'm echoing the sentiments of MNF call man Jon Gruden a bit here, but it was more than a little puzzling to me that the Vikings put Josh Freeman in last night after just two weeks on the job.  With the Bears and Lions losing on Sunday, Minnesota still has/had a shot at a playoff bid and a great opportunity to get a win against the 0 - 6 Giants who have allowed an NFL-worst 35 points per game.  Why then, would you start a guy who's having the worst season of his career already and has had to both learn and unlearn playbooks in 14 days to be remotely functional?  Say what you will about Christian Ponder, at least he gave Adrian Peterson room to breathe with a few decent throws now and then.  I've mostly liked how much Coach Leslie Frazier has done with so little, but this is about the least resourceful decision he's made unless he's going for draft gold in April.  And apparently he is.

 

The Giants-Vikings Game in General: There may have been a worse game somewhere on the schedule in the past seven weeks, but I can't think of a more torturous game that I've watched in prime time than the Giants and Vikings on Monday Night.  Per Josh Freeman starting above, dude completed 35% of his passes but somehow OC Bill Musgrave thought it was perfectly fine for him to rack up 50 mostly horribly overthrown passing attempts.  As a result, Adrian Peterson was a ghost with nowhere to run and neither team broke 3 yards/carry.  Both Freeman and Manning could have notched multiple interceptions thrown right into the numbers of their respective defenders, but apparently these two secondaries and their special teams units spent some part of the pregame immersing their arms in Novacaine in order to lob the ball into their opponents' hands.  Nothing short of an abomination, and we get to watch Minnesota do it all over again next Sunday night.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 7 Prediction: Where to even begin?  By far, the game that was most surprising to me as a whole was the Redskins-Bears rumble at FedEx Field.  Chicago held on admirably despite losing Jay Cutler early, but where in the heck did that defense go?

• "Wasn't it around this time last year that the Redskins came out of nowhere to win seven straight and take the NFC East by surprise?  No matter, Chicago's defense will take a page from Capitol Hill and shut Washington down... See what I did there?"

Week 7 Feature: Why the Patriots Field Goal Call Is Fine

Arguably the hottest topic in the football universe this week is the controversial call at the end of the Patriots-Jets that helped New York put the game away in overtime.  In case you didn't see it, the Jets attempted and missed a 56-yard field goal that would have clinched the win.  However, instead of giving the Patriots the ball with excellent field position, the officials whistled New England for an unnecessary roughness call that gave the Jets a first down and a 15-yard head start.  The problem?  This is the first time that such a rule--created in the offseason of 2013--had ever been enforced.  I can understand Pats' fans concerns about the call since it was an awfully controversial and high-stakes moment to unveil it.  Still, in the interest of being a thorn in my friends' side, here's why these guys and their fans should quit whining and learn to love the call (or at least accept it):

1. Few teams have benefited as mightily from bizarre but properly enforced rules as the Patriots.  In fact the NFL rules committee finally eliminated the Tuck Rule earlier this year because it's ridiculous, but it enabled this team to go to the Super Bowl.
2. The Patriots already got a Mulligan on this very rule last week in the Saints game.
3. It is a rule meant to protect players' safety that was proposed by players themselves in the offseason.  Surely the Patriots can empathize with those worried about major injuries during routine special teams plays.
4. New England is lucky to be 5 - 2 the way it is with an enormous pile of injuries to overcome and Tom Brady having one of his least productive years ever. Given that the Patriots were a miserable 1 for 12 on third down conversions on Sunday, there's no guarantee they would have won anyhow if the penalty had not been called.
5. Finally, this is nowhere as terrible of a call as Fail Mary was for the Packers a year ago.  In that situation, the call was clearly incorrect and changed the outcome of the game beyond a reason of doubt.  Ultimately, it also meant that the Packers did not get a bye week or homefield advantage in the divisional round that they would have otherwise had.  It'll be interesting to see if this game has any similar impact on the Patriots in January, but if it does, you still can't argue that the call was incorrect.

Week 7 Picks for Every NFL Game

Onward and upward to Week 7!  I had a nice rebound after several weeks of mediocrity in Week 6, so let's see if we can keep that momentum going with lots of intra-division and intra-conference slugfests on the schedule:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts - It’s homecoming weekend with this Lady Blitz Game of the Week. Peyton Manning intends to put on a show at Lucas Oil where I suspect more than a few Colts fans will be dusting off their #18 jerseys. I’m going to keep betting Broncos until proven wrong, but the Colts do have a slim path to victory here: let Andrew Luck play hero ball and stop handing off to Trent Richardson for 3 yards/carry. The kid is almost as good as his predecessor in the no huddle and Denver’s secondary is looking a bit more questionable than it used to. Let’s see if Indy’s upset factor continues to have truth against the high-flying Broncos.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) - This ought to be a fine shoot out and a key divisional battle.  Moreover, we may be in for a preview of a sudden death rematch to come in Week 17 since the Giants and Redskins might as well not suit up at this point.  I know I should pick the opposite of what I think when it comes to the NFC East, but with DeMarco Murray and DeMarcus Ware out for the Cowboys, Philly should have an easier time controlling Dallas' offense and getting everything it can out of LeSean McCoy and company.

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-3) - Seriously, what to do with the Bengals?  Either they're hanging with the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady or they're getting hassled by the Browns and Bills.  If Geno & friends can get to Matt Stafford early and often, Cincy has a shot this week.  Nevertheless, Detroit is looking like the real deal now that Stafford has some offensive weapons not named Megatron at his disposal.

San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Tennessee Titans - With Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis back in the mix, the 49ers have a lot more offensive muster than they did a couple weeks ago. This could be a close, low-scoring game as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick protects the football, but I still expect the 49ers to come out on top.  Don't expect Tennessee to roll over though.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) - No matter how good, bad or lop-sided these rivals’ fortunes are during the other 14 weeks of the season, they’re always at their ferocious best for their two annual head-to-head contests. Look no further than last year when the eventual Super Bowl champs lost at home to Charlie freaking Batch who might as well have had three limbs to work with. The Ravens ought to win this one on paper, and I was impressed with their defensive efforts against the Packers last week so here we are, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Arizona Cardinals - Barring a couple of blowouts against the 49ers and Jaguars, the Seahawks have been playing things pretty close this year. That’s good news for a Cardinals defense that continues to impress in spite of Carson Palmer’s spotty contributions on offense. But those spotty contributions spell trouble against a Seattle defense that continues to hold up its end of the bargain with a much less mistake-prone QB.

New England Patriots (-4) at New York Jets - After the big to-do last week that Rob Gronkowski was set to take the field, will it really happen this week? If so, the Jets defense, while impressive, will have its hands full. I’m tempted to take New York out of bitter resentment for what New England was able to do against the Saints last week, but I’m just kidding myself. Tom Brady is that good no matter which exploding Spinal Tap drummer he’s throwing to.

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-6) - Here’s an interesting riddle for you: Carolina is 2 - 3 but its wins were by an average margin of 32 points whereas the 3 - 3 Rams are either scoring or allowing 30 points in their respective wins and losses. Will we have a feast or a famine on our hands Sunday since neither team has beaten an impressive opponent yet this year? Given the Panthers stark statistical advantage on defense and on a home field, I’m curious to see how they screw it up now that I believe in them.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10) - Weird coincidence: the Packers and Browns have the same number of wins so far this season. Normally, I’d write this off as a small sample size that’s bound to diverge this week and onward, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Aaron Rodgers lost two important weapons in Randall Cobb and James Jones last week. Good thing Eddie Lacy is giving Green Bay its best ground game in years to squeak by a good Cleveland defense at Lambeau this week.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-8) - Miami got a bye week just in time to adjust its running game a bit and get that pass rush healthy again. The Bills have had no such luck with a revolving door of ailing QBs and now have the unenviable task of choosing between hobbling Thad Lewis, undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel and overpaid non-starter for three previous franchises Matt Flynn. This could get ugly to say the least.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - If the Jaguars can approach this game with the same intensity they gave at Mile High last week, they might only lose by 3 - 4 instead.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (PK) - Wasn't it around this time last year that the Redskins came out of nowhere to win seven straight and take the NFC East by surprise?  No matter, Chicago's defense will take a page from Capitol Hill and shut Washington down... See what I did there?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7) - So the 0 - 5 Bucs will face off with the 1 - 4 Falcons to earn back some pride points this weekend. It’s a Saints fan’s dream, but you have to wonder if it’s too early for these teams to try to tank so they can tap into a deep upcoming draft class.  Either way, Atlanta's still the better team and likely wanting to prove a lot more to themselves than the Schiano Men.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - Two weeks into the season, this would have been a Top Shelf game against two rising AFC superpowers.  Instead, Alex Smith may end up having a career day against a Texans defense that has hit rock bottom.  If not, I'm guessing the Chiefs pass rush can take care of T.J. Yates or whoever.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-3.5) - Will this finally be the week the woeful Giants get a little charity from some Norseman also-rans?  With extra rest and a pretty porous opponent, New York has as good an opportunity as any to save a little face or let Matt Cassel/Christian Ponder look like a genius. 


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 4
Season Record: 59 - 33

Week 6 Recap and Five Sleeper Teams to Watch

Without a drawn out introduction, here's your Lady Blitz Week 6 Recap and five sleeper teams to watch in the playoff hunt:

Week 6: The Good Stuff

The Jaguars, Sort of - So Jacksonville still ended up losing just as we thought they would at Mile High on Sunday, but at least they made a real game of it, hanging with the Broncos for three quarters and putting up 19 points that weren't in garbage time for a change.  Lest we forget 7 of those points were off of Peyton Manning's first pick six of the season.  It's a small, purely moral victory, but it gives you pause that Jacksonville isn't starting Chad Henne over Blaine Gabbert every week and that Denver's defense is looking a bit more fallible than previously thought.

Cam Newton This Week - Make no mistake, the Vikings defense isn't exactly the destroyer of worlds, but you can't dispute the way Cam Newton stepped up this weekend after a rough outing in Arizona last week.  Newton was deadly efficient, completing 20 of 26 passing attempts for 3 TDs and adding another TD on the ground.  With games against the struggling Rams, Bucs and Falcons up next, the Panthers might have just enough confidence to scrape 0.500 or better before the season's up.

Boston's Nine Lives - Did anyone actually go to work on Monday in the greater Boston area?  These sports fans were bestowed not one but two miracles on Sunday night with unbelievable comebacks by the Patriots and Red Sox.  It's pretty much an anti-Atlanta situation.  It's a gut punch for me to even recognize the Patriots this week for obvious reasons, but credit Tom Brady for doing what Tom Brady does: forget the past 58 minutes of drops, turnovers and sacks and drive an ever-thinner receiving corps down the field in 1.5 minutes to score the walk-off TD.  I hope Brady at least writes Saints punter Thomas Morstead a thank you card for giving him a 15-yard head start.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 6 Prediction - Sometimes, I hate being right:

• "I am more than a little fearful of the wrath of Brady after he was shut out in Cincy last week...  In the interest of jinxing the Saints to victory, the Pats have it at home."

Week 6: The Bad Stuff

Terrelle Pryor Takes 50 Steps Back - Don't get me wrong, Terrelle Pryor's already earned his keep this year in Oakland simply by virtue of not being Matt Flynn.  Still, he's a long way from competitive against the better defenses in the league like the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs who intercepted the young QB three times on Sunday.  Yet Oakland's lowest offensive moment had to be the series in which they had two penalties and allowed two sacks on three consecutive plays, forcing the Raiders to punt on 4th and 48.  4th and 48.  As in, punting on first down was the least ineffectual option that Dennis Allen had in the playbook in hindsight.

Houston, Problem-Having - I'm absolutely stunned at how rough things have been for the Houston Texans this season.  Just a year after going 12 - 4 and winning a playoff game for the second consecutive year, there seems to be no answer to turn this ship around.  I say that not to be dramatic but because of the way the Texans are losing these days; they could easily be 0 - 6 at this point and have gone 3 - 8 in their last 11 regular season games.  The defense that showed such unique ability a year ago is giving up 30 points a game, and all of the Arian Fosters in the world can't keep pace with that when Matt Schaub is having the worst year of his career. Speaking of, the mob mentality of the fans sure isn't giving Houston any PR points-- they are still a far cry from Matt Cassel levels of indignation. But you have to start wondering how many heads might roll between now and February, especially since the Texans still have to face the Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots and Andrew Luck's Colts twice. 

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 6 Prediction: Few saw this one coming, but the Texans are in serious trouble after dropping their fourth game straight. Houston's offense performed close to how I envisioned, but the defense made Sam Bradford look like a Pro Bowler:

• "This seems like just the kind of game that could end with a score of 6 - 3. These two offenses have had a very rough month to say the least, and their defenses aren't turning the ball over nearly enough to atone for it.  But the Texans have Arian Foster and at least 9 reasons to keep the ball out of Matt Schaub's hands."

Week 6 Feature: Five Sleeper Teams to Watch

The earliest sketches of the playoff picture are starting to come into focus with over a third of the season behind us (Yikes!).  Barring a nuclear meltdown, MRSA colony or other unforeseen circumstances, teams like the Broncos, Chiefs, Patriots, and Seahawks (and another 5 - 1 team that shall not be jinxed) look like locks at this point.  But there are always a couple of darkhorses like last year's Redskins and Vikings that seem to come out of nowhere and give us something less predictable to cheer about.  Going on schedule, divisional landscape, and vast improvements over last season, here are five potential sleeper teams to watch in these next few critical weeks:

Carolina Panthers - Without a doubt, the Panthers are the longest shot of any team on this list after another slow start to the season and uneven play on offense.  But watching Cam Newton put on a clinic this past Sunday reminds me of how dangerous this team could be with a little more consistency.  In fact, Carolina is already a top 10 team in rushing yards and a top 3 team in yards and points allowed, and Ron Rivera is finally getting a little more confident in his offensive play-calling.

The Schedule Ahead: Just under half of the Panthers' remaining games are against teams with winning records, but the biggest litmus test will be the NFC South.  Carolina won't face any divisional opponents until Week 8, which could go a long way if they get on a roll since the Falcons and Bucs are really struggling.

Keys to Success: Other than having a strong showing in the division, the Panthers need to stay healthy.  Having the earliest bye week of the season leaves little room for adjustment with an already thin receiving corps, aging running backs, and a QB that gets hit quite a bit.


Philadelphia Eagles - With the exception of the Giants, the NFC East is still anyone's game.  The Cowboys are the early favorites with Tony Romo having a decent season, but these Eagles are looking mighty sneaky lately too, especially with Nick Foles making a strong case for replacing Michael Vick.  Although his short NFL career isn't the most glowing in terms of wins, Foles kept a lot of games close last season when Philly was a lost cause and has already earned two of the Eagles' three wins this year.  He fits well in Chip Kelly's system as a fairly accurate passer who can find the open man quickly and scramble when the situation suits.

The Schedule Ahead: Philly is already 2 - 0 in the NFC East, and the way things are going, the Eagles may only need to get 8 or 9 total wins this season to take the division crown.  That's some comfort since they'll still need to face the high-octane Packers, Lions, and Bears with a barely functioning defense.

Keys to Success: The Eagles look like they'll be on a collision course with the Cowboys this season for a playoff spot, so hosting them this upcoming week and playing in Dallas to close things out in Week 17 are hugely important for Philly's playoff implications.  It also wouldn't hurt to find answers on defense to keep up with an exhaustingly quick offense, but let's not go crazy.


Detroit Lions - Sleeper, you say?  But the Lions are leading the NFC North as we speak!  That's true, but they'll need to sustain this record against the much more reliable Packers and Bears down the stretch with some good opponents left on the schedule.  Even so, Detroit's offense has been quite productive with the exception of Megatron's absence in Green Bay a couple weeks ago, which is just what they'll need to stay at the top of a competitive division.  Solid play from the defensive line and a growing cast of playmakers like Reggie Bush and Joseph Fauria could give the Lions the sustained advantage they need.

The Schedule Ahead: The Lions have already gotten four road games out of the way and get to play 7 out of 10 remaining indoors, which should only help the cause for speedy Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson.  They are already 2 - 1 in the division, so if Detroit can pull off two more wins at home, they might just have this thing.

Keys to Success: Health and composure in the late stages of the game.  Johnson's already fighting another banged up knee, and Matt Stafford has had his licks over the years.  Detroit blew a lot of fourth quarter leads last year, but so far, they've risen to the challenge in 2013.


San Diego Chargers - The Chargers may have drawn the divisional short straw since they share the AFC West with the 6 - 0 Chiefs and Broncos.  Still, Philip Rivers has blossomed under Coach Mike McCoy's leadership, and this team is superb in terms of time of possession, which will come in handy with Peyton Manning and Alex Smith.  San Diego will still need a lot of help from other AFC wild card candidates, but at least they've already beaten the Colts and have the Dolphins coming up.

The Schedule Ahead: It's a make or break schedule for the Chargers from November onward.  They play the Broncos and Chiefs twice as well as playoff hopefuls Miami and Cincinnati. Getting all three divisional rivals in the last three weeks of the season may not be the worst thing if Denver and/or KC decides to rest their starters.

Keys to Success: Consistency is key for San Diego this year, especially since they have yet to win two consecutive games.  They'll also need to pitch a perfect game with the remaining divisional schedule to give themselves some margin in the wild card competition.


Tennessee Titans - How about those Titans?  I daresay they're a little better than their 3 - 3, and it's mostly due to a vastly improved defense that has kept Tennessee in every game it has played this season.  What's more, Jake Locker is finally looking like a functional quarterback, which is more than previous division favorite Houston can say.

The Schedule Ahead: Tennessee will have to face the Colts twice, but this defense has never looked more ready for the challenge and has a shot at at least splitting the series.  With the exception of these and upcoming games against the 49ers and Broncos, the rest of the Titans' schedule is against teams with records of 0.500 or worse including two games with the Jaguars.

Keys to Success: Tennessee needs to stick to this new ground-and-pound identity with steady defensive performance and minimal mistakes under center from Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jake Locker.  They aren't likely to win in track meets, so controlling the tempo of the game early will keep a few more within reach for this darkhorse team.

Week 6 Picks for Every NFL Game

Be sure to let Matt Schaub know this says Week "Six Picks" instead of "pick six."  Poor guy has gone from hardly noticeable mediocrity to an outright implosion under center for the Texans.  Speaking of implosions, I had another sub-par week in my own picks this past weekend, but I'm almost positive I single-handedly jinxed the Saints into victory and the Falcons into defeat as a result.  If being wrong yields these kinds of results, I really don't ever want to be right.  But here's what I think will happen this weekend:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-2.5) - The Gronk returneth on Sunday in Foxboro to square off against Jimmy Graham and the Saints.  Add to that mix two of the greatest coaching minds in the game today and two Hall of Fame QBs and you've got yourself a heck of a Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  I am more than a little fearful of the wrath of Brady after he was shut out in Cincy last week, and if the Pats beating four teams this year without Gronk feels like winning with one hand tied behind their backs, they are about to get a knockout punch back in their toolbox.  In the interest of jinxing the Saints to victory, the Pats have it at home.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Baltimore Ravens - Having Clay Matthews out for a month is a big blow for the Packers, but they hit the jackpot by getting to face the offenses of the Ravens, Browns and Vikings during that time.  The Ravens have a shot at this if Ray Rice can help the offense chip away at the clock and open up some safe passing lanes for Flacco, but I haven't seen enough so far this season to believe that will happen.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-27.5) -You're reading that right: the Broncos are 4-TD favorites over Jacksonville, a point spread that is unheard of in the NFL.  While this would usually be a House Punch game by any standard, this could be just the kind of trainwreck you won't want to take your eyes off of.  Since we haven't seen Brock Osweiler take a snap yet this season, I'm guessing Peyton will feel perfectly comfortable padding his stats like there's no tomorrow with at least 350 passing yards and 5 TDs.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) - Just to make things interesting, how cool would it be if RGIII suddenly had a resurgence after the Redskins' bye and shredded the Cowboys' secondary just like he did on Thanksgiving last year?  I'm still holding out hope that the rest did him well and he can rediscover some of that mojo, but I just can't see the Washington defense stacking up against the same Tony Romo that put up 500 yards and 5 TDs last week.

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at San Diego Chargers - I've enjoyed watching both of these teams more than expected so far this season due in large part to very smart offensive play.  You can never count out Andrew Luck - that is for certain.  But on a hunch that the Chargers are slightly better than their record and the Colts might have stolen that win against Seattle last week, this feels like a prime opportunity for San Diego to gain back some ground in the hotly contested AFC.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) - The jury's still out on Terrelle Pryor after a solid performance in the wee hours last Sunday, but we can be thankful that the AFC West is suddenly very interesting, especially since the usually competitive NFC East and NFC South are total duds.  I love how the Chiefs are slogging it out this season even if their record might be a bit shinier than it ought to be.  With confidence riding high and more veteran experience than the Raiders, Kansas City triples its win total from 2012 at home this week.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns - Megatron pulled an Irish exit on all of us Sunday, and the Lions offense suffered mightily against Green Bay as a result.  I'm making this pick based on the assumption that he'll return to action in Cleveland this weekend, but the Lions will have a tough time against that stout Browns defense either way.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-2.5) - One thing that got lost in the mix during the darker periods of Rex Ryan's tenure was how good he managed to make Mark Sanchez look for two whole years.  Really.  They went to two AFC Championships with this guy:

Rex's defense is looking vintage after a stunning performance against the Falcons on Monday night, and despite the Steelers getting an extra week and a day off, I am surprised to say I like New York terrorizing Big Ben and that shoddy offensive line on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) - If this game were being played in Tennessee at noon, it could potentially make the Top Shelf due to some stellar early defensive performances between these two teams.  Instead, the Seahawks should have this one pretty handily at home where they have a league-best 10 game winning streak at the moment.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-11) - Credit the Cardinals' defense for keeping them competitive in most games so far this season.  They may keep things interesting for a couple of quarters against Colin Kaepernick, who has come back down to Earth for the most part this year.  Nevertheless, I'll take a mediocre Kaepernick over any kind of Carson Palmer any day.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-8) - So Eli Manning and David Wilson like coughing up the football?  Peanut Tillman will gladly invite them over for chilli dogs and kidney punches while they extend their misery tour in Chicago on Thursday.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Did a bye and a major roster shakeup do the Bucs some good?  In all honesty, they have nowhere to go but up after the very public spat between Josh Freeman and the management.  I'm willing to take a chance here that Tampa gets a temporary boost with very good defense and ample possessions for Mike Glennon to find a way past the much shakier Philly defense.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) - I'm none too sure about this one.  What has been glossed over in Carolina's paltry 1 - 3 start is how good that Panthers defense is, especially with total yards and points allowed.  The Vikings have a recent bye and homefield advantage to help them out, so if Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel can do just enough to open things up for AP, I like Minnesota's odds just ever so slightly better.

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans (-7.5) - This seems like just the kind of game that could end with a score of 6 - 3. These two offenses have had a very rough month to say the least, and their defenses aren't turning the ball over nearly enough to atone for it.  But the Texans have Arian Foster and at least 9 reasons to keep the ball out of Matt Schaub's hands.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills - Poor Bills.  I was just starting to really like E.J. Manuel too.  Instead, the team that just shut out Tom Brady for the first time in 53 games gets to toy with poor Thad Lewis while he's still basically looking for an apartment in Buffalo. Yeesh.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 6
Season Record: 48 -29

Week 5 Recap and Can the Broncos Go 16 - 0?

Are you getting a sense that the Haves are starting to separate themselves from the Have Nots?  Other than in the accursed NFC East of course where even the 0 - 5 Giants are still somehow only two games back.  Elsewhere though, the Broncos, Chiefs and Saints all had big road games to remain undefeated while the Jaguars continue to make everyone else look good.  With a litany of notable performances and league happenings to sort through, here's your Lady Blitz Week 5 Recap and my assessment of whether the Broncos can go 16 - 0.

Week 5: The Good Stuff

A Shootout in Big D - Sweet Kanye does Romo know how to ruin a game better than anyone else.  But for the other 58 minutes of the Cowboys-Broncos game, you couldn't have asked for a more exciting offensive duel between Peyton Manning and Tony Romo.  The pair combined for a staggering 920 passing yards and 9 TDs on the day, 10 if you count Manning's sneaky rushing TD.  It wasn't the prettiest performance for either team's defense, but this game will certainly be one of the most memorable of the season and perhaps the Broncos' biggest hurdle to 16 - 0. And though the hits are coming in the Bad Stuff section, credit Tony Romo for playing the game of his life and giving Dallas a wildly unexpected chance to win against one of the best teams we've ever seen.

Cincinnati's Shut Down Defense - The fanfare for next week's Saints-Patriots game got just a little less interesting thanks to the Bengals' stingy defensive performance on Sunday that held Tom Brady to 0 TDs for the first time in 53 weeks and less than 200 passing yards.  Brady was just two games shy of tying Drew Brees' record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass but was sacked four times in Cincinnati and intercepted inside the 5-yardline with seconds to go in the fourth quarter.  You could blame the torrential rain or the scab-quality receiving corps Brady has had to work with this season, but there's no getting around how scary the Bengals' defense has become.  They've already made mincemeat of three Super Bowl winning QBs this season (Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger).

Rex and Rob on the Road - How about those Ryan brothers rising from the ashes this season?  Rob is fitting in nicely in New Orleans judging by the size of his beignet-filled gut.  His Saints defense continues to put pressure on the quarterback week after week and hasn't allowed a single opponent to break 20 points this year.  What?!  Then there's Rex's Jets who held the Falcons to just 64 yards on the ground last night and made a stunning goal-line stand to end the half and ultimately preserve the win at the Georgia Dome.  Both of these guys have been humbled in recent years, so all the swagger feels a little more grounded and a lot more justified for their spectacular starts to 2013.

A Special Corner for Pierre Thomas - This may be the only time I reasonably get to feature my very favorite Saints player on this blog.  He's not the flashiest when it comes to stats or explosive plays, but he's been a consistent glue guy for New Orleans since his first electrifying start at Soldier Field where he put up over 200 yards from scrimmage back in 2007.  Good things tend to happen for Thomas on that field, as he had one of his best games in recent years on Sunday with 90 all-purpose yards, 2 TDs and a number of clutch third- and fourth-down runs to keep the chains moving.  His 25-yard scamper into the end zone reminded me of the good old days.  And as Grantland's Bill Barnwell pointed out last week, Thomas is emblematic of the army of undrafted and late round nobodies who so often find a home on Sean Payton's offense.  Good stuff indeed.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 5 Prediction - It wasn't exactly rocket science, but the Titans-Chiefs bout ended up just about how I thought it would:

• "The Titans will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep the chains moving and protect the ball against one of the best pass rushes in the early part of this season. Kansas City already has that guy in Alex Smith, and the Chiefs should command the line of scrimmage by the time the fourth quarter rolls around."

Week 5: The Bad Stuff

Romo's Gonna Romo - Oh to be a Cowboys fan at any point since 1996.  Seriously, few fanbases in sports have been so abused by great expectations in tandem with crushing, inevitable disappointment.  Cue the Sarah McLachlan music.  Case and point: Tony Romo has an aforementioned career game against a Denver team that has looked otherwise unstoppable. All he has to do is march Dallas down the field and into field goal range with two minutes left in the game since he's been gashing the Broncos defense all day. But you already know how this one ends.  Even now, you'll be able to Google lots of pundits who are wringing their hands at how unfair it is to beat up on Romo for his perceived shortcomings in the clutch. They're mostly getting paid a lot of money by a league that generates a great amount of revenue from the Cowboys, and they do not know the definition of insanity.  But to add shades of complexity to this pat statement, at least he had a better day than Schaub, Gabbert, and one other equally inconsistent but crazy-lucky guy...

The Giants. Again. - These guys might end up having a permanent home here on The Bad Stuff.  With a golden opportunity yet again to right the ship against a struggling Eagles team at home, they really couldn't have done much worse this week especially considering that Michael Vick went out fairly early in the game.  Only these 2013 Giants could have a great shot at locking up a win like this and wind up with Eli turning the ball over on three consecutive drives in the fourth quarter.  New York now has 20 turnovers in just 5 games and has allowed over 30 points every single week.  Tom Coughlin better watch out - I hear Lane Kiffin is looking for a job.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 5 Prediction: It was staring me right in the face, but then again, Ron Rivera's Panthers are just the kind of team that could still lose after picking off Carson Palmer three times:

• "I really want to pick the Cardinals in this one because they’re a little closer to mediocre than people think, and they can definitely give Cam Newton the shakedown with a solid pass defense. Still, the Panthers are coming off a bye and probably feeling pretty good about their chances of sacking Carson Palmer after a dominant win against the Giants two weeks ago."

Week 5 Feature: Can the Broncos Go 16 - 0?

Denver dodged a heck of a bullet in Dallas this week.  They owe Tony Romo comps in Augusta or something anyway.  So now the surviving '72 Dolphins are probably starting to get a little bit antsy as they eye the rest of Denver's manageable schedule and Peyton Manning's unprecedented performance under center so far this season. Can the Broncos do it?  Here are some things to watch over the next three months:

Team Health - This one is a giant "duh" but one need look only to the Patriots to see how the mighty can fall over the course of a month when skill players go down.  Luckily for the Broncos, the receiver depth is so vast these guys could sniff test tubes at the CDC and still find someone to catch the ball.  Further, Denver has dealt with roster absences swimmingly so far with Pro Bowlers Von Miller and Champ Bailey out on defense (save Sunday in Dallas of course) and Ryan Clady out on the O-line.  A whole lot of things can go right with even a second string supporting cast as long as No. 18 stays upright.  One need look only at Sunday's performance at the line of scrimmage to see that Manning isn't going anywhere any time soon.  He had all day to go through his progressions in the pocket against the likes of Demarcus Ware and the Broncos currently lead the league with just 5 sacks allowed on the year.

Opponent Parity - So if not the team that put up 48 points against the Broncos, who else has the best shot at taking these guys down this season?  I'm guessing it won't be the profoundly struggling defenses of Jacksonville or Washington.  Of last year's fellow #1 seeds, Denver already took down the Ravens with ease in Week 1 and the Texans are shells of their former selves now that Matt Schaub is basically Steve Blass.  The Patriots are fragile too despite their 4 - 1 start, but keep an eye on this game.  Tom Brady owns this series and it won't resume until the end of November; that means more health and rapport for Brady's receivers and potentially chilly conditions in Foxboro that have given Manning a hard time in the past.  I'm guessing the Patriots aren't ready to share the 16 - 0 nod with an arch nemesis either.  Denver also faces the Colts who've already taken down preseason favorites San Francisco and Seattle and have upset potential here, though Kaepernick and Wilson aren't exactly Robo-Manning.  Other than that, perhaps the biggest question mark is how surprisingly decent the rest of the AFC West is this year.  Who knows what might happen if the Chiefs pass rush gets into Manning's head or if Philip Rivers or Terrelle Pryor take a page from Tony Romo and stir up a shoot out?  Regardless, it's hard to imagine picking against the Broncos as long as No. 18 is playing at this level of extra-terrestrial.

The Vulnerability Curve - I'm sure there's a real term for this out there in the sports universe, but the longer the Broncos go without a loss, the bigger the target gets on their back.  Talking heads and coaches alike will zero in on any vulnerabilities they can find (like that, ahem, secondary) in order to take down this year's Moby Dick.  If there's any reason for Denver to be concerned, it's that Manning has lost some zip on his arm and relies heavily on no-huddle audibles to outwit opposing defenses.  Should a growing pile of film study reveal a few of his tricks of the trade, the savvier defensive squads coming up may have a chance to slow the Broncos down or at least force Peyton into a couple costly mistakes to get within reach.  And as illustrious a career as Peyton Manning's had, he can be his own worst enemy when things aren't going his way, especially as the stakes get higher.

So can they do it? I gotta say no, and it may be better for this team to take some pressure off before January rolls around.  As impressive as Denver has been through five weeks, there are tougher, more well-rounded opponents and road games ahead.  The six week stretch including the Patriots and Titans as well as the Chargers and Chiefs twice a piece ought to be the Broncos' biggest test and what goes up must come down.

Week 5 Picks for Every NFL Game

You might have surmised from my fly-by-night posts this week that it's been jam-packed.  In fact, this may be the first you're hearing about the long-expired Week 4 Recap.  (Here it is).  You know the deal, what goes up must come down and I'm hoping for the converse this week.  Here are my Week 5 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Indianapolis Colts - For those like myself who were pleasantly surprised with the Colts' ability to compete against ground-and-pound styles like the 49ers a couple of weeks ago, this is another big test for Indy.  The head-to-head between the more successful half of our Gang of Four makes this the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The Seahawks might look a little sleepy at the beginning of yet another game, but I'm pretty much betting on them to find a way to win until proven otherwise, and now they get good ole Bruce Irvin back to add to Andrew Luck's QB hits.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) - How about those Patriots getting it done on the road last week? Cincinnati is healthier and more talented than previous opponent Atlanta in many ways, but the Bengals are still dealing with a number of inconsistencies, especially on offense.  Nevertheless, I'll give Cincinnati the benefit of the doubt with Vince Wilfork out for the Pats and the comforts of homefield.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7) - Virtually no team wants an early bye week, but Green Bay was sorely in need after a number of injuries in the first couple of weeks. The Packers will be eager to get back to work against a surprisingly hot division rival at Lambeau on Sunday, and if they can get Eddie Lacy to wear out a solid Detroit defensive line, they should eke this one out.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (PK) - The Saints are smoking on both sides of the ball at the moment, lest we forget they’ve played 3 out of 4 at home so far this season. If New Orleans’ defense can harass Jay Cutler the way the Lions did last week, they can absolutely come out on top. Having said that, the Bears are a similarly balanced force to be reckoned with and I think homefield advantage gives them quite an edge this weekend.

Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys - I wonder if Demarcus Ware is having any trouble sleeping at night this week with the tall task the Cowboys have in stopping Peyton Manning on Sunday. While Dallas still looks like the early favorite to win the NFC East, I’m none too confident they’ll have the answer against No. 18 this weekend, especially after watching Philip Rivers pick them apart in San Diego last week.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) - They may not be hoisting a Lombardi anytime soon, but you have to admire the Bills' and Browns' mettle in getting to 2 - 2 so far this season.  I feel like Cleveland's streak with Brian Hoyer can't last forever, but I'll take him and Jordan Cameron over the yet-developing E.J. Manuel at this point.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3) - Which Joe Flacco is headed to South Beach this weekend? That’s the question with Cameron Wake potentially on the sidelines and the Dolphins a little less sure of themselves after being routed in New Orleans. The Ravens have been a bit more inconsistent than the Dolphins so far this year so this pick is a gamble, but their best is still a little better than Miami's in my book.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2) - How did this thing end up on the Well Drink shelf? Merely because it’s anyone’s division in the NFC East, and this matchup has the potential to be a wild and sloppy one between two desperate, uneven teams. Also, you have to wonder if Chip Kelly has gotten the college gimmick beaten out of him enough to adjust to the realities of pro football. I’m not sure who to put minimal trust in at this point, so I'm hoping Eli has a big game against a very shaky Eagles defense.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) - What an agonizing start for this Texans team that looked like it had it all in 2012. Maybe Gary Kubiak will draw inspiration from Jim Harbaugh across the sidelines and start entertaining a change under center after Matt Schaub has tossed a pick six in three consecutive weeks. Although the 49ers durability is still in question with a number of injuries/non-injuries at linebacker and receiver, the ten days of rest can only help this team reestablish its identity and come out swinging at home on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tennessee Titans - This one has all the makings of a hardfought but low-scoring affair, especially with the developing Jake Locker out for a few weeks. The Titans will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep the chains moving and protect the ball against one of the best pass rushes in the early part of this season. Kansas City already has that guy in Alex Smith, and the Chiefs should command the line of scrimmage by the time the fourth quarter rolls around.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5) - The Rams have their atonement cut out for themselves after three straight uninspiring losses. NFL punching bag Jacksonville comes to town this week to give them a little boost of confidence, especially on offense.

Carolina Panthers (-2) at Arizona Cardinals - I really want to pick the Cardinals in this one because they’re a little closer to mediocre than people think, and they can definitely give Cam Newton the shakedown with a solid pass defense. Still, the Panthers are coming off a bye and probably feeling pretty good about their chances of sacking Carson Palmer after a dominant win against the Giants two weeks ago.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders - The poor Raiders will continue to get left behind in the surprisingly competitive AFC West this week when Philip Rivers makes another case for runner up MVP.

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-10) - The Falcons may be getting Steven Jackson back soon, which ought to boost an offense that desperately needs balance especially in the red zone. The Jets have already surpassed expectations by getting to 0.500 in September, but Atlanta will put an end to that on Monday night.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 7
Season Record: 40 -23