Playoff Picks: NFL Championship Weekend

When the dust settles tomorrow, we'll know our 2017 Super Bowl contenders as well as who else is going to turn down a meaningless Pro Bowl invite due to unforeseen injury.  I gotta say, I'm none too thrilled about the prospect of any of these teams making it to February - three of them have won at least two Lombardis in my lifetime, and well, the other is the Falcons.  Seriously, anyone but the Falcons.  So I will begrudgingly make my picks now and try to work up some excitement by the time you hear back from me.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)

The Run-Down: In terms of quarterback matchups, it just doesn't get much better than the top two MVP candidates licking their chops against some fairly bad defenses on Sunday afternoon.  With the over/under at a record-breaking 61 points, this could well come down to who has the ball last in a game built to be an insanely fun shootout.

The Case for the Packers: Aaron Rodgers is quite simply on a mission from God, and despite the misgivings you might have about Green Bay's overall balance on defense and in the backfield, this guy just continues to make ridiculous plays that can't be stopped by physics or defensive backs.  Sure, Matt Ryan is playing just as good or better right now in every major passing category, but after watching Rodgers call his own run-the-table shot with eight straight wins, hit yet another Hail Mary, scramble his way out of an all-but-assured sack, hold onto the ball when literally anyone else would have fumbled, and nail a cross-the-body sideline throw to get in field goal range with seconds to spare, there's a certain feeling that physics, space and time cannot stop this man from crushing the dreams of all who stand in his path including an incredibly hot Falcons offense.  The Packers don't have a lot of on-paper advantages over the Falcons, but they've got intangibles in spades with this late-season momentum, lots of postseason experience and all the confidence in the world going into a tough NFC Championship.  Even if they trail through earlier parts of the game, it's almost impossible to imagine Green Bay not being in it right up to the end in this one, and 30 seconds is just about all Rodgers needs to pull off another miracle.

The Case Against the Packers: Welp, I hope you're washing your hands, America, because that dreaded stomach bug has already caught up with the Packers (and Steelers) this week.  For every Michael Jordan flu game (there's literally just one), there are tens of thousands of games where seemingly passing illness and injury can take their toll on the greats.  Lest we forget, three Packers wide receivers (Nelson, Adams and Allison) are dealing with injuries that could keep them sidelined or at less than full speed to take some pressure off of their QB.  But there are certainly other more long-standing concerns to have about Green Bay too.  For one, they've needed miracle play after miracle play from Rodgers (and a couple 50+ yard field goals) to stay on this winning streak because they simply can't rely on their defense to give them a comfortable margin or on their thin, spotty running game to keep defenders from checking into coverage or running the clock down with a lead.  These are some ample reasons that the Cowboys were able to roar back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter last week and very nearly pulled off the latest in a long series of disappointing playoff losses for the Packers.  Based on some of Mike McCarthy's play-calling this past weekend, he still hasn't learned his lesson about when to be aggressive and how to preserve a lead when the getting's good.  Most concerning for Green Bay though is how banged up their secondary is, considering they're up against the #1 offense in the league.  It's possible that their two best available playmakers in Quinten Rollins and Morgan Burnett will be out or limited, opening up even more passing options for Ryan and a second level of rushing lanes for the one-two punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.  In other words, Rodgers is going to have to pitch a perfect game to have a shot in this one.

The Case for the Falcons: When your quarterback is the presumptive league MVP, there's always going to be reason for optimism heading into the playoffs, especially when you're facing a guaranteed hall of famer on the other side of the ball.  But I think Atlanta fans have to be especially heartened by how well the Falcons played in the divisional round after years of promising regular seasons that ended when Matt Ryan & co. would inevitably fall of a cliff in January.  Moreover, the Falcons aren't nearly as reliant on their quarterback to do it all as they've been in years past--or as Green Bay will be tomorrow.  They've had one of the best, healthiest offensive lines in the NFL this season and a myriad of weapons from unlikely places be it the speedy, cutting Browns castoff WR Taylor Gabriel, the two-headed monster of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman who can beat defenses on the ground or on screens, or Julio Jones peaking at the right time against a likely limited Packers secondary.  Atlanta's offense is why they're here, but they've also started to get some much-needed help on defense that could come in handy with a few extra possessions on Sunday.  In the latter part of the season, they've been on a roll in forcing turnovers and finding their pass rushing prowess anchored by bust-no-more Vic Beasley.  The Falcons' defense may not be a world-beating unit on its own at this point, but this balanced cast of characters could go a long way to get the edge against a Packers team with a lot of momentum. 

The Case Against the Falcons: You can certainly make this argument for Green Bay too, but with the Falcons making so many dramatic improvements to their offensive efficiency this season, you have to wonder if what goes up will eventually come down on this team a la the 15 - 1 Panthers in last year's Super Bowl.  Atlanta simply hasn't trailed opponents much at all this season, so there's always the chance that the Packers walk in with the hot hand, generate an opportune turnover early in the game, and build a two-possession lead or so that could bait Ryan into some of his bad habits of old.  Plus, OC mastermind Kyle Shanahan has one foot out the door with his likely first head coaching gig just around the corner in San Francisco, so there's always the possibility that the team won't be quite as focused with an awkward management situation in play.  But the most likely scenario, should the Falcons lose, will be if Green Bay's offense plays even better.  Atlanta has been able to mask some of its defensive challenges by creating a lot more turnovers in the second half of the season, and the Packers are generally pretty great at protecting the football.  If Rodgers gets the ball last in a tight game, it'll be hard to imagine just about anyone including the Falcons standing in his way.

Prediction: Make no mistake, this Saints fan is going to be the biggest Packers fan you've ever seen tomorrow afternoon, but the Falcons just have so many more ways to win than Green Bay does in this one.  With Matt Ryan playing just as well as Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will lose the one assured advantage they've had in every other game during their "run the table" streak this week.  Somebody ought to tell these guys.  Falcons 41, Packers 31

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6)

The Run-Down: Sure, this game is getting pitched as the second of two great quarterback duels on Sunday, but that would be underselling how integral these two rushing attacks have been to their teams' success this season.  Expect a little ground-and-pound, a few beautiful deep balls, and some defensive lines with their work cut out for them.

The Case for the Steelers: There's a viable argument to be made that the Steelers offense is even more versatile and balanced than that of the Falcons given the best-in-class performances of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell.  Bell in particular has been confounding every defensive line he's faced for the past eight weeks with his game-changing style of patience and vision for huge gains and consistent first down yardage.  Given that the Patriots haven't been tested much by great offenses this season (more on that later), we don't yet know what the Steelers' ceiling might be in the usually tough confines of Gillette Stadium, but they've got the talent to beat many a good defense in multiple ways that should come in handy against Bill Belichick's scheming.  Recently, there's also been more reason to be optimistic about Pittsburgh's defense too.  With the ageless (and curiously ripped 38-year-old) James Harrison and versatile Bud Dupree ruling the edges at the line of scrimmage and the Steelers' more aggressive blitzing schemes in tow, they might just take a page from the Texans last week and find ways to generate consistent pressure against Tom Brady.  This is certainly a different team than the Landry Jones-led dud that struggled against the Patriots in October, and with Bell and this defense clicking at the right time, they might have just enough big plays up their sleeve to steal one unlike everyone else in a weak AFC playoff class.

The Case Against the Steelers: Although Pittsburgh's offense has a higher ceiling than most, they aren't as consistently explosive as some of their previous versions other than Le'Veon Bell.  Ben Roethlisberger in particular has been a rollercoaster that tends to plummet at a 70 degree angle on the road.  His passer rating has been 116.7 at Heinz Field and 78.4 everywhere else this season, and you could see some cracks around the edges in that 0 TD, 1 INT performance in which the Steelers didn't make it into the end zone once at Arrowhead last weekend.  So there's reason to be nervous facing off against a Belichick-coached defense in Massachusetts if Todd Haley doesn't figure out how to mix things up and get Roethlisberger to spread the ball to more than just the likely double-covered Brown and Bell this time.  The other possible Achilles heel for the Steelers is their inexperienced secondary featuring three rookies.  They survived against Kansas City last week, but you'd expect Tom Brady to go after them with a lot of no-huddle and quick reads with his ever-replenishing roster of capable receivers if the Steelers can't keep up their recent pass rushing success.  Like the Patriots, Pittsburgh hasn't exactly faced a slate of world-beating offenses since their last loss to the Cowboys, so it's hard to gauge whether their defensive improvement is for real or a function of getting to play the rest of the faltering AFC North and a few backup QBs.

The Case for the Patriots: Welp, considering that the Patriots had the best record in the NFL this season despite missing Tom Brady for four games and that they'll be making their insane sixth-straight AFC Championship, their chances are pretty much always good.  Despite losing Rob Gronkowski ages ago and sitting out for a month, Brady has put together another MVP-caliber season of his own and could have his way against that young Steelers secondary if he gets a clean pocket.  But like the Steelers, a lot of the Patriots' offensive success this season has been rooted in a balanced running game with human wrecking ball LaGarrette Blount to muscle his way up the middle and a now-healthy Dion Lewis to round things out on the edges and in screen situations.  They've got a lot more ways to keep the chains moving and avoid turnovers than in other recent versions.  On paper, New England also has quite the upper hand defensively - they're first in points allowed, third in rushing yards allowed and third in turnover differential, giving this team far more chances to build and keep a lead than most, as usual.

The Case Against the Patriots: I'm probably going to use this same logic in my Super Bowl preview even if the Patriots beat the Steelers given how bad Big Ben can be on the road these days.  So if you're looking for potential flaws in a league-best 14 - 2 team with the top defense in NFL in terms of points allowed, consider the quarterbacks the Patriots have faced since their last loss to the Seahawks at home: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Trevor Siemian, Matt Moore and Brock Osweiler.  In fact, New England didn't face a single quarterback in the top 10 for passer rating all season, and Ben Roethlisberger is 11th, so this will certainly be their toughest offensive opponent since they traded away some great playmakers in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins.  That could have a ripple effect on the other things the Patriots have done so well this season like dictate starting field position for both sides of the ball and control the run game against teams that are usually starting behind and can't maintain balance.  At its worst, this situation could be like the recent NCAA championship between Alabama and Clemson - it was impossible to find fault in the Tide's performance up to that point against lesser competition, but once they were faced with a potent offense that could dial up big plays and run up the snap count, they were unable to adapt to a test they just hadn't faced.  The possibility of a Pats loss still feels like a long shot, but there are just enough unknowns to keep this one interesting until kick off.

Prediction: I fully expect that the Patriots will win this game and that I'll be one of the few people outside of New England cheering for them should they wind up playing the Falcons in a blah Super Bowl.  (For my money, Pats-Packers would be the best option).  But on the chance the Steelers string together just enough scoring drives to pull off the upset against a Pats team that just hasn't been tested much at all this season, I'm taking my chances.  Steelers 27, Patriots 24

Playoff Picks: 2017 Divisional Round

***Blogger's Note: Apparently this is my 300th post, and Lady Blitz has had over 20,000 hits!  Some of those aren't even spam.  Thanks for your readership!***

Four divisional games give us four rematches from the regular season that could look wildly different this time around... Except for Texans vs. Patriots.  Let's be real, I could drop a passage from War and Peace in the middle of that analysis and no one would be the wiser.  But after last weekend's slate of blow-out snoozers, I shouldn't complain - there are some dang good games here to keep you from ever going outside.  Let's make some picks!

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The Run-Down: It's time for the season's last bird fight between two of the more exciting teams left standing.  When the Seahawks and Falcons last faced off in October, we got a down-to-the-wire shootout that showed the promise of Atlanta's offense and Seattle's knack for getting all the right bounces.  Now they'll fight to the death to become the trendy Super Bowl pick when the dust settles.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The Seahawks will need more than a swallowed whistle to slow down the Falcons this time around, especially without Earl Thomas there to patrol that gaggle of speedy Atlanta receivers in the middle of the field. Given how this defense has played in recent weeks against better offensive opponents like the Cardinals and Packers, I'm not confident they'll be able to win this one primarily on that side of the ball like we're used to.  But they can help the cause by collapsing the pocket on Matt Ryan.  When these teams last played, Seattle managed to sack Ryan four times, so if they get another big game from Chris Avril or Michael Bennett, they might be able to mask some of their sudden vulnerabilities in the secondary.  Their other possible out is for Kam Chancellor to rekindle some of that Super Bowl XLVIII magic by knocking the stuffing out of any receiver who dares catch the ball in the middle of the field.  It's brutal, but it's effective in slowing down offenses with a lot of weapons like Atlanta has and taking away a few pages of their playbook.  But looking at the Falcons' losses this season, the more important aspect of this game for the Seahawks is their offense.  Unless the Legion of Boom finds a little more mojo, Seattle's going to have to put a steady stream of touchdowns on the board to have a chance in the fourth quarter.  So the question is, do the Seahawks go slow and steady to try to keep Ryan off the field or do they go for the big plays that Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin & co. can dial up to swing momentum in an instant?  Personally, I like the blueprint the Seahawks put together last week against a similarly spotty Lions defense - give your running game with Thomas Rawls a chance so that you can wear down the Falcons front and then open up your play action toolkit.  And it still feels like we haven't seen the best of Wilson's read options yet this season - allegedly this is as healthy as he's been all year, and there's no bigger game than this one to try to attack Atlanta from all sides and put Matt Ryan in a situation where he feels he has to convert every drive into a touchdown.

How the Falcons Can Win: Although the odds have certainly tipped the Falcons' way since these teams last played, they should know better than to take the Seahawks lightly.  So I expect Kyle Shanahan to draw up a smart mix of short- to mid-yardage plays around the edges of the line of scrimmage to stretch that defensive line out and then take some well-timed shots downfield when the opportunity arises.  Atlanta isn't likely to get the same production out of that run game that they've enjoyed most of this season, so using Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the screen game is probably the best way to spread the ball around and maintain a good balance of play-calling.  They might also be on chipping duty in the backfield if the Seahawks' line has early success pressuring Ryan.  On defense, the Falcons first priority should be forcing Seattle into a one-dimensional pocket passing game.  Vic Beasley has come alive for Atlanta's pass rush and should have some juicy mismatches against the Seahawks' cheap, often bad offensive line to keep Russell Wilson in check and also keep Thomas Rawls from building momentum on the ground the way he did last week.  The more Wilson has to drop back and survey his options, the less damage Seattle can do through the many reads and play action calls they lean on to keep defenses off balance. Atlanta needs only look back at how Wilson fared against Green Bay in that nasty five-pick performance a few weeks ago to see how Seattle's offense rolls when they can't diversify their attack.

Prediction: There's always a chance that Playoff Matt Ryan rears his thin-lipped head after another strong regular season, but I have to think the presumptive MVP is going to be just fine in this one. I say Seattle calls it a season and gets back to figuring out how to keep Earl Thomas from filing those retirement papers Falcons 31, Seahawks 24

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-15.5)

The Run-Down: Here are the last five head-to-head results for the Patriots vs. the Texans: 27 - 0; 27 - 6; 34 - 31; 41 - 28; 42 - 14.  Not great, Bob!

How the Texans Can Win: Houston has a spectacular shot at winning this one... if a meteoroid hits the Patriots sideline right after the coin toss.  Maybe Jadeveon Clowney can make things interesting for a quarter or two a la Von Miller and Demarcus Ware last postseason with a few Tom Brady knockdowns and tackles for a loss, but the Texans are going to need just about everything to go their way on defense and special teams when it comes to turnovers and field position to have a prayer.  On offense, there's that Brock Osweiler guy...  At the Olmütz review he was more majestic; here he was more cheerful and energetic. He was slightly flushed after galloping two miles and, reining in his horse, gave a sigh of relief and looked around at the faces of his suite, as young, as animated as his own. Czartoryski and Novosiltsev, and Prince Volkonsky and Stroganov, and the others, all richly clad, cheerful young men on splendid, pampered, fresh, only slightly sweaty horses, talking and smiling, stopped behind the sovereign. The emperor Franz, a ruddy, long-faced young man, sat extremely straight on his handsome black stallion and looked around him with a preoccupied, unhurried air... Anyway, unless Osweiler happens to remember that he should throw the ball to DeAndre Hopkins deep downfield whenever the opportunity arises, this is going to be a very difficult out for Houston.

How the Patriots Can Win: Per The Onion, the Patriots should not allow this football game against the Texans to become a distraction.  Let #boatghazi be a lesson to us all - actually, let's not.  Okay, back to a half-hearted analysis.  New England doesn't have to execute a flawless performance in this one, but the Pats have to be careful about any big mistakes that could keep the big-time underdog Texans in it long enough to have a chance and rattle the home crowd's confidence.  Anyone who saw those Clowney highlights against the very stout line of the Oakland Raiders in the wild card now knows what kind of black hole he can create in an offensive game plan if given the chance.  So I'd expect Tom Brady to work those short and quick passing routes that have gotten him to many an AFC Championship over the years.  If Houston's front seven has any success getting into the backfield early, the Pats could lean on their no-huddle prowess to take away substitutions and zap the speed of the Texans' better pass rushers.  An argument against New England for another week is that they really haven't faced any good offenses/QBs so far this season, and if Brock Osweiler tries his hand at a few more aggressive throws like he did last week, who knows how the Pats might respond.  Ultimately, it's hard to see a situation where Houston's offense will be able to do enough on a consistent basis to outmaneuver one of the best-coached units in the league.

Prediction: The toughest question here seems to be if the Patriots cover.  And in the words of Ryan Lochte, I said "jeah!"  Patriots 37, Texans 13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)

The Run-Down: Lots of mystery and x-factors swirl around this rematch.  The Steelers more than handled the Chiefs last time these teams played, but with a change in home field, Ben Roethlisberger hobbled and Kansas City getting extra rest, expect this one to be a lot closer.

How the Steelers Can Win: On offense, the Steelers' chances of moving on may well live or die on the legs of Le'Veon Bell, and given how Bell has played over the past six weeks, that's a very shiny reason to be optimistic for Pittsburgh fans.  There's a lot to love about the Chiefs defense this year, but they've been uncharacteristically bad against the run - in fact, they're in the bottom quartile for rush yards allowed this season.  I'd expect the Steelers to take a page from Bell and be very patient and persistent with their run game.  Surely Kansas City will game plan for this and try to force Roethlisberger to throw, which could slow Bell & co. down in the early going.  But with the icy weather conditions and Bell's MVP-worthy stretch, Pittsbrugh should keep toting the rock, especially if they need to wear down a well-rested Justin Houston on pass rushing duties.  On defense, the Steelers' prime target should be first-time All Pro Travis Kelce.  He's a menace in picking up big yards in the middle of the field and on the edge for Alex Smith, and he's also an incredible run blocker for the screens and jet sweeps the Chiefs like to run to open up the field.  I think you could make a strong case for double-teaming Kelce on nearly every snap with the Steelers' more versatile linebacks like Lawrence Timmons and Bud Dupree to force Kansas City into a more simplistic, short-gain playbook.  And usually I don't go into special teams here, but it goes without saying that Pittsburgh should kick those punts out of bounds every time at the risk of losing a few yards of field position.  You just don't want any chance of Tyreek Hill slipping tackles on what could be a very sloppy field for extra scores.

How the Chiefs Can Win: As impressive at the Chiefs' journey to the #2 seed has been, I'm sure they would like to forget the 43-point thrashing they suffered at the hands of the Steelers earlier this season.  The potentially good news is that Ben Roethlisberger may not be as mobile or accurate with the ankle injury he suffered last week, taking away some of the Steelers' balance in the passing game.  The bad news is that Le'Veon Bell is playing out of his mind right now, and Kansas City has really struggled to stop the run - both sides are averaging 4.5+ yards per carry, which benefits the Steelers greatly here.  Any way the Chiefs choose, they'll risk leaving some of Pittsburgh's offensive weapons more open than they'd like, so I'd put some extra bodies near the line of scrimmage to keep Bell in check.  Roethlisberger has been far less consistent on the road this season, and Marcus Peters is one of the few cornerbacks who can give Antonio Brown some problems, so this may be the best of two undesirable options.  As I alluded to before, the potential game-changer for the Chiefs here is Justin Houston, who's been sidelined with injury for several weeks.  KC is just that much more potent with Houston on the field and getting into the pocket - three of the Chiefs' most impressive wins (at Denver, at Atlanta, vs. Oakland) heavily featured their top lineman crashing the line of scrimmage, and that could force some bad picks from Big Ben and/or wear down the Steelers' offensive line to get to Bell.  On offense, the Chiefs don't have a bevy of incredible skill players like Pittsburgh, but they've got Kelce and Hill, who give them a lot of options to mix up the play-calling and work the edges of the field to tire out the Steelers' defensive front.  Pittsburgh's biggest defensive vulnerability is its very young (three-rookie) secondary, so the more Chiefs can take advantage with some new wrinkles that get big yards on early downs with those explosive playmakers, the more likely they are to keep pace with whatever points Pittsburgh puts up.

Prediction: This to me is the toughest game to pick of the weekend - that one-point spread says, "So say we all."  On the one hand, it's entirely plausible to believe Le'Veon Bell can single-handedly win this game on his talent and the defensive matchup.  On the other hand, the Steelers haven't played a serviceable opposing offense in a long time and we don't really know how bad things are for Big Ben or how good things are for Justin Houston with their respective injuries.  So I'm going with my gut and my heart instead of my head and saying Chiefs.  Chiefs 27, Steelers 24

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-5)

The Run-Down: And now for the kind of ratings boom Fox executives will buy another summer home after - and two of the most exciting offenses in the league this year for the rest of us to enjoy.  The big question here is, which style of offensive fireworks will prevail and/or which defense will hang on by the skin of its teeth to advance to the NFC Championship?

How the Packers Can Win: A struggle I have on this blog at times is how to make things more interesting when the obvious is right in front of us.  It's probably why so many daily sports radio shows are plain awful.  So let's just say "Aaron Rodgers" and leave it at that for this offense.  Of course, he's a better quarterback when Jordy Nelson's on the field, but he should have success working the middle of the field with Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers to compensate for it - the Cowboys haven't been great against tight ends this year.  Dallas has been really good against the run this season though, so I can't see the Packers trying that hard to make it a factor in this one.  See?  "Aaron Rodgers."  But looking back over Green Bay's many heart-breaking playoff losses these past five years, they've got to do things differently on defense here not to unravel all of No. 12's work.  Like the Chiefs with Le'Veon Bell above, the Packers probably won't be able to stop Ezekiel Elliott in his tracks, but they've got to shoot some gaps between those mighty Dallas linemen with their linebackers to limit his yards per carry and force the Cowboys into third-and-longs.  They should consider bringing down their safeties and corners when an Elliott run is likely to contain him on the edges - that was a big part of the Giants' game plan against Dallas a few weeks back when they held them to just 7 points.  Green Bay can live with rookie Dak Prescott having a few open looks if it means he'll have to put up 40+ pass attempts and shoulder this team's offense mostly on his own.

How the Cowboys Can Win: Let's get the obvious out of the way on this one too and say that the Cowboys would love nothing more than for Elliott to be able to rattle off five yards per carry from start to finish and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline for long stretches of this game.  But I honestly think they'd be better pressed to work play action and go with a lot of quick, high-percentage passes early to keep the Packers defense on its toes and forced to spread out.  Whereas most modern NFL offenses struggle to run the ball enough to stay balanced (like, cough, Green Bay), Dallas might want to get a bit more intentional about beefing up its passing calls and some designed runs for Prescott here.  Things should open up eventually for Elliott, and he can also be very useful in the screen game - you just don't want that rookie QB in his first postseason start to overthink it too much if this team's old standby plays aren't working.  On defense, the Cowboys have their work cut out to say the least.  The Giants defense did just about everything right against Green Bay in the first half last weekend, and yet Rodgers was still able to work miracles by extending his time in the pocket with his legs and pulling off another big-armed Hail Mary to kill any confidence New York might have had.  Dallas hasn't been great against the pass this season, but they've got some hope with Nelson's injury and with their emerging playmakers on the defensive line.  David Irving has become a big name in the past month for good reason - he managed three sacks and a forced fumble in the Cowboys' last three games, and playing just 19 snaps against the Packers in October, he managed three sacks, three forced fumbles and a pass deflection.  That means Irving will probably be double-teamed here, so other linemen will have to take advantage any time they can get in Rodgers' face and force him back into the errant throws and second guessing he struggled with in the middle of the year.  Dallas probably needs a big turnover or two to overcome Rodgers' insane hot streak and their own flaws against the pass, and it all starts with getting pressure on that future Hall of Famer.

Prediction: If there's reason to hesitate against the #1 seed, we have no idea how Dak Prescott will handle that big playoff spotlight in his first year in the NFL.  When push comes to shove though, I don't like the Packers' chances of stalling the Cowboys offense enough or being able to run the ball to protect the lead if they get it.  This should be a close one though.  Cowboys 28, Packers 25

Playoff Picks: 2017 Wild Card Round

Extra football commences this weekend with a pretty so-so slate of games.  Sure, we've got three rematches from the regular season, but they'll feature the likes of Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore and Connor Cook, the first quarterback in NFL history to make his rookie starting debut in the playoffs.  So with one exception, this feels like a pretty straightforward cake walk for a lot of good teams who should move on and a merciful exit for the teams that don't quite feel like they should be here.  Let's get to it!

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-4)

The Run-Down: It's the quarterback showdown you never asked for in this afternoon stinker!  But if you're looking for a silver lining, both of these defenses know that their teams' fate rests on their shoulders, so there's still plenty of highlight-reel potential for Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney and friends in this one.

How the Raiders Can Win: Let's get right to the Raiders' Achilles Heel in this one-- NFL quarterback noob Connor Cook. They will have to get Cook involved early with some high-percentage, low-risk passing if they want to keep Houston's rock-solid defense from selling out at the line of scrimmage and sending a few extra bodies toward the pocket.  If Oakland has a jujitsu-style prospect (i.e., a chance to use its weakness as a strength), it's that the Texans have virtually no film on Cook, so they can try out a few wrinkles that Houston may not be expecting and try to take advantage of what's likely to be lots of man-to-man coverage in the secondary.  I say dink and dunk with lots of bubble screens to replace the running game early and see what happens - there really isn't a lot to lose with Derek Carr out of the picture.  The Radiers' defensive outlook is far better though.  They'll be facing off against the much-maligned Brock Osweiler whose own homecrowd cheered his benching just a couple weeks ago.  Osweiler ranks 29th of 30 qualified players in passer rating this season and has managed a league-worst 5.8 yards per attempt.  For all his lack of production, he's also an interception machine, which bodes well for an Oakland secondary which should have its top safety Karl Joseph back.  The bottom line is the Raiders definitely have a shot here if they can keep Osweiler and his receivers boxed into short, low-yardage passing situations to force a bunch of three and outs and turn it into better field position.  And if Khalil Mack can dictate terms at the line of scrimmage, it might just pay off with a strip sack or bad interception that puts the needy Raiders offense in truly great field position for a key score.

How the Texans Can Win: Mirroring the Raiders, the Texans' upside definitely lies on the defensive side of the ball.  They'll have homefield advantage and the chance to shellshock a true rookie passer with the ascendant Jadeveon Clowney lurking around the pocket.  Although it might feel like a cakewalk, it's hugely important for the Texans to get into Connor Cook's head early.  No doubt the Raiders will try to keep things simple to build Cook's confidence, so Houston will want to disguise some blitzes and maybe try a few pre-snap alignments that they haven't shown this season to keep the rookie guessing.  And I'd line up Clowney on the blind side whenever possible - the Raiders will be without left tackle Donald Penn today, which is a huge blow for a team that thrived on its excellent offensive line all season.  If Oakland struggles at all to protect their quarterback early, this one is over.  On offense, I'd expect the Texans to play the field position game much like their opponents - this could definitely be one of those 10 - 13 kind of scores if both teams follow their game plans well.  Although they give up some yards, the Raiders defense is no slouch when it comes to generating turnovers, and Houston should avoid these at all costs, even if it means keeping a big play or two on the shelf.  It'd help if they could get some production out of Lamar Miller to take pressure off of Osweiler, but frankly, this offense is just as good or bad when they've won as when they've lost - avoiding negative plays is about as good as can be expected, I think.

Prediction: I could absolutely see this game going either way because I think it will come down to which defense ends up making the biggest clutch play in the final minutes.  That doesn't mean you should watch what will surely be a dud when you could be doing just about anything else like filing your taxes or shoveling your driveway.  So I'm going to go with the home team that got a huge leg up with Derek Carr and Donald Penn sidelined for the Raiders. Texans 13, Raiders 9

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

The Run-Down: In what might be the most unpredictable game of the weekend, the cripple-fingered Matt Stafford will face off against the Earl Thomas-less Seahawks in one of the toughest road environments in the NFL.  On the other side of the ball, both teams have become inconsistent mystery boxes that might make huge game-clinching plays or roll over and die before halftime.

How the Lions Can Win: It still feels weird to say that an opposing offense is best suited by slinging the ball against the Seahawks, but that's where we find ourselves with this banged-up version of the Legion of Boom.  Detroit's running game is almost non-existent, and they shouldn't expect to get much efficiency out of these calls on first down or other long-yardage situations with Michael Bennett and Bobby Wagner on the other side of the line.  So hopefully Matt Stafford's starting to get used to his bionic hand because the Lions are going to have to exploit those holes in the middle Seattle's secondary in order to have any chance at amassing first downs and putting themselves in manageable second- and third-down situations.  If there's a reason for optimism, Detroit's receivers are big and speedy, and they'll need to use every bit of those assets to get open should Stafford's accuracy continue to suffer.  In particular, you know former 'Hawk Golden Tate will be itching to have a big game and he probably still has a good handle on any of the LOB's [slight] weaknesses and bad habits.  The other good news is that the Lions should have a little more breathing room on the other side of the ball.  It's no secret that Seattle's offensive line has struggled far more than usual this season, which means the Lions can focus a lot of attention on pressuring Russell Wilson in the pocket.  You may recall the last time these teams met in that controversial batted ball game that Detroit racked up six sacks and recovered three fumbles on the strength of their pass rush.  The Seahawks just haven't been as resilient this year when they've let opposing linemen get to Wilson early, so perhaps Ziggy Ansah will finally get the kind of mustard on No. 3 he's been missing to a strange degree this season.  If this defense performs to its better clutch-play generating self, the Lions offense doesn't have to carry the day in this tough Seattle environment.

How the Seahawks Can Win: Per that last bit above, the Seahawks' top priority should be giving Russell Wilson a clean pocket to work with and some outlets to run wild around the edges to open up other elements of the offense.  Detroit doesn't exactly have the stingiest of defenses, but they've got some muscle at the line of scrimmage in Ansah and Haloti Ngata as well as a great cornerback in Darius Slay who can make big plays and shut down a top receiver like Doug Baldwin.  So Seattle would do best to go back to the days of more creative play-calling that can stretch the field and throw some misdirection Detroit's way.  The more Wilson can spread the ball around to guys like Tyler Lockett and Jermaine Kearse and pick up extra yards with his feet, the more this game will feel like a repeat of last week's dissection at the hands of Aaron Rodgers for the Lions defense.  On the other side of the ball, the biggest weakness Seattle has shown since losing Earl Thomas has been giving up big plays to good offenses - they were absolutely embarrassed in Green Bay in Week 14 and then fell to the Cardinals on a last-minute field goal drive in Week 16.  Against a receiver set that includes Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, the Seahawks need to keep these deep threats in front of them and maybe even mix up some of their coverages since they don't have as much range to play man-to-man without their All Pro safety.  Although they're likely to catch some breaks with Stafford's injury, Seattle doesn't have as much room for error in the secondary as they have in years past, especially if their offense struggles to put up points of its own.

Prediction: I'm not sure this is the slam dunk for Seattle that so many are predicting, but between the raucous Seattle homefield advantage and the Lions' recent 3-game slide rooted in Matt Stafford's struggles, I think it will be enough for the Seahawks to live another week and figure out what in the heck they're going to do against a much better Falcons team in the next round.  Seahawks 20, Lions 14

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-11)

The Run-Down: The last time these two teams played, the Steelers offense looked fallible and the Dolphins sparked a remarkable 9 - 2 run on the legs of some guy named Jay Ajayi.  But the arena and quarterback outlooks have changed to give this one a more David-and-Goliath kind of look.

How the Dolphins Can Win: When Miami pulled off that stunning upset in October, a lot could be summed up by how they played the running game on both sides of the ball.  Ajayi of course was the hero of the day, shredding Pittsburgh's defense for 204 yards and two touchdowns, but the Dolphins defense also held Le'Veon Bell to just 53 yards - half of his per-game average this season.  Given a cold and snowy weather outlook in Pittsburgh this weekend, that might just bode well for Miami if they can stick to the same essentials at the line of scrimmage.  They'll need Ajayi to have another big, bruising game to wear down Pittsburgh's defense and keep the big three from getting into a rhythm on the other side of the ball.  And if conditions clear up for a few series, the Dolphins should do their best to keep the Steelers honest with perfectly serviceable backup QB Matt Moore spreading the ball around to the likes of Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, who can score quickly to keep pace.  Unfortunately for Miami, it's a pick-your-poison dilemma on defense.  If they crowd the line of scrimmage and put an extra linebacker on Le'Veon Bell duty, he can still do damage in the screen game and is hugely patient at waiting for the right running lane to open.  Plus, they'll almost certainly need to put extra bodies on the unguardable Antonio Brown to keep the Steelers from beating them on big plays.  Their best bet may be to go after Ben Roethlisberger, who's been inconsistent this season, especially when he gets rattled in the pocket.  In any case, the best defense may be a good offense here.

How the Steelers Can Win: My gut says we are going to get the Le'Veon Bell show tomorrow afternoon, and it'll be a lot of fun.  Despite the Dolphins' relative success slowing Bell down last time these teams met, they've given up over 140 yards on the ground per game this season.  And No. 26 has aged like fine wine as the year has gone on through the air and on the ground, averaging over 150 all-purpose yards over the final six weeks of the regular season.  Pittsburgh's offense at home is a very tough matchup for just about anyone, and they probably won't feel daunted by the snow when it comes to passing the ball deep down field.  So if there is a potential concern for the Steelers, I'd say it's how this defense will hold up against that fearsome Miami running game.  Pittsburgh has been middle-of-the-road by most measures on defense this season, but they could struggle against the physical offensive line play of the Dolphins and an aggressive downfield rusher like Ajayi as they did earlier this season.  At the risk of giving up a few big passing plays, they may do best to load up the box and dare Moore to put up yards through the air in those blustery Heinz Field conditions.

Prediction: As impressive and surprising as Miami's road to the playoffs has been this season, I just can't see how they'll be able to slow down Pittsburgh's offensive juggernaut in these conditions.  Plus, their earlier upset against the Steelers was their only victory against a team with a winning record all season - it'll be a whole lot tougher to repeat here.  Steelers 30, Dolphins 14

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-6)

The Run-Down: The Packers might be surging at the right time, but they'll be hosting the only team in the NFL that has ever beaten them at Lambeau Field multiple times in the playoffs.  If you only watch one game this weekend, circle the calendar for this potentially fantastic matchup between that resurgent Green Bay offense and New York's shutdown secondary.

How the Giants Can Win: The hopes and dreams of the New York faithful rest heavily on that defense as it did when the Giants pulled off an incredible underdog victory against the 15 - 1 Packers back in 2012.  As good as Aaron Rodgers has been this season and many more before, his Achilles Heel has always been against defenses that can generate consistent pressure in the pocket and bat down those hot reads in the slot he loves.  The more frustration and three-and-outs the Giants can build up early, the more likely the Packers offense will falter down the stretch if past trends continue.  Lest we forget that guys like Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins in New York's secondary can handle their better offensive opponents one-on-one and force opposing quarterbacks into their third, fourth and fifth receiving options.  Long story short, the Giants defense certainly has the chops to keep this one interesting and within reach.  But the way I see it, New York only wins this one if they can shake things up on offense.  In fact, when these teams last met in Week 5, Green Bay held them to their lowest yardage total of the season by shutting down their run game and playing a very straightforward style of coverage to match the Giants' uninspired player rotations.  Ben McAdoo's offense has rightly been criticized for its simplistic play-calling and lack of variation all season long, and they've simply got to spread the field and throw in some new lineups to create mismatches.  If there are two promising developments that could help, 1) rookie RB Paul Perkins has emerged as an efficient ground option who can break off 10 - 15 yard runs at times to keep Green Bay's defense on its toes; and 2) the Packers' secondary is exceptionally thin, especially with Quintin Rollins out for Sunday.  The Giants have got to be aggressive in taking shots downfield to keep pace with the Packers offense and bring back bad memories for this defense from their awful 1 - 5 stretch in the middle of the season.

How the Packers Can Win: Although the Packers have the upper hand on offense and homefield advantage in this one, I can't imagine they're taking it too lightly given how good the Giants defense has been this season.  It may be best just to sacrifice Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams to the New York secondary gods and try to shred them over the middle of the field with the likes of Jared Cook and Geronmio Allison instead.  Green Bay may also need to be more patient with its run game here to open things up in play action, pad the line of scrimmage against New York's pass rush and avoid any costly turnovers that would give the struggling Giants offense a leg up.  Ultimately, slow and steady may be worth while even if it's not how Rodgers like to operate when he's playing hot - it's when he tries to put too much on his own shoulders in moments of frustration that this team has been done in before.  Assuming the Packers offense and Giants defense plays to something like a draw with moderate points scored, the more intriguing matchup could be when Green Bay's defense is on the field.  Two years removed from the Green Bay sideline, Giants head coach Ben McAdoo is still mighty familiar with this defense's strengths and weaknesses, and if he's going to respond appropriately to criticisms about that ho-hum offense, he's going to design a few tricks to exploit the Packers' hobbled secondary and throw some confusion into the game plan.  If I were in Dom Capers' shoes, I'd double up on Odell Beckham on every snap and also send some help toward the Giants' solid #2 receiver Sterling Shepard.  Looking back at the Packers' mid-season defensive slump, they could find themselves in a precarious situation tomorrow if they fail to take away New York's biggest play-making threats with simple, conservative coverage.

Prediction: It's no fun picking all the favorites, so I'm going to roll the dice on this one and say the playoff Giants have as good a shot as any at slowing down the vaunted Packers again.  And if I'm wrong, you Green Bay fans can thank me for putting the 2016-17 Lady Blitz stink on poor Big Blue as I've done to many others this season.  Giants 21, Packers 20