NFL Week 12 Picks

Happy Turkey Day, dear readers!  I'm serving up some picks you can politely scroll through on the couch instead of talking to your family about politics today - you're welcome!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5) - This big-time divisional bout constitutes our Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  As much as I'd like the Chiefs to succeed here, I think it'll be hard against this Broncos defense at full strength at Mile High.  KC has struggled to make an impact on offense against the better competition in the league, and that's a very tall task in this environment.  Stranger things have happened, especially if Trevor Siemian gets the yips while Paxton Lynch breathes down his neck, but I'm not overthinking this one.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5) - Really not sure what to think about our Thanksgiving appetizer here.  The Vikings were good then bad then maybe good again with two huge scoring plays and a bunch of quarterback hits last week.  The Lions seem a little too lucky with all of these fourth quarter comebacks, including their previous game with Minnesota.  You just get the sense that even if one of these teams keeps the division title out of Green Bay's hands, they'll be an easy wild card out for someone else in the NFC come January.  So I guess I think the Vikings should have won last time around having outplayed the Lions for 97% of that game - maybe the pendulum will swing their way this week.

Washington Redskinks at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - Ezekiel Elliott vs. "Fat Rob" Kelley sounds like a winner to me - rest assured these two defensive lines will sleep very well after this one's over.  Although I think the Cowboys are very, very good on the strength of their uber-dominant, ball control offense, I'm not sure they can run the table to the Super Bowl just yet.  The Redskinks are surging at the right time with a solid combination of big bombs downfield and a bruising run game that could exploit that bend-don't-break Dallas defense.  Nevertheless, I'm willing to risk being wrong for all the times picking the Cowboys has been right this year.

 

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-3.5) - Even without Luke Kuechly in tow, no one particularly likes to face the Panthers when they've got their backs to the wall, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them steal a win here in Oakland.  Still, Kuechly being out means the Raiders will have more options in the run and screen game to spread out this defense, and they don't exactly need any help for this offense to succeed.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) - I'm not totally ready to bury the Packers just yet given that their divisional brethren haven't totally broken away at this point in the season.  But this looks like it will continue to be an ugly stretch for Green Bay with a totally depleted secondary and linebacker corps and an offensive line that should have some problems with that aggressive Philly front.  Add to the mix that the Packers are 1 - 4 on the road this year while the Eagles are undefeated at home, and well, you get the idea.  

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Indianapolis Colts - Well, this sure could have been a much more intriguing game had Andrew Luck been able to play, but you shouldn't have too much #FOMO if you miss the Ben Roethlisberger-Scott Tolzien prime time showdown tonight.  If Indy has reason to hope, Roethlisberger has been downright awful on the road this season, so the Colts might benefit from a couple extra stalled drives.  Thing of it is, Indy is also really bad at run defense, and Le'Veon Bell won't mind taking advantage of that a la his performance in Cleveland last weekend.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4) - Ugh, the Falcons are going to win the NFC South, aren't they?  If the Honey Badger can play, I'd give the Cardinals a little more of a chance - they've been able to generate turnovers and get to Matt Ryan in many of their more recent meetings.  Yet with Atlanta coming off the bye at home in an early east coast bout, I'm guessing Arizona will have another flat-footed start if earlier losses to the Bills, Panthers and Vikings are any indicator.

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Houston Texans - I don't particularly care one way or other about the Texans, but boy did they get abused by some awful officiating on Monday night.  That might be just the chip on the shoulder needed to go toe-to-toe with a very good, well-balanced Chargers team this week.  But I really like how San Diego's defense is playing these days, and I don't think they'll give Brock Osweiler the kind of breathing room he desperately needs to sustain scoring drives.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - We know it's quite likely the Seahawks will win this one as they set their sights on Dallas & co. in January.  So here's a fun bit of reading if you're interested - 40 years ago, the Seahawks and Buccaneers combined for the most penalties ever in an NFL game, sensually entitled the Expansion Bowl.  #themoreyouknow

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tennessee Titans (-5) at Chicago Bears - I remember the days when picking against the Titans was automatic - it's pretty much how I feel about the Bears right now.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) - If there's one thing the Bills do very well, it's beating up bad AFC teams.  They shouldn't have much trouble adding to that resume this weekend.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) - It's a bad time for the Bengals to lose Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green as they pay a visit to one of the best defenses in the league.  Yowza.

New York Giants (-7) at Cleveland Browns - Serious question: if the 1972 Dolphins get to pop the champagne every time they preserve the NFL's sole undefeated season, what do you think the 2008 Lions have prepared if the Browns go 0 - 16?  Maybe a tall glass of schadenfreude or a joint watch party for the next Super Bowl at Johnny Manziels house? Feel free to offer some zingers in the comments if you're bored and said family starts talking about immigration policy and whatnot.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-7) - Fun fact: even though the Rams have gone 7 - 9 or worse each of the past five seasons, the Saints haven't beaten them since December 2010.  We can empathize with the Seahawks on this weird, unsettling kryptonite, and I don't expect Sunday's matchup to be easy.  New Orleans has a knack for making rookie QBs look like Tom Brady - see Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Robert Griffin III.  Without much film on Jared Goff, they could whiff a few times here.  BUT I really do like what this New Orleans defense has been doing with Delvin Breaux and Sheldon Rankins back in the fold.  It should be enough to beat the freakin' Rams... it should have always been enough.

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-8) - It's time for this week's Jay Ajayi 200 yards watch!  

New England Patriots (-8) at New York Jets - Maybe the bye week did the Jets some good, meaning they'll only lose this one by two scores.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 12, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Redskinks +7 over Cowboys
• Seahawks -5.5 over Buccaneers
• Rams +7 over Saints

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 90 - 70 - 2
Against the Spread: 19 - 14

NFL Week 11 Picks

Before we get started on irrelevant football things, I hope you'll take a couple minutes to appreciate the magnificence that was Sharon Jones.  She passed away on Friday after a long battle with pancreatic cancer, and she was hands down one of the best singers and on-stage performers I have ever seen right up to the end.  If you're thinking about something good to do this holiday season, consider donating to the Lustgarten Foundation for pancreatic cancer. 

 

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) - I'm not sure this or any other game on the slate this weekend deserves a Game of the Week nod, so let's just be grateful that last weekend was easily the best week we've had in a lackluster NFL season.  Having said that, this could still be a great defensive chess match with playoff implications, so I'm putting it on the top shelf.  "Seahawks at home" isn't as sure of a bet as it used to be, but I don't see the Eagles offense having the chops to eke out a win here with a rookie quarterback on a tough business trip.  Unless Philly's D/ST has a performance for the ages (which is possible), I like Seattle.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskinks (-3) - Ok, now I'm officially freaked out by whether or not the Packers can pull off their usual late-season resurgence and, gulp, if Aaron Rodgers has permanently lost his other-worldly quarterback mojo.  To be fair, you can't really pin this on Rodgers when Green Bay's defense has given up an average 37 points per game over the last three weeks.  But this feels like a turn the corner or bust kind of game for the Packers.  I'm going on a hunch here that the Redskinks still struggle mightily against the better offenses in the league and that the Packers might get Clay Matthews back and will certainly be playing in desperation mode when they take the field on Sunday night.  On the bright side for Packers fans, they might finally get rid of Dom Capers if things go south quickly in Washington this week though.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - If there's a reason to believe this game could be closer than you think, the Ravens are the top run defense in the league and they'll need to execute a perfect ground game if they hope to keep pace with the uber-productive and efficient Cowboys offense.  Even if they slow Ezekiel Elliott down though, they'll have to be a lot more consistent on offense than we've seen this season (last week's cakewalk against the Browns excluded).  And when you look at Baltimore's track record of wins and losses this season, they haven't played an offense anywhere close to this caliber and come out clean on the other side.  So I'm going to put a little too much faith in Dallas at home this week.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) - Ah, two AFC South teams that we might be a little overconfident in since they've both trounced the Packers in recent weeks.  I really thought the Titans had the upper hand when these teams met earlier this season given how they could exploit the Colts' bad run defense and offensive line, but it was not meant to be as it hasn't been yet in Andrew Luck's pro career.  I reckon the Titans will have to wait until next season to beat this team coming off a bye at home.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - This feels like an anything goes kind of game between two teams making a last gasp effort to stay in playoff contention.  I am changing my original pick from the Bengals to the Bills, so it's certain to come back to haunt me.  But I just don't like Cincy's win-loss resume this season.  They've only beaten the Jets, Browns and pre-Ajayi-breakout Dolphins this season, and Buffalo's well-rested run game might just trample right over them in the Jungle this weekend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) - How 'bout those cardiac Chiefs?  They've had a real knack for fourth-quarter comebacks this year, and their Marcus Peters-led quest for all of the takeaways will probably spell bad news for Jameis Winston, a most generously turnover-prone quarterback. 

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2) - Man, the Vikings are doing quite an impression of the 2015 Falcons these days, eh?  There isn't any other way to see Minnesota's offense but as exposed at this point - they can't run the ball or keep Sam Bradford upright for any reasonable stretch of downs, and it's obviously starting to wear down this defense.  The Cardinals are still only as good as Carson Palmer in many ways, and he could certainly give this game away if the early-season version rears his head.  But I think Arizona has some wiggle room for a mistake or two as long as that fearsome pass rush keeps the Vikings out of scoring position.

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders (-6) - For all of the NFL's expansion gimmicks, I'm actually kind of looking forward to this Mexico City matchup.  Of course, playing in a smog-filled bowl below sea level might not give us peak performance, but maybe the fùtbol crowd will make this a bit livelier than your typical football crowd.  The Raiders look to be on a rock-solid road to the playoffs at this point while the Texans have mostly been frauds outside of the weak-sauce AFC South, so I see Oakland getting one step closer to clinching that postseason slot south of the border.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) - Let the social media record show that, sadly, I felt like the Saints would blow it and they sure enough did with continually awful special teams play and the kind of clock management only Andy Reid would be proud of.  Le sigh, as death ticks off another season on Drew Brees' waning peak years. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) at Cleveland Browns - That was a heartbreaking loss for the Steelers last week while the Browns are probably numb to the feelings of heartbreak at this point with an 0 - 10 start to the season.  I'm not sold on this being a blowout for Pittsburgh given how much different Ben Roethlisberger has looked on the road this season and how the Steelers are notorious for playing down to their level of competition.  But after an 0 - 4 slide, they've got to come out guns a-blazin' this week to stay within reach of the AFC North title.  I'm expecting a lot of big plays downfield and a resurgent game for Antonio Brown.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5) - Look how excited Jim Caldwell is about the near-certainty of staying atop the NFC North this weekend!  The big question is how much the Lions will put into this game knowing that they've got a quick turnaround to play the Vikings on Thursday.  I think any little bit ought to do it against the endlessly flailing Jaguars.

Chicago Bears  at New York Giants (-7.5) - The Bears are real bad this year, y'all.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams - Jared Goff time is upon us!  The lack of film on this guy could put the Dolphins at risk on defense this week, but bear in mind that the Rams sat Goff as a third-string backup up until this point behind Case Keenum and Sean Mannion.  That's no bueno for a Miami pass rush really starting to find its groove.

New England Patriots (-12) at San Francisco 49ers - No Gronk, no problem.  LeGarrette Blount fantasy owners will be rejoicing this weekend in a game where no point spread seems too big.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 11, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Buccaneers +7.5 over Chiefs
• Browns +8 over Steelers
• Dolphins -2.5 over Rams

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 79 - 67 - 2
Against the Spread: 17 - 13

NFL Week 10 Picks

Who's ready to get back to some football, eh?  I know I am and also totally haven't been scavenging for cute baby animal pictures anywhere I can find them on the internet for several consecutive hours.  This week features a lot of games that really look like they could go either way to me, so I'm bringing back my coin flip feature.  Last time, the mighty coin went 8 - 4 while I went 9 - 3. Let's get to our Week 10 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5) - There's never a dull moment when these two teams get together in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The Seahawks are more reliant than ever on their defense to get the job done, and they'll have their work cut out against Tom Brady, who's somehow having his best season since 2007 at age 39.  Hopefully this game will give us the kind of entertaining chess match we've been craving in the prime time dead zone this season.  But at the end of the day, I think this worn out Legion of Boom will yield by the fourth quarter, and Pats DC Matt Patricia will have plenty of scheming up his sleeve to keep Seattle's struggling offense in check.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Seahawks (in which heads = home team)

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) - This here might be the hardest game left on the Cowboys' schedule, and they'll need to buckle their seatbelts because the Steelers are on the cusp of desperation mode after dropping to 4 - 4.  Ben Roethlisberger is a different kind of player at Heinz Field, so this won't be easy for Dallas, even if they've got a good offensive matchup on paper.  But he certainly didn't look 100% last week against the Ravens, so I'm guessing--really just guessing--that the Steelers will stall on a couple more drives than the Cowboys and that will be the difference in this one.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Cowboys

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans - Lawdy, not sure what to think about the Packers at this point.  Clearly they've suffered from a thin secondary and a thinner running back corps in these past couple of weeks, but there's also the fact that Aaron Rodgers continues to miss some wide-open slam-dunk throws that he used to make in his sleep.  Is it a fluke, the yips or a lingering injury?  I don't know, but I think Green Bay can get back on track here against a good-not-great Titans team now that the NFC North is wide open.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Packers

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskinks (-3) - Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  I was relatively stunned when the Vikings jumped out to a 5 - 0 start, and it was impossible not to compare them in some ways to last year's Broncos team.  But then they lost a few offensive linemen and their opponents remembered that's just Sam Bradford under center.  I don't think they're hopeless, but they've got a tough matchup this week against a Washington team that has a pretty healthy pass rush.  With Josh Norman shutting down Stefon Diggs, it's hard to see how Minnesota's offense will get points on the board enough times to win.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3) - Now we'll see if the Panthers' comeback is the real deal or not.  Their previous two wins came against an exhausted Cardinals team and the Rams who are, you know, the Rams.  This week, the Chiefs come to town, and they continue to look like a team well-balanced and deep enough to beat most mediocre teams in a myriad of ways.  My guess is that Carolina still has some big flaws to address that Kansas City will exploit, but I fully plan to be wrong on this one.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (PK) - This is a tough one to pick, and it might be a pretty good game if Carson Wentz can recapture some of his early-season mojo.  The Eagles are 3 - 0 at home this year and were dominant in all of those wins on defense and special teams.  So if there's any scenario on the Falcons' schedule that could ground this league-best offense, Lincoln Financial might just be it.  You know where my loyalties lie and what I hope will happen, but seeing how Atlanta dispatched the Broncos at Mile High with relative ease last month, I think they've got the chops to beat Philly on the road too.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Eagles

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-2.5) - Uh oh.  I'm getting to a dangerous level of optimism with the Saints.  If they follow the trends of the last four years or so, it won't last long.  But this offense has been purring all season long against good defenses and bad, scoring 30 points or more in five of their eight games this season, and Denver's defense still looks a bit banged up.  The wild card, as always, will be how the Saints defense handles that fitful Trevor Siemian-led offense.  There are enough talented receivers to keep New Orleans' secondary discombobulated, and Devontae Booker should have some room to run on the ground.  I'm just not sure it'll be enough if Drew Brees goes on another tear at home in this early game.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Saints

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4) - In this corner, we've got two resurgent running offenses hoping to eke their way into the playoffs with some big wins in recent weeks.  You gotta wonder what the mood will be like in San Diego this weekend after residents resoundingly (and I think rightfully) rejected the plan to finance a new stadium with public dollars.  A move to Los Angeles may now be imminent.  I reckon Philip Rivers will try to make the most of it.  I also reckon San Diego's stout run defense will give Jay Ajayi some trouble a la DeMarco Murray last week.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-2.5) - Oh my, these two teams are so confusing to me this year.  They've both mostly lost to good teams and beaten bad to mediocre ones.  Throw into the mix the fact that the Bengals are finally getting back to full strength after key injuries early in the year, and I really don't know what to expect here.  I'm going full coin flip on this pick.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Giants

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-9) - The Browns are kind of like that person in your fantasy team who hasn't updated her roster in three weeks to account for injury reserve and bye weeks.  God bless 'em.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Browns

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) - Jay Cutler riseth from the bench to ruin the Bears' chances of a high draft pick next year.  They shouldn't have much trouble keeping pace against a pretty bad Buccaneers defense, and their John Fox-crafted defense seems mighty underrated to me.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Buccaneers

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-1.5) - Hey, the Jets might be able to win this one!  COIN FLIP SAYS: Rams

Houston Texans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Man.  Same ole Jaguars, different year.  Maybe Jim Schwartz will be next up on the doomed coordinator-to-head-coach carousel in Jacksonville?  COIN FLIP SAYS: Texans

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-13.5) - If the Saints defense could generate four turnovers against the 49ers last week, just imagine what kind of cruel and unusual punishment the Cardinals will inflict this time around.  Bring some goggles for the bloodbath.  COIN FLIP SAYS: 49ers

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 10, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Seahawks +7.5 over Patriots
• Browns +9 over Ravens
• Texans -1.5 over Jaguars

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 72 - 59 - 2
Against the Spread: 15 - 12

NFL Week 9 Picks

You know what, I'm really, really starting to like the silver lining of my terrible picks for most of this season.  I and I alone successfully jinxed the Cubs out of a 1 - 3 deficit to their magnificent, spectacular and terribly stressful first World Series win in 108 years.  And it feels absolutely wonderful - just like this here Tweet:

. @Saints fans to @Cubs fans right now... pic.twitter.com/StsZCqDTQv

— Sean Orleans (@SeanOrleans) November 3, 2016

I owe my Cubs fandom to my great-grandfather, Honey Johnson, and my grandmother, Dolores, who always had the game on when I would visit her growing up.  In fact, the Cubs' historic Series-clinching win came on my grandmother's birthday, so here's to her and to those lovable losers that finally paid off all of the agony and the waiting.

Anyway, now it's back to the grindstone on picking some NFL Week 9 games - let's do it!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-1) - It's offense vs. defense in a suddenly very relevant divisional rivalry for our Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  And thank Kanye for the start of flex scheduling that will finally put a potentially great game in prime time on Sunday.  Boy this is a hard game to pick.  On the one hand, we know what this Broncos defense brings to the table, and their offense should get some breathing room against one of the most generous defenses in the league.  On the other hand, the Raiders' passing offense might catch some breaks with Aquib Talib sitting this one out, and Jack Del Rio brings some insider knowledge of Denver's strengths and weaknesses that could come in handy in his scheming.  At the end of the day, I'm going with the team that has plenty of experience playing in big games under the bright lights that has also gone 8 - 1 in these teams' past nine meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5) - Here's another high-stakes divisional game to keep on your radar, especially since the Cowboys are trying to make it clear there's only wild card scraps left for the rest of the NFC East.  It might not be the prettiest affair given that these teams' defenses have played consistently great football this year while their offenses have stalled mightily at times.  It seems every time I try to get on the Eagles' train, they disappoint me, but I can see them put the clamps on the Giants' anemic offense and winning the turnover battle here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens - And now for perhaps the nastiest of our top shelf rivalries this week.  A month ago, it looked like the Steelers would run away with the AFC North, but one of those ill-timed Ben Roethlisberger injuries puts the Ravens squarely in striking distance if they can pull off the win this week.  All bets are always off in this one, and in fact, the Ravens have won four of the last five despite having a much worse overall record these past couple of years.  But on the chance Big Ben plays, he'll be facing a really banged up Baltimore defense that might really struggle to keep all of the Steelers' offensive weapons in check.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6) - Those Norsemen continue to look awfully normal after a red-hot 5 - 0 start.  And this matchup reminds me of that one above the Broncos and Raiders in that you'll have strength against strength when the Lions offense and Vikings defense are on the field and a whole lot of sloppy anarchy when possession changes.  In the end, Minnesota has been downright dominant at home in that shiny new stadium so far this season, and you have to think they'll finally make some adjustments with extra help at the line of scrimmage to keep Sam Bradford from getting pummeled on every down.  I think.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7) - Welp, that was quite the wild shootout last week between Green Bay and Atlanta.  NFC Championship preview, perhaps?  We might have ourselves another great offensive showdown this week as Andrew Luck will continue trying to put 52 co-workers on his back to keep pace with the improving Packers passing attack.  You're right, that's not fair - maybe 51 co-workers since Adam Vinatieri is breaking a bajillion scoring and longevity records every week.  But I digress.  We all know how bad Indy's defense is these days, right?  Not a recipe for success at Lambeau Field with the Packers hot on the Vikings' heels in their division.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-4.5)- In spite of themselves, I'm almost ready to declare the Titans "pretty good." DeMarco Murray is having a heckuva year, which is opening up the field for Marcus Mariota and putting less pressure on this decent defense to hold things down.  If they win a tough road game against an improving Chargers team this weekend, I'll be officially impressed.  But I think that could be tough with Joey Bosa stalking the line of scrimmage and San Diego's offense being pretty dang reliable this year.

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7) -  True story: I accidentally typed "Seahacks" here.  And though Seattle's defense is just about as good as ever (barring last week on short rest), Seattle's offense looks awfully hacked.  I mean, the Saints defense held them to 13 points.  So the Bills have a shot here if they can keep this one within a score and hope for some busted coverage late in the fourth quarter. 

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Let the social media record show that I was unsuccessful in jinxing the Falcons by correctly picking them on Thursday.  P.S., I can't even be a petty Saints fan anymore - Atlanta is the real deal, my friends, and Matt Ryan is making a beeline for that MVP award.  Jinx!!!

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Cleveland Browns - Sure, Dak Prescott showed flashes of potential in the preseason, but who in the world thought he'd take Dallas to an NFC-best 6 - 1 start?  Having Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield sure helps.  This week's game in the back-to-being-tortured sports town of Cleveland ought to pad some stats for these two Offensive Rookie of the Year hopefuls to boot.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) - Remember when we all got drunk and thought the Jaguars might actually be good this year?  Two months later, it looks like they best they'll do is hope to ruin Myles Garrett's career in the next draft.  It's more sad trombones for the Jags and another big win for the playoff-hungry Chiefs in my estimation.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-4) - Just about the only thing intriguing about this game to me is whether Jay Ajayi can get to triple digits against the Jets' still-stout run defense.  That run defense is pretty much the chimney left standing after a devastating house fire though as far as New York's roster is concerned, so expect Ryan Tannehill to have a career day in this irrelevant AFC snoozer.

New Orleans Saints (-4) at San Francisco 49ers - Before you get too hyped up about the Saints this year, don't forget how this always, always ends, thanks to this great reader contribution from Deadspin:

A summary of how every Saints season since 2011 has gone.

• September- Lose our first 3 games in heartbreaking fashion and realize the defense is still god-awful. A 4-12 season is coming.
• October- Start playing better to crawl back to .500 and inexplicably blow out a really good team. Fans look at the November schedule and notice it is considerably easier. Hope begins to arise.
• November- **** the bed at home against the worst team in the league. Proceed to get blown out every game for the rest of the month because the defense is allowing Kirk Cousins to put up 47 points. Winter is coming and all hope is gone.
• December- Win our final 3 games after being eliminated from playoff contention to finish 7-9. As a result, we drop down to 13th in the draft and move the Falcons and Buccaneers up.

The Saints should absolutely win this game, and the delusioned sports fan in me is thinking we will go on a tear when we Sheldon Rankins and Delvin Breaux back to shore up the defense that is now not quite the literal worst in the league.  I hope they don't screw it up, so I'm being generous in the afterglow of that Cubs World Series.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams - That bye week sure seemed to do the Panthers good.  Let's see if it sticks against a very beatable Rams team.  The potential Achilles?  Carolina will be playing without its starting left tackle, which could allow Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald to feast on the beleaguered Cam Newton.  Counterpoint: they'll be playing against Case Keenum.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 9, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Lions +6 over Vikings
• Bills +7 over Seahawks
• Dolphins -4 over Jets

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 64 - 54 - 2
Against the Spread: 12 - 12