NFL Week 8 Picks

Welp, looks like I've fallen behind again on getting you some timely Week 8 picks.  At this point in the year, there's no salvaging a respectable cumulative record (for reference, I was already at 69, 64 and 66 correct picks in my last three seasons at this point), so I reckon I will keep doing this out of obligation to my slow, sad death march to stay above 0.500.   Since I've been agonizing back and forth on so many of these games, I thought I'd introduce a dumb new element where I also flip a coin to see what the almighty Washington has to say - in an eerie coincidence, it went Vegas favorite in nearly every case, no lie. While we're here, time for some more jinxing of the Indians from this desperate Cubs fan - Cleveland will have a clean sweep and win it all at Wrigley Field in three straight shutouts.  Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller are literally unhittable while the Chicago batters have zero luck whatsoever figuring them out or hitting any home runs because the baseball gods have already spoken.

Okay, got that out of the way - on to Week 8 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) - Two high-ceiling offenses square off with possible playoff seeding on the line in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! Call it wishful thinking on this Saints fan's part, but I wonder how the high-flying Falcons offense will hold up against the Packers' stout run defense.  With Tevin Coleman on the sideline, Atlanta will have a hard time staying on schedule with Devonta Freeman's more traditional "up the gut" style and might resort a little heavily to the old "throw a jump ball to Julio Jones" method of scoring.  It certainly isn't the worst game plan, but I think it leaves the Falcons vulnerable to an ill-timed turnover or two.  On the other side of the ball, the Packers have some breathing room against this mediocre Dirty Birds defense, and I think Aaron Rodgers will do enough to keep this one close on the R-E-L-A-X tour of 2016.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Falcons (in which heads = home team)

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Buffalo Bills - Rex Ryan continued to prove how much he loves to play spoiler to the Patriots earlier this season, and now the Bills have a chance to sweep when their rivals come to the Ralph on Sunday.  The big problem?  The Patriots have Tom Brady back while LeSean McCoy looks like an injury scratch this time around.  Hopefully Bills fans will find a healthy way to let out their aggression at the tailgate if things go south fast.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Patriots

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-4) - Don't look now, but the Chargers are still very much in the mix in the AFC West if they can sweep the Broncos here.  Like I said last week, Joey Bosa has become the kind of defensive x-factor that should make Denver fans shudder, especially given how their offensive line has struggled in recent weeks.  I hope my recency bias isn't coming too much into play on this pick, but the Broncos' defense just hasn't looked as dominant in recent weeks against the better offenses in the league, and the Chargers have one of those.  And if Bosa and friends can get to Trevor Siemian early and often, they may actually have the upper hand on both sides of the ball.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Broncos

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) - I wouldn't argue with you at all if you think this is actually the game of the week.  The Eagles and Cowboys have both been stunningly good so far this season - the Eagles on the strength of a stingy, opportunistic defense and the Cowboys on the strength of a Thor's hammer of a physical, run-heavy offense.  I do think this one comes down to how these two rookie quarterbacks fare in a lot of ways.  We know Philly will focus on stopping Ezekiel Elliott, so it'll be intriguing to see what Dak Prescott does to open up the field beyond the line of scrimmage.  And for Carson Wentz, we'll want to see whether he improves his ball security after giving up three picks in the past three weeks.  Seeing how Dallas has been able to shred even good defensive lines so far, I gotta go with 'murica's Team at home after that bye week.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Cowboys

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Washington Redskinks vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Ugh.  Another mediocre London game.  The quality of these early Sunday stinkers might be enough for the U.K. to withdraw from NATO if these teams don't turn it around this week.  When you look at the numbers, these are two evenly matched teams in a myriad of ways, which makes this the perfect kind of coin flip game when you throw the time zone wrench into the machine.  If I'm trying to give someone an edge though, I like the Bengals with Tyler Eifert returning to full strength.  Andy Dalton's offense is just a bit better when he's got another reliable receiving target consistently on the field.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Indianapolis Colts - This is just the kind of game that Andrew Luck will decide to play lights out to disappoint me once again for not picking him.  But I still can't shake how very bad the Colts' defense has been and how much better the Chiefs offense looks when it plays against really bad defenses.  See Exhibit A: vs. New Orleans Saints in Week 7.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Chiefs

 

 

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints - The good news at this point is that I don't even have the emotional investment to feel bad if I pick the Saints and they end up losing these days.  So I'm going to try to make a thoughtful pick here, even if it's going against the grain and all but assuring Russell Wilson will have another career day shredding that secondary.  But if there ever was a time that the Saints could beat this team, this is it.  Early game at home, Wilson hobbling around and possibly playing without his starting left tackle, and the Seahawks defense without Kam Chancellor or Michael Bennett after being on the field for over 45 minutes in that brutal Sunday night game in Arizona.  I can definitely wait to see how NOLA screws this one up.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Seahawks

 

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (-2.5) - Hoo boy, one of the league's worst offenses will square off with one of the worst defenses in a game that seems destined to be weird.  The Lions have been giving me absolute fits this season too with all of those last-minute wins and losses.  You know what?  I'm not going to logic my way through this one - I'm going 100% with the coin flip.  COIN FLIP SAYS:  Texans

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3) - Seriously, if the NFL really wants to know why people have stopped watching these games, maybe they should explore why in the heck they keep foisting Titans-Jaguars on us in a single Thursday night option year after year.  Why not bury this one on Sundays at noon where it belongs in a shallow, unwatched grave.  Okay, rant over.  Let the social media record show I successfully picked the Titans here because the only person who won't fire Gus Bradley at this point is the one who can.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Titans

Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) - Smart move on the Raiders' part to stay put in Florida between their rout of the Jaguars last week and their next game against the Bucs this week.  The matchup is such that I think we'll have a shootout on our hands, so to me, this comes down to whether you would trust Jameis Winston or Derek Carr in charge on a 4th quarter two-minute drill.  I like the Raiders to keep campaigning for their first playoff appearance since 2002.  COIN FLIP SAYS:Buccaneers

New York Jets (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns - It's the Journeyman Bowl between the down-and-out Ryan Fitzpatrick and the not-quite-as-injured Browns QB Josh McCown.  They should both get a pretty nice confidence boost against two of the worst secondaries in the league too.  Despite the 0 - 7 record, I wouldn't exactly sleep on the Browns here.  McCown really could get the upper hand against that woeful pass defense, especially if Fitzpatrick continues to throw back-breaking picks in the second half.  And the Browns could get an intangibles bump if the Indians make their way to 3 - 1 by Sunday.  But the Jets should still win this game.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Browns

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3) - As bad as the Panthers have looked, I just can't help but think Ron Rivera will figure out a way for this team to save face and turn things around defensively before this season ends.  If these teams had the same amount of rest and health, I might choose differently, but I think this desperate Panthers team could catch the Cardinals sleeping after that aforementioned overtime slog last week.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Panthers

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Chicago Bears - Oof.  The Vikings sure got exposed last week with that patchwork offensive line and no answers from Sam Bradford against his old team.  That could spell trouble for Minnesota later in the season against some better teams, but I don't think the Zimm Reapers will have much trouble against the DOA Bears on Halloween.  COIN FLIP SAYS:Vikings

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 8, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -6.5 over Bills
• Eagles +4.5 over Cowboys
• Raiders over Buccaneers (PK)

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 55 - 51 - 1
Against the Spread: 10 - 11