October 4, 2016

The First Quarter Lady Blitz NFL Awards

We are one month and a quarter of the way into the 2016 NFL season, and it sure looks a little different than you might have thought.  Both of last year's NFC Championship contenders are 1 - 3 while the four teams with brand new NFL starters under center are a combined 13 - 2.  We live in strange times, and they are worthy of some fake internet awards. Let's roll out the hardware!

The Guns and Butter Award: The Sam Bradford Trade
Anyone worth their salt will tell you it's still way too early in the season to evaluate whether the Eagles/Vikings Sam Bradford trade (or any offseason move, for that matter) was a success.  But given that these two teams are a combined 7 - 0 one month in, there's a pretty darn good early indicator that it was a good trade.  Both Bradford and Carson Wentz who replaced him in Philadelphia have passer ratings in the top ten and zero interceptions, and they have each notched wins against some good teams like the Packers, Steelers and Giants.  Bradford looks as good as he ever has so far behind a balanced running attack and a defense that gives the Vikings plenty of time and opportunities to put points on the board without much risk.  And Wentz has been a calm and collected rookie revelation in the Eagles new regime - he's accurate, he makes good decisions on the fly, and he isn't afraid to test defenses downfield.  We'll see if my very stout blogging jinx affects these guys when we check back in at mid-season, but for now, it's impossible to envision a better start for either team in a rare win-win quarterback trade.  Minor detail: I might also need to add an ancillary sentence about how good the defenses of Mike Zimmer and Jim Schwartz have been in taking the pressure off of Wentz and Bradford in their new environs.  Those Broncos might have been onto something last year.

The Most Likely Mid-Season Firing Award: Mike McCoy
Sure, Chuck Pagano is breathing down McCoy's neck on this one, but let's recount the ways the Chargers got to 1 - 3 this season despite leading every single game late in the fourth quarter.  1) Coughing up a 21-point halftime lead against the Chiefs; 2) Giving up a 63-yard touchdown pass with one minute left against the Colts; 3) Blowing a 13-point lead against the Saints with three consecutive fourth quarter turnovers including two fumbles inside their own 30 yardline.  McCoy steered the ship during San Diego's miserable, injury-riddled 4 - 12 campaign in 2015, so you can understand why he's been given another chance this year.  But with a better offensive line, a productive Melvin Gordon and an upgraded defense, there are no dividends to show after three very ugly, very winnable outings on the softer part of the Chargers' schedule.  Now they face the Broncos twice, the Raiders and the Falcons in the next four weeks.  It's not hard to see a scenario where McCoy is sent packing after an abysmal 1 - 7 start. 

The Not-So-Fast Award: Atlanta Falcons
After carving up the vaunted Panthers defense for 570 yards and 48 points on Sunday, heads are starting to turn toward the Falcons as an NFC frontrunner this season.  Matt Ryan has been playing out of his mind through these first four games - he already has 200 more passing yards than any other quarterback and a league-leading 126.3 passer rating.  But you might want to pump the breaks before you go ahead and crown Atlanta the new greatest show on turf.  I might be a bitter Saints fan, but history backs me up on this, lest we forget last season's massive collapse after a 6 - 0 start.  Over Ryan's career, he's had a solid 97.6 rating in the month of September, but he's shown a notable drop off in passer rating, touchdown passes, yards per attempt and interception rate from October onward nearly every year.  And there's the question of whether at least some of Atlanta's fortunes--especially on offense--are due to a very manageable early-season schedule.  They've played three mediocre to awful defenses in the Saints, Raiders and Buccaneers as well as that Panthers secondary that seemed to have no idea what it was doing for the majority of Sunday's game.  Over the next six weeks, Atlanta will face much, much better defensive competition from the Broncos, Seahawks, Packers and Eagles, so buyer beware.

The Cornerback Milk Carton Award: Carolina Panthers, New York Jets (tie)
Speaking of those lowly Carolina defensive backs, who would have thought that the second-best defense in the NFL from a year ago would allow 500 passing yards total and 300 yards to one Mr. Julio Jones?  Despite what I said earlier the Falcons are certainly a potent offense with a high ceiling, but it was just plain weird to watch the Panthers blow coverage after coverage on Sunday with missed assignments, bad decisions and eventually the kind of fatigue that comes with doing 50-yard sprints with Jones on every down.  The big headline is that Carolina is really regretting Josh Norman walk, and of course they knew they wouldn't stumble upon a draft or free agent goldmine with the same talent.  But the Panthers also look like they've fallen back to Earth in general so far this season - they're a bottom five team in points allowed, middling in sacks, and sporting a -3 turnover differential, which is in a whole 'nother ballpark from their +20 differential a year ago.  While we're here, can we just quickly talk about how Revis Island has quickly become a Revis Archipelago  Great Plain  Isthmus ... uh, how Darrelle Revis is finally becoming mortal and the Jets are giving up a league-worst 9.7 yards per pass attempt?  It doesn't help that Ryan Fitzpatrick has lost all short-term memory regarding his team's jersey colors, but if the Jets can't get it done on defense this year, they are cooked.  I'll stop picking them now so you can stop yelling at your phone/computer screen every week.


The Victim of an Obvious Voodoo Hex Award: Odell Beckham, Jr.
Finally, I'm genuinely sad to see Odell Beckham struggling right now.  I don't mean that in a hot take-mongering "distraction" kind of way.  I just mean he's so talented and fun to watch when he does all of those extraterrestrial things with his hands, and he hasn't yet figured out how to work through a slump. Beckham said as much after last night's stifling loss to a very good Vikings team.  Could it be that there's a J.J. Watt effect where every team is doubling up on him and taking him seriously these days?  Or that the white hot media spotlight and two incredibly hard-to-repeat Pro Bowl seasons are putting extra pressure on him?  I say none of the above.  You can pinpoint the moment when Beckham lost his mojo - Week 16 of the 2015 season against the Panthers and OBJ's arch-nemesis Josh Norman.  Beckham hasn't caught a single touchdown pass and has only broken 100 receiving yards once since that time.  You can call it a mental meltdown, but I know it was obviously a voodoo hex or monkey's paw or maybe both working against this otherworldly receiver outside of the known time-space continuum.  Alex Jones backs me up on this... probably.  Anyway, that's all to say I hope Beckham does some soul-searching on the steps of a Laotian temple or punches a bunch of frozen sides of beef like Rocky to find his mojo again.  The NFL is a much more boring place without it.

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