Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) - I'm not sure this or any other game on the slate this weekend deserves a Game of the Week nod, so let's just be grateful that last weekend was easily the best week we've had in a lackluster NFL season. Having said that, this could still be a great defensive chess match with playoff implications, so I'm putting it on the top shelf. "Seahawks at home" isn't as sure of a bet as it used to be, but I don't see the Eagles offense having the chops to eke out a win here with a rookie quarterback on a tough business trip. Unless Philly's D/ST has a performance for the ages (which is possible), I like Seattle.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskinks (-3) - Ok, now I'm officially freaked out by whether or not the Packers can pull off their usual late-season resurgence and, gulp, if Aaron Rodgers has permanently lost his other-worldly quarterback mojo. To be fair, you can't really pin this on Rodgers when Green Bay's defense has given up an average 37 points per game over the last three weeks. But this feels like a turn the corner or bust kind of game for the Packers. I'm going on a hunch here that the Redskinks still struggle mightily against the better offenses in the league and that the Packers might get Clay Matthews back and will certainly be playing in desperation mode when they take the field on Sunday night. On the bright side for Packers fans, they might finally get rid of Dom Capers if things go south quickly in Washington this week though.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - If there's a reason to believe this game could be closer than you think, the Ravens are the top run defense in the league and they'll need to execute a perfect ground game if they hope to keep pace with the uber-productive and efficient Cowboys offense. Even if they slow Ezekiel Elliott down though, they'll have to be a lot more consistent on offense than we've seen this season (last week's cakewalk against the Browns excluded). And when you look at Baltimore's track record of wins and losses this season, they haven't played an offense anywhere close to this caliber and come out clean on the other side. So I'm going to put a little too much faith in Dallas at home this week.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) - Ah, two AFC South teams that we might be a little overconfident in since they've both trounced the Packers in recent weeks. I really thought the Titans had the upper hand when these teams met earlier this season given how they could exploit the Colts' bad run defense and offensive line, but it was not meant to be as it hasn't been yet in Andrew Luck's pro career. I reckon the Titans will have to wait until next season to beat this team coming off a bye at home.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - This feels like an anything goes kind of game between two teams making a last gasp effort to stay in playoff contention. I am changing my original pick from the Bengals to the Bills, so it's certain to come back to haunt me. But I just don't like Cincy's win-loss resume this season. They've only beaten the Jets, Browns and pre-Ajayi-breakout Dolphins this season, and Buffalo's well-rested run game might just trample right over them in the Jungle this weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) - How 'bout those cardiac Chiefs? They've had a real knack for fourth-quarter comebacks this year, and their Marcus Peters-led quest for all of the takeaways will probably spell bad news for Jameis Winston, a most generously turnover-prone quarterback.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2) - Man, the Vikings are doing quite an impression of the 2015 Falcons these days, eh? There isn't any other way to see Minnesota's offense but as exposed at this point - they can't run the ball or keep Sam Bradford upright for any reasonable stretch of downs, and it's obviously starting to wear down this defense. The Cardinals are still only as good as Carson Palmer in many ways, and he could certainly give this game away if the early-season version rears his head. But I think Arizona has some wiggle room for a mistake or two as long as that fearsome pass rush keeps the Vikings out of scoring position.
Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders (-6) - For all of the NFL's expansion gimmicks, I'm actually kind of looking forward to this Mexico City matchup. Of course, playing in a smog-filled bowl below sea level might not give us peak performance, but maybe the fùtbol crowd will make this a bit livelier than your typical football crowd. The Raiders look to be on a rock-solid road to the playoffs at this point while the Texans have mostly been frauds outside of the weak-sauce AFC South, so I see Oakland getting one step closer to clinching that postseason slot south of the border.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) - Let the social media record show that, sadly, I felt like the Saints would blow it and they sure enough did with continually awful special teams play and the kind of clock management only Andy Reid would be proud of. Le sigh, as death ticks off another season on Drew Brees' waning peak years.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) at Cleveland Browns - That was a heartbreaking loss for the Steelers last week while the Browns are probably numb to the feelings of heartbreak at this point with an 0 - 10 start to the season. I'm not sold on this being a blowout for Pittsburgh given how much different Ben Roethlisberger has looked on the road this season and how the Steelers are notorious for playing down to their level of competition. But after an 0 - 4 slide, they've got to come out guns a-blazin' this week to stay within reach of the AFC North title. I'm expecting a lot of big plays downfield and a resurgent game for Antonio Brown.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5) - Look how excited Jim Caldwell is about the near-certainty of staying atop the NFC North this weekend! The big question is how much the Lions will put into this game knowing that they've got a quick turnaround to play the Vikings on Thursday. I think any little bit ought to do it against the endlessly flailing Jaguars.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams - Jared Goff time is upon us! The lack of film on this guy could put the Dolphins at risk on defense this week, but bear in mind that the Rams sat Goff as a third-string backup up until this point behind Case Keenum and Sean Mannion. That's no bueno for a Miami pass rush really starting to find its groove.
New England Patriots (-12) at San Francisco 49ers - No Gronk, no problem. LeGarrette Blount fantasy owners will be rejoicing this weekend in a game where no point spread seems too big.
Lovely Lady Locks
Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 11, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Buccaneers +7.5 over Chiefs
- Browns +8 over Steelers
- Dolphins -2.5 over Rams
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 79 - 67 - 2
Against the Spread: 17 - 13
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