NFL Week 8 Picks

Welp, looks like I've fallen behind again on getting you some timely Week 8 picks.  At this point in the year, there's no salvaging a respectable cumulative record (for reference, I was already at 69, 64 and 66 correct picks in my last three seasons at this point), so I reckon I will keep doing this out of obligation to my slow, sad death march to stay above 0.500.   Since I've been agonizing back and forth on so many of these games, I thought I'd introduce a dumb new element where I also flip a coin to see what the almighty Washington has to say - in an eerie coincidence, it went Vegas favorite in nearly every case, no lie. While we're here, time for some more jinxing of the Indians from this desperate Cubs fan - Cleveland will have a clean sweep and win it all at Wrigley Field in three straight shutouts.  Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller are literally unhittable while the Chicago batters have zero luck whatsoever figuring them out or hitting any home runs because the baseball gods have already spoken.

Okay, got that out of the way - on to Week 8 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) - Two high-ceiling offenses square off with possible playoff seeding on the line in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! Call it wishful thinking on this Saints fan's part, but I wonder how the high-flying Falcons offense will hold up against the Packers' stout run defense.  With Tevin Coleman on the sideline, Atlanta will have a hard time staying on schedule with Devonta Freeman's more traditional "up the gut" style and might resort a little heavily to the old "throw a jump ball to Julio Jones" method of scoring.  It certainly isn't the worst game plan, but I think it leaves the Falcons vulnerable to an ill-timed turnover or two.  On the other side of the ball, the Packers have some breathing room against this mediocre Dirty Birds defense, and I think Aaron Rodgers will do enough to keep this one close on the R-E-L-A-X tour of 2016.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Falcons (in which heads = home team)

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Buffalo Bills - Rex Ryan continued to prove how much he loves to play spoiler to the Patriots earlier this season, and now the Bills have a chance to sweep when their rivals come to the Ralph on Sunday.  The big problem?  The Patriots have Tom Brady back while LeSean McCoy looks like an injury scratch this time around.  Hopefully Bills fans will find a healthy way to let out their aggression at the tailgate if things go south fast.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Patriots

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-4) - Don't look now, but the Chargers are still very much in the mix in the AFC West if they can sweep the Broncos here.  Like I said last week, Joey Bosa has become the kind of defensive x-factor that should make Denver fans shudder, especially given how their offensive line has struggled in recent weeks.  I hope my recency bias isn't coming too much into play on this pick, but the Broncos' defense just hasn't looked as dominant in recent weeks against the better offenses in the league, and the Chargers have one of those.  And if Bosa and friends can get to Trevor Siemian early and often, they may actually have the upper hand on both sides of the ball.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Broncos

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) - I wouldn't argue with you at all if you think this is actually the game of the week.  The Eagles and Cowboys have both been stunningly good so far this season - the Eagles on the strength of a stingy, opportunistic defense and the Cowboys on the strength of a Thor's hammer of a physical, run-heavy offense.  I do think this one comes down to how these two rookie quarterbacks fare in a lot of ways.  We know Philly will focus on stopping Ezekiel Elliott, so it'll be intriguing to see what Dak Prescott does to open up the field beyond the line of scrimmage.  And for Carson Wentz, we'll want to see whether he improves his ball security after giving up three picks in the past three weeks.  Seeing how Dallas has been able to shred even good defensive lines so far, I gotta go with 'murica's Team at home after that bye week.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Cowboys

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Washington Redskinks vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Ugh.  Another mediocre London game.  The quality of these early Sunday stinkers might be enough for the U.K. to withdraw from NATO if these teams don't turn it around this week.  When you look at the numbers, these are two evenly matched teams in a myriad of ways, which makes this the perfect kind of coin flip game when you throw the time zone wrench into the machine.  If I'm trying to give someone an edge though, I like the Bengals with Tyler Eifert returning to full strength.  Andy Dalton's offense is just a bit better when he's got another reliable receiving target consistently on the field.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Indianapolis Colts - This is just the kind of game that Andrew Luck will decide to play lights out to disappoint me once again for not picking him.  But I still can't shake how very bad the Colts' defense has been and how much better the Chiefs offense looks when it plays against really bad defenses.  See Exhibit A: vs. New Orleans Saints in Week 7.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Chiefs

 

 

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints - The good news at this point is that I don't even have the emotional investment to feel bad if I pick the Saints and they end up losing these days.  So I'm going to try to make a thoughtful pick here, even if it's going against the grain and all but assuring Russell Wilson will have another career day shredding that secondary.  But if there ever was a time that the Saints could beat this team, this is it.  Early game at home, Wilson hobbling around and possibly playing without his starting left tackle, and the Seahawks defense without Kam Chancellor or Michael Bennett after being on the field for over 45 minutes in that brutal Sunday night game in Arizona.  I can definitely wait to see how NOLA screws this one up.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Seahawks

 

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (-2.5) - Hoo boy, one of the league's worst offenses will square off with one of the worst defenses in a game that seems destined to be weird.  The Lions have been giving me absolute fits this season too with all of those last-minute wins and losses.  You know what?  I'm not going to logic my way through this one - I'm going 100% with the coin flip.  COIN FLIP SAYS:  Texans

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3) - Seriously, if the NFL really wants to know why people have stopped watching these games, maybe they should explore why in the heck they keep foisting Titans-Jaguars on us in a single Thursday night option year after year.  Why not bury this one on Sundays at noon where it belongs in a shallow, unwatched grave.  Okay, rant over.  Let the social media record show I successfully picked the Titans here because the only person who won't fire Gus Bradley at this point is the one who can.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Titans

Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) - Smart move on the Raiders' part to stay put in Florida between their rout of the Jaguars last week and their next game against the Bucs this week.  The matchup is such that I think we'll have a shootout on our hands, so to me, this comes down to whether you would trust Jameis Winston or Derek Carr in charge on a 4th quarter two-minute drill.  I like the Raiders to keep campaigning for their first playoff appearance since 2002.  COIN FLIP SAYS:Buccaneers

New York Jets (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns - It's the Journeyman Bowl between the down-and-out Ryan Fitzpatrick and the not-quite-as-injured Browns QB Josh McCown.  They should both get a pretty nice confidence boost against two of the worst secondaries in the league too.  Despite the 0 - 7 record, I wouldn't exactly sleep on the Browns here.  McCown really could get the upper hand against that woeful pass defense, especially if Fitzpatrick continues to throw back-breaking picks in the second half.  And the Browns could get an intangibles bump if the Indians make their way to 3 - 1 by Sunday.  But the Jets should still win this game.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Browns

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3) - As bad as the Panthers have looked, I just can't help but think Ron Rivera will figure out a way for this team to save face and turn things around defensively before this season ends.  If these teams had the same amount of rest and health, I might choose differently, but I think this desperate Panthers team could catch the Cardinals sleeping after that aforementioned overtime slog last week.  COIN FLIP SAYS: Panthers

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Chicago Bears - Oof.  The Vikings sure got exposed last week with that patchwork offensive line and no answers from Sam Bradford against his old team.  That could spell trouble for Minnesota later in the season against some better teams, but I don't think the Zimm Reapers will have much trouble against the DOA Bears on Halloween.  COIN FLIP SAYS:Vikings

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 8, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -6.5 over Bills
• Eagles +4.5 over Cowboys
• Raiders over Buccaneers (PK)

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 55 - 51 - 1
Against the Spread: 10 - 11

NFL Week 7 Picks

Welp, that's a little better.  Could have even gotten to double digits on good picks if the freakin' Colts had, I dunno, not given up 16 points in the final 150 seconds of that putrid Sunday night affair.  Now I turn my potent jinxing powers to the Dodgers taking down the Cubs only to be swept by the Indians' magical bullpen that will shut them out in every game.  Anyway, back to this other sport - let's dive into some Week 7 picks!

I should note that I ran out of time to do the usual this week - so enjoy these picks in lightning round format!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) - On perhaps the weakest weekly schedule yet, I guess I'll tap this game the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Given how the Cardinals have picked up the pieces these past couple of weeks, it might actually be a pretty good intra-divisional battle.  Here are my burning questions: will the Seahawks defense be as dominant without Kam Chancellor in tow and can the Cardinals actually beat a good team at this point given that their win streak has been against the lowly Jets and 49ers?  Although I'd like to see Arizona take this game to keep things interesting in the NFC West, I'm not feeling great about Carson Palmer's prospects against Seattle's defense, Kam or no Kam.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles - Oh undefeated, hyper-balanced Eagles, we hardly knew ye.  I still think this is still a decent team and hardly a cake walk for Minnesota, but Philly has struggled against the better teams it has faced.  Plus the Vikings are coming off of a bye with a whole lot more game film on Carson Wentz than the Eagles' earlier competition had.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-8.5) - They don't do much well these days, but ESPN nailed this promo for Monday night's matchup between Brock Osweiler's Texans and his former team in Denver.  I've picked the Broncos these past two weeks, and they've let me down.  For one, their offensive line has been wet garbage, and that could come back to bite them against Houston's rock-solid defensive front.  But I like Gary Kubiak being back to right the offensive ship and Denver having essentially a bye week to prepare since their last game on a Thursday night. And I just don't think the Broncos let this many missed tackles happen to bail Osweiler out of another underwhelming performance.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Giants (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams - This feels like one of those coin flip picks, and we all know by now how these London games tend to throw a lot of confounding time zone- and haggis-related factors into the mix.  I guess with the Rams starting to lose their footing in the secondary/pass rush and Odell Beckham heating up in a big way these past couple of weeks, I like the Giants' scoring edge here.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) - So my Saints barely pulled it off last week after blowing a 21-point lead.  That's the way of the world these days with Drew Brees putting up another 400+ yard, 4 touchdown beauty and barely winning by a field goal.  The thing is, he hasn't been so good on the road in the past couple of years, and that won't get it done against a much more balanced Chiefs team at Arrowhead.

Washington Redskinks at Detroit Lions (-1.5) - Fun(ish) Fact: these two teams are nearly identical in points scored and points allowed per game.  Here's what I think I know about the Redskinks: they can attribute some of their recent success to an improved ground game.  They're averaging twice the rush yards per game in their wins as in their losses this year.  And the Lions are without Haloti Ngata this week, which makes this issue a steeper hill to climb on defense.  Just a hunch.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins - This could be a different kind of game than I envision if LeSean McCoy is out or at less than 100%.  And the Dolphins' offense sure looked a lot better with Laremy Tunsil back in the fold last week.  I dunno, I have a feeling I'll be disappointed, but I'm going Bills on the strength of their much-improved defense and Miami's struggles against run-heavy offenses.

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) - Who's ready for a wild and crazy shootout?  I gotta say, for all of my flack thrown to the Chargers last week, their defense looks a whole lot better with Joey Bosa finally taking the field.  But I can't put any more caveats into how good the Falcons' offense is.  If the Legion of Boom barely survived these guys on a bogus PI no-call last week, I don't see how the Chargers do it better this week in the Georgia Dome.

New England Patriots (-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers - Dang it, Ben Roethlisberger.  Not only have you burned my fantasy prospects to the ground, you had your annual poorly timed injury to ruin the chances of this game being one of the best of the regular season.  The Steelers can still weather most of the storm in Ben's absence as they've done in years past, but not this week against the Scorched Earth Patriots of 2016.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9) - Let the social media record show I picked the Packers to win on Thursday.  1 - 0 baby!  Now I get to just sit back and watch my rock solid picks take me to 7 - 8 again.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3) - It is the Titans' way to lay an egg at home after showing signs of life, and the Colts are deep in desperation mode at this point in the season.  So I wouldn't put a dime on this game.  But if we're just talking matchups, Tennessee's offense is thriving on a resurgent running game with DeMarco Murray, and the Colts' ground defense looks something like this. (Can you tell I think that was a really, really bad play for Indy last week?)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10) - This just in: the Browns are still Browns-ing.

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) - Could this be an early east coast trap game for the Raiders?  It wouldn't totally surprise me, but Oakland still looks like a sturdy 9- to 10-win team on the rise that hasn't given up a bad loss yet this season. 

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-2) - The Geno Smith rebirth is finally upon us!  By no means is he the long-term answer for the Jets, but he might give this offense a shot in the arm after all of those soul-crushing Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions this year.  Counterpoint: that Jets secondary might make Joe Flacco look ultra-elite on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) at San Francisco 49ers - I don't think the Niners' stadium attendance problems are going to get any better this week with a stinker of a matchup.  I can't say I feel great about either team's prospects, but the Bucs get Doug Martin back after their bye to shred the 49ers' puny run defense.  That might be enough to get the job done in a presumably desolate Santa Clara arena.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 7, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Texans +8.5 over Broncos
• Browns +10 over Bengals
• Raiders +1 over Jaguars

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 47 - 45
Against the Spread: 9 - 9

NFL Week 6 Picks

If there's a benefit to my season-long face plant on these here picks, at least I can now pick against the Cubs for the next 4 - 14 games in hope of jinxing them out of a 108-year championship slump.  With great power comes great responsibility to pretend you have any cosmic sway over the curse of the goat from your armchair in Memphis.  Anyway, I'm going to shake things up a bit with my methodology this week to see if I can at least outfox Skip Bayless at this point.  And if not, like the Browns say, there's always next week!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) - Might we be gearing up for an NFC playoff preview in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week?  I know Dez Bryant will be eating his Wheaties to get back on the field and hopefully avenge the Dez Caught It Bowl in January.  After watching Dallas grind their opponents down with a bend-don't-break defense and a hype-justified debut for Ezekiel Elliott these last few weeks, they definitely have a chance here if they can bend the Packers to their slow, physical style.  But if there's something to be concerned about (other than Aaron Rodgers), it's Green Bay's defense, which has held opposing rushers to less than 43 (!) yards per game.  That could be quite the recipe for disaster and a rare Dak Prescott turnover if the Cowboys can't diversify their offensive attack.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Washington Redskinks - Next up, the Eagles and Redskinks have some divisional positioning to sort out in their first head-to-head this season. Although the teams of the NFC East never cease to perplex me, I'm going to go with my instinct that the Eagles are still pretty good and well-balanced while the Redskinks have benefited greatly from hapless competition during their current winning streak.  In sum though, no matter which one of these teams I pick, this is a Schrodinger's cat deal where they've already lost before the game ever started.  Deep Thoughts with Lady Blitz.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (PK) - With the Broncos taking a step back last week, the AFC West is still very much in play for just about everyone.  Oh wait, not the Chargers.  Definitely not the Chargers.  Anyway, the Raiders have played just about as well as anyone could have expected - their only loss so far has been against the surprisingly good Falcons.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been all kinds of up and down, having last played a real stinker against the Steelers in primetime.  I'm positive this pick will come back to bite me, but I'm taking a chance on the Chiefs given the return of Jamaal Charles and Andy Reid's crazy-good 15 - 2 record following a bye week to this point.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) - Dang it, Falcons!  Why do you have to go and be good in a tough road game so that I can't make fun of you without sounding like a petty buffoon?  We got ourselves a bird fight this week between the league's best offense and a truly dynastic defense.  As far as this Saints fan is concerned, these two teams can double-TKO each other and go Seasteading for all of time with an aloof Northwestern tech billionaire, but I guess I have to pick a winner.  If the Falcons have a chance, it'll be because they take full advantage of Seattle's shoddy offensive line the way they did with the Broncos last week.  Totally not out of the question.  But squaring off with a rested Russell Wilson is a different kind of challenge than the fledgling Paxton Lynch.  I say the Legion of Boom temporarily grounds those Dirty Birds who still ought to run away with the dumb NFC South.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-8) - It's time to get out the marshmallows and graham crackers because the Colin Kaepernick hot take parade is going to shoot straight fire this weekend.  Whether the guy pulls a good Ryan Fitzpatrick or a bad Ryan Fitzpatrick on the quarterback spectrum, we can expect thinly constructed Rorschach interpretations of said game outcome and, if we're really lucky, a Hitler and/or Beyonce analogy to really round things out.  Anyway, that's all to say I think the Bills are good enough to keep the 49ers in the cellar, especially if Chip Kelly's going to keep trying to make his defense's lives a 80+ snap per game hell.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3) - Technically, these are some middle-of-the-pack teams, but to pick this game, I'm trying to sort out who I think is the bigger of two frauds (sorry, Giants and Ravens fans - you're still the best!)  They've gone a collective 1 - 5 since starting out the season 4 - 0, and the only arguably solid win in there was when the Giants eked by the rookie-led Cowboys in Week 1.  Baltimore's defense looks good enough to give Big Blue some problems, but I'm going to envision a world where Eli just airs it out until a couple footballs land in the outstretched arms of OBJ and friends.  There's room for error in putting up more points than the Ravens' struggling offense.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5) - Oh the Lions.  One minute they're losing to the Titans on a late fourth quarter drive, the next they're dropping the boom on a very good Eagles team.  I don't know what to think about this one at all.  What I do know is that the Rams weren't able to sustain that hot 3 - 1 start because they're the Rams.  And I'm guessing they could be a little flat footed at an early away game.  But keep an eye on Todd Gurley - he could have a big day against Detroit's rough ground defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9) - So the Bengals might just be headed for their first work-free January in six years.  There's always a chance that they'll come into this game swinging with a chip on their shoulder after last week's bell-to-bell drubbing in Dallas.  Counterpoint: they're playing a vengeful and well-rested Tom Brady in Foxborough.  These are odds only a mother could love.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) - The Cardinals got some redemption for their slow start in pummeling the 49ers last week.  Like the Packers-Cowboys rumble above, this one presents quite the  matchup between one-man wrecking ball David Johnson and a very good Jets run defense.  The problem is, there still aren't any answers for Gang Green's suddenly porous secondary, and the Cardinals have no qualms about chucking the ball to 4+ very dynamic receivers.  And Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't likely to turnaround that league-leading number of interceptions against Arizona's opportunistic defense.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Denver Broncos (-3) at San Diego Chargers - At the time of publication, it appears Trevor Siemian will get the start for the Broncos tonight, and that gives me a little more confidence that they can get back on track this week, as much as this Memphis girl would love to see Paxton Lynch succeed.  The Chargers are still such a fourth-quarter mess it's almost unfathomable.  And against a defense like Denver's, they just can't afford any mistakes here.  I don't see that happening.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7) - Imagine the plausibility of the Tennessee Titans going 8 - 8 and take the AFC South's paper Burger King crown.  The longest journey begins with a single step, and stepping on the poor, poor Browns should be one of the more painless tasks for a team with a good defense that likes throwing touchdowns to its tight ends.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at New Orleans Saints - Now is as good a time as any for the Saints to take advantage of a reeling Panthers team with a lot of questions in the secondary that just lost to the freakin' Buccaneers.  But I can barely trust the Saints defense in any circumstance, and they've been truly awful in the Superdome lately.  I'm staying in my emotionally protective cocoon of low expectations but hoping for the best against a division rival with a lot of schadenfreude coming to it.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5) - Wouldn't it be funny for the Bears if they lost to the Jaguars at home this week?  I'm thinking the fans won't care all that much if the Cubs keep challenging their history of postseason ineptitude.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins - The Ben Roethlisberger fantasy superhero tour looks to continue this week in Miami where the Dolphins just can't seem to do anything right.  Heck, I think most people would rather watch a Browns game than the Dolphins at this point.  At least Cleveland has that charming B-movie quality to it and has put up the good fight through four quarters most weeks.  Miami on the other hand seems content to turn Ryan Tannehill into pink mist by Week 7.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3) - After all of the NFL's handwringing over declining ratings, someone must really feel like a genius for putting this janky game in prime time on Sunday night. The Texans ought to win this game on the strength of their pass rush and the weakness of Indy's defense, but the Colts pretty much do the opposite of what I expect every week, so I'm blowing this pick on them.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 7, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Eagles -2.5 over Redskinks
• 49ers +8 over Bills
• Patriots -9 over Bengals

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 38 - 39
Against the Spread: 8 - 7

NFL Week 5 Picks

Much in the way of Odell Beckham and Darrelle Revis, I can't say I'm playing my best right now when it comes to awesome game picks.  But here you are, reading this for your amusement and/or to put your money on the exact opposite of whatever I say.  And so, loyal reader, all I can say is thank you for your continued patronage.  I don't say it enough here, but I genuinely appreciate your ongoing readership in good times and bad.  Now let's hug it out, wipe the slate clean and pick some Week 5 games!!!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-5.5) - Who wants to see the NFL's hottest offense try their hand against the nastiest defense this week?  I know I do in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  I will be legitimately but begrudgingly impressed with the Falcons if they can outduel Orange Crush 2.0 for four quarters at Mile High. But if you happened to check out my quarterly awards earlier this week, you already know that I'm skeptical that Atlanta can keep up those high-flying big plays against a much, much, much better defense than they've faced so far this year.

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) - Speaking of great defenses, it doesn't get much better than the Vikings, and the Texans aren't too far behind on that side of the ball either.  At some point, Minnesota is going to drop a game, and if Houston can keep Sam Bradford & co. out of the end zone, this game is a reasonable candidate.  But on the flip side, the Texans offense isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, and I think they are going to get ground down by the Vikings' physical style and ballhawking abilities once Brock Osweiler starts getting impatient.

New England Patriots (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns - By no means is this game on the top shelf for its competitive potential - though to be fair to the Browns, they've hung in there in their last three losses more than they'll get credit for.  But it's time to let the popcorn and touchdowns fly with a vengeful Tom Brady returning from suspension against the only winless team in the league.  You already know how this one ends.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Dallas Cowboys - One more Cowboys win this week, and we are headed for a full-blown quarterback controversy with Dak Prescott and Tony Romo.  At minimum, Dallas fans should rest easy that they might just have their most important position figured out for a while.  I've gone back and forth on this, and I keep thinking how much better the Bengals defense looked last week with the return of the loathed but effective Vontaze Burfict.  Cincy's might at the line of scrimmage could severely limit the Cowboys' running game this week and give Andy Dalton plenty of chances to put more points on the board.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - Could this be the week Odell Beckham gets out of his slump with a big-time Sunday night game?  One can hope.  You just get the feeling the Giants are going to have to start taking some frequent shots downfield to stay competitive, especially with this kind of offensive competition.  I'm not sold on Green Bay winning this one since New York has played spoiler to Aaron Rodgers' pocket often these past few years, but they don't look solid enough right now to go toe-to-toe with the Packers at home after a bye week.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) - Given how porous the Jets' secondary has gotten these days, I think we're in for another fireworks show at Heinz Field starring Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown.  It should be fun, and one of us morons will actually take Big Ben off of her fantasy team's bench this time around.  Don't you want to hear more about how my fantasy team is doing?  Yes, said no one ever.

Washington Redskinks at Baltimore Ravens (-4) - I am contractually obligated to call this the Battle of the Beltway with the hottest quarterback duel that will take place specifically in Baltimore at 1pm ET this week.  I'm still not real sure what to think about the Ravens.  There's no shame in losing to a good Raiders team, but they haven't had a convincing, dominant win yet this season.  My guess is that they'll keep the Redskinks emerging ground game in check and eke out another late go-ahead score with Washington's thin secondary reeling.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Detroit Lions - How 'bout them Eagles?  I couldn't be more stunned at how well they've done out of the gate this year against some solid competition.  They're just so balanced on both sides of the ball, and no one's cracked the code on Carson Wentz just yet.  Give me that any day over the rollercoaster that is the Lions offense.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) - I get that the Rams are 3 - 1, but I'm just not sure that I trust it.  Of course the Bills are an ever-mercurial weekly mystery box, but their defense is starting to come to form against some perennial heavies like the Cardinals and Patriots.  I'll take a chance on a Buffalo road win versus the "explosive" offensive talents of Case Keenum and Brian Quick.  How is this a thing?

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-3.5) - If ever there was a must-win situation for the Chargers, you're looking at it this week.  They'll pay a visit to their divisional foes in Oakland before embarking on a Broncos-Falcons-Broncos sandwich.  After their tremendously bad luck these past few weeks, it feels like something's gotta give for San Diego, but I just can't shake how much better the Raiders have been in late-game situations.  If this one goes down to the wire, give me Oakland all day.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Boy, the Cardinals have looked some kind of rough these first few weeks after a knockout 2015 season.  As important as Carson Palmer has been to this team in the Bruce Arian era, I think this offense will get a little addition by subtraction while Palmer sits out with a concussion this week.  He's already given up eight turnovers in four games, and backup Drew Stanton previously went a steady 5 - 3 as a starter back in 2014.  A steady 0.500 performance is all the Cardinals really need to keep the edge over the recovering 49ers... I hope.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) - I soooooo want to pick the Titans here on the strength of a good and possibly underrated defense, but I fear for Marcus Mariota's ability to evade the Dolphins' pass rush.  I see an ugly low-scoring slog here where Miami gets an opportune turnover or sack late in the fourth quarter.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) - Fun fact: did you know this game marks the first time an NFL team has played without a bye following a trip to London?  I sincerely thought there was a misprint when I looked through the schedule this week.  That seems downright insane to me, and I don't know why Jim Irsay isn't viciously subtweeting the NFL schedulers over it.  This is a risky pick, but I don't like those travel conditions, and I really don't like how rough Indy's defense has looked this year.  The Bears might have just enough in them to catch the Colts unawares with all that jet lag.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7) - Oy. What a craptacular NFC South matchup between two 1 - 3 teams that also happen to be tied for second place in the division.  If Cam Newton doesn't play on Monday, this could get even worse in terms of entertainment value.  Although Carolina's uncertainty at quarterback gives the Bucs a chance, I'll take Ron Rivera's coaching decisions 24-7 over Dirk "who needs those 4th quarter timeouts?" Koetter any time.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 5, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -10.5 over Browns
• Steelers -7 over Jets
• Eagles -3 over Lions

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 31 - 32
Against the Spread: 6 - 6

The First Quarter Lady Blitz NFL Awards

We are one month and a quarter of the way into the 2016 NFL season, and it sure looks a little different than you might have thought.  Both of last year's NFC Championship contenders are 1 - 3 while the four teams with brand new NFL starters under center are a combined 13 - 2.  We live in strange times, and they are worthy of some fake internet awards. Let's roll out the hardware!

The Guns and Butter Award: The Sam Bradford Trade
Anyone worth their salt will tell you it's still way too early in the season to evaluate whether the Eagles/Vikings Sam Bradford trade (or any offseason move, for that matter) was a success.  But given that these two teams are a combined 7 - 0 one month in, there's a pretty darn good early indicator that it was a good trade.  Both Bradford and Carson Wentz who replaced him in Philadelphia have passer ratings in the top ten and zero interceptions, and they have each notched wins against some good teams like the Packers, Steelers and Giants.  Bradford looks as good as he ever has so far behind a balanced running attack and a defense that gives the Vikings plenty of time and opportunities to put points on the board without much risk.  And Wentz has been a calm and collected rookie revelation in the Eagles new regime - he's accurate, he makes good decisions on the fly, and he isn't afraid to test defenses downfield.  We'll see if my very stout blogging jinx affects these guys when we check back in at mid-season, but for now, it's impossible to envision a better start for either team in a rare win-win quarterback trade.  Minor detail: I might also need to add an ancillary sentence about how good the defenses of Mike Zimmer and Jim Schwartz have been in taking the pressure off of Wentz and Bradford in their new environs.  Those Broncos might have been onto something last year.

The Most Likely Mid-Season Firing Award: Mike McCoy
Sure, Chuck Pagano is breathing down McCoy's neck on this one, but let's recount the ways the Chargers got to 1 - 3 this season despite leading every single game late in the fourth quarter.  1) Coughing up a 21-point halftime lead against the Chiefs; 2) Giving up a 63-yard touchdown pass with one minute left against the Colts; 3) Blowing a 13-point lead against the Saints with three consecutive fourth quarter turnovers including two fumbles inside their own 30 yardline.  McCoy steered the ship during San Diego's miserable, injury-riddled 4 - 12 campaign in 2015, so you can understand why he's been given another chance this year.  But with a better offensive line, a productive Melvin Gordon and an upgraded defense, there are no dividends to show after three very ugly, very winnable outings on the softer part of the Chargers' schedule.  Now they face the Broncos twice, the Raiders and the Falcons in the next four weeks.  It's not hard to see a scenario where McCoy is sent packing after an abysmal 1 - 7 start. 

The Not-So-Fast Award: Atlanta Falcons
After carving up the vaunted Panthers defense for 570 yards and 48 points on Sunday, heads are starting to turn toward the Falcons as an NFC frontrunner this season.  Matt Ryan has been playing out of his mind through these first four games - he already has 200 more passing yards than any other quarterback and a league-leading 126.3 passer rating.  But you might want to pump the breaks before you go ahead and crown Atlanta the new greatest show on turf.  I might be a bitter Saints fan, but history backs me up on this, lest we forget last season's massive collapse after a 6 - 0 start.  Over Ryan's career, he's had a solid 97.6 rating in the month of September, but he's shown a notable drop off in passer rating, touchdown passes, yards per attempt and interception rate from October onward nearly every year.  And there's the question of whether at least some of Atlanta's fortunes--especially on offense--are due to a very manageable early-season schedule.  They've played three mediocre to awful defenses in the Saints, Raiders and Buccaneers as well as that Panthers secondary that seemed to have no idea what it was doing for the majority of Sunday's game.  Over the next six weeks, Atlanta will face much, much better defensive competition from the Broncos, Seahawks, Packers and Eagles, so buyer beware.

The Cornerback Milk Carton Award: Carolina Panthers, New York Jets (tie)
Speaking of those lowly Carolina defensive backs, who would have thought that the second-best defense in the NFL from a year ago would allow 500 passing yards total and 300 yards to one Mr. Julio Jones?  Despite what I said earlier the Falcons are certainly a potent offense with a high ceiling, but it was just plain weird to watch the Panthers blow coverage after coverage on Sunday with missed assignments, bad decisions and eventually the kind of fatigue that comes with doing 50-yard sprints with Jones on every down.  The big headline is that Carolina is really regretting Josh Norman walk, and of course they knew they wouldn't stumble upon a draft or free agent goldmine with the same talent.  But the Panthers also look like they've fallen back to Earth in general so far this season - they're a bottom five team in points allowed, middling in sacks, and sporting a -3 turnover differential, which is in a whole 'nother ballpark from their +20 differential a year ago.  While we're here, can we just quickly talk about how Revis Island has quickly become a Revis Archipelago  Great Plain  Isthmus ... uh, how Darrelle Revis is finally becoming mortal and the Jets are giving up a league-worst 9.7 yards per pass attempt?  It doesn't help that Ryan Fitzpatrick has lost all short-term memory regarding his team's jersey colors, but if the Jets can't get it done on defense this year, they are cooked.  I'll stop picking them now so you can stop yelling at your phone/computer screen every week.

The Victim of an Obvious Voodoo Hex Award: Odell Beckham, Jr.
Finally, I'm genuinely sad to see Odell Beckham struggling right now.  I don't mean that in a hot take-mongering "distraction" kind of way.  I just mean he's so talented and fun to watch when he does all of those extraterrestrial things with his hands, and he hasn't yet figured out how to work through a slump. Beckham said as much after last night's stifling loss to a very good Vikings team.  Could it be that there's a J.J. Watt effect where every team is doubling up on him and taking him seriously these days?  Or that the white hot media spotlight and two incredibly hard-to-repeat Pro Bowl seasons are putting extra pressure on him?  I say none of the above.  You can pinpoint the moment when Beckham lost his mojo - Week 16 of the 2015 season against the Panthers and OBJ's arch-nemesis Josh Norman.  Beckham hasn't caught a single touchdown pass and has only broken 100 receiving yards once since that time.  You can call it a mental meltdown, but I know it was obviously a voodoo hex or monkey's paw or maybe both working against this otherworldly receiver outside of the known time-space continuum.  Alex Jones backs me up on this... probably.  Anyway, that's all to say I hope Beckham does some soul-searching on the steps of a Laotian temple or punches a bunch of frozen sides of beef like Rocky to find his mojo again.  The NFL is a much more boring place without it.