I should note that I ran out of time to do the usual this week - so enjoy these picks in lightning round format!
Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) - On perhaps the weakest weekly schedule yet, I guess I'll tap this game the Lady Blitz Game of the Week. Given how the Cardinals have picked up the pieces these past couple of weeks, it might actually be a pretty good intra-divisional battle. Here are my burning questions: will the Seahawks defense be as dominant without Kam Chancellor in tow and can the Cardinals actually beat a good team at this point given that their win streak has been against the lowly Jets and 49ers? Although I'd like to see Arizona take this game to keep things interesting in the NFC West, I'm not feeling great about Carson Palmer's prospects against Seattle's defense, Kam or no Kam.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles - Oh undefeated, hyper-balanced Eagles, we hardly knew ye. I still think this is still a decent team and hardly a cake walk for Minnesota, but Philly has struggled against the better teams it has faced. Plus the Vikings are coming off of a bye with a whole lot more game film on Carson Wentz than the Eagles' earlier competition had.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-8.5) - They don't do much well these days, but ESPN nailed this promo for Monday night's matchup between Brock Osweiler's Texans and his former team in Denver. I've picked the Broncos these past two weeks, and they've let me down. For one, their offensive line has been wet garbage, and that could come back to bite them against Houston's rock-solid defensive front. But I like Gary Kubiak being back to right the offensive ship and Denver having essentially a bye week to prepare since their last game on a Thursday night. And I just don't think the Broncos let this many missed tackles happen to bail Osweiler out of another underwhelming performance.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
New York Giants (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams - This feels like one of those coin flip picks, and we all know by now how these London games tend to throw a lot of confounding time zone- and haggis-related factors into the mix. I guess with the Rams starting to lose their footing in the secondary/pass rush and Odell Beckham heating up in a big way these past couple of weeks, I like the Giants' scoring edge here.
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) - So my Saints barely pulled it off last week after blowing a 21-point lead. That's the way of the world these days with Drew Brees putting up another 400+ yard, 4 touchdown beauty and barely winning by a field goal. The thing is, he hasn't been so good on the road in the past couple of years, and that won't get it done against a much more balanced Chiefs team at Arrowhead.
Washington Redskinks at Detroit Lions (-1.5) - Fun(ish) Fact: these two teams are nearly identical in points scored and points allowed per game. Here's what I think I know about the Redskinks: they can attribute some of their recent success to an improved ground game. They're averaging twice the rush yards per game in their wins as in their losses this year. And the Lions are without Haloti Ngata this week, which makes this issue a steeper hill to climb on defense. Just a hunch.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins - This could be a different kind of game than I envision if LeSean McCoy is out or at less than 100%. And the Dolphins' offense sure looked a lot better with Laremy Tunsil back in the fold last week. I dunno, I have a feeling I'll be disappointed, but I'm going Bills on the strength of their much-improved defense and Miami's struggles against run-heavy offenses.
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) - So my Saints barely pulled it off last week after blowing a 21-point lead. That's the way of the world these days with Drew Brees putting up another 400+ yard, 4 touchdown beauty and barely winning by a field goal. The thing is, he hasn't been so good on the road in the past couple of years, and that won't get it done against a much more balanced Chiefs team at Arrowhead.
Washington Redskinks at Detroit Lions (-1.5) - Fun(ish) Fact: these two teams are nearly identical in points scored and points allowed per game. Here's what I think I know about the Redskinks: they can attribute some of their recent success to an improved ground game. They're averaging twice the rush yards per game in their wins as in their losses this year. And the Lions are without Haloti Ngata this week, which makes this issue a steeper hill to climb on defense. Just a hunch.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins - This could be a different kind of game than I envision if LeSean McCoy is out or at less than 100%. And the Dolphins' offense sure looked a lot better with Laremy Tunsil back in the fold last week. I dunno, I have a feeling I'll be disappointed, but I'm going Bills on the strength of their much-improved defense and Miami's struggles against run-heavy offenses.
San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) - Who's ready for a wild and crazy shootout? I gotta say, for all of my flack thrown to the Chargers last week, their defense looks a whole lot better with Joey Bosa finally taking the field. But I can't put any more caveats into how good the Falcons' offense is. If the Legion of Boom barely survived these guys on a bogus PI no-call last week, I don't see how the Chargers do it better this week in the Georgia Dome.
New England Patriots (-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers - Dang it, Ben Roethlisberger. Not only have you burned my fantasy prospects to the ground, you had your annual poorly timed injury to ruin the chances of this game being one of the best of the regular season. The Steelers can still weather most of the storm in Ben's absence as they've done in years past, but not this week against the Scorched Earth Patriots of 2016.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9) - Let the social media record show I picked the Packers to win on Thursday. 1 - 0 baby! Now I get to just sit back and watch my rock solid picks take me to 7 - 8 again.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3) - It is the Titans' way to lay an egg at home after showing signs of life, and the Colts are deep in desperation mode at this point in the season. So I wouldn't put a dime on this game. But if we're just talking matchups, Tennessee's offense is thriving on a resurgent running game with DeMarco Murray, and the Colts' ground defense looks something like this. (Can you tell I think that was a really, really bad play for Indy last week?)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10) - This just in: the Browns are still Browns-ing.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) - Could this be an early east coast trap game for the Raiders? It wouldn't totally surprise me, but Oakland still looks like a sturdy 9- to 10-win team on the rise that hasn't given up a bad loss yet this season.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-2) - The Geno Smith rebirth is finally upon us! By no means is he the long-term answer for the Jets, but he might give this offense a shot in the arm after all of those soul-crushing Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions this year. Counterpoint: that Jets secondary might make Joe Flacco look ultra-elite on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) at San Francisco 49ers - I don't think the Niners' stadium attendance problems are going to get any better this week with a stinker of a matchup. I can't say I feel great about either team's prospects, but the Bucs get Doug Martin back after their bye to shred the 49ers' puny run defense. That might be enough to get the job done in a presumably desolate Santa Clara arena.
Lovely Lady Locks
Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 7, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Texans +8.5 over Broncos
- Browns +10 over Bengals
- Raiders +1 over Jaguars
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 47 - 45
Against the Spread: 9 - 9
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