NFL Week 6 Picks

If there's a benefit to my season-long face plant on these here picks, at least I can now pick against the Cubs for the next 4 - 14 games in hope of jinxing them out of a 108-year championship slump.  With great power comes great responsibility to pretend you have any cosmic sway over the curse of the goat from your armchair in Memphis.  Anyway, I'm going to shake things up a bit with my methodology this week to see if I can at least outfox Skip Bayless at this point.  And if not, like the Browns say, there's always next week!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) - Might we be gearing up for an NFC playoff preview in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week?  I know Dez Bryant will be eating his Wheaties to get back on the field and hopefully avenge the Dez Caught It Bowl in January.  After watching Dallas grind their opponents down with a bend-don't-break defense and a hype-justified debut for Ezekiel Elliott these last few weeks, they definitely have a chance here if they can bend the Packers to their slow, physical style.  But if there's something to be concerned about (other than Aaron Rodgers), it's Green Bay's defense, which has held opposing rushers to less than 43 (!) yards per game.  That could be quite the recipe for disaster and a rare Dak Prescott turnover if the Cowboys can't diversify their offensive attack.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Washington Redskinks - Next up, the Eagles and Redskinks have some divisional positioning to sort out in their first head-to-head this season. Although the teams of the NFC East never cease to perplex me, I'm going to go with my instinct that the Eagles are still pretty good and well-balanced while the Redskinks have benefited greatly from hapless competition during their current winning streak.  In sum though, no matter which one of these teams I pick, this is a Schrodinger's cat deal where they've already lost before the game ever started.  Deep Thoughts with Lady Blitz.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (PK) - With the Broncos taking a step back last week, the AFC West is still very much in play for just about everyone.  Oh wait, not the Chargers.  Definitely not the Chargers.  Anyway, the Raiders have played just about as well as anyone could have expected - their only loss so far has been against the surprisingly good Falcons.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been all kinds of up and down, having last played a real stinker against the Steelers in primetime.  I'm positive this pick will come back to bite me, but I'm taking a chance on the Chiefs given the return of Jamaal Charles and Andy Reid's crazy-good 15 - 2 record following a bye week to this point.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) - Dang it, Falcons!  Why do you have to go and be good in a tough road game so that I can't make fun of you without sounding like a petty buffoon?  We got ourselves a bird fight this week between the league's best offense and a truly dynastic defense.  As far as this Saints fan is concerned, these two teams can double-TKO each other and go Seasteading for all of time with an aloof Northwestern tech billionaire, but I guess I have to pick a winner.  If the Falcons have a chance, it'll be because they take full advantage of Seattle's shoddy offensive line the way they did with the Broncos last week.  Totally not out of the question.  But squaring off with a rested Russell Wilson is a different kind of challenge than the fledgling Paxton Lynch.  I say the Legion of Boom temporarily grounds those Dirty Birds who still ought to run away with the dumb NFC South.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-8) - It's time to get out the marshmallows and graham crackers because the Colin Kaepernick hot take parade is going to shoot straight fire this weekend.  Whether the guy pulls a good Ryan Fitzpatrick or a bad Ryan Fitzpatrick on the quarterback spectrum, we can expect thinly constructed Rorschach interpretations of said game outcome and, if we're really lucky, a Hitler and/or Beyonce analogy to really round things out.  Anyway, that's all to say I think the Bills are good enough to keep the 49ers in the cellar, especially if Chip Kelly's going to keep trying to make his defense's lives a 80+ snap per game hell.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3) - Technically, these are some middle-of-the-pack teams, but to pick this game, I'm trying to sort out who I think is the bigger of two frauds (sorry, Giants and Ravens fans - you're still the best!)  They've gone a collective 1 - 5 since starting out the season 4 - 0, and the only arguably solid win in there was when the Giants eked by the rookie-led Cowboys in Week 1.  Baltimore's defense looks good enough to give Big Blue some problems, but I'm going to envision a world where Eli just airs it out until a couple footballs land in the outstretched arms of OBJ and friends.  There's room for error in putting up more points than the Ravens' struggling offense.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5) - Oh the Lions.  One minute they're losing to the Titans on a late fourth quarter drive, the next they're dropping the boom on a very good Eagles team.  I don't know what to think about this one at all.  What I do know is that the Rams weren't able to sustain that hot 3 - 1 start because they're the Rams.  And I'm guessing they could be a little flat footed at an early away game.  But keep an eye on Todd Gurley - he could have a big day against Detroit's rough ground defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9) - So the Bengals might just be headed for their first work-free January in six years.  There's always a chance that they'll come into this game swinging with a chip on their shoulder after last week's bell-to-bell drubbing in Dallas.  Counterpoint: they're playing a vengeful and well-rested Tom Brady in Foxborough.  These are odds only a mother could love.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) - The Cardinals got some redemption for their slow start in pummeling the 49ers last week.  Like the Packers-Cowboys rumble above, this one presents quite the  matchup between one-man wrecking ball David Johnson and a very good Jets run defense.  The problem is, there still aren't any answers for Gang Green's suddenly porous secondary, and the Cardinals have no qualms about chucking the ball to 4+ very dynamic receivers.  And Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't likely to turnaround that league-leading number of interceptions against Arizona's opportunistic defense.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Denver Broncos (-3) at San Diego Chargers - At the time of publication, it appears Trevor Siemian will get the start for the Broncos tonight, and that gives me a little more confidence that they can get back on track this week, as much as this Memphis girl would love to see Paxton Lynch succeed.  The Chargers are still such a fourth-quarter mess it's almost unfathomable.  And against a defense like Denver's, they just can't afford any mistakes here.  I don't see that happening.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7) - Imagine the plausibility of the Tennessee Titans going 8 - 8 and take the AFC South's paper Burger King crown.  The longest journey begins with a single step, and stepping on the poor, poor Browns should be one of the more painless tasks for a team with a good defense that likes throwing touchdowns to its tight ends.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at New Orleans Saints - Now is as good a time as any for the Saints to take advantage of a reeling Panthers team with a lot of questions in the secondary that just lost to the freakin' Buccaneers.  But I can barely trust the Saints defense in any circumstance, and they've been truly awful in the Superdome lately.  I'm staying in my emotionally protective cocoon of low expectations but hoping for the best against a division rival with a lot of schadenfreude coming to it.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5) - Wouldn't it be funny for the Bears if they lost to the Jaguars at home this week?  I'm thinking the fans won't care all that much if the Cubs keep challenging their history of postseason ineptitude.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins - The Ben Roethlisberger fantasy superhero tour looks to continue this week in Miami where the Dolphins just can't seem to do anything right.  Heck, I think most people would rather watch a Browns game than the Dolphins at this point.  At least Cleveland has that charming B-movie quality to it and has put up the good fight through four quarters most weeks.  Miami on the other hand seems content to turn Ryan Tannehill into pink mist by Week 7.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3) - After all of the NFL's handwringing over declining ratings, someone must really feel like a genius for putting this janky game in prime time on Sunday night. The Texans ought to win this game on the strength of their pass rush and the weakness of Indy's defense, but the Colts pretty much do the opposite of what I expect every week, so I'm blowing this pick on them.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 7, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Eagles -2.5 over Redskinks
• 49ers +8 over Bills
• Patriots -9 over Bengals

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 38 - 39
Against the Spread: 8 - 7