Joy of Joys!!!! Opposite Day in the world of NFL referees is over! The lockout (though not officially over) looks all but certain to come to a formal close on Friday and so we can get back to booing with integrity in tact. Here are my Week 4 picks for every NFL game, though I might be losing an edge without our beleaguered substitute friends (see record in footnote):
Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Here's your Lady Blitz Game of the Week as we try to collect ourselves after a bananas Week 3 in the NFL. The Giants-Eagles rivalry is a classic and a box of chocolates--you just never know what you're gonna get out of these two teams. Given that the Giants look vastly improved from Week 1 with extra rest while Philly's turnover follies finally caught up with them in Arizona, I like the Giants in a close one here.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
This one ought to come down to how the Bears offensive line holds up against a stout Cowboys defense. Cutler & co. seem to have sorted some things out since getting pummeled in Green Bay two weeks ago while Dallas proved more than capable in spite of its offensive shortcomings against the Bucs in Week 3. All things considered, I think the Bears have the edge if Jay Cutler can turn any Dallas turnover opportunities into points instead of pouts.
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
It's not often I'd consider putting two teams with losing records on the Top Shelf, but both the Redskins and the Buccaneers show early promise despite the scores on paper. While the Bucs may be one of the most opportunistic squads in the NFL so far in 2012, Robert Griffin looks wise beyond his years as a rookie quarterback. If the 'Skins can limit mistakes and come out guns a blazin' at Raymond James, this one goes to Washington.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Speaking of opposing teams with "losing" records (quotations for GB only), I debated about putting this game in the Well Drink bucket given that neither the Saints nor the Packers look much like the offensive powerhouses they were a season ago. Consider this my fleeting blind faith in any given Sunday. While we could have ourselves a nice sloppy shootout for the ages, I suspect that the Saints are in for a Lambeau spanking. Despite a short, very rough week for the Packers, you can't ask for better motivation than that Monday night officiating debacle to get Green Bay back on track with still-winless New Orleans in the line of fire. Then there's that Saints defense...
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at New York Jets
Call it a slow week in NFL competition. This too just made the cut as a Top Shelf game despite the season-ending injury for All Pro CB Darrelle Revis in Week 3. Don't let the 2 - 1 record fool you, the Jets are going to have to fight for their playoff lives every week from here on out. Unfortunately, desperation and Mark Sanchez don't play well together. The 49ers should rebound nicely with a good old-fashioned defensive grind at the Meadowlands after that shocker in Minnesota last week.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
New England Patriots (-4) at Buffalo Bills
Fun Fact: The Pats haven't had a sub-.500 record at any point in a season since 2003. Now they find themselves 1 - 2 going against a Buffalo team that seems to be getting its bearings quite nicely, C. J. Spiller's injury aside. Nevertheless, even if Spiller were a lock for this Sunday, Bill Belichick absolutely will not let a third consecutive game slip away from his talented New England squad even if he has to shank a zebra for it.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7)
If I had to bet which team would go undefeated the longest in 2012, I would unquestioningly pick the Atlanta Falcons. Given my own team loyalties, I'd also be happy to jinx the Dirty Birds into a nose dive with my praise, but from a point of total neutrality they have been fantastic in all phases so far this year. The Panthers on the other hand have a lot to prove in the early season, but more rest and less travel could serve as enough of an equalizer to prevent this from being a total Falcons rout. Atlanta will still have this win pretty handily though.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
I've gone back and forth with this one a great deal during the editing process. We've got a Chargers team that was killing it until they played a real contender in the Falcons last week and a Chiefs team that finally showed some fight against the Saints after being shellacked by better teams for the first two weeks. Unless Jamaal Charles has another exceptional day against a much better defense, however, I consider these teams' Week 3 reversals of fortune to be temporary. The Chargers should squeak by in KC this time.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at St. Louis Rams
In case we've all [understandably] suffered traumatic amnesia after Monday night's disaster in Seattle, for the other 59:56 minutes of the game the Seahawks proved to be the stuff of nightmares for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense. I loved it. To this point, the Rams are playing better than expected in my eyes, but Sam Bradford is about as likely to overcome that mean Seattle defense as Rodger Goodell is likely to overcome being an unapologetic ass.
Peyton's new place is off to a rocky start after two straight weeks of failing to overcome deep early deficits. Conversely, the Raiders somehow clawed their way past the Steelers last week after trailing by 10 in the 4th quarter. Will this be the week No. 18 gets back on the horse and back to 0.500? Against the more historically inept Raiders, I think so.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5)
In Week 1, I said that the Vikings-Jaguars matchup would be the last time either team would have a winning record. The Vikings' big upset over the 49ers last week put a wrench in that machine, at least temporarily, but CB Christian Ponder is having a really nice year on the whole so far to atone for deficiencies elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Lions are looking pretty rudderless, unbalanced and potentially without Matt Stafford (or at least a healthy Matt Stafford) in Week 4. Signs point to another Minnesota upset in my book. P.S., Every time I see Christian Ponder's head shot, I can only think, "This Guy":
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-12)
After a couple of decently billed Thursday night games (which I generally hate the idea of), we're ready to regress into the mediocre and the mismatched for a spell. While I will maintain that Cleveland's closer to a win than people might think, going to visit the Ravens after their emotional Sunday night victory is not going to end well for the Browns.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The Cardinals might have a slight drop in competitive advantage now that their opponents know to take this surprising 3 - 0 team seriously, but the Dolphins don't appear to have the chops to do more than lose seriously at the moment. Especially with Reggie Bush out or at less than 100%.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Thanks to the Jaguars' 11th hour win in Indy, I'm another game ahead in my picking record after three weeks. But it's time to put the Jaguars back in their cage against a more consistent Cincy team flying under the radar to get an important road win.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-12)
Tennessee caught a much needed break last weekend with the help of Detroit's bewildering play-calling in overtime, but they're about to get the horns in Houston. Even Matt Schaub can hear the rout a comin'.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6*
Season Record: 28 - 20*
*Yes, I am including the Seahawks "win" among my spoils. Were I more selfless like the bookies who actually refunded bettors who picked the Packers on Monday, this might read 9 - 6, but with so many games being sabotaged by well-intentioned incompetence, why bother trying to adjust for "true" wins in Weeks 1 - 3? A big welcome back to Ed Hochuli and his Hulk Hands!
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