Week 4 Picks for Every NFL Game

Joy of Joys!!!! Opposite Day in the world of NFL referees is over!  The lockout (though not officially over) looks all but certain to come to a formal close on Friday and so we can get back to booing with integrity in tact.  Here are my Week 4 picks for every NFL game, though I might be losing an edge without our beleaguered substitute friends (see record in footnote):

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Here's your Lady Blitz Game of the Week as we try to collect ourselves after a bananas Week 3 in the NFL.  The Giants-Eagles rivalry is a classic and a box of chocolates--you just never know what you're gonna get out of these two teams.  Given that the Giants look vastly improved from Week 1 with extra rest while Philly's turnover follies finally caught up with them in Arizona, I like the Giants in a close one here.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
This one ought to come down to how the Bears offensive line holds up against a stout Cowboys defense.  Cutler & co. seem to have sorted some things out since getting pummeled in Green Bay two weeks ago while Dallas proved more than capable in spite of its offensive shortcomings against the Bucs in Week 3.  All things considered, I think the Bears have the edge if Jay Cutler can turn any Dallas turnover opportunities into points instead of pouts.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
It's not often I'd consider putting two teams with losing records on the Top Shelf, but both the Redskins and the Buccaneers show early promise despite the scores on paper.  While the Bucs may be one of the most opportunistic squads in the NFL so far in 2012, Robert Griffin looks wise beyond his years as a rookie quarterback.  If the 'Skins can limit mistakes and come out guns a blazin' at Raymond James, this one goes to Washington.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Speaking of opposing teams with "losing" records (quotations for GB only), I debated about putting this game in the Well Drink bucket given that neither the Saints nor the Packers look much like the offensive powerhouses they were a season ago.  Consider this my fleeting blind faith in any given Sunday.  While we could have ourselves a nice sloppy shootout for the ages, I suspect that the Saints are in for a Lambeau spanking.  Despite a short, very rough week for the Packers, you can't ask for better motivation than that Monday night officiating debacle to get Green Bay back on track with still-winless New Orleans in the line of fire.  Then there's that Saints defense...

San Francisco 49ers (-4) at New York Jets
Call it a slow week in NFL competition.  This too just made the cut as a Top Shelf game despite the season-ending injury for All Pro CB Darrelle Revis in Week 3.  Don't let the 2 - 1 record fool you, the Jets are going to have to fight for their playoff lives every week from here on out.  Unfortunately, desperation and Mark Sanchez don't play well together.  The 49ers should rebound nicely with a good old-fashioned defensive grind at the Meadowlands after that shocker in Minnesota last week.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New England Patriots (-4) at Buffalo Bills
Fun Fact: The Pats haven't had a sub-.500 record at any point in a season since 2003.  Now they find themselves 1 - 2 going against a Buffalo team that seems to be getting its bearings quite nicely, C. J. Spiller's injury aside.  Nevertheless, even if Spiller were a lock for this Sunday, Bill Belichick absolutely will not let a third consecutive game slip away from his talented New England squad even if he has to shank a zebra for it.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7)
If I had to bet which team would go undefeated the longest in 2012, I would unquestioningly pick the Atlanta Falcons.  Given my own team loyalties, I'd also be happy to jinx the Dirty Birds into a nose dive with my praise, but from a point of total neutrality they have been fantastic in all phases so far this year.  The Panthers on the other hand have a lot to prove in the early season, but more rest and less travel could serve as enough of an equalizer to prevent this from being a total Falcons rout.  Atlanta will still have this win pretty handily though.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
I've gone back and forth with this one a great deal during the editing process.  We've got a Chargers team that was killing it until they played a real contender in the Falcons last week and a Chiefs team that finally showed some fight against the Saints after being shellacked by better teams for the first two weeks.  Unless Jamaal Charles has another exceptional day against a much better defense, however, I consider these teams' Week 3 reversals of fortune to be temporary.  The Chargers should squeak by in KC this time.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at St. Louis Rams
In case we've all [understandably] suffered traumatic amnesia after Monday night's disaster in Seattle, for the other 59:56 minutes of the game the Seahawks proved to be the stuff of nightmares for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.  I loved it. To this point, the Rams are playing better than expected in my eyes, but Sam Bradford is about as likely to overcome that mean Seattle defense as Rodger Goodell is likely to overcome being an unapologetic ass.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Peyton's new place is off to a rocky start after two straight weeks of failing to overcome deep early deficits.  Conversely, the Raiders somehow clawed their way past the Steelers last week after trailing by 10 in the 4th quarter.  Will this be the week No. 18 gets back on the horse and back to 0.500?  Against the more historically inept Raiders, I think so.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5)
In Week 1, I said that the Vikings-Jaguars matchup would be the last time either team would have a winning record.  The Vikings' big upset over the 49ers last week put a wrench in that machine, at least temporarily, but CB Christian Ponder is having a really nice year on the whole so far to atone for deficiencies elsewhere.  Meanwhile, the Lions are looking pretty rudderless, unbalanced and potentially without Matt Stafford (or at least a healthy Matt Stafford) in Week 4.  Signs point to another Minnesota upset in my book.  P.S., Every time I see Christian Ponder's head shot, I can only think, "This Guy":

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-12)
After a couple of decently billed Thursday night games (which I generally hate the idea of), we're ready to regress into the mediocre and the mismatched for a spell.  While I will maintain that Cleveland's closer to a win than people might think, going to visit the Ravens after their emotional Sunday night victory is not going to end well for the Browns.

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  The Cardinals might have a slight drop in competitive advantage now that their opponents know to take this surprising 3 - 0 team seriously, but the Dolphins don't appear to have the chops to do more than lose seriously at the moment.  Especially with Reggie Bush out or at less than 100%.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Thanks to the Jaguars' 11th hour win in Indy, I'm another game ahead in my picking record after three weeks.  But it's time to put the Jaguars back in their cage against a more consistent Cincy team flying under the radar to get an important road win.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-12)
Tennessee caught a much needed break last weekend with the help of Detroit's bewildering play-calling in overtime, but they're about to get the horns in Houston.  Even Matt Schaub can hear the rout a comin'.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6*
Season Record: 28 - 20*

*Yes, I am including the Seahawks "win" among my spoils.  Were I more selfless like the bookies who actually refunded bettors who picked the Packers on Monday, this might read 9 - 6, but with so many games being sabotaged by well-intentioned incompetence, why bother trying to adjust for "true" wins in Weeks 1 - 3?  A big welcome back to Ed Hochuli and his Hulk Hands!

Week 3 Recap and How the Referee Lockout Could End

***Blogger's Note: I published this post about an hour before the Packers-Seahawks game ended, and wow.  To annotate the contents below, the Bad Stuff is obvious and the Week 3 Feature is all too appropos.  For the Good Stuff, it doesn't get classier than how the Packers dealt with an awful call in the moment.  They went back out on the field for a meaningless extra point despite clearly being furious, and Mike McCarthy/Aaron Rodgers handled their press conferences way better than could be expected or justified.***


Man oh man, what a week for Futbol Americano.  Upsets, last minute go-aheads, three simultaneous games in overtime and ever-suspect officiating across the board.  Hold on to your purse strings, Bill Belichick.  As a Saints fan, I can only say, "Le Sigh" at this point, but as a football fan in general, I am thrilled with the turbulence we're experiencing from one week to the next because it means we're in for one of the wildest seasons in the modern era.

Here's your Week 3 Recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: How the Referee Lockout Could End in Four [Unlikely] Scenarios.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 3: The Good Stuff

• Torrey Smith's Bittersweet Day - It is difficult to write about something like Ravens WR Torrey Smith's exceptional performance on Sunday night--mere hours after he found out his brother was killed in a motorcycle accident--without sounding like either a tunnel-visioned sports statistician or a cloying armchair psychoanalyst.  There is no denying that Smith and his family will continue to bear heavy hearts over their loss for a very long time far outweighing the impact of any game, but the emotional resilience that he showed on the field is the stuff of legends.  
• How 'Bout Them Cardinals? - I deserve no credit for this, but in the first draft of my Week 3 picks, I had Arizona over Philly and then figured that their then 9 - 2 run was just too good to be true *when* the Eagles finally cleaned up their mistakes.  No more.  The Cardinals look like NFC dark horses that are now battle-tested against two heavy playoff favorites.  It's still hard to say whether their style is sustainable for another 13 games, but stay tuned for some excellent upcoming divisional clashes with apparent doppelganger San Francisco.  On a related note, the September Surprise honorable mention goes to the Minnesota Vikings who out-49ered the 49ers at the Metrodome through four quarters this weekend.  One day, I'll be able to throw in an "any given Sunday" clause without thinking of Al Pacino or gratuitous bloody eyeballs.

• Nailed It!: My Best Prediction of the Week - Another week above .500 in the pickings is good enough for me.  This is a close call since I also had Atlanta and Cincy against the odds, but I'm giving a shout out to winless-no-more Jacksonville against Andrew Luck the Wonderboy:
• "This one is obviously a little bit of a gamble, but the Jaguars have a vastly underrated defense unlike the Colts.  watching Andrew Luck's challenges against the Steelers (preseason) and Bears earlier this year suggest to me that this game is within reach for Jacksonville with enough willpower and very few mistakes on offense."

Week 3: The Bad Stuff
This whole section is dedicated to ugly collapses in Week 3.  Misery loves company and how.  We saw several snakebit teams suffer some ugly late-game collapses on Sunday that they won't soon forget, especially when January rolls around:

• First, there was the chip-shot-that-wasn't when the Lions "undecided" to go for it on 4th down on Titans' 7-yardline when a field goal would have guaranteed at least a tie.  Jim Schwarz may claim there was a miscommunication amidst the chaos, but putting your team into a very unnecessary sudden death situation after a timeout doesn't pass the sniff test.  I suspect that someone on high gave the Lions that gun with which to shoot themselves in the foot.
• Then, there was Dolphins' coach Joe Philbin icing the Jets kicker in overtime... except that he ended up icing his own team's would-be game-clinching blocked field goal, a move that eventually allowed the Jets to go ahead for good.

• There were also the New Orleans Saints, who just cannot catch a break to save their season.  Despite working up to a 21-6 lead in the 3rd quarter with a 3+ turnover margin over the Chiefs, we saw a bogus TD reversal for Pierre Thomas, a botched Garrett Hartley field goal in short yardage, yet another untimely Drew Brees interception, a safety against the Saints, and a 91-yard TD run for KC during which Jamaal Charles was virtually untouched.  I sure hope Aaron Kromer is raking in a ton of cash somewhere in Vegas because you really have to go out of your way to screw something this easy up in those proportions.
• Finally, there were the Pittsburgh Steelers who had a 20 point lead going into the 4th quarter against a pretty tame Raiders squad and somehow managed to cough the whole thing up under the watch of the Steelers' "elite" defense in less than 15 minutes.  Yowza.
• Shanked It!: My Worst Prediction of the Week: It's a bit obvious, but I definitely didn't see a Vikings victory in the cards this past weekend.  Bonus points for jinxing Randy Moss into having a karmic kind of day in Minnesota:
• "I can't think of many teams that are further apart on the spectrum of contenders and pretenders than the 49ers and the Vikings, respectively.  It's going to be an NFC bloodbath at the Metrodome on Sunday.  Of course, what kind of karma is it that Randy Moss is suddenly good again?"

Week 3 Feature: How the Referee Lockout Could End in Four [Unlikely] Scenarios
There's no need--or way--to sugarcoat it, the replacement refs are looking just about as effective as Tim Tebow's arm these days.  I've played out a few scenarios in my mind about how this thing ends, and well, it ain't too pretty.  Here's how the referee strike could end four ways, betting lines included: 

1) The Replacements Blow a Call So Monumental, It Clearly Throws the Outcome of the Game - 256: 1 - That's right, it could take all 256 games of this regular season, officiating consistency and integrity thrown completely out the window, before the Commish decides to loosen the purse strings for the good of the Playoffs Gods.  Why?  Because the number of games whose outcomes have already been clearly, directly impacted is nearing double-digits or maybe more than that if you believe in things like momentum and cause and effect having an impact on this thing we call football.  Ginger Badger don't care.  Will fans and the media keep hounding the NFL to scatter a few fractions of a percent more to the zebras to keep all that is good and holy about the game in tact?  Absolutely.  Will we stop watching any games in the meantime?  Absolutely not.  Advantage, Goodell.

 2) The Replacements Let Dirty Play Descend Into Chaos, Resulting in an Unforgivable On-Field Injury - 1,000: 1 - Some would argue we've sadly already seen this scenario in action too, most notably with the no-call helmet-too-helmet hit that sent Oakland's Darrius Heyward-Bey to the hospital on a gurney this weekend.  Unlike some league overlords I know, I'm not going to make some sort of accusatory speculation about how their management decisions have trickled down into extraordinary player-to-player violence that would magically not otherwise occur.  That would be a stretch (wink wink, nudge nudge).  But here's the thing, Rodger Goodell is definitely not about to make any kind of concession that he is contributing to the very player safety issue he's in the legal crosshairs for already.  Especially not after his player bounty sanctions were overturned and a layer of scapegoating was at least temporarily removed in a very embarrassing way.  It ain't gonna happen. 

3) A Coach Finally Punches a Replacement in the Face, and the Crowd Goes Wild - 50:1 - It seems we're getting closer and closer each week to a total meltdown on the sidelines to this abysmally inconsistent play calling.  I thought the vocal stylings of John Fox/Jack Del Rio last Monday night were bad, but then we nearly saw Bill Belichick leave Baltimore in the back of a squad car after Sunday night's Patriots loss on a nanometer of field goal post.  Most rational people on Tuesday through Saturday would probably be able to sympathize with these poor replacement officials who are doing their less-than-qualified best with no thanks from the bullies on the sidelines.  But when the game is on the line, mark my words, someone in a striped shirt is eventually going to get punched to atone for the sins of many.  And the crowd is going to freakin' love it.  And then we'll have to deal with our loss of humanity as a society and reinstate the real referees. 

4) The Baltimore Cheer Catches On and TV Sponsorship Takes A Nose Dive  - 10:1 - If there was one mischievous but enjoyable outgrowth of the Patriots-Ravens game last night, it had to be that five-figure-strong crowd chanting obscenities in unison for several minutes to the consternation of TV censors everywhere.  Now I might be crazy, but I think that those Ravens fans are really on to something here.  If the NFL has made it clear that the top brass has zero interest in putting aside its ruthless avarice for the love of the game or the safety of its players, and we won't stop watching anyway, and we don't want to see a poor economy class referee get a black eye from a Belichick or a Harbaugh, we have got to start making this stuff [temporarily] inappropriate for television.  Let the sponsors sort out our wholesome Sunday family pastime.  If you're reading this and you'll be anywhere near the vicinity of an NFL stadium this week, take a page from George Carlin and shout those seven words with every ounce of passion you have for this sport!  For to save football in the referee lockout era, first you must destroy it.

Four Ways the NFL Referee Lockout Could Finally End

***Blogger's Note: I published this puppy about an hour before the end of the Packers-Seahawks game last night.  In all sincerity, I can't imagine anything but scenario #1 happening, but don't get your hopes up because it's going to be a looooooong process.  In the meantime, how about a little satire?***

Week 3 Feature: How the Referee Lockout Could End in Four [Unlikely] Scenarios
There's no need--or way--to sugarcoat it, the replacement refs are looking just about as effective as Tim Tebow's arm these days.  I've played out a few scenarios in my mind about how this thing ends, and well, it ain't too pretty.  Here's how the referee strike could end four ways, betting lines included: 

1) The Replacements Blow a Call So Monumental, It Clearly Throws the Outcome of the Game - 256: 1 - That's right, it could take all 256 games of this regular season, officiating consistency and integrity thrown completely out the window, before the Commish decides to loosen the purse strings for the good of the Playoffs Gods.  Why?  Because the number of games whose outcomes have already been clearly, directly impacted is nearing double-digits or maybe more than that if you believe in things like momentum and cause and effect having an impact on this thing we call football.  Ginger Badger don't care.  Will fans and the media keep hounding the NFL to scatter a few fractions of a percent more to the zebras to keep all that is good and holy about the game in tact?  Absolutely.  Will we stop watching any games in the meantime?  Absolutely not.  Advantage, Goodell.

 2) The Replacements Let Dirty Play Descend Into Chaos, Resulting in an Unforgivable On-Field Injury - 1,000: 1 - Some would argue we've sadly already seen this scenario in action too, most notably with the no-call helmet-too-helmet hit that sent Oakland's Darrius Heyward-Bey to the hospital on a gurney this weekend.  Unlike some league overlords I know, I'm not going to make some sort of accusatory speculation about how their management decisions have trickled down into extraordinary player-to-player violence that would magically not otherwise occur.  That would be a stretch (wink wink, nudge nudge).  But here's the thing, Rodger Goodell is definitely not about to make any kind of concession that he is contributing to the very player safety issue he's in the legal crosshairs for already.  Especially not after his player bounty sanctions were overturned and a layer of scapegoating was at least temporarily removed in a very embarrassing way.  It ain't gonna happen. 

3) A Coach Finally Punches a Replacement in the Face, and the Crowd Goes Wild - 50:1 - It seems we're getting closer and closer each week to a total meltdown on the sidelines to this abysmally inconsistent play calling.  I thought the vocal stylings of John Fox/Jack Del Rio last Monday night were bad, but then we nearly saw Bill Belichick leave Baltimore in the back of a squad car after Sunday night's Patriots loss on a nanometer of field goal post.  Most rational people on Tuesday through Saturday would probably be able to sympathize with these poor replacement officials who are doing their less-than-qualified best with no thanks from the bullies on the sidelines.  But when the game is on the line, mark my words, someone in a striped shirt is eventually going to get punched to atone for the sins of many.  And the crowd is going to freakin' love it.  And then we'll have to deal with our loss of humanity as a society and reinstate the real referees. 

4) The Baltimore Cheer Catches On and TV Sponsorship Takes A Nose Dive  - 10:1 - If there was one mischievous but enjoyable outgrowth of the Patriots-Ravens game last night, it had to be that five-figure-strong crowd chanting obscenities in unison for several minutes to the consternation of TV censors everywhere.  Now I might be crazy, but I think that those Ravens fans are really on to something here.  If the NFL has made it clear that the top brass has zero interest in putting aside its ruthless avarice for the love of the game or the safety of its players, and we won't stop watching anyway, and we don't want to see a poor economy class referee get a black eye from a Belichick or a Harbaugh, we have got to start making this stuff [temporarily] inappropriate for television.  Let the sponsors sort out our wholesome Sunday family pastime.  If you're reading this and you'll be anywhere near the vicinity of an NFL stadium this week, take a page from George Carlin and shout those seven words with every ounce of passion you have for this sport!  For to save football in the referee lockout era, first you must destroy it.

Week 3 Picks for Every NFL Game

The League of Parity will march on in Week 3.  Mathematically speaking, there can only be a maximum four undefeated teams after Sunday since four 2 - 0 teams will face off in Top Shelf games.  Meanwhile on the 0 - 2 teams side, only the Saints or Chiefs are guaranteed to break the vicious cycle of winless woe.  While it's still a bit early to put stakes in the ground for how most teams will end up at the end of 2012, this is the kind of week that will show us real signs of contenders and pretenders.

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
It doesn't get much better than this Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Two perennial AFC powerhouses who last met in a very memorable 2012 conference title game are now trying to recover from devastating Week 2 losses.  Outstanding Arizona special teams aside from last week, I think the Cardinals also exposed some real concerns the Patriots have on their offensive line that the Ravens will be all too happy to exploit.  If only Ray Lewis can find the motivation to get Baltimore all angry and vengeful for this one...

Houston Texans (-2) at Denver Broncos
Now that everyone is sweeping some of the Week 1 confetti under the rug from Peyton Manning's initially triumphant return, things are about to get interesting at this Week 3 bout in Denver.  Credit the Falcons for creating some very unorthodox defensive schemes on Monday to keep Manning off-kilter that the Texans probably won't have at their disposal.  Still, Houston is looking red hot on both sides of the ball lately and will find other ways to contain No. 18 this weekend for a key road win.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
I really like this Thursday night matchup because it could go about 50 different ways.  Neither the Giants nor the Panthers have shown consistent performance across two weeks and could play anywhere along the spectrum between explosive/unstoppable and bumbling/inept.  I think it'll be a close one, but right now the Panthers look more poised to take control on offense and keep Eli Manning in check without Ahmad Bradshaw's assistance.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
I admit I wouldn't have even put this one in the Well Drink bucket before this past weekend but after watching the Eagles cheat turnover fate and the Cardinals dominate on defense and special teams for two weeks, we could be in for a wild ride in Arizona.  Then there's that whole Kolb-v.-Philly dynamic that will flood the pre-game reels.  To make a long story short, this one is going to come down to who makes fewer mistakes, and I just can't see Kevin Kolb holding it together with the chip he has on his shoulder.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (-3)
In Part 2 of the 2 - 0 faceoffs this weekend, the Falcons travel west after a short week to take on the Chargers.  In theory this one could be close, but the Chargers still look like a paper tiger in the AFC West to me until they beat a top tier team.  Atlanta's looking too hot to be within the Bolts' reach.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-7.5)
Say what you will (as I have) about Jay Cutler and the Bears last week, they will recover just find at home against the Rams this time around.  Provided Brandon Marshall can limit the dropped passes and Jay Cutler can model Week 2 Alex Smith instead of Week 2 Peyton Manning, Chicago will bounce back emphatically.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-8)
So media wallflower Jerry Jones now thinks kneel downs should be outlawed in the NFL?  I can't wait to see what kind of shenanigans that could produce between the Buccaneers and the Cowboys this weekend after the two minute warning.  The Bucs are looking like a solid team in the making, but I think Dallas is going to be strongly motivated to put all of the talented pieces back together again for the home opener.  It's hard to say how last week would have turned out if the 'Boys hadn't lost momentum so early with some very unfortunate mistakes.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3)
I might have taken a chance on the emerging Redskins for this Sunday at one point, but season-ending injuries to Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker this week spell bad news for the Washington defense.  Of course on the other hand, the Bengals gave up 27 to a young Browns offense in Week 2 that indicate this could be one heckuva shootout.  All things considered, I think the Bengals have a little more experience and a lot less to overcome to eke out a win at FedEx this time.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
I have a funny feeling about this one.  Even though the Packers were in control for the second half against the Bears last week, Aaron Rodgers & co. just haven't looked as sharp so far this season as most of us enthusiastically projected.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are showing signs of defensive dominance like their San Francisco brethren, and they are a force to be reckoned with in front of the home crowd.  Seahawks by an aquiline nose since Hasselbeck isn't there to call the coin toss.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Neither the Lions nor the Titans have looked great by most comparisons so far this year, but at least the Lions seem to have found an interim solution for their run game with Kevin Smith whereas Chris Johnson is picking up right where he very inefficiently left off.  Motown will soulfully stomp Music City into an early 0 - 3 hole.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Here's a Black Box of a game projection.  The Bills seem to be a different team than they were in Week 1, but they were playing a Chiefs team that just hasn't looked sharp this year.  The Browns on the other hand have looked more competitive than their record would indicate but they've benefited heavily from their opponents' mistakes.  I'm going with the Bills this time under the assumption that they have the confidence to continue the momentum they built on both sides of the ball last week.

New York Jets (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
I'm going to go ahead and assume last week was a fluke for the Dolphins and Jeff Ireland still deserves absolutely no credit for anything.  Even if Revis Island is temporarily docked on the mainland, the Jets should have no trouble shutting down Ryan Tannehill Hard Knocks style.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Minnesota Vikings
I can't think of many teams that are further apart on the spectrum of contenders and pretenders than the 49ers and the Vikings, respectively.  It's going to be an NFC bloodbath at the Metrodome on Sunday.  Of course, what kind of karma is it that Randy Moss is suddenly good again?

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-9)
Boy oh boy, talk about deflated expectations for these two teams so far in 2012.  One of my buddies has already snagged seats in Row 15 at the Superdome for less than $100 for this Sunday's festivities.  It might not be pretty, but this is just the kind of win the Saints need--and will secure--to regain some confidence in their abilities, especially on defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
This one is obviously a little bit of a gamble, but the Jaguars have a vastly underrated defense unlike the Colts.  Watching Andrew Luck's challenges against the Steelers (preseason) and Bears earlier this year suggest to me that this game is within reach for Jacksonville with enough will power and very, very few mistakes on offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders
I can't imagine Carson Palmer's all too excited about facing the Steelers again since he parted ways with the AFC North.  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, must be elated-- this should be no contest for the Steelers.  Let the Terrelle Pryor countdown begin!

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 18 - 14

Week 2 Recap and Why "Attitude" in the NFL Is Overrated

***P.S. As I'm finishing this post up and watching a MNF halftime segment with Chris Berman saying these first three sentences almost verbatim, I want you to know I am not a hack, just a group-thinking pundit!***

We're two weeks into the NFL season, and perhaps the most intriguing thing to say so far is that we really don't know what we don't know.  As of now, only 6 of 32 teams are 2 - 0 and they include the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that has already had 9 turnovers in 2 games.  Compare that to the 20 teams that are 1 - 1 right now.  I guess there has to be some way to rationalize my improving-but-less-than-impressive game pick record (10 - 6) but I have a feeling there could be some fascinating twists and turns when we look back on these early goings in December or so.

Here are my lingering thoughts on Week 2 in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: Why "attitude" in the NFL is overrated.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 2: The Good Stuff

• Fred Who? - Under the radar or overrated no more, depending on your perspective, C. J. Spiller is absolutely tearing it up in Buffalo after two weeks of spectacular play.  For non-game stats wonks, it is very difficult to average 10 yards/carry in a game at all, much less over two weeks and even much less when you've got almost 300 yards on the books already.  Of course, we may start seeing a Calvin Johnson-like effect if Spiller keeps it up and teams are forced to send 2 - 3 bodies his way on every play, but that can only mean good things for the rest of the Bills' overall offense if C.J. stays healthy and consistent.
• Extra Special Teams - It started with the Packers' fake field goal on Thursday night that proved to be the spark plug for total domination over the Bears.  Then we saw the Seahawks and Cardinals take down some seeming early Goliaths--the Cowboys and the Patriots, respectively--with great return runs and blocked punts that set them up for 60 minutes of game-managing success.  The Cardinals in particular might be this year's Broncos-- there's no reason that they should be winning the way they are right now, but going 9 - 2 over the past 11 games speaks for itself.  Conversely, special teams was a particularly harsh mistress for New England's kicker Stephen Gostkowski.  Now they should have a little more empathy going up against the Ravens next Sunday night...

 

• Nailed It! My Best Prediction of the Week - I was going to cite my unfortunate correctness in picking the Panthers against the spread, but watching this Monday night game, I'm going to call it at the line with Peyton Manning's big first half flop that far fewer saw coming than I did in my Week 1 Recap:
• "I'm still not 100% on Peyton Manning.  I know this is blasphemous because dude looked spectacular in most people's eyes on Sunday night [against the Steelers]...  but he narrowly avoided a couple of disastrous interceptions and got hit far more often than he would have liked, especially on the blind side." 

Week 2: The Bad Stuff

• This Gonzo Monday Night Officiating - Another late adjustment, I can't get over the fact that we're already 2 1/2 hours into this thing and it's just the third quarter.  Terrible calls, non-calls, John Fox's gin-blossoming face of wrath and John Gruden's, well, everything... On the other hand, this crap may lose just enough ratings to push Gooddell to loosen the purse strings for his A-Team zebras.
• The Freakin' Eagles - To more politely paraphrase a wise Lebowski, I hate the freakin' Eagles, man.  He of course was talking about Eagles of the Don Henley variety, but how is it that this Philadelphia team with 9 turnovers in 2 weeks (6 of them INTs courtesy of Michael Vick) is 2 - 0????  It's enough to drive you stark-raving mad, but credit Philly's defense for keeping both games within reach when they could have become rout-tastic disasters.  On the one hand, this team could be extra scary if they can clean up the mistakes, but on the other hand, it's like hitting every orange cone in the parking lot while slugging Jim Beam and still somehow getting your driver's license.
• Drew Brees' Lack of Confidence - In full transparency about the Eagles gripes above, I'm coming from a place of watching my QB deliver 4 profoundly ill-thought interceptions of his own in these first 2 weeks.  To be somewhat fair, 2 of them happened in the closing Hail Mary drive of each game, but the fat new contract and dearth of Sean Payton have not been kind to Brees's performance so far in 2012.  Still, what I'm seeing isn't a mere slide in the play-calling.  I'm seeing a skittish QB who really doesn't believe in his offensive line right now.  Make no mistake, the defensive side of the ball is still a much bigger concern for the Saints right now, but when your greatest asset is faltering under pressure, there is simply no room for error to stay in this season.

• Shanked It!  My Worst Prediction of the Week - While my most obvious miss--like most opinionators--had to be the Cardinals upsetting the Patriots on Sunday, the Bills continue to bewilder the ever-loving Nostradamus out of me:
• "Given that the Chiefs were able to go toe-to-toe with the Falcons for a decent amount of time last week, I think they have the edge over a Bills team that's very much still trying to find its identity, especially with Buffalo's big injury issues on offense."

Week 2 Feature: Why "Attitude" in the NFL Is Overrated
We saw a lot of teams and players skirting the line between take-no-prisoners attitude and just plain stupid this week.  Maybe there was something in the non-PED-laced Gatorade that I missed.  Anyway, ranked in order from mildly pathetic to shooting-your-own-thigh bad:

• Mildly Pathetic: Detroit Lions Being the Detroit Lions - I wasn't expecting the Lions to win by any means on Sunday night, but talk about same stuff on a different day.  Pleasantries were stiffly maintained between Jims Schwarz and Harbaugh, but you just can't triumph over a hungry and mean place like San Francisco with 8 penalties including the ever-avoidable personal foul that those chippy Lions love so well.  They haven't learned a thing from last year.
• Deep Sigh Worthy: Jay Cutler Being Jay Cutler - Some may argue that Jay Cutler has earned the right to pout for all eternity given his sandcastle-quality protection at the line.  But even if that's technically true, I'm guessing Cutler's pity party felt a lot less whimsical than a Debbie Downer skit in the Chicago locker room after they were torched by the Green Bay defense on Thursday. Leadership 101 says that composure is half the battle, and if Jay Cutler can't put his self-righteous demons in the locker for 3 hours a week, he will never be considered a leader.

• Deserving of Having Their Cars Keyed: The Bucs' Sour Grapes Formation - Oy vey.  Nothing like a cheap gimmick to show everyone you're the new sheriff in town.  I was going to do my best to reserve judgment on divisional foe Tampa Bay for a few more weeks, but Coach Greg Schiano is kidding himself trying to rationalize charging the Giants' line of scrimmage when they had clearly already won the game.  I'm not even talking about player safety risks or the rules of football civility, I'm talking about good old-fashioned hypocrisy.  In case you forgot, the Bucs knelt out not once, not twice, but three times in Week 1 to seal their victory over the Panthers.  Doesn't exactly sound like "playing all 60 minutes" to me. You better believe it's gonna get awkward the next time Tampa is given that kind of choice in the waning moments.
• Shooting-His-Own-Thigh Bad: Josh. Morgan. - Speaking of hypocrisy and very poor choices, how about the Redskins' Josh Morgan this weekend?  He single-handedly let his ego take Washington out of contention against the Rams by chucking a ball at STL corner Courtland Finnegan after Morgan caught a pass that put the 'Skins in position to tie the game.  This was very stupid in and of itself, but turns out Morgan unknowingly predicted his own fate in the Washington Post this past week on this exact issue.  If a time machine of yourself isn't get enough to put team before "I," then how can we expect Amy Poehler and Will Arnett to make it in this crazy world?!

Week 2 Picks for Every NFL Game

A wild NFL opening weekend is officially on the books, and I barely broke even on my picks.  Fool me once, shame on  you, Vegas, and my not-so-risk-averse projections. Fool me twice and well, I might tow the boring Vegas line and you'll stop having things to make fun of with this garbage.  Here are my picks for this second week of our NFL lord and savior.  (P.S., All these Thursday night games are really going to complicate things when we're anxiously awaiting injury reports...)

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Handshake-Gate 2.0 is the Lady Blitz Game of the Week. San Francisco definitely answered a lot of questions (and criticisms) I had about that offense last week in Green Bay.  Detroit may be able to muster a little more D-Line heat than the Packers could, but Alex Smith knows how to shred a weak secondary these days.  No contest-- 49ers by at least a touchdown.  Also, Jim Harbaugh has a new zebra-striped enemy to replace Coach Schwarz with now.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
I have to say, I'm definitely less confident in the Packers than I was a week ago.  Yes, the 49ers have an elite defense and a very respectable offense right now, but the Packers were absolutely hog-tied without their usually-peerless passing game to cover up for a weak D and rushing game.  Nonetheless, I think Coach Mike McCarthy is strong enough to make some early adjustments and help the Pack eke out a win against the Bears tonight, even if they don't beat the spread.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
How about those Ravens on Monday night?  Even with a shorter week to prepare, I think Baltimore has it in the bag against Philadelphia, whose O-Line is looking way too shoddy to handle Haloti Ngata & co. these days.  Let's hope Michael Vick realizes that players with purple jerseys don't play for his team either or this game could be a total Ravens rout.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
I'm certain the Jets overperformed last Sunday against the Bills, who were not who we thought they were.  Still, it's hard to get a good picture of how effective Pittsburgh will be, especially losing key talent on offense against a stalwart NYJ defense.  My gut says the Steelers will find a way since Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning and it is tough to win any away game at Heinz Field.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Here's the story of two quarterbacks that started off with a no-huddle bang last week.  Brent Grimes' season-ending injury could certainly create some problems for Atlanta in slowing down Peyton Manning, but out with the old and in with the new.  Matt Ryan looks primed to outduel the Great One and will do so in high fashion at the Georgia Dome this weekend.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-7.5)
If there's any game I'd be willing to stamp an upset on, it would be this one since the Giants continue to be one of the most inconsistent and unpredictable teams in football while the Buccaneers showed some real signs of life in Week 1. Nevertheless, the Giants have had extra time to rest while getting a much clearer picture of the Schiano system than the Carolina Panthers could have going cold turkey last Sunday.  New York will get back on the horse this week in order to stay in early contention.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
I got a real bad feeling about this one.  Par usual I hope I am wrong, but we all know how the Saints tend to play outdoors and how they now apparently play against option quarterbacks under Steve Spagnuolo's fledgling system.  If NOLA wins, it will be because the Saints capitalize on turnovers and give a serious boost to their run game.  If the Panthers win (and I think they will), it'll be because they learned a thing or two from the Redskins about how to utilize Cam Newton.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-3)
In the files of Teams I Want to Believe In, KC goes to America's saddest city in the battle for 0.500.  Given that the Chiefs were able to go toe-to-toe with the Falcons for a decent amount of time last week, I think they have the edge over a Bills team that's very much still trying to find its identity, especially with Buffalo's big injury issues on offense.

Washington Redskins (-3) at St. Louis Rams
Can he do it again?  I need not say more about RG3's lights-out performance against New Orleans last week.  That kind of show isn't likely to repeat in carbon copy, and like the Giants v. Bucs, the Rams will have a better handle on the Washington playbook than the Saints did.  Nevertheless, I like the 'Skins chances in this one.  Matt Stafford's bone-headed interceptions were the only thing keeping STL in the game last week and RG3 has provided no evidence to suggest he'll give the Rams the pleasure.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
The 12th Man has a funny way with opponents, but if the Cowboys could punch the reigning Super Bowl winner in the mouth at home, they'll be just fine in Seattle.  I look forward to many more obscene shouts of glee from Rob Ryan as he sends in his mercenaries to terrorize poor rookie Russell Wilson.  Nevertheless, I consider this a Well Drink game because the Dallas O vs. the Seattle D could be a treat if both parties bring their A-Game.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots (-13.5)
The only real question here is whether or not the Patriots will beat the spread, and the answer is yes, yes they absolutely will.

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
At this point, I believe in Andrew Luck's resilience after a rough opener way more than I believe in the Minnesota Vikings' ... well, anything.  This is a critical early opportunity for Chuck Pagano to instill some regular reason confidence in his young draft star, and I'm hopeful that Luck will rise to the occasion provided the Colts can keep AP under 150 yards.

Oakland Raiders (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
Yech-- poor Oakland got the short end of the long snapper this past week. Special teams horrors like that don't often repeat themselves, and if the Raiders were otherwise good enough to compete with the Chargers, they are good enough to keep the Dolphins' [few] Sun Life faithful in tears this Sunday.

Cinncinati Bengals (-7) at Cleveland Browns
I can actually see Cleveland getting the better of Cincy given their strong defensive showing against the Eagles last week.  But the thing is, Brandon Weeden will have to prove himself a competent manager of games and Andy Dalton will have to hand the ball over to the Dawg Pound on a silver platter 3 - 4 times for that to happen.  Nevermind, the Bengals got this thang.

Houston Texans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Poor Houston.  Like New England, they're stuck in the House Punch bowl again this week through no fault of their own.  I'm willing to concede that the Jaguars have shown incremental signs of improvement through the preseason and Week 1, but baby steps aren't going to put you in contention with an Olympic sprinter.  The Texans by a mile.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-6)
Jake Locker still has a lot to prove and Philip Rivers sort of doesn't.  Unless the Titans' defense gets exceptionally opportunistic with the Chargers' average play, they just aren't ripe enough on offense to get it done on the road.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 8
Season Record: 8 - 8

Week 1 Recap and Where the Saints Should Go From Here

A wild Week 1 of close calls, emerging stars, upsets and minimal Tebow distractions has gotten the 2012 NFL Season off to a fantastic start.  I'll be the first to admit that my dismal game picking record for the week (8 - 8) is pretty embarrassing on the one hand, but that's the risk you take as a rookie football blogger trying to beat the Vegas spread.  But onward and upward as expectations are recalibrated across the blogosphere!

Here are my lingering thoughts on Week 1 in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting throughout the season.  This week: Where the Saints should go from here after a shocker at home.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 1: The Good Stuff

• Holy Crap, RG3 - I must admit I did not see this one coming.  I figured Mr. III would have flashes of brilliance but make just enough rookie mistakes for a struggling Saints defense to capitalize on.  Boy was I wrong.  The thing separating RG3 from Andrew Luck in the early going (other than the fact that the Bears' defense is functional right now) is his ability to be patiently opportunistic.  He and the 'Skins play callers stuck to a scheme that virtually eliminated mistakes and allowed the rookie QB to strike big, early and often to take control of the game.
• David Aker's Platinum Toe - The 49ers/Packers game reminded me of the 2009 March Madness tourney.  A Memphis Tigers fan, I watched as Missouri built a decent but surmountable early lead and thought we'd have a chance.  Then one of their guys launched a half (more like 3/4)-court buzzer beater than went straight through the net to close out the half, and I already knew it was over.  Stuff like David Akers' record-tying 63-yard field goal at Lambeau on Sunday goes to show that 2012 might just be San Francisco's year.

• Nailed It! : My Best Prediction of the Week - It's not a rocket science prediction that goes against anyone's conventional wisdom, but my Colts-Bears pick was pretty spot on:
• "While the premise of Andrew Luck and his rag-tag team of toddlers surprising supervillain Jay Cutler and the weather-worn Bears sounds like a great Hallmark movie, it ain't gonna happen."

The Bad Stuff

• Home Field Disadvantages - We saw three powerhouses from the 2011 season/playoffs stumble badly out of the gate in front of the home crowd this weekend.  The Giants became the first reigning Super Bowl team since Elway left the Broncos to lose during opening ceremonies.  The Saints and Packers saw their explosive offenses stifled by the Redskins and 49ers, respectively.  It could be a blip on the parity-driven league's schedule, torn up secondary squads across the board or good old-fashioned overconfidence, but none of this showed up in my crystal ball, obviously.
• I'm Still Not 100% on Peyton Manning - I know this is blasphemous because dude looked spectacular in most people's eyes on Sunday night.  But the Steelers didn't look so hot in Mile High against Tim Tebow last January either and they're still missing a lot of key components including James Harrison, Ryan Clark, Rashard Mendenhall and most of their A- and B-Team offensive linemen.  In terms of things Manning was in control of, he narrowly avoided a couple of disastrous interceptions and got hit far more often than he would have liked, especially on the blind side.  All I'm saying is, this thing was closer than people think.

• Shanked It! : My Worst Prediction of the Week - I committed a mortal sin and read way too much into the preseason chatter about these AFC East rivals, though my caveat definitely played a role.  Talk about Opposite Day:
• "I'm calling it - Ryan Fitzpatrick on an average day would be worth five Mark Sanchez-es if multiplying zeroes counted.  Caveat: Fred Jackson must have fully functional knees and toes."

Week 1 Feature: Where the Saints Should Go From Here

It was a painful opening week for the New Orleans Saints, who were a far cry from their total 'Dome dominance last season.  Not even the temporary stay for Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith could pump up the team or the crowd once both sides of the ball [immediately] went to Washington.  Here are some quick thoughts on how to move forward for NOLA:

• Have a Little More Patience on Defense - There were certainly some Gregg Williams-esque blitzing gambles that the Saints should have stayed away from against the Redskins, though I can understand the sentiment going up against a rookie QB.  I'm giving Spags a couple more weeks to get everyone settled into the new system with Jabari Greer back on the field.  In the meantime, there better be double coverage on Steve Smith next week or that game is over before it starts.
• Respect Your Own Run Game - Much attention is rightfully being paid to how RG3 outplayed Drew Brees in Week 1.  But the underlying issue to me is how quickly the Saints abandoned the run.  Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram rushed the ball a collective 10 times while Drew Brees had 52 pass attempts.  In fact, 4 of those pass attempts happened when the Saints were temporarily stalled at Washington's 3 yard line.  Huh?  You know the whole bit about insanity and expecting different results.  The Saints have too solid an offensive line and too deep a rushing game to get discouraged so quickly.  Pete Carmichael knows better, and he can use that to the team's advantage in Carolina.   
• 
• Flexibility Is Your Friend - There's no denying that Sean Payton's absence was truly felt on Sunday in New Orleans.  Aside from his motivational skills and astute play calling, Payton has always been excellent in helping the team make mid-course adjustments when the game plan isn't working.  We didn't see much of that this week.  Per my points above, the defense never found an answer for RG3's explosiveness, and Drew Brees tried to shoulder the entire offense for 60 minutes (paltry time of possession notwithstanding).  Aaron Kromer needs to put on his analytical hat on in a big way for the next five games or this talent-rich squad is going to become a hobbling one-trick pony.
• The Silver Lining - Like I said to friends after last year's Week 1 loss to Green Bay, the Saints have all the potential in the world to contend.  This was a situation in which a very thin secondary and still-developing defensive squad combined with sloppy turnovers and penalties sunk the team's momentum too many times.  Yet New Orleans still had not one but two shots to regain control in the fourth quarter.  Had the Saints executed to their potential in even one or two more series, we might have seen a different outcome.  It's like the parable of two track stars who run the same time, one with perfect form, one not as good.  You always scout the imperfect runner because once you get the fundamentals right, she'll be much faster.

Quick Snaps: My Postseason Predictions

To follow up on my initial win-loss predictions before we get too far into the season so as to preserve my veil of ignorance, here are my postseason predictions for the 2012-13 NFL season.  Given that I'm already 0 - 1 for the year, a grain of salt might do the body good, but you never know.  Fun fact: usually at least 5-6 teams who made the playoffs during the previous year do not repeat.  I've shuffled the cards with four teams to keep things interesting:

AFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) New England Patriots
Things are looking up for a team that has a deep bench and a schedule personifying Snuggles the Bear.

2. (bye) Houston Texans 
Balance and health will help this team maintain a comfortable seat near the top of the AFC.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 
When people are done fawning over Peyton Manning's past and see the Chiefs step up in a weak division, they'll already have it locked up.

4. Cincinnati Bengals 
Provided Andy Dalton can steer clear of a sophomore slump with a little help from his banged up defensive rivals, the Bengals will edge their way atop the AFC North.

5. Baltimore Ravens
I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens and Bengals switch places when the dust settles, but Flacco & co. will have to prove themselves more consistently productive first.

6. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are an upset pick of sorts, but they can make a run if they put all of the pieces together early and take some key divisional wins.

Wild Card Round
Chiefs over Bills, Ravens over Bengals

Divisional Round
Ravens over Patriots, Texans over Chiefs

AFC Championship
Ravens over Texans - The tenacity of a team with a closing window of opportunity in its current era will see the Ravens through the more talent-balanced but inexperienced Texans... just like last time.

NFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) Green Bay Packers
Starting right where they left off, the Packers will be nearly unstoppable as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center.

2. (bye) New York Giants
The bad news: the Giants already had a rough opening week.  The good news: they play best with their backs against the wall... I hope.

3. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta takes back the NFC South division crown with an offense firing on all cylinders.

4. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers maintain dominance in their fledgling division, but they don't get quite as many breaks in the schedule or turnover ratio this time around.

5. Philadelphia Eagles
Philly meets expectations after a little more time oiling its talent machine with full OTAs.  If Michael Vick can stay healthy, they could easily surpass the G-Men.

6. Chicago Bears
The Bears pick up the NFC North stock that the Lions are selling while keeping Brandon Marshall out of the court system in the process.

Wild Card Round
Bears over Falcons, 49ers over Eagles

Divisional Round
Packers over Bears, Giants over 49ers

NFC Championship
Packers over Giants - The Giants have a way of squeezing every last ounce out of their potential in the playoffs and especially on the road.  Still, I can't see Green Bay letting the postseason slip away prematurely this time around.

The 2013 Super Bowl
Packers over Ravens - If given these two teams, I'd really, really, really want to see the Ravens take it all one last time in the Ray Lewis era, and they could.  But that all depends on whether or not Baltimore's offense can keep pace with Aaron Rodgers for 60 minutes, and I'm thinking not.

Week 1 Picks for Every NFL Game

Friends, countrymen and women, the NFL season is officially upon and not a moment too soon!  It's time to look into the inaugural crystal ball of triumph and heartache on the gridiron for my Week 1 Picks for Every NFL Game.  Showing the Vegas odds at the time of posting and ranked in awesomeness by volume, here they be:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5)
Consider this one the Lady Blitz Game o' the Week. No two teams have higher expectations going into the 2012 NFL season based on their accomplishments (and ultimate playoff shortcomings) last season.  Defense may win championships... sometimes, but Aaron Rodgers will stomp the Niners at home with an unstoppable arm and beat the spread too.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3.5)
Oh sure, people will play up this one like it'll be close and impassioned for the ratings, but I see no reason why the Giants won't win and easily cover the spread.  Fun Fact: Reigning Super Bowl champs have gone 8 - 0 since the NFL started doing the whole Thursday [Wednesday] night kick-off extravaganza. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Call this Mile High opener the Grumpy Old Men Bowl.  Does Peyton Manning and/or the AARP of NFL defenses still have it?  Judging by the way the 49ers picked Peyton apart in the preseason (and I know it was the preseason...), I think the Steelers will be talented enough and plenty motivated to seize victory in Week 1 at the horse-faced behest of John Elway.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
I'm looking forward to a better divisional rivalry for the Bengals than the friggin' Browns.  Let Week 1 be the start of a beautiful frenemy-ship between Baltimore and Cincy.  Given the drainage of receiver options for Andy Dalton, I think Ray Lewis' Ravens will have no trouble containing the Bengals and meeting the spread.

 

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7)
Talk about teams with something to prove this season, Week 1 in the Super Dome should be a chance to confirm or deny whatever you thought about these teams going into the preseason.  I think experience and a chip on the Who Dat shoulder will see the Saints through, but it'll be closer than the gambling populace thinks.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (-9.5)
Youth meets experience at Soldier Field this week.  While the premise of Andrew Luck and his rag-tag team of toddlers surprising supervillian Jay Cutler the weather-worn Bears sounds like a great Hallmark movie, it ain't gonna happen.  The Bears by a touchdown.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
This is a tough one since both of these teams are chasing after yet-unfulfilled playoff dreams in recent years.  I think the Chiefs will find a way to rekindle that mojo they found against the Packers last year and frustrate the Falcons offense beyond what they can handle in Week 1.

New England Patriots (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
Say what you will about that defense, the Pats should have no problem with the Titans this week as long as Jake Locker is fresh off the bench incubator and Tom Brady's receivers take their gloves out of the Country Crock for three hours.

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cam Newton... Greg Schiano... blah blah blah etc. etc.  The Panthers look to be on much more stable ground heading into 2012, so this should be a pretty easy win for the fightin' teal and black.  Bonus drinks for every time the announcers have euphoric seizures over Luke Kuechly tackling Doug Martin for a loss.

San Diego Chargers (-1) at Oakland Raiders
This should probably technically count as a House Punch game, but I'm not giving up just yet on the whole AFC West-- that's what Weeks 2 - 17 are for.  Anyway, Carson Palmer will absolutely BEG to be benched in this one, and San Diego could make just enough inexplicable mistakes to win by a single point without trying to shave for Vegas.

 

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns
Stranger [read: more pathetic] things have certainly happened with the Eagles, especially with Michael Vick's ever-exploding ribs, but I expect a Philly rout in Cleveland on Sunday.  The Eagles' consistently scary pass rush will be way too much for Brandon Weeden to stomach out of the gate.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5)
I'm calling it-- Ryan Fitzpatrick on an average day would be worth five Mark Sanchez-es if multiplying zeroes counted.  Caveat: Fred Jackson must have fully functional knees and toes.  I think the Bills will prey on the beleaguered NYJ and find a way to put a field goal or two more on the board in a classic snoozer.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-7)
Meh.  Given that STL still hasn't identified a permanent Defensive Coordinator for Gregg Williams, I'm not sure anything short of a Wile E. Coyote-like scheme involving barbed wire and hand grenades will stop Calvin Johnson from lighting it up at home.  The Lions should have this one by a landslide.  Ack!  OH NOEZ, BEWARE THE MADDEN CURSE

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Blaine Gabbert has looked suspiciously good in the preseason, but the MJD holdout and generally unremarkable offseason have me siding with the Vikings at home for this one.  Soak it up because this'll be the last time either of these teams are above 0.500 in 2012.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-12)
Statistically, there should be a handful games that result in a wider point differential than this, but things are looking pretty hopeless for sad, sad Miami in Week 1.  Consider this the karmic offset to one of the most hated NBA franchises in recent years winning it all in June, temporary Team USA LeBron-lovin' aside.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Given the offensive and defensive matchups for these two teams, this could be a war of slow, sloppy, and ultimately very boring attrition.  Conversely, we could see some spectacular scoring off of turnovers and punt returns, but generally, ugh.  The Seahawks have it in the bag since they're not trying to fool anyone with their offensive woes and can sometimes keep the QB upright.