2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us begin with the AFC North, arguably the best division in the league last season with plenty of reasons to be optimistic against the uneven AFC West and NFC West this year.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: The Ravens pick up where they left off last season, a popular dark horse for the postseason. Only this time, they have a much healthier secondary and Justin Forsett after a full offseason to prepare as a starter in the backfield.  With a little more health and cohesion, Baltimore edges out Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the coveted division title.

Worst Case Scenario: After totally rebuilding this team's receiving corps and letting go of run-stuffing anchor Haloti Ngata in the offseason, the Ravens get off to a slow start that proves too much to overcome.  It's hard to envision Baltimore getting to less than 0.500, but the margin of error is razor thin in such a competitive division, and the Ravens miss the playoffs for just the second time in John Harbaugh's tenure.

Bellwether Match Up: Given these past few seasons, every divisional game for the Ravens is monumental for where they'll land in January.  Still, I'm intrigued by Baltimore's game against the San Diego Chargers in Week 8. These two teams have had some wild games against one another over the past few seasons that almost always wind up having playoff implications. And if the Ravens do in fact get off to a slow start, they could find themselves in a must-win situation when the Bolts come to town in October.

Prediction: I'm cautiously optimistic that the Ravens' rejuvenated secondary will help them overcome the loss of Haloti Ngata on the defensive line. Assuming Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco maintain a similar level of production on the other side of the ball, 10 - 6 isn't out of the question.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: The Bengals keep on surprising everyone in the regular season with one of the best secondaries in the league and the three-headed monster of A.J. Green, Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard on offense.  Cincinnati's pass rush bounces back after an unexpected down year and the Bengals finally get their first playoff win in over 20 years.

Worst Case Scenario: Andy Dalton keeps on backsliding and the divisional/conference competition is just too much for the good-not-great Bengals to stay on top.  A catastrophic injury to Green or Hill shuts down Cincy's offense for good, and Marvin Lewis is finally sent packing after another disappointing end to the season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Bengals travel to Baltimore in Week 3 for their first AFC North matchup of the season.  An early divisional road win would give Cincinnati some breathing room while the Ravens adjust to big roster changes and the Steelers deal with Le'Veon Bell's suspension.

Prediction: Cincinnati should be just as good this year as they have been over the past several years, but there's just something about them that always feels a step removed from mediocre to me.  The Bengals have benefited from more health and stability than most teams in the NFL for the past five years, but this could be the year they finally go 8 - 8 like I keep thinking they will.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Josh McCown turns back into 2013 Bears Josh McCown instead of 2014 Buccaneers dumpster fire Josh McCown, leading the Browns to an inspiring early-season surge against the weaker teams on their schedule.  Cleveland even pulls off an upset or two against their division rivals, making them the ill-fated underdog darlings (a la the 2014 Rams) of 2015.

Worst Case Scenario: The Browns keep on Browns-ing with a stockpile of draft busts, a middling journeyman under center and an inconsistent running game. After amassing a little false hope with an easy schedule to start the season, Cleveland crashes and burns when they face off against the Chargers, Ravens and Broncos in consecutive weeks.  A three-win season isn't entirely out of the question.

Bellwether Match Up: Per the schedule mentioned above, the Browns will have a lot more confidence going into the gauntlet if they can come away with a sweep against the floundering Jets, Titans and Raiders in Weeks 1 - 3.  That would go a long way to prove that last year's 7-win campaign wasn't a total fluke.

Prediction: I tried to sprinkle in some context-clue breadcrumbs above, so hopefully you aren't surprised that I'd put the Browns at 5 - 11 this season.  Josh McCown is a significant downgrade from Brian Hoyer, and Cleveland won't get many breaks in the schedule this time other than a few AFC bottom feeders.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: With AFC stalwarts like the Patriots and Broncos facing more potential pitfalls than in years past, the Steelers ride their newly explosive offense and younger defense to the top of the conference.  With a healthier roster next January, Pittsburgh makes the deep playoff run many thought they were capable of before injuries caught up with them in 2014.

Worst Case Scenario: Last year showed us the Steelers' [very high] ceiling when this team is anchored by a healthy offensive line and its top three skill players--Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown--having career years.  That means Pittsburgh could remain a force to be reckoned with, but it could also mean this team regresses to the mean with some performance slumps or major injuries.  Given this team's penchant for inexplicably losing to really bad teams, I could see the Steelers getting edged out of the playoffs (just like the Ravens or Bengals) if they rack up a few unlucky bounces.

Bellwether Match Up: Assuming Tom Brady draws out the court proceedings on that deflation thing and starts in Week 1, this Steelers-Patriots season opener could be a classic. Look for Pittsburgh to exploit New England's largely new and inexperienced defense to challenge the Pats in a shootout.

Prediction: I'm feeling bullish on the Steelers' offensive firepower and the opportunity for younger defensive starters in waiting to step up.  If Pittsburgh can repeat another 11 - 5 kind of year, they should be in prime position to win this division and perhaps book some tickets to Santa Clara in February.