Lady Blitz Fantasy Football 2015

Team Bakery Special has returned for Year 3 of fantasy football, and let me tell you, being in a 12-team league is just brutal.  By the time you get to the 200th pick, you might as well hope that Terrell Owens finds his way off the waiver wire somewhere, but I loaded up on skill players in hopes that some of them will work out before I have to dump them for backup kickers and QBs. Without further adieu, here's the full roster:

Starters:

• Andrew Luck (QB)
• Jeremy Hill (RB)
• Joseph Randle (RB)
• Dez Bryant (WR)
• Davante Adams (WR)
• Josh Hill (TE)
• Ameer Abdullah (Flex)
• Vikings (D/ST)
• Matt Bryant (K)

Bench:

• Keenan Allen (WR)
• Doug Martin (RB)
• Devin Funchess (WR)
• Antonio Gates (TE)
• David Cobb (RB)
• Victor Cruz (WR)
• Brandon Coleman (WR)
• Ronnie Hillman (RB)
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB)

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC South, which really has nowhere to go but up after a historically bad 2014 season.  They can certainly score some cheap wins against the worse teams of the AFC South and NFC East, but it's hard to know who will come out on top after lots of shakeups all around this division in the offseason.  Also be forewarned, fellow Saints fans, I am putting on my very best hex this year after predicting them to make the NFC Championship last season and getting a four-month-long punch in the gut in return.

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: With not-Mike Smith coaching, an influx of defensive talent and fresher legs for the Falcons' run game, Atlanta charges ahead in a very weak division.  They don't even have to pump crowd noise in at the Georgia Dome anymore because Falcons fans come back out of the woodwork to cheer on this peaking rollercoaster of a franchise in January.

Worst Case Scenario: All the coaching changes in the world still can't make up for the Falcons' brittle offensive line, and should Julio Jones tweak that hamstring again, Matt Ryan might become pink mist before the season is over.  Nevertheless, it's hard to see the Falcons having a much lower floor than their ceiling last year, so they could still improve by 1-2 wins in this scenario.

Bellwether Match Up: Since just about every team in this division should look elsewhere for a true litmus test, I'm intrigued by Atlanta's Week 1 opener with the Philadelphia Eagles.  This could give us a good clue as to whether or not the Falcons defense is on the upswing under Legion of Boom mastermind Dan Quinn and also whether this team can contend with franchises in the next tier.

Prediction: I feel kind of nuts for saying this, but I see significant improvements in the Falcons' future. Having addressed big gaps in this defense and making serious upgrades on this coaching staff are big, and so is the fact that Atlanta has the easiest schedule in the NFL.  I'll hex them a 10 - 6 record and division title.  Muhahahaha.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Unphased by Kelvin Benjamin's season-ending injury, the Panthers remain one of the best ground-and-pound teams in the NFL and wear down the rest of the NFC South for the third year in a row.  Carolina at its best probably won't look pretty this season, but this team always has a shot as long as that bruising defense stays healthy.

Worst Case Scenario: The loss of Benjamin is just too much for Cam Newton to overcome, especially since the Panthers have plenty reason to be worried about their offensive line.  Newton lasts about six weeks before getting hit one time too many, and Carolina falls swiftly back to earth after an improbable division win in 2014.

Bellwether Match Up: The Panthers have a brutal four-week stretch in the middle of the season when they face the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers.  The rest of the division only plays Philadelphia and Indy, so Carolina will need to stand its ground against those previous NFC championship contenders to stay in the hunt.

Prediction: With Kelvin Benjamin out of the lineup and little else to cheer about with the Panthers' receiving corps and offensive line, things could get really ugly for Carolina this season. I see this team sliding to 6 - 10 and contemplating Ron Rivera's seat temperature once more.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Even after dropping a number of big names in the offseason, the Saints' stylistic shift from a finesse offense to a ground-and-pound bully pays off, especially in protecting fourth quarter leads.  Drew Brees rebounds after a disappointing 2014 season and helps New Orleans eke out its first division title in four years with an emerging new supporting cast on offense.

Worst Case Scenario: Despite becoming a beloved adopted son of the city, it turns out Rob Ryan is just as bad at running a defense as we've come to suspect.  With another abysmal year on that side of the ball, Brees is forced into 45+ passing attempts per game without Jimmy Graham and the Saints' effort to boost their ground game become irrelevant.  New Orleans continues to plod toward a disappointing end to Brees' football career.

Bellwether Match Up: If the Saints have a shot at the NFC South title, they will have to have a much better year against their divisional rival Falcons.  And if both teams rediscover the mojo they've had in recent years, we could be in for an all-the-marbles battle royale when the Saints travel to Atlanta in Week 17.

Prediction: Although New Orleans' bold attempts to shore up a terrible defense have been admirable (especially in spite of dumping human disaster Junior Galette), I just can't believe things will be much better until I see it.  I see the Saints improving slightly to 8 - 8 and starting to seriously ponder life without Drew Brees and possibly Sean Payton.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: Rookie QB Jameis Winston lives up to the hype and makes the long-floundering Bucs immediate contenders. With tons of talent all around from the likes of Mike Evans, Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, Tampa finally puts the pieces together in a breakout season on both sides of the ball and returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

Worst Case Scenario: Winston's flashes of brilliance are eclipsed by many a bone-headed turnover that plagued this QB at Florida State last season. Although he's still enough of an upgrade from Josh McCown to improve Tampa's win totals a little bit, Winston starts drawing comparisons of Ryan Leaf to Marcus Mariota's Peyton Manning in Nashville.

Bellwether Match Up: Speaking of, the Buccaneers host the Titans in Week 1!  As I said in our AFC South preview, you can't really expect either rookie QB to light the world on fire during their pro football debuts. But with the inevitable hype and comparisons that will surround this game, it will be interesting to see whether Mariota or Winston shows more poise and resilience after the dust settles.

Prediction: Especially given the woes for the Panthers and plenty of holes on the other NFC South rosters, I'm willing to take a bit of a chance with the Buccaneers.  I'll hex them into a mercurial rise to 7 - 9 and lots of buzz about their potential heading into 2016.

More Ill-Fated Win-Loss Predictions!

• AFC North Edition
• AFC South Edition
• AFC East Edition 
• AFC West Edition
• NFC North Edition 

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC North, where I spy three legit playoff contenders and then of course Jay Cutler's Bears.  The ceiling is mighty high for this division if they can only get past the bruising defenses of the NFC West and the growing offensive prowess of the AFC West.

Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario: While the Bears’ offense faces an uphill battle in even the best of circumstances (i.e., even if Kevin White is lost for part instead of all of the 2015 season), new coach John Fox still has the defensive acumen to start whipping the Bears back into shape. With a bulked up ground-and-pound style of play, Chicago manages to win a couple more games and stay in it for every 4th quarter during a “rebuilding” 8-8 kind of year.

Worst Case Scenario: Without Kevin White or Brandon Marshall to stretch the field, Jay Cutler hits the self-destruct button and somehow reaches new career highs in turnovers and sacks. Not only do the Bears bench Cutler again for Jimmy Clausen, they outright release the guy at a major expense in the middle of the season in hopes of tanking their way to victory in 2016 and eradicating a mysterious case of measles the locker room.

Bellwether Match Up: The Bears will be running a true gauntlet to start the year given that they’ll face five teams that had winning records in 2014 (and four that made the playoffs) in their first six games. In terms of division rivals, they probably won’t beat the Packers in Week 1, but Chicago might have a shot at the Ndamukong Suh-less Lions in Week 6 to salvage their playoff hopes after a brutal early stretch.

Prediction: I could put a little more faith in John Fox’s latest rebuilding project in a weaker division, but with better roster talent everywhere else in the North and especially under center, I see the Bears mired in another disappointing 6 - 10 kind of season.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario: If you aren't a Packers fan, wouldn't your team's best scenario be returning a health Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, and Randall Cobb to your starting offense? This Saints fan is raising her hand [even if that list included Jordy Nelson until this past Sunday]. Anyway, if Green Bay fires on all cylinders on offense for 14 out of 16 games this season, there won't be a ton of work for a good-not-great defense to worry about.  And this time, the Packers don't blow it in January so that they can bookend their Super Bowl I victory with a Super Bowl 50 Lombardi.

Worst Case Scenario: Save maybe the Broncos, the Packers won't likely face an offense better than their own this season, so health among their key skill players is a must, especially now that Nelson is out for the season.  If Rodgers takes a bad hit or has to put everything on his shoulders with Lacy on the sideline, Green Bay could lose ground against the better teams in the conference when the playoffs roll around.  The last thing this team probably wants to do is go back to Seattle in January.

Bellwether Match Up: Because there's simply never a dull moment between these two, sign me up for the next chapter in the Packers-Seahawks saga in Week 2.  Green Bay will be hosting the two-time conference champions and vying for its first head-to-head win since 2009.  There's also the whole vengeance-and-redemption angle for the Packers after blowing a 4th-quarter lead in Seattle in astonishing fashion last January.  Can't wait!

Prediction: Green Bay's ceiling is just about as high as any team's in the NFL these days, so the Packers should come away with at least a 12 - 4 record and a shot at the top seed in the NFC.

Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario: Despite some high-profile exits in free agency, Detroit’s defense is just as good as it was during last year’s playoff run. On offense, Ameer Abdullah is the next coming of Barry Sanders, making the Lions a surprisingly dangerous contender in the NFC and maybe even a division winner for the first time since 1993.

Worst Case Scenario: Without Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley anchoring the line of scrimmage, the Lions’ defense regresses back to the mean and forces Matt Stafford to play catch-up (i.e., target Megatron 40 times per game) in many a heartbreaking loss. As with 2012, Detroit struggles to keep up with their better competition after a playoff year and slides back into mediocrity in a tough division.

Bellwether Match Up: As seems to be the case most years, Detroit’s best litmus test for proving they belong will be their Thanksgiving matchup with the Packers in Week 13. Overcoming their toughest division rival while everyone’s watching would be a welcome rehearsal if another playoff appearance is in the cards.

Prediction:  I do think the Lions’ offense has the potential to make up for a bit of regression on defense, but it would be hard to top a truly exceptional 2014 season on that side of the ball against tougher competition. Nevertheless, I'm giving Detroit 9 - 7 and another futile shot at a wild card win.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario: All of the raw, young talent on this team that many have been fawning over during the offseason justifies the hype and then some.  Mike Zimmer molds the Vikings defense into Purple People Eaters 2.0 while Teddy Bridgewater climbs securely into the second echelon of NFL quarterbacks.  With  number of strengths on offense and defense and a pretty manageable schedule, Minnesota becomes a playoff contender once more.

Worst Case Scenario: OC Norv Turner does his best to squander Minnesota's offensive talent, reverting this team back to a one-trick-pony of unending handoffs to Adrian Peterson.  Detroit and Green Bay are just too good for Minnesota to keep up in the playoff hunt and the Vikings end up golfing in January after another season of coming up just short.

Bellwether Match Up: The Vikings could really start things out right during the first three weeks of the season when they travel to San Francisco and then host the Lions and Chargers.  If Minnesota comes out 3 - 0, plenty of people will start talking about this team's potential.

Prediction: Looking at the state of the rest of the NFC, I feel pretty good about the Lions' or Vikings' chances of landing a wild card spot even if I don't think they're good enough to top the Packers.  So here's to hoping Minnesota starts putting it all together with a young, talented roster and a solid 9 - 7 season.

More Ill-Fated Win-Loss Predictions!

• AFC North Edition
• AFC South Edition
• AFC East Edition 
• AFC West Edition

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC West

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC West, which will face the mightily competitive AFC North and NFC North this season.  It could be a real inter-divisional cannibal party!

Denver Broncos

Best Case Scenario: Well, we've certainly seen Denver's best case scenario for two and a half seasons with Peyton Manning not just sustaining his performance but peaking after an already-HOF-worthy career.  Manning obviously lost a step with a nasty quad injury in 2014, but with a full offseason to recover behind him, who's to say the Broncos can't do it again?  With Gary Kubiak bringing his zone-blocking expertise to town and Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson adding serious muscle to Denver's running game, the new-look Broncos could work out surprisingly well.

Worst Case Scenario: If you want to know what life at Mile High would be like without a healthy Peyton Manning, look no further than this team's miserable performance against the Colts in the last divisional round of the playoffs.  As I say pretty much every year, Father Time is bearing down on the Broncos' playmaker and sooner or later that arm will lose too much zip to do more good than harm. If Manning faces a setback with current or new injuries before Week 8, it'll be tough for this team to hold serve atop the conference or division.

Bellwether Match Up: As fun as the zillions of Brady-Manning matchups have been over the years, I'm more intrigued by the Broncos' return to Indianapolis in Week 9.  The Colts have inched up on the Broncos ever since Andrew Luck took over in 2012 and even handed Denver its first loss at Lucas Oil during that magical 2013 season.  This one could have big implication for who hosts whom in January.

Prediction: I've decided to stop ruling out Old Man Peyton until I'm wrong, so I'm giving the Broncos a very solid 11 - 5 and their fifth consecutive AFC West title.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case Scenario: First of all, big congrats are due to Chiefs safety Eric Berry who returned to the field this August after beating lymphoma earlier this year.  Berry has long been the heart of KC's defense, and the Chiefs are fortunate to have him back.  On the football side of things, Berry's return and the acquisitions of real-live wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and guard Ben Grubbs mean the Chiefs should be better off than they were a year ago as a respectable 9-win team. Should Denver fall flat and KC up its consistency on offense, don't be too surprised if this team becomes the AFC West darkhorse in the wings.

Worst Case Scenario: Almost half of the Chiefs' games this year are against teams that went to the playoffs last season, and since Andy Reid has taken over in Kansas City, this team's biggest challenge has been competing consistently with their better opponents. If last year's upsets over the Patriots and Seahawks were any indicator, the Chiefs are capable, but they could easily miss the playoffs with one too many turnovers or stalled offensive drives against stiff competition.

Bellwether Match Up: Case in point: the Chiefs host the Broncos in Week 2 before traveling to Green Bay in Week 3.  Pulling off an upset somewhere in there would go a long way to establish Kansas City as a legitimate threat in the NFL's top echelon.

Prediction: If it weren't for what looks to be a very tough schedule, I'd bump the Chiefs up a win or two, but going 9 - 7 this year would be far from a wash and perhaps enough for another postseason bid too.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case Scenario: Rookie wideout Amari Cooper has a breakout year and takes Derek Carr and the Raiders' offense to the next level.  Jack Del Rio gets the most out of Oakland's defense and leads this team to a surprising seven- or eight-win campaign that pumps up those personal seat license prices in L.A. for 2016.

Worst Case Scenario: Cooper is little more than fantasy football window dressing for a team with tons of holes elsewhere on the roster.  Del Rio returns to his late-Jaguars coaching form and keeps this team and Black Hole fanbase mired in misery for one more year.

Bellwether Match Up: Seeing as how they might soon be sharing a stadium in Los Angeles, the Raiders' two divisional tumbles with the Chargers in Weeks 7 and 16 should be awkward fun. Whether they both phone it in or take out their aggression on one another, I'm betting there will be some weird football to remember happening on the Left Coast in December.

Prediction: I'm all in on the Derek Carr-Amari Cooper connection, and the preseason has allowed me to overreact completely.  It should be enough to improve the Raiders' season a little bit, but with questionable roster moves and coaching choices elsewhere, I still don't see Oakland's ceiling being much higher than 5 - 11.

San Diego Chargers

Best Case Scenario: With Philip Rivers locked in for the long term, the quiverfulled bolo-tie enthusiast gives the Chargers his all and has college standout Melvin Gordon to help balance this team's offensive attack like a vintage LaDanian Tomlinson.  San Diego seizes the division from the sun-setting Broncos... and pumps up those personal seat license prices in L.A. for 2016.

Worst Case Scenario: Now that Rivers has job security and a paycheck somehow rivaling that of Russell Wilson, he regresses to the turnover-prone gunslinger Chargers fans know and dread. Gordon resembles fellow trade-up bust Ryan Mathews more than LT, and with Antonio Gates suspended for the first part of the 2015 season, San Diego's offense just isn't good enough to win against better opponents.  The team gets shipped north without much of a fight after another lackluster 8 - 8 season.

Bellwether Match Up: If the Broncos start to decline this season, look for a wild finish for the Chargers over the last five weeks of this season.  They'll face all three divisional opponents including two Denver games in Weeks 13 and 17, so San Diego will likely control its own destiny in December.

Prediction: For me, the x-factor in San Diego is Melvin Gordon. His NCAA accomplishments rivaled those of Barry Sanders at a time when quarterback play is everything, and the Chargers are arguably one running back away from being a serious contender. I think he'll be good enough to offset some but not all of Rivers' worse moments and keep the Chargers afloat at 9 - 7.

More Ill-Fated Win-Loss Predictions!

• AFC North Edition
• AFC South Edition
• AFC East Edition 

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC East

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC East, the division just keeps on giving with its offseason hijinks from the Ballghazi scandal that will never die to poor Geno Smith's broken jaw to Rex Ryan taking in Geno's prodigal jawbreaker.  All told, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen in this circus this year, but let's take a guess, shall we?

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario: Riding high after a surprising 9-7 season in 2014, the Buffalo defense gets even nastier under the tutelage of a Rex Ryan scorned. The Bills offense is still barely serviceable, but it doesn’t matter because no one can score on Kyle/Mario Williams and friends. Buffalo finally breaks its league-longest playoff drought with a wild card appearance, even if it goes nowhere.

Worst Case Scenario: Because only Rex Ryan would immediately claim a guy that broke his own quarterback’s jaw, Buffalo inherits a particularly harsh breed of bad karma for 2015. The Bills’ formerly stout defense is reduced to dust in the wind because this offense can barely stay on the field for more than three downs while somewhere out there Doug Marrone laughs from his armchair.

Bellwether Match Up: Buffalo's vaunted defense will have a heckuva one-two-three punch when they face the Colts, [presumably Brady-led] Patriots and Dolphins right out of the gate. Snagging at least one win by Week 3 would justify some of the swagger Ryan was hired to bring to the Bills as they turn to the easier part of the schedule.

Prediction: I think the Bills are a lot of fun these days - I really do! But with Matt Cassel as their best option under center at the moment, I’m skeptical they can match their surprisingly good 2014 campaign. I see a slide back to 7 - 9.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario: Well, the Dolphins do have kind of a dream scenario to start 2015. The only teams they’ll face before Week 8 that had a winning record  last year are the Bills and the Texans, who will have to get things done without Arian Foster. So this time, Miami doesn’t blow it against a bunch of bad teams and Brady sits out four full games, ultimately giving the Dolphins their first division title since 2008. Surrounded by a more complete offensive arsenal, Ryan Tannehill finally takes the leap we sort of thought he might.

Worst Case Scenario: As they are want to do, the Dolphins blow it against the likes of the Redskinks, Jaguars, Jets and/or Titans while the Patriots go on another tear a la post-Spygate in 2007. Tannehill remains who we thought he was, and newly gilded ‘Fin Ndamukong Suh fails to single-handedly overhaul a porous Miami defense. On the bright side though, Joe Philbin gets the mid-season axe!

Bellwether Match Up: Are you ready for a road trip? Hopefully the Dolphins will be when they visit the Patriots and Bills back-to-back in Weeks 8 and 9. A divisional road win or two would be clutch for a franchise that has desperately needed more than a convoluted Week 17 falling-of-the-dominoes scenario to make the playoffs in recent years.

Prediction: It’s hard to find a rational way for the Dolphins to go less than 5 - 1 over their first six games although the AFC vise should tighten in the second half of the season. So my blindfold and dartboard puts Miami at 9 - 7.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario: Just as they did in their last post-cheating-scandal season, the Patriots burn their competition to the ground week after week on the MVP'ed arm of 100%-non-suspended Tom Brady. New England takes another shot at 19 - 0 with Brady and Belichick *perhaps* contemplating retiring at the top of their game and giving everyone else a stinking chance for once.

Worst Case Scenario: Brady is forced to ride the pine for the first four games of the season, and the combination of Jimmy Garoppolo at QB and a totally rebuilt defense puts the Pats at risk for missing the playoffs for the first time in seven years. Gronk goes down with another season-ending injury and New England barely limps into a wild card spot while Bostonians panic themselves into Patriots doomsday prophecies for the entire next offseason. No matter what though, we’ll always have this.

Bellwether Match Up: We still don’t know what will come of Brady’s suspension, but either way, he’ll be suited up and tasting blood when the Pats face their Ballghazi accusers in Indianapolis in Week 6. Will it be another New England beat-down or will the Colts finally put up a fight? Who knows, but if the Pats win, my guess is they won’t mind running up the score on this one either.

Prediction: I’m going to take the angle that Tom Brady’s suspension gets overturned or held up in a web of legalese that goes well beyond this season. So with this angry hornet taking the field with a four-time Super Bowl winning franchise that still somehow has something to prove, I see the Patriots going 12 - 4 on Vengeance Tour 2.0.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario: Is there a time machine the Jets can take to undraft Geno Smith or at least give him a hockey mask? To play devil’s advocate though, how much worse could Ryan Fitzpatrick be as a backup for Gang Green? He was part of that 9 - 7 Texans team last year after all. Okay, now I get it. Geno Smith getting punched in the face is somehow the best case scenario for the Jets! Woof.

Worst Case Scenario: I legitimately want good things to happen for newest coach/latest victim Todd Bowles, but this roster has all the makings of a two- or three-win nightmare. With turmoil in the locker room, a pile of flaming tires at quarterback and the glaring spotlight of the New York media, there isn’t much that can’t go wrong for the Jets right now.

Bellwether Match Up: The good thing about being at the bottom of the AFC barrel is that you always have the Browns and Jaguars to look forward to! The Jets get to host both teams this year, so surely they can pull off something better than 0 - 16.

Prediction: I should have been more fair in saying that Todd Bowles has some fantastic defensive talent to work with in New York, and that always went pretty well for the guy when he was with the Cardinals. But somebody’s got to be this year’s Yertle the Turtle in the NFL, and the Jets seem like a perfect 3 - 13 candidate.

More Ill-Fated Win-Loss Predictions!

• AFC North Edition
• AFC South Edition 

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC South

Quick Blogger's Note: My submission for the Saints made the cut in Deadpin's annual "Why Your Team Sucks" NFL preview yesterday!  Check it out here.  And if you aren't reading these yet, get on it - you won't be disappointed!

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC South, a perennial underperformer of a division that might just have a chance against the shoddy NFC South and AFC East this year... or not.

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: Brian Hoyer brings his passer miracle-working from Cleveland to Houston and keeps the Texans offense afloat while Arian Foster recovers from a nasty groin injury for the first half of the season.  It's tough to imagine Houston making the postseason with so many cards currently stacked against them, but an 8 - 8 year would be respectable assuming they can't find a way to clone J.J. Watt 11 times.

Worst Case Scenario: With Foster down for the count and the Colts firmly in control in the AFC South, the Texans have another lackluster season with little more than Watt highlight reels to show for it.  Talk turns from the playoffs to juicy top 10 draft picks by Thanksgiving.

Bellwether Match Up: The Texans' biggest bully continues to be the Colts, and unless Indy picks up Curtis Painter back up off the waiver wire, toppling this rival would be a worthy victory for a team with many question marks going into the season.  The Texans host the Colts in Week 5 and will be scrapping for respectability and a reason to hope.

Prediction: I know this sounds bleak and all, but I am concerned about Houston's ability to put points on the board with Foster out for an extended period and the Texans starting their fifth quarterback in three seasons.  BUT if the Jaguars and Titans continue to have their own growing pains, the Texans could do enough to scrape together 7 - 9.

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: With the Colts getting better and better every year since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came town, this team runs the table against the weakly AFC South and NFC South, nabbing a top seed in the playoffs and their first Super Bowl appearance since 2010.

Worst Case Scenario: Seeing as how Indy has made solid roster upgrades with Frank Gore and Trent Cole where they once had holes, I really can't see this team winning less than ten games this season unless something terrible and unexpected happens.  But I'm also guessing the Colts would prefer not to see the Patriots in the playoffs if at all possible this year - being on the wrong end of a January rout would be a major disappointment.

Bellwether Match Up: You guessed it - the biggest game of the season for this team has to be hosting the Patriots in Week 6.  Chuck Pagano's Colts have yet to prove they can out-coach and out-muscle the dynastic Pats, and coming away with a win while New England has Ballghazi vengeance on the brain would give this team a lot more confidence whenever they inevitably meet again.

Prediction: With one of the easiest schedules in the league and a quarterback who has lived up to every ounce of the hype so far, I see the Colts making the leap--or their next leap, anyway--and seizing the top of the AFC at 13 - 3.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: Sigh. I'm never sure how to put the right amount of realism and tact into the Jaguars' best case scenario these days. Maybe Julius Thomas will make Blake Bortles suddenly look like a first-round draft pick.  Maybe Gus Bradley's defense will rekindle some of that mean streak he first instilled in Seattle's Legion of Boom.  But most likely, it will be a minor miracle if Jacksonville in its Red Zone Channel-blasting, swimming pool-installing glory wins six games this year.

Worst Case Scenario: These Jaguars aren't 2009 Detroit Lions bad, but seeing as how they haven't won more five games a season in five years and first rounder Dante Fowler is already out for 2015 with a torn ACL, one or two wins and another blown draft pick next May isn't out of the question.

Bellwether Match Up: We'll know just how low the Jaguars can go depending on how they show up against the fellow bottom-feeder Jets in Week 9.  But thanks to IK Enemkpali's recent intra-Jets sabotage, I'm now spotting the Jags an extra win!

Prediction: Because the purgatory never ends in Jacksonville, this team looks ripe for a 4 - 12 kind of season.  Heck, they might just stay in London after Week 7 to save on moving costs in a couple years.  [Sorry to be mean, non-existent Jaguars fans.]

Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: Marcus Mariota takes a page from RG3/Andrew Luck and has an immediate impact on the Titans' win totals.  Tennessee takes advantage of a weak division/schedule, sneaks into second place in the AFC South and becomes a sleeper favorite for 2016.

Worst Case Scenario: Mariota falls victim to the ever-changing whims of Ken Whisenhunt and can't make the transition to the pros after thriving in Oregon's unorthodox spread offense.  Tennessee still has way too many holes just about everywhere else on the roster to be competitive and the Wiz gets the boot after two non-starter seasons with this anonymously bad team.

Bellwether Match Up: I am geeking out at the possibility of a #1 - #2 duel between Mariota and Jameis Winston in Tampa for Week 1, but it's hard to imagine these two rookie QBs playing their best in their very first starts as pros.  Be sure to check back in on the Titans when they head to Houston in Week 8 - that might tell us more about where this team is going within the divisional pecking order in the long run.

Prediction: I'm high on Mariota.  After all, what else is there to like or even remember about these Titans?  I think he's got the chops to improve this team from two wins to 6 - 10 right off the bat, but Tennessee's front office is going to have to do more in the coming years to build a winner.

More Ill-Fated Win-Loss Predictions!

• AFC North Edition

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us begin with the AFC North, arguably the best division in the league last season with plenty of reasons to be optimistic against the uneven AFC West and NFC West this year.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: The Ravens pick up where they left off last season, a popular dark horse for the postseason. Only this time, they have a much healthier secondary and Justin Forsett after a full offseason to prepare as a starter in the backfield.  With a little more health and cohesion, Baltimore edges out Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the coveted division title.

Worst Case Scenario: After totally rebuilding this team's receiving corps and letting go of run-stuffing anchor Haloti Ngata in the offseason, the Ravens get off to a slow start that proves too much to overcome.  It's hard to envision Baltimore getting to less than 0.500, but the margin of error is razor thin in such a competitive division, and the Ravens miss the playoffs for just the second time in John Harbaugh's tenure.

Bellwether Match Up: Given these past few seasons, every divisional game for the Ravens is monumental for where they'll land in January.  Still, I'm intrigued by Baltimore's game against the San Diego Chargers in Week 8. These two teams have had some wild games against one another over the past few seasons that almost always wind up having playoff implications. And if the Ravens do in fact get off to a slow start, they could find themselves in a must-win situation when the Bolts come to town in October.

Prediction: I'm cautiously optimistic that the Ravens' rejuvenated secondary will help them overcome the loss of Haloti Ngata on the defensive line. Assuming Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco maintain a similar level of production on the other side of the ball, 10 - 6 isn't out of the question.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: The Bengals keep on surprising everyone in the regular season with one of the best secondaries in the league and the three-headed monster of A.J. Green, Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard on offense.  Cincinnati's pass rush bounces back after an unexpected down year and the Bengals finally get their first playoff win in over 20 years.

Worst Case Scenario: Andy Dalton keeps on backsliding and the divisional/conference competition is just too much for the good-not-great Bengals to stay on top.  A catastrophic injury to Green or Hill shuts down Cincy's offense for good, and Marvin Lewis is finally sent packing after another disappointing end to the season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Bengals travel to Baltimore in Week 3 for their first AFC North matchup of the season.  An early divisional road win would give Cincinnati some breathing room while the Ravens adjust to big roster changes and the Steelers deal with Le'Veon Bell's suspension.

Prediction: Cincinnati should be just as good this year as they have been over the past several years, but there's just something about them that always feels a step removed from mediocre to me.  The Bengals have benefited from more health and stability than most teams in the NFL for the past five years, but this could be the year they finally go 8 - 8 like I keep thinking they will.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Josh McCown turns back into 2013 Bears Josh McCown instead of 2014 Buccaneers dumpster fire Josh McCown, leading the Browns to an inspiring early-season surge against the weaker teams on their schedule.  Cleveland even pulls off an upset or two against their division rivals, making them the ill-fated underdog darlings (a la the 2014 Rams) of 2015.

Worst Case Scenario: The Browns keep on Browns-ing with a stockpile of draft busts, a middling journeyman under center and an inconsistent running game. After amassing a little false hope with an easy schedule to start the season, Cleveland crashes and burns when they face off against the Chargers, Ravens and Broncos in consecutive weeks.  A three-win season isn't entirely out of the question.

Bellwether Match Up: Per the schedule mentioned above, the Browns will have a lot more confidence going into the gauntlet if they can come away with a sweep against the floundering Jets, Titans and Raiders in Weeks 1 - 3.  That would go a long way to prove that last year's 7-win campaign wasn't a total fluke.

Prediction: I tried to sprinkle in some context-clue breadcrumbs above, so hopefully you aren't surprised that I'd put the Browns at 5 - 11 this season.  Josh McCown is a significant downgrade from Brian Hoyer, and Cleveland won't get many breaks in the schedule this time other than a few AFC bottom feeders.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: With AFC stalwarts like the Patriots and Broncos facing more potential pitfalls than in years past, the Steelers ride their newly explosive offense and younger defense to the top of the conference.  With a healthier roster next January, Pittsburgh makes the deep playoff run many thought they were capable of before injuries caught up with them in 2014.

Worst Case Scenario: Last year showed us the Steelers' [very high] ceiling when this team is anchored by a healthy offensive line and its top three skill players--Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown--having career years.  That means Pittsburgh could remain a force to be reckoned with, but it could also mean this team regresses to the mean with some performance slumps or major injuries.  Given this team's penchant for inexplicably losing to really bad teams, I could see the Steelers getting edged out of the playoffs (just like the Ravens or Bengals) if they rack up a few unlucky bounces.

Bellwether Match Up: Assuming Tom Brady draws out the court proceedings on that deflation thing and starts in Week 1, this Steelers-Patriots season opener could be a classic. Look for Pittsburgh to exploit New England's largely new and inexperienced defense to challenge the Pats in a shootout.

Prediction: I'm feeling bullish on the Steelers' offensive firepower and the opportunity for younger defensive starters in waiting to step up.  If Pittsburgh can repeat another 11 - 5 kind of year, they should be in prime position to win this division and perhaps book some tickets to Santa Clara in February.