Week 13 Picks for Every NFL Game

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) - The moment we’ve been waiting for over the past month has finally arrived for this NFC heavyweight Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The real winner here is ESPN, but whoever comes away with the W will be one step closer to locking up a much-coveted homefield advantage in January.  To that end, I hate that this game is in Seattle instead of the Superdome, but the Saints still have a chance to win this one if they can beat the Seahawks at their own defensive game and protect the ball on offense.  Nevertheless, I’m already getting flashbacks of Marshawn Lynch in 2011 and that was before Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom were a thing.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6) - I thought about sliding this game down to the Well Drink bucket since Aaron Rodgers still looks like a long shot, but Matt Flynn wasn’t too shabby the last time he played the Lions.  It was the game three multi-million dollar contracts were built on.  Also in play, it’s been a decade since Detroit has beaten Green Bay on Thanksgiving and a full twelve years since they’ve been Vegas favorites. The Lions are definitely good enough to give their woeful fan base some holiday cheer; let’s just hope they don’t get too much inside their own heads.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - Nothing says love on Thanksgiving like the ugliest rivalry in professional football. Expect it to be brutal this time around between two teams desperate to gain ground in the division and in the very crowded AFC wild card bubble.  I have no idea what to think of this one par usual.  The Ravens defense continues to keep this team in a number of games that the offense is doing nothing to support.  The Steelers look improved but still a far cry from dominant.  But on a whim that Pittsburgh is only here to play spoiler to my picks week in and out, I’m pickin’ em.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4) - Yikes, the Colts have taken a big step back since they upset the Broncos and lost Reggie Wayne for the season. Indy is still two games ahead of the Titans, but with Tennessee desperately trying to hang on to the 6th seed in the AFC, this one could have the feel of a playoff game. The Colts may be the better team on paper, but with a stalled running game and Andrew Luck having to do so much more with less, the Titans defense looks to have the upper hand in this one.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - How about them Cardinals this year? Although Arizona still faces an uphill battle to the playoffs this season, I’m in awe of what Bruce Arians has accomplished in his 1.5 years of head coachery. This is a huge game for both teams, and they’ve looked better and better as the season has gone on. Nick Foles has been more hot than cold this year, which should help against a very good Cardinals secondary and with the real glue of Chip Kelly’s offense, LeSean McCoy. In a game that could go either way, I like the Eagles after the bye at home.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) - The NFC South would look very different right now, had the season started a month ago instead of in September.  The Panthers have won seven games in a row in impressive, resilient fashion while Tampa is currently sporting a well-earned three game winning streak.  Although the Bucs are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, this should be a fun one to watch if only to see Darrelle Revis and Steve Smith square off.  For my own self-interest, I’m rooting Tampa but picking Carolina.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1) - You know things are bad when Mark Sanchez or zombie Tim Tebow are starting to look like better options than Geno Smith, who is currently leading the league in turnovers.  The Dolphins have had their very public share of woes as well and an abysmal running game to boot, but Ryan Tannehill and a good defensive front can carry Miami in this AFC East rumble.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-8) - How good would the 49ers be if Robert Quinn decided to switch jerseys on Sunday?  This game may not be as easy as the spread suggests since San Francisco’s offense has struggled mightily against top tier defenses this year.  Nevertheless, with the Rams down to a third string running game and a second string QB, the Niners should still have the upper hand at home, even if the score’s 6 - 3.

Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - Despite the Broncos handling the Chiefs quite well a couple weeks ago, I was really looking forward to this rematch... until Tamba Hali and Justin Houston went down last Sunday.  It would have been fascinating to see if Denver’s offensive line could repeat that masterful performance from Week 11 in the hostile environs of Arrowhead Stadium.  Unfortunately, for the Chiefs to have a chance this time around, they’ll almost certainly have to win in a shootout and as admirable as Alex Smith was in last week’s loss to the Chargers, he still ain’t Peyton Manning.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1) - This has the feel of an "anything goes" game for both teams still with a lot on the line, and like many games this week, I think homefield advantage has big implications.  The Bengals just haven't been as good on the road as they have at home this year though they must be thanking their lucky stars there's no chance they'll have to play in Houston in January this time around.  With Cincy's road woes and a clear matchup winner under center with Philip Rivers, this one is the Chargers to lose.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-9) - Right now, Matt McGloin is either living the dream or having night terrors about his national television debut in Cowboys Stadium on Thanksgiving.  I’m guessing Dallas’s defense is feeling about the same - McGloin’s rise from practice squad fill-in to starter ought to bring some relief to one of the worst defenses in the league... or just roast them on a highly televised turkey platter.  Either way, Tony “Mr. Clutch” Romo is having one of the best seasons of his career, and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt against this non-conference non-threat.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7) - Is it weird to think that these past two weeks might have saved Jaguars coach Gus Bradley from the hot seat?  At the same time, this ginormous two-game winning streak is cutting into the Jaguars’ chances to get another top draft pick to waste on Jacksonville next season.  Maybe the Browns can help them out there.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1) - Is it too early for these fanbases to start caring about hockey instead?  It’s hard to believe these were two 10 - 6 teams just a season ago who now have virtually no chance of making the playoffs this time around.  Oh well.  Maybe the Vikings will be doing a little scouting when Josh McCown comes to town this weekend - he’s got the chops to beat Minnesota.

New England Patriots (-7.5) at Houston Texans - They may share the same win-loss record with the Jaguars, Falcons, and [sort of] Vikings, but it’s feeling safe to say the Texans are the worst team in the NFL this year despite bringing back 7 (?) Pro Bowlers from 2012.  The Patriots will gladly take this bye week after a long, hard-fought overtime win against the Broncos last week.

Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-3) - This is the worst kind of game to pick because there aren’t many incentives for these two teams to do well at this point.  The Falcons are officially the first team to be statistically eliminated from the playoffs this year (!) after securing the #1 seed and falling just 10 yards shy of a Super Bowl appearance.  Wow.  The Bills technically still have something to play for, but they are still the Bills.  In a year where nothing is going right for Atlanta, I suppose they’re due for a soul-crushing week in Buffalo as well.

New York Giants (-1) at Washington Redskins - Yech.  Will there be a jointly sullen press conference with Eli Manning and Robert Griffin after whatever we have to endure during this futile prime time affair on Sunday night?  The Giants have a functional defense, which I suppose gives them the edge this week, but I’d rather watch pumpkin pie congeal than this miserable thing that NBC refuses to flex for the good of humanity.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 7 - 6 - 1
Season Record: 110 - 65 - 1

Week 12 Picks for Every NFL Game

This may be the least amount of time I’ve had to work on game picks in quite a while. Whatever the outcome, I can blame my wins and losses on zero forethought, which tends to work out okay in a highly variable sport. Here are some very abbreviated picks for Week 12:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New England Patriots - Something tells me we're not done with the Brady-vs.-Manning series just yet, now entering the 14th installment and earning the distinct honor of Lady Blitz Game of the Week. These QBs may well meet in January, and neither of them look ready to hang up the cleats either unless Manning ends up taking home that elusive second Lombardi. 2013 Peyton Manning cannot be stopped except that one time, and this season, he’s even greater than Tom Terrific at home.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5) - The Chiefs’ rebounding defense is greater than Philip Rivers’ ability to go multiple games without mistakes.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-2) - Andrew Luck after some rest is greater than Carson Palmer, Bruce Arians or not.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5) - The horribly uneven Cowboys are greater than the horribly uneven Giants. Points will be scored.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New Orleans Saints (-9) at Atlanta Falcons - All of the Saints are greater than all of the Falcons in 2013… unless this is a trap game.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-5) - Adrian Peterson is still greater than Eddie Lacy, but he’s got a shot to be great this week.

Carolina Panthers (-4) at Miami Dolphins - The stingy, resilient Panthers are looking greater than most teams in the league right now, especially those that have been scandalized.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2) - The suddenly solid Steelers are greater than… how are the Browns still in the hunt with Jason Campbell? P.S., Did you know it's been a decade since the Browns have been a Vegas favorite over the Steelers?

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - The Ravens’ somewhat functional offense is greater than a porous Jets’ secondary, Ed Reed and all.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) at Washington Redskins - Jim Harbaugh’s ceaseless outrage is greater than Robert Griffin’s ennui with the Redskins’ play-calling.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9) - Megatron is less lonely than Revis Island.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10) - Everyone is greater than the Jacksonville Jaguars, even the snakebit Texans.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1) - The St. Louis Rams' brutal pass rush is better than a beaten up Chicago defense.

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (-1) - The mystery of Matt McGloin is greater than everything you already know about Ryan Fitzpatrick.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 7
Season Record: 103 - 59

Week 11 Recap and the Three Worst Football Media Traps

I could say a whole lot of things to open up this week's recap, but here is Tony Allen kicking Chris Paul in the face.  That is all.

Week 11: The Good Stuff

The Steelers Turnaround - A good number of teams would throw in the Terrible Towel after letting a solid offense like the Lions putt up over 320 passing yards in a single half.  But credit the Steelers for doing what few defenses have been able to do this year - completely shutting down Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford, who went just 3 for 16 in pass attempts in the second half.  Ben Roethlisberger had as good of a game as I've seen in a couple seasons with a 4 TD afternoon to cap off the comeback win.  It looks like the Lions and Steelers are just about as predictable as I suspected they would be, which is to say not at all.

Bobby Rainey and Matt McGloin, Household Names - By my count, at least 11 teams have started backup QBs at some point this season, and some of them have had some very good outings.  Enter Matt "Who?" McGloin, the Raiders benchwarmer behind Terrelle Pryor and Matt Flynn who had a shockingly good debut on the road against the Texans with 3 TDs and completions to six different receivers on Sunday.  Also rising out of nowhere, Tampa's second string RB Bobby Rainey who had a better day than any other running back this week with 3 TDs and 160 yards of his own on the ground.  Now, I'm a firm believer that there's a shelf life to 99% of guys like this not named Kurt Warner or Tom Brady because film study and weekly wear and tear are great equalizers, but kudos to McGloin and Rainey for having a great day no one expected.

A Burfict Game - If you were worried about how the Cincinnati defense would rebound after Geno Atkins went down, remember they just lost two pitiful games to the Ravens and the Dolphins.  But this week, Vontaze Burfict crushed it with a forced fumble for a touchdown and 15 tackles to go along with the Bengals D's three interceptions and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown.  Who needs Andy Dalton, err, Geno Atkins anyway?

Nailed It!  My Best Week 11 Prediction - True, the Broncos-Chiefs game was mildly entertaining for two and a half quarters with KC holding Peyton Manning to one touchdown, but Alex Smith is going to have to step up his game and his risk-taking two weeks from now to make things more interesting:

• " I'd love the Chiefs to extend their Cinderella story for another week, but when it comes down to it, is there any chance that Alex Smith can go toe-to-toe for four quarters with Manning?  I think not at Mile High."

Week 11: The Bad Stuff

Gary Kubiak, The Decider - There were plenty of interesting coaching decisions going on Sunday but perhaps none more so than Gary Kubiak benching QB Case Keenum before the fourth quarter for Houston’s whipping boy, Matt Schaub. Keenum wasn’t having a banner day with 1 TD, 1 INT and 170 passing yards, but it certainly didn’t seem to warrant pulling the plug for the much more maligned Schaub, who ended up with a lower completion percentage and no TDs anyway. Given 1) that the Texans are all but statistically eliminated from the playoffs, 2) that Keenum has demonstrated at least some big play ability since taking over and 3) that Schaub faced a hostile home crowd that wasn’t going to help with his recent head case-edness, the move certainly didn’t make Kubiak’s hot seat any cooler. Especially by making Andre Johnson so very sad.

The Forty-Whiners - Here we go again. Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers nation make it abundantly clear that the universe is out to get them and they should have at least three more Lombardi trophies by now because of it. I am referring both to Sunday’s personal foul call against Ahmad Brooks that took away a sack-fumble near the 50 with less than four minutes to go and the alleged holding no-call that would’ve given the trailing Niners the ball and a fresh set of downs against the Ravens in February. I’ll grant that both calls were controversial for a reason - they weren’t clear-cut one way or the other upon review and not reviewable for that matter. However, they don’t actually make up for the fact that the 49ers had plenty of chances to win both games and got outplayed. If everything else happened exactly the same way in this one except that Brooks’ “foul” occurred in any other quarter, we wouldn’t even be talking about it. We’d be talking about Colin Kaepernick completing roughly 50% of his passes compared to Drew Brees’ 70%, Frank Gore being held to less than 50 yards and the 49ers earning half as many first downs and punting twice as often as the Saints. I know I’m a homer on this one, but it’s a pet peeve that extends far beyond team loyalty. Hey, that gives me an idea for a weekly feature...

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 11 Prediction: Sometimes the riskier picks pay off in this topsy-turvy league, and other times, they just make you look ridiculous:

• "Let's be clear here.  The Giants are still a pretty bad team.  Trust an Eli Manning fantasy owner on that one.  They ought to win this one and keep the 3-game winning streak on the burner, but I'm going to blindly throw the ball into triple coverage that Eddie Lacy can run on New York and Scott Tolzien is just good enough to manage this game."

Week 11 Feature: The Three Worst Football Media Traps

Seeing as how I've been doing this for a year and a half without even getting paid, I get how easy it is to fall by the wayside with oversimplification and recycled/borrowed narratives about football games and players.  Without turning a mirror to yours truly, here are the three worst football media traps:

1) Blaming an Entire Win-Loss Outcome on One Bad Call - See the “Forty-Whiners” above. To be fair, there is exactly one instance where this is totally allowable: the great Fail Mary of 2012. Even then, the three-ring circus around replacement referees and a sullen Aaron Rodgers blinded fans to the fact that a new defensive superpower was rising in the West that sacked Rodgers eight times and kept his golden arm out of the end zone all night. Bad calls happen, and they happen to every team, usually for both sides in the same game. But to characterize one alleged/real lapse in human judgment as though it overrides the collective outcome of 120 - 140 other plays minimizes what the 106 athletes and their coaching staffs did or didn’t do to get them there in the first place. Good, bad or indifferent, these almost always seem to flare up around quarterback hits and how we should just let players play… right next to the mandatory monthly column about how great the NFL is doing at researching concussions indefinitely.  ***Update: Go figure I write this thing before that thrilling conclusion of Monday Night Football - Referees picking up a flag without a real explanation is sketchy to say the least, but to apply the same theory here, if the Patriots hold the Panthers to a field goal and/or use their timeouts more wisely, they aren't trying to drive the ball into the end zone with 4 seconds left on the clock in the first place.  It doesn't negate the fact that Carolina is a very dangerous team right now.  Just sayin'.***

2) Talking About Poor Performance Only in Terms of Character Issues - A.k.a. every article ever written after Dez Bryant has a mediocre day or the Jets' Dave-and-Buster's-Gate this past weekend.  It's a problem not only because the rhetoric is almost always focused on black athletes but also because it's so convenient to wield only when the game situation fits.  Haven't heard about Bryant's sideline temper tantrums in a while?  Chances are the Cowboys have won an elusive three or so games in a row.  If Dallas is in a tailspin, we'll be reminded of Father Jerry putting Dez on a curfew two years ago.  Did Tom Brady throw his helmet at the feet of some sad sack undrafted third stringer during a loss?  He was just showing leadership, silly; there's no discord in the Patriot Way locker room!  As long as your team is consistently winning, your "character" is a meaningless, intact thing that stays on the writer's shelf... unless you're Ray Lewis.

3) Knee Jerk Mondays - This may be the toughest trap for anyone who does this regularly to avoid.  How many times have you read a tidbit about your favorite team's game the day after where it was obvious the writer just read the stat sheet with no context for what happened?  And more importantly, the narrative is based purely on one game with little bearing on how the team has performed the rest of the season, usually involving some random guy we've never heard of having one good game.  This single knee jerk echo chamber is what gets people like Matt Flynn a plural number of multi-million dollar contracts.  This is also what allows "fantasy football gurus" to make a living on predictions no one is accountable for backing up for their results.  And this is what we had to deal with after two years of Tim Tebow.  Be thankful we're talking about Matt Flynn instead these days, I guess.

Week 11 Picks for Every Game

It's about to get real in the final stretch of the season, but there are few Top Shelf games this week to show for it.  At least the hotly anticipated first blood will be drawn between the Chiefs and the Broncos this weekend.  I'll be picking the obvious there and whole lot more in your Lady Blitz Week 11 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-8) - Boy do I hope this one's close and that all of those KC defensive Pro Bowlers are worth their salt against MVPeyton.  I'd love the Chiefs to extend their Cinderella story for another week, but when it comes down to it, is there any chance that Alex Smith can go toe-to-toe for four quarters with Manning?  I think not at Mile High.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - Just how good or bad are the 49ers this year?  Save perhaps the first week of the season when they handled the Packers at home, they haven't exactly had a quality win.  Beating the Saints in the Superdome would go a long way in restoring confidence in this preseason favorite, but I think New Orleans looks like the more balanced team for a first time in a while this time around.

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) - The Panthers had no problem shutting down Colin Kaepernick on the road, but can they do it again against a Patriots team that just seems to be hitting its stride with a healthy Gronk and Danny Amendola?  Carolina's bread and butter has been stopping the run, but the Patriots are just fine with throwing the ball 45 times a game.  There's no counting the Panthers out these days, but if for wishful thinking alone, the Pats put surging Carolina back in its place on Monday night.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans - Here lie two teams coming off of embarrassing losses to the Rams and Jaguars, respectively, with some divisional dust left to settle.  Both the Colts and Titans have had a lot of positives to hang a helmet on this year, and if Tennessee's defense can step back up to its early season form, they may have a shot now that Indy is reeling without its full arsenal.  Nevertheless, when the question comes down to Andrew Luck or Ryan Fitzpatrick, it ain't much of a question.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers - Did you know it's been 20 years since the Lions claimed a division title?  Reggie Bush is no Barry Sanders, but he sure is good enough in tandem with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, and the Steelers sure don't have a lot of answers on that once-vaunted defense these days.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) - Fact: the Eagles have yet to win a game on their home turf this year, so the Redskins may have a dumb luck chance.  Of course, Washington is also responsible for our collective overreaction to Chip Kelly's "unstoppable" offense back in Week 1 with little evidence to show that the defense will be remotely improved this time around.

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins - The Chargers will be heaving a sigh of relief after this game against the Dolphins, their final early east coast game during a very challenging schedule.  You can definitely make a case that Miami's ship has sailed because of a bizarre locker room scandal, but just as importantly, they're down two offensive lineman and even worse off in the running game.  The Chargers have no such problem running all over SunLife with Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-3) - It may not be all that exciting between Joe Flacco and Josh McCown, but this is a pretty big game for two teams looking in from the outside in their divisions.  I have no idea what's going to happen with so many questions on offense for the Ravens and Bears, but the home team has been more consistently productive to this point with and without Jay Cutler.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - Somehow, three quarterbacks later the Browns could still technically win the AFC North and the Bengals/Ravens are doing a great job of drawing out Cleveland's futile hopes as long as possible.  You can set your watch to the annual Cincinnati plateau, so don't count the Browns totally out.  Just don't bet on it like this weirdo.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-6) - Let's be clear here.  The Giants are still a pretty bad team.  Trust an Eli Manning fantasy owner on that one.  They ought to win this one and keep the 3-game winning streak on the burner, but I'm going to blindly throw the ball into triple coverage that Eddie Lacy can run on New York and Scott Tolzien is just good enough to manage this game.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm conflicted about this meaningless game.  Tampa finally overcame its winless season against a Dolphins team that was rather distracted about not being distracted last week.  Atlanta might be down to literally Harry Douglas if Tony Gonzalez can't start, but they also get back Sean Weatherspoon on defense.  The Falcons can win the Futility Bowl, I guess.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5) - Conundrum: Since the Jets have been riding the win-loss-win-loss rollercoaster, what happens after a bye week?  They haven't been the prettiest of contenders, but much like Leslie Frazier in Minnesota last year, Rex Ryan continues to make something out of nothing.  In an anything-goes second tier in the AFC, I like these Jets.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-7) - The poor Texans are officially cooked with Arian Foster out for the season and fewer wins than the Jaguars and Buccaneers in the past month.  But I love what Case Keenum is cooking, and given the Raiders' inconsistencies on defense, Houston at least deserves a moral win in front of whatever fans remain.

Arizona Cardinals (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Don't look now, but the Cardinals could actually overtake the 49ers for the 2-seed in the NFC West with a little help.  Arizona is ready for the Bruce Arians revolution to begin, but that also means they may not be low enough on the draft totem pole to replace Carson Palmer next season.  In the meantime, they should enjoy the rec league game in Jacksonville.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-13) - What would the Vikings give for it to be 2009 again right about now?  Instead they get another trip to the ninth circle of visiting teams in Seattle where they have no prayer unless AP's got about 400 yards in him.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 9 - 5
Season Record: 95 -52

Week 10 Recap and 10 Suddenly Key Games in the Final 7 Weeks

Nothing is certain in football, not even a Jaguars loss or an Andrew Luck comeback, apparently. The Colts, Bengals, Packers and 49ers seemed like sure playoff bets a month ago, and now they’ve got sub-0.500 teams breathing down their necks. Preseason favorites like the Falcons and Texans don’t have a prayer while the once-downtrodden Chiefs and Panthers look like a shoe in. In other words, we’ve got ourselves a growing vortex of a dogfight in both conferences, and it should make for an excellent remainder of the season, hence this week’s Lady Blitz feature, 10 Suddenly Key NFL Games in the Final 7 Weeks. But first, the good stuff:

Week 10: The Good Stuff

Saint Domination - Most unfortunately for me, I fear this really belongs in the bad stuff for the Cowboys far more than it belongs with the Saints' good stuff.  But if the Pat O's Hurricane is half full, New Orleans played as good of a game from start to finish (except for kicker Garrett Hartley) as it has since that 2009 Super Bowl run.  Drew Brees had a field day with the Dallas defense with nearly 400 yards in passing, 4 TDs and a 139 passer rating.  The Saints running game had its best outing in over 20 years with 240 yards in rushing, heck, even Mark Ingram had a good day.  The team broke its franchise record in yards on offense and the league record for first downs in a single game (40).  Compare that to the Cowboys who had just 43 plays in the game, less than 200 yards of offense and just 20 minutes in time of possession.  I'll feel a whole lot better if New Orleans is able to repeat something like this on the road, but until then, at least Rob Ryan had a good night.

St. Louis Spoilers - Even with the Jaguars and the Buccaneers racking up their first wins of the season this week, nothing was more surprising to me than the Rams throwing the hammer down on the high-flying Colts at Lucas Oil.  The Rams may have had to start backup QB Kellen Clemens, but they could have won with Tebow the way that defense and that guy Tayvon Austin played; St. Louis shut Indianapolis down until the 3rd quarter with four forced turnovers, three sacks and only 20 yards of rushing allowed.  Austin will continue to get a lot of attention for his monster game and tremendous speed--and he should--but this win also belongs to a defensive line that never let Andrew Luck even think about comebacks.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 10 Prediction - The Lions-Bears rumble on Sunday was a division classic not featuring Aaron Rodgers for the first time in a while. Detroit moved into sole possession of first place in the NFC North by outlasting Chicago on a failed 2-point conversion, but they owe a whole lot of success from the rest of the game to Calvin Johnson and Reggie 100+ Yards Bush:

• "I think this one has all the makings of a shootout, but Detroit has to like what it saw in Chicago’s lack of rushing defense despite Seneca Wallace being under center. With Reggie Bush and a very healthy Stafford-to-Megatron connection in tow, the Lions ought to have the last shot this week."

Week 10: The Bad Stuff

Colin Kaepernick's Search Party - To be totally fair, I'm no longer in denial that the Panthers are actually a very good team that is playing like it consistently for four quarters.  This was Carolina's most impressive win in a long time, and they made Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense look like Mike Singletary was still coaching.  The 49ers went just 2 for 13 on third downs, Kaepernick was sacked 6 times, and he managed less than 100 yards in the air.  When San Francisco's running game gets going, it's easy to gloss over No. 7's woes this season, but Niners fans should start worrying about this team in two-minute drill situations.  In fact, San Francisco is now ranked dead last in passing yards this season, and Kaep's looked particularly toothless in all of their losses to date.  Take away that first read and he looks like a deer in the headlights these days instead of the scrambling read option machine that had nearly every defense reeling last year.

The Bengals-Ravens... World War zzzzZZZZzzz - Say what you will about the woes of the NFC East, at least it's interesting.  The AFC North, on the other hand, will apparently be wrestling victory from the jaws of defeat to inch into a 4th seed judging by that marquee matchup between the Ravens and Bengals on Sunday.  Oh sure, there was one truly insane Hail Mary for the ages to send this un-classic into OT, but the other 60 some-odd minutes were downright painful.  Cincy racked up over 130 yards in penalties--which is over four times as many yards as Ray Rice had on the ground--and the two teams combined for 6 turnovers compared to just 8 first downs on the day including overtime.  All's to say, if the Bengals are mulling over a long-term deal for Andy Dalton, they ought to see how that worked out for Baltimore's mediocre quarterback.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 10 Prediction: This is what happens when you blindly tempt fate.  You're welcome, Jaguars fans:

• "I could fabricate a story about setting an orphanage on fire in this paragraph and I'm still assuming you're going to skim right over it.  The Jaguars are making a great case for going 0 - 16."

Week 10 Feature: 10 Suddenly Key Games in the Final 7 Weeks

If you need any more evidence of parity in the NFL, look no further than the "Games to Watch" I predicted for the second half of the season back in July.  Ten weeks in, they're mostly stinkers other than our next Brady-Manning rivalry chapter in Week 12.  I feel safe in saying there are 9 teams that are all but certain to miss the playoffs (Raiders, Steelers, Bills, Texans, Jaguars, Rams, Falcons, Vikings, Buccaneers) and 6 teams that look like they'll almost definitely have a spot (Chiefs, Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Seahawks, that other 7 - 2 team) but there's still plenty to be decided on the bubble and in the seeding.  With that in mind, here are 10 suddenly key games left on the schedule:

Kansas City at Denver/Denver at Kansas City, Weeks 11 & 13 - We'll know just about everything we need to about these two teams in the next three weeks.  The Chiefs are the last unbeaten standing in the NFL, but they've had a powderpuff schedule filled with backup QBs and the bottom of the AFC barrel.  The Broncos have looked equally dominant but have yet to face a top ten defense.  You know that jazz about unstoppable forces and immovable objects - let's just hope these are evenly matched enough to anticipate in the postseason.

Green Bay at Detroit, Week 13 - So the Lions are leading the NFC North and the Packers have already dropped two more games in Aaron Rodgers' absence?  Makes that revolving door of backup QBs in Green Bay look a little silly, eh?  I'm guessing Rodgers would sooner have his non-throwing arm amputated than miss this Thanksgiving classic.  It could mean the division title and possibly a playoff spot when the dust settles.

New Orleans at Seattle, Week 13 - Pundits have been eyeing this Monday night affair since about Week 5 for good reason.  The Saints and Seahawks look like the two most balanced teams in the NFC and possibly the league, and this game may well decide homefield advantage and pretty much the conference champ if they stay that way.  Why can't it be in the Superdome again?

Carolina at New Orleans/New Orleans at Carolina, Weeks 14 & 16 - The Panthers meteoric rise was capped off Sunday with a hardfought win against the 49ers at Candlestick.  Now the division title is within reach, but the Panthers' and Saints' styles couldn't be more divergent.  We could have ourselves a shootout, a grind or both, and we'll likely have a division winner by Week 16.

Detroit at Philadelphia, Week 14 and Green Bay at Dallas, Week 15 - If I'm betting on playoff spots today in the NFC, it's looking like the West and the South are most likely to lock down wild cards.  That means a mad dash between the North and East and little room for error with 7 out of 8 teams (sorry, Vikings) still within reach of a division title.  In the web of conference tie breakers and division ranks, these look like potential elimination games for the more promising but flawed teams in the bunch.  I'm thinking the offense will be involved.

New York Jets at Carolina, Week 15 - In a rare high stakes inter-conference game, the Jets and Panthers may well be in the same business of locking up a playoff seed in December.  They've both played the part of punishing defenses and versatile but mostly game-managing offenses.  Expect some unorthodox antics if it's a last hurrah for either team (most likely the Jets).

Baltimore at Cincinnati, Week 17 - Ugh, do we have to do this again?  Yes, if the Ravens find any semblance of a running game or January-to-February Joe Flacco to keep them nipping at the heels of the uneven Bengals.  A lot could happen between now and Week 17 with these two rivals looking at roughly the same strength of schedule ahead, so the battle for an 8 - 8 season, division title and the chance to be beaten immediately by the Broncos or Chiefs looms large.

Week 10 Picks for Every NFL Game

The divisional and conference stakes are getting a bit higher this week with the season's end in sight, and bubble teams like the Panthers, Chargers and Eagles have no time like the present to make a statement against the Goliaths of our time.  With daylight savings ending last week, you weren't planning to go outside Sunday anyway, right?  Here are my Week 10 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6) - This Lady Blitz Game of the Week is a mighty test for the white-hot Carolina Panthers. That Carolina defense won’t be rolling over for Colin Kaepernick, but they’ll be fighting uphill on the road against a very good team coming off of a bye. I’ll certainly continue to raise my eyebrows if the Panthers eke out a win or even a very close loss, but they just haven’t beaten anyone this good yet, so I lean Niners.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Chicago Bears - That Josh McCown is pretty good, no? The Bears offense is humming along just fine in Jay Cutler’s absence, but they also got a huge break when Aaron Rodgers went down on the first drive last week. I think this one has all the makings of a shootout, but Detroit has to like what it saw in Chicago’s lack of rushing defense despite Seneca Wallace being under center. With Reggie Bush and a very healthy Stafford-to-Megatron connection in tow, the Lions ought to have the last shot this week.

Denver Broncos (-7) at San Diego Chargers - The Chargers' playoff window is quickly closing with two divisional rivals already with 7+ wins, so expect San Diego to put up a real fight against the Broncos this week.  I hope Mike McCoy throws in the kitchen sink in trying to slow down Peyton Manning and keep Denver's defense at bay, but the Broncos will still roll.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7) - Do you suppose Rob Ryan wants to win this one?  I think the Saints defense will do all it can to make that happen after a rough loss in New Jersey last Sunday.  Despite the roller coaster record, Dallas won't be an easy team to beat, especially if the Saints continue to struggle with injuries in the secondary and with their receiving corps.  Nevertheless, Drew Brees should have a field day with that Cowboys pass defense.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2) - With Aaron Rodgers out for a few weeks with a broken collar bone, don'tcha kind of feel like anything can happen in this one?  Seneca Wallace did not look great in Green Bay's suddenly thin Monday night lineup but Eddie Lacy did. Philly could definitely struggle if the Packers can get physical with the run game early and often.  Nevertheless, I'm banking on the Packers having to be so one-dimensional that Nick Foles can toss a TD or two more than the Rodgers-less Pack.

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) - If there's one matchup in this game worth watching, Andrew Luck sure gets hit a lot, and the Rams' Robert Quinn and Chris Long sure like to hit quarterbacks.  If St. Louis can be disruptive enough at the line of scrimmage for three quarters, they might buy backup QB Kellen Clemens just enough opportunities to stay in the game.  But I don't need another shred of evidence to know that Andrew Luck will find a way anyway.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons - It feels plain wrong to want the Falcons to win this one, but it sure would help the Saints out in the hunt for top NFC seeding.  If Atlanta was remotely healthy on defense, they might be able to punish the Seahawks' questionable offensive line and eke this one out.  Their one shot may be Steven Jackson returning to lineup to take some pressure off of the passing game, but I don't expect it to be enough for a Seattle team that seems to get all the favorable bounces this season.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens - Similar to the Chargers-Broncos rumble above, this is likely the Ravens' last hope at a playoff bid this season, so we may see a glimmer of the Super Bowl team that played its best with its back against the wall a year ago.  Baltimore has a bit more of a shot now that Bengals' All Pro DE Geno Atkins is out for the season but unless the Ravens' running game does something different than it has in the first 9 weeks, I'm not betting on it.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) - Poor Houston just can't catch a break these days between Gary Kubiak's health scare and yet another fourth quarter collapse last Sunday.  You gotta love what rookie QB Case Keenum has done to give the Texans some life, but with more rest and time for film study than previous opponents, I have a feeling that Cardinals defense is going to give Keenum a lot more trouble than he's used to.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Washington Redskins (-2) at Minnesota Vikings - Who would've thought these teams would fall so far from grace this year after their surprising 2012 playoff run?  No matter, there could be a ton of offense in this one, which means lots of good news for my fantasy team.  I'm not sure who really has the best shot at this one since both defenses are terrible, but since the Redskins have more weapons while the Vikings lost an important one in Kyle Rudolph, Washington has the edge, I guess.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-12) - I could fabricate a story about setting an orphanage on fire in this paragraph and I'm still assuming you're going to skim right over it.  The Jaguars are making a great case for going 0 - 16.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - Hoo boy, there's not a lot of rhyme or reason to why these teams are where they are these days.  The Steelers looked to be getting back to mediocre for a couple of weeks before getting thrashed on defense by Terrelle Pryor and Tom Brady.  The Bills have beaten some decent teams and lost big to everyone else.  I'm tempted to go Buffalo with the return of E.J. Manuel, but I'm waiting for Pittsburgh to prove me wrong for picking them par usual.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7) - The Giants aren't out of the woods entirely by any means against a Raiders team with flashes of competence when they're not making Nick Foles look like a genius.  But given the early start time and a bye week for New York to try just about everything differently, maybe they'll remind us how little it takes to seize control of the NFC East.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Maybe the Dolphins didn't want the Buccaneers to go unopposed in the competition for most dysfunctional locker room this week.  No matter, it's basketball season at this point anyway, and these teams don't appear to be going anywhere fast.  With the loss of two offensive linemen and a whole lot of distractions, the Dolphins are in prime position to let this one slip through their fingers.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 5
Season Record: 86 - 47

Week 9 Recap and the Lady Blitz Mid-Season Awards

Oy, it's always a little harder to write these things when your team disappoints, and Sunday was a "what else now?" kind of game for the Saints.  Two tipped-pass interceptions, a missed field goal and a bobbled would-be TD reception by Nick Toon keep replaying in my mind as Rex Ryan got the best of brother Rob yet again.  But hey, if there's a silver lining or two to cling to and if you have to lose games each season, go for the away games against a non-conference opponent.  Also, those Seahawks look more vulnerable than I would have thought though the Panthers are really starting to breathe down New Orleans' neck.  Okay, enough of that - here's the rest of my Week 9 recap and our Lady Blitz Mid-Season Awards.

Week 9: The Good Stuff

Surprising Replacement QBs - With Peyton Manning on a bye and a relatively dull schedule of games for Week 9, you would've thought there'd be a number of low-scoring yawners to bypass on Sunday.  Instead, we got shockingly good performances out of four replacement QBs: Jason Campbell, Case Keenum, Josh McCown and Nick Foles.  Campbell has put up 5 TDs and over 500 yards of passing in two games.  Despite losing a last-minute heartbreaker, Case Keenum is already making Houston forget that Schaub guy with 350 yards in passing and 3 TDs in prime time on Sunday night.   And kudos to McCown for sticking to Marc Trestman's aggressive passing attack in the hostile environs of Lambeau Field. But the heavyweight title this week goes to Nick Foles who is really taking that QB competition seriously in Philadelphia.  Against a decent Oakland secondary, Foles put up a staggering 7 TDs and had only 6 incompletions on the day.  Michael Vick might want to start thinking about his golf game...

Panthers on the Rise - The NFC South just got a whole lot more interesting with the Saints losing in New York and the Panthers clocking another dominant win against a divisional opponent.  Carolina has now won its last four games by a cumulative margin of over 80 points in an incredibly balanced fashion.  Even though Cam Newton didn't have the best game on Sunday, the Panthers had four players with 20+ rushing yards and forced four turnovers against the Falcons.  To be somewhat fair, Carolina has only played one game so far against a team with a winning record (Seahawks) and lost, and they'll face six teams in the next 8 weeks currently 0.500 or better, but these guys are playing as lights out as could be expected by any top brass in the league.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 9 Prediction - My only pick against the favorite ended up paying off this week, as the Dolphins pulled off an unlikely victory in OT thanks to said underrated defense:

• " It’s very tempting to pick Cincy in this one given the Bengals’ lights out performance last week, but I’ll give Ryan Tannehill a shot at home with a solid and underrated Dolphins defense."

Week 9: The Bad Stuff

Richie Incognito, A Real Name and a Terrible Person - So maybe Antonio Smith was onto something when he gave Richie Incognito a helmet to the jaw back in the preseason.  It didn't take long for rumors of rookie hazing and blatant racism to lead to dismissal for the Dolphins' offensive lineman.  And when I say rumors, I mean pretty obvious evidence that this joker is a 'roided out idiot who would make O'Bannion from Dazed and Confused blush.  I have no concept of how often this level of "hazing" happens in the NFL and I probably don't want to know, but good for Miami for showing Incognito the door after what appears to be a very short career of false entitlement. 

The Swiss Cheese Curtain - It's a gross visual and not really all that great of an analogy, but who are these 2013 Steelers anyway?  The once-punishing Steel Curtain let Tom Brady and his third-string offense drop 55 points and 600 yards on the misfit band of dinosaurs and clueless young'uns.  Mike Tomlin can take away all the ping pong tables he wants, Pittsburgh's due for a serious shakeup this offseason, and it's probably a good thing for the long term. 

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 9 Prediction: To be fair, I thought Matt Barkley would be starting again for the Eagles this week, but there's no side-stepping how dominant Nick Foles proved in Oakland on Sunday:

• "Who would’ve thought six months ago the Eagles would be jealous of the Raiders’ quarterback situation?"

Week 9 Feature: The Lady Blitz Mid-Season Awards

We are already 133 games into the 2013 season, meaning we're over halfway to the playoffs and one potentially miserable Super Bowl in the wintry Meadowlands in February.  That means it's time to hand out the totally fake and meaningless mid-season awards:

• Best Game To Date - We've had our share of wild and entertaining games so far this season, mostly at the Dallas Cowboys' expense.  Chief among them had to be that 99-point, 1,039-yard affair with Peyton Manning's Broncos where defense need not apply.  Denver looked completely unstoppable until that afternoon in Arlington when Tony Romo put up 500 yards and 5 TDs.  With a chance to win the game in the waning minutes, naturally this thing could have only ended with a loss-clinching Romo interception.  Classic. 

• Best Game to Come - Some games I predicted to be worthwhile this year still hold and some are destined to be House Punch material (Falcons vs. Seahawks next week, anyone?).  Especially given the Patriots' rise back to prominence on offense this week, I think the next chapter in the Brady-Manning rivalry still holds as an excellent matchup.  But also keep an eye on conference seeding in Week 13 when the Broncos and Chiefs face off in the AFC and the Saints and Seahawks face off in the NFC... I mean, who wants to play a Super Bowl in the Meadowlands anyway?

• Biggest Bear - Some teams just aren't what they seemed to be from August looking forward, and there sure are a lot of disappointing teams out there when it comes to potential playoff repeats.  In terms of sheer talent and lost potential, my August self would be stunned to know that both the Falcons and the Texans are a pitiful 2 - 6 at the moment.  It's enough for Arthur Blank to get out a couple pints of ice cream and put The Notebook on repeat for Coach Mike Smith.  Houston and Atlanta can do little more than eye draft prospects at this point and hope the window hasn't closed for the next couple of years.

• Biggest Bull - Like I said earlier, I would not be surprised at all to see the Panthers make a run at a wild card or even, gulp, a division title.   They've got a lot of things going right between a few years of great draft classes and a much more aggressive mindset in Coach Rivera's play-calling.  The Chiefs have certainly been a surprise, but I picked them to get to the wild card round this year, so my AFC Bull has to be the New York Jets.  They have yet to win or lose two games in a row, but their wins against the Saints, Patriots and Falcons have been impressive and exemplary of Rex Ryan's ground and pound comfort zone.

• The Lady Blitz Kiss of Death - Welp, I finally picked against the Falcons for the first time this season in Week 9 after having Atlanta rack up 11 wins and the division title in the preseason.  But if only to spite me, they dropped 5 games where I had them winning and lost two of their most important offensive weapons for an extended period of time.  I didn't see this collapse coming, exactly, but it does reflect the cautions I put forth about Atlanta's riverboat gambling style of front office moves: "While some moves work out swimmingly, others create holes and expose previously unknown vulnerabilities that cannot be solved overnight." The Falcons bet big on Julio Jones, Roddy White, Stephen Jackson and Tony Gonzalez--not a bad bet on the face of it--but with Gonzalez being the last man standing and a very thin running game and defense, theses Dirty Birds are cooked.

• My Super Bowl Mulligan - I'm not really all that disgusted with my Super Bowl pick of the Packers vs. Patriots, although the severity of Aaron Rodgers' injury last night could obviously be a factor.  If Seattle can hang on to #1 seeding in the NFC, I can't see any team including the Rodgers-led Packers beating them at CenturyLink Field.  I still like the Pats in the AFC now that Gronk is back and they're actually honoring that run game, and we know how other favorite Peyton Manning tends to do in January...