Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round 2013

If I could sum up this weekend's matchups in a well-known axiom--other than that the NFC is insanely more competitive these days than the AFC--it would be a test of whether or not defense wins championships.  In every case save the Denver/Baltimore matchup, one team seems to have a lot more defensive beef than the other and varying degrees of offense to match.  Without further adieu, I'll let you imply my mixed feelings on the matter:

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

The Run-Down: In the first of three (!) 2012 regular season rematches this weekend, the Ravens will try to carry forward the momentum of their last home victory under Ray Lewis' squirrel dance against a much scarier road opponent.  The Broncos outscored the Ravens by 17 points just three weeks ago, but both Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning have looming questions about their durability down the playoffs stretch.

How the Ravens Can Win: The most important thing the Ravens need to do this week is forget that Week 15 in Baltimore ever happened.  Fortunately, they have one of the NFL's greatest emotional leaders of all time back on the field to help out there.  Kumbayas aside, the Ravens have a lot of potential to stay competitive on offense with the right one-two punch of Joe Flacco's deep ball and Ray Rice's screens and draws.  They will need to mix up play-calling in these areas well to get the Broncos' defense spread out and worn down.  You already know the implausible spiel about Peyton Manning on defense, but I think the Ravens should look back to the Broncos' Week 3 in Atlanta for inspiration.  The Falcons threw a lot of confounding looks into the mix with their "Amoeba" style of defense and it paid dividends with three early Peyton Manning INTs.

How the Broncos Can Win: Interestingly enough, I think this game will rely more heavily on Denver's defense than people might expect.  As mentioned above, Peyton Manning doesn't always reach his peak performance in the playoffs--especially in cold weather--and he's got more of a challenge with a healthier, more determined Ravens defense this time around.  So the Broncos will need to stuff Ray Rice enough to pressure Joe Flacco into Bad Joe Flacco, keeping the aging Baltimore defense on the field as often as possible.  Rice's playoff fumble woes could also be candy for the Vons and Elvises of the world.  Throw in a couple Peyton Manning no-huddle attacks with Ray Lewis gasping for breath and the results could be deadly.

Prediction:  I'm keeping this one on upset alert for two reasons: 1) we still don't know the Broncos' ceiling since they've played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year; and 2) Ray Lewis is not going to let Baltimore give up on this game before it's begun.  Even so, I'll take Peyton Manning on an average day over Joe Flacco on an exceptional one, and I see the Broncos breaking away in the fourth quarter in a big way.  Broncos 31, Ravens 17

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The Run-Down: Saturday spells Packers-49ers bookends for one of these teams that last met in Week 1.  Both teams have remained on the shortlist of Super Bowl contenders since then, but they look a lot different.  Aaron Rodgers and Packers' running game have stepped it up in the second half of the season while Colin Kaepernick has replaced Alex Smith with generally decent results.  Nevertheless, both teams have had enough ups and downs this season to suggest this one's still very much anyone's game.

How the Packers Can Win: As an abundance of analysts have made clear in recent weeks, the Packers first need to pray that All Pro Niners DE Justin Smith is benched or playing at significantly less than 100%.  That alone will free up more room to run the ball and score at will.  If God/Tebow have other things to do that day, Aaron Rodgers needs to put on the passing fireworks that only Aaron Rodgers can because I'm doubtful the Packers' running game will survive a healthy San Francisco box.  When Rodgers is on and his receiving corps has sticky fingers, he can stretch the field like no other, a skill that even the best defense has no cure for.  On the other side of the ball, Green Bay needs to contain and pressure Kaepernick inside the pocket.  This guy is as dangerous as any scrambling QB otherwise, but he's still new on the job and susceptible to mistakes when he feels caged.  As with Minnesota last week, if Green Bay can hold San Francisco to field goals in the red zone (with a much shakier kicker, mind you), Rodgers can make up the difference in TDs.

How the 49ers Can Win: If the Niners' statement win in Foxboro showed us anything recently, it's that this team now has the offensive chops to sprint alongside the league's best when it comes out of the tunnel swinging.  The Packers have looked vulnerable this season against many teams including this one that can ground and pound when needed (Seahawks, Vikings, Giants), and in many of the same instances, when the Packers have gotten off to a slow start.  The Niners offense should put this theory to the test with an aggressive early game plan on offense and maybe one timely trick play to keep the crowd going and Green Bay second-guessing itself.  LaMichael James has emerged recently as in a decent rushing tandem with Frank Gore to stoke the embers and manage the clock after that.  On defense, the 49ers should practically sell out for the passing game, focusing almost entirely on getting Aaron Rodgers as frustrated as possible early with its dominant pass rush and stingy secondary.  That would produce quite the head game for a QB who's a little too used to getting his way.

Prediction: This is probably my single toughest pick of the weekend since we're probably looking at the two best teams in the NFC whose styles don't play well together.  Especially with home field advantage and extra rest, well-balanced San Francisco just seems to have more paths to victory on Saturday than the Packers do.  49ers 38, Packers 31.

  Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Run-Down: The Atlanta Falcons are more desperate than ever for their first playoff win in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, but for the fourth time in five years, they may be facing the hottest underdog in the NFC with all the confidence in the world.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The Seahawks first and foremost need to punch the Falcons in the mouth on defense by taking away deep threats Julio Jones and Roddy White with its elite secondary.  Despite the NFC-best record, Atlanta hasn't yet proven outright it can keep pace with more competitive teams when the chips are down and the Falcons' most explosive players are taken out of the equation.  Forcing turnovers would be psychologically costly to this team that much prefers to win by playing it safe.  Speaking of which, Russell Wilson will need to do what he does best by protecting the ball and making smart plays even if Atlanta comes out swinging just like he did in Washington last weekend.  Marshawn Lynch is primed to wear down a subpar rushing defense and let the passing game open up, but patience may be required with a postseason-hungry Atlanta squad.

How the Falcons Can Win: The most important intangible for the Falcons on Sunday will be mental toughness.  The Seahawks may be the scariest team in the NFC right now, and the Falcons have plenty of postseason hangups waiting to bubble up, so Atlanta needs to prepare to bounce back and stick to the game plan with long, sustained drives even if the first few series don't look so good.  The Falcons will also want to take advantage of the Seahawks' biggest hole on defense, as pass rushing monster Chris Clemons will be out for the remaining season with an ACL tear.  With Clemons out of the picture, Matt Ryan will have more breathing room to wait for the open throws and lean on the play action game, which will make his offense all the more dangerous when it's in its element.  On defense, the Falcons need to contain Russell Wilson and take advantage of his tendency to hang on to the ball too long.  Atlanta doesn't blitz much, but this is an occasion where it could pay off hugely in front of a home crowd that wants to believe this year will be different.

Prediction: This is a tougher pick than this Falcons hater would like it to be.  No one knows when the Seahawks will have gone past their peak until they have, and the Falcons have been equal parts brilliant, mediocre, and lucky this season with a solid home field advantage to boot.  I actually changed this one at the last minute so I may be kicking myself in a couple of days, but I think it was absolutely bone-headed of the Seahawks to travel DC-SEA-ATL over a seven-day period instead of staking it out on the East Coast and figuring out how to fill Chris Clemons' void.  Plus, I think Atlanta will finally do everything in its power with better coordinators on both sides of the ball to eke out a playoff win.  Falcons 20, Seahawks 17.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5)

The Run-Down: Early signs point to snooze patrol, as the Texans stumble their way into the second round of the playoffs only to meet the team that handed Houston a 42 - 14 beat down in Foxboro a month ago.

How the Texans Can Win: Per last Saturday against the Bengals, Houston is a team that succeeds most often when it has ample opportunities and time to score with the slow grind and play action.  Translation?  The Texans defense is going to have to stop Tom Brady much more effectively than it did last time, especially in the first quarter when New England likes to wreak its explosive havoc.  J.J. Watt was utterly neutralized in the double-team here before, so Houston needs to get more creative with disguising its blitz packages and defensive reads to free up Watt and confuse Tom Brady, who would love nothing more than another cake walk with this secondary.  Remember, the Pats struggled mightily against their more physical opponents earlier this year (the Ravens and 3/4 of the NFC West: Niners, Seahawks, Cardinals).  If Matt Schaub can get the ball to TE Owen Daniels as effectively as he did last week with quick slants, Houston can also diversify its offensive attack in order to get back to its favorite weapons.

How the Patriots Can Win: Tom Brady's style of offense is built to prey on what the Texans have struggled with all season: teams that throw quickly and spread out across the field. Don't be surprised to see the Patriots go no-huddle from the start to keep Houston's front seven reeling and panicky with a few big Steven Ridley runs up the middle to really twist the knife.  On defense, New England also exposed the Texans in a big way last time around by holding Arian Foster to under 50 yards, which is turn forced Matt Schaub to throw the ball a whole lot more often than he feels comfortable with in play action.  Stopping Houston on third down will be particularly valuable for the Patriots so that the Texans cannot settle into the game plan they've clung to all season.  Unlike the Pats, they cannot afford to play from behind.

Prediction: Fun fact: the Patriots/Texans score last time around was the same as the Alabama/Notre Dame BCS Championship turned out to be earlier this week.  The underlying commonality?  The winners overpowered and outsmarted their lesser opponents in all phases of the game from the first snap.  As much as we've wanted to cheer for the underdogs in these situations, this is a power differential that the Texans cannot surmount this year.  Patriots 35, Texans 20.



So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 3 - 1
Against the Spread: 2 - 2