San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Atlanta Falcons
The Run-Down: The Falcons are the only new kids on the block in the NFL's final four this season after notching their incredible last-minute victory against the Seattle last week and their first playoff win in the Matty Ice era. They face a 49ers squad that throttled the Packers' defense last weekend by putting up 580 yards and 45 points under the direction of never-better QB Colin Kaepernick.How the 49ers Can Win on Offense: San Francisco held up very well next to an offense last weekend that is similarly explosive to the Falcons' offense. While the game had the makings of a shootout going into the third quarter, the Niners would break away in a big way with their feet, amassing an astounding 320 rushing yards in the process. Colin Kaepernick proved elusive on the ground and just as formidable as Frank Gore. We quickly saw the combination of confusing looks (that sent usually-sharp Clay Matthews on wild good chases) and dominance in time of possession (the Niners' 38 minutes to the Packers' 22) tip the scales mightily. A good coach like Jim Harbaugh will likely adjust the game plan this weekend a bit to limit the impact of the Falcons' preparation, given Kaepernick's tremendous versatility. Even so, it's hard to imagine that the Niners couldn't find plenty of success doing exactly what they did last weekend against an Atlanta squad that struggled against mobile Cam Newton twice in the regular season and lost a 20-point lead last week once Seattle finally turned Russell Wilson loose in the second half. The Niners' offensive line is among the very best and the Gold Rush (I assume I wasn't the first to come up with this...) could get a big advantage on a fast indoor field. The big thing here is for the young Kaepernick to stay grounded and play smartly. Just because the Packers' defense made things look easy doesn't mean Asante Samuel, Thomas DeCoud and a very opportunistic secondary will let the Niners off the hook in the passing game.
How the 49ers Can Win on Defense: Although the Niners' clocked just one sack against Aaron Rodgers last weekend, they pressured him enough to stay out of sync for most of the second half and forced two momentum-killing turnovers in the process. San Francisco will definitely need to generate pressure much more consistently against Matt Ryan than the Seahawks did, keeping the battle at the line of scrimmage. We'll never know how that last game might have turned out with Seattle's best pass rusher Chris Clemons suited up, but Ryan had plenty of time to wait for the open pass in the pocket including a number of seam routes from speedy WR tandem Roddy White and Julio Jones. Ryan also got valuable relief with a solid Turner-Rodgers rushing effort. Despite winning in the majority of these types of matchups in the regular season, the Falcons--and Matt Ryan in particular--have struggled against more physical defenses that were able to stop the run (Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers). Conversely, the 49ers have played their best football this year on the road against the league's elite QBs (Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau, Drew Brees at the Superdome, Tom Brady in Foxboro). San Francisco has the swagger and strategy to win in the trenches, but they will need an A+ effort in the secondary too to take some of the burden off of vulnerable DE Justin Smith and avoid costly mismatches with Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez.
How the Falcons Can Win on Defense: Containing Colin Kaepernick in the pocket is a lot harder than it might sound for Atlanta, especially with DE John Abraham's health and mobility in question. The Falcons' front seven have played admirably for the most part this year, but they will ned to channel a season-best effort to contain the edges of the pocket against a very good Niners offensive line. Like Russell Wilson last week, Colin Kaepernick can get a little too comfortable scrambling around in the backfield and hanging on to the ball too long. Notching a sack or two in these circumstances will really limit San Francisco's run-heavy ways. Moreover, I would not be surprised to see Falcons DC (and former 49ers HC) Mike Nolan create some bizarre and deceptive defensive looks here, like the Amoeba formation I recently referred to from the Falcons-Broncos Week 3 bout. A great deal of the 49ers' success under Colin Kaepernick is due to his experience with the read option. If Nolan can get some three card monty out of his linebackers and trick Kaepernick into the wrong read, this young player can get out of sync quickly and force his team into some bad mistakes.
Prediction: I hope I'm not getting too eagerly sucked into my own ill-intentioned desire to keep the Dirty Birds out of the Superdome, but the Falcons don't match up well against the 49ers in this one. When you look back at all of the Falcons' losses and near-losses against lesser teams, they have some startling things in common: 1) a very weak running game from Atlanta (SF is 4th in run defense); 2) a big day for the opponent's running game with bonus points for option QBs (SF is 4th in the run there too. Did I mention they put up over 320 yards in rushing on that Candlestick turf last week?); and 3) pressuring turnovers from Matt Ryan. I won't rule Atlanta totally out because they tend to win the turnover battle more often than not and Matt Ryan is one of the best in the 2-minute (or 30-second) drill. But this one is the 49ers' Championship to lose. 49ers 35, Falcons 27 (because Mike Smith never goes for 2).
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8)
The Run-Down: Call it a game of destiny or a boulevard of broken dreams. The Pats are on a hot streak looking to get to their sixth Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era in hopes of winning their first Lombardi in over five years. The Ravens have been to the AFC Championship twice in the Flacco-Harbaugh era and lost both times, but they are now hoping to give the retiring Ray Lewis one last shot at a Super Bowl appearance.How the Ravens Can Win on Offense: Even when defenses know exactly what Joe Flacco is going to do, he knows he has the receiving corps to land just enough deep balls to get the job done. He's got one of the very best cannon arms in the NFL, and while the Patriots defense is improved from this time last year, Flacco can trust that he will get some production out of Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones and Anquan Boldin. Even so, John Harbaugh ought to get an early read on how "Ahab" Bill Belichick is feeling about all of this. There are some interesting audibles from last year's Super Bowl in the moments Eli Manning was driving the Giants down the field for the final go-ahead score. Belichick asked for extra help from his secondary on Victor Cruz, leaving Mario Manningham open enough to make the game's most important catch. If one of Flacco's big receivers sees early success, the Pats' defense may very well lighten up on some of his other weapons, so it's on this QB to find the quick one-on-one matchup that will keep the chains moving. Even better, if the Pats totally sell out for the pass, Ray Rice should be able to get a lot of production with the help of the Ravens' newly reconfigured and much improved offensive line. Even though the Texans still fell short last weekend, they had a much better day with Arian Foster than they did in December because the Houston line was able to push Vince Wilfork & co. into some big gaps that a little guy like Rice can also exploit. Keeping the tempo in the Ravens' hands and out of Tom Brady's will be key in the second half.
How the Ravens Can Win on Defense: Say what you will about the Ravens' age versus Tom Brady's no-huddle speed, they still match up pretty well against New England, or at least they have in the past. As I mentioned last week, the Pats struggled against physical defenses including this one earlier this year, and the amount of pressure Baltimore was able to put on Peyton Manning last week shows promise for this week. The only way to stop the Pats' Oregon-style quick snaps is with big momentum killers: sacks and turnovers. Baltimore will really need lightning to strike twice to have another weekend like the divisional round in this category, so let's hope Ed Reed's worst playoff game will be followed by his ball-hawking best, especially now that a little more caution will be granted to the rising stock of CB Corey Graham. The matchup between Ray Lewis and Pats RB Steven Ridley should be a treat but the head of the Patriots' snake is Wes Welker, and DC Dan Pees is going to have to find some creative and legal ways to slow him down and keep him in front of defenders. Good luck.
How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: I think the Pats' best defensive effort this year was against the Texans the first time around, and the Ravens could suffer a similar fate in those circumstances. New England kept Arian Foster south of 50 yards on the ground, eliminating the play-action game and forcing Matt Schaub to throw a whole lot more than he was ever intended to. Joe Flacco can certainly stretch the field with his arm strength more than Schaub, but he's been known to make some very bad decisions and force throws when Ray Rice is not firing on all cylinders and he feels the fate of the world (game) is on his shoulders. Baltimore was never more than a possession away from tying or beating the Broncos last weekend, and that likely contributed heavily to Joe Flacco's success mentally and in the field of play. So by stuffing the run and forcing the Ravens into third-and-long situations, the Pats will significantly up the chances of racking up unanswered points under Tom Brady and making Flacco throw the ever-predictable bomb. And you better believe Belichick's secondary will be on the chopping block if they let anyone get behind them this time.
Prediction: I think this game will be dramatic, back and forth, and riding high on emotions for two teams that could not want a Super Bowl bid more. And I think this one is going to be a lot closer than the spread would suggest on sheer will power alone. The Pats have one of the best home records in the playoffs while the Ravens have one of the best road records, and these two teams are not intimidated by each other. I'm all in in my heart for Ray Lewis' Ravens to get the swan song they deserve, so since I picked against them last weekend, I'll try to unjinx them again this weekend by picking Tom Brady's Pats in the clutch doing in their 2-minute drill what Joe Flacco did last weekend in Denver. Patriots 30, Ravens 28
So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 6 - 2
Against the Spread: 4 - 4
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