Who Should I Cheer For in the Super Bowl?: Reasons to Love and Hate the Ravens and 49ers

There are the few and proud Baltimore and San Francisco fans who are waiting in hot anticipation for their shot at another Lombardi Trophy on Sunday.  (For the record, I like a lot of things about both teams here, but I gotta go Ravens for my fellow die-hard lady football friend Jeanie on this one).  But for that other 94%-ish of fans who've watched their own teams go down on the spectrum from predictable to agonizing fashion this year (Falcons much?), you're probably still on the fence about who to adopt until September finally rolls around again.  Fear not, dear reader! Here's the fair and balanced Lady Blitz guide for you to weigh your options with Reasons to Love and Hate the Ravens and 49ers:

Reasons to Love the Ravens 

• Ray Lewis' Storybook Ending - Let's just get this one out of the way, and also not forget about potential fellow retirees like safety Ed Reed and offensive lineman Bryant McKinnie.  If you believe in games of destiny, Old Spice could not have fashioned a more outrageous ride into the sunset for Lewis than for him to recover from what was thought to be a season-ending triceps injury and take his AFC bridesmaid of a team to the Super Bowl for one last shot at a ring.  Velvet antler what? Set aside those PED and murder allegations for a moment (because they're coming).  If you want a more satisfying ending than the Seinfeld finale or The Notebook could afford, then you'll be cheering for Lewis to bring closure to a remarkable career on the highest note in the NFL.  As SNL recently purported, I would not be surprised to see him ascend at the 50 yard line after one final squirrel dance.

• Joe Flacco's Unlikely Rise to Elite - It's hard to envision a more appropriate doppelganger to the 2011 Giants than these Ravens.  A big reason for that is QB Joe Flacco's mercurial rise from a middling game manager to one of the best postseason QBs we've seen in a while not named Manning or Brady.  We all scoffed when he took a page from Eli and said he was one of the best in the preseason, and we felt totally validated for scoffing through Week 15, but Joe Cool has found postseason potential I don't know that even he thought he had before.  He has quietly answered his critics with big plays, minimal mistakes and a fighter's resilient mentality on the road against some of the best teams in the AFC.  Too bad even his father doesn't want to party with him if he wins the big one.

• An Underdog Breakthrough - Like Bruce Lee in Game of Death, the Ravens faced one of the toughest roads to the Super Bowl in recent memory, having to go up against increasingly difficult opponents in hostile settings during these playoffs.  They handled Andrew Luck with relative ease at home but then had to beat a hot Peyton Manning at Mile High in double overtime only to visit a hotter Tom Brady in Foxboro a week later.  To make it through that gauntlet at all is mighty impressive, but for the Ravens to get better and better against tougher opponents each week is more amazing, especially considering where they were in the regular season.  As 4-point Super Bowl underdogs, they will have their biggest test by far against a supremely well-rounded 49ers team, but you better believe Baltimore is going to leave everything on the field on Sunday to vie for the Lombardi.  Given the number of times the Ravens have knocked on the door in the playoffs with close but disappointing results, they'll be worthy underdogs to root for now that they've broken through against the odds.
• Finally, Variety in the AFC - Over the past nine Super Bowls, only three teams have represented the AFC (the Patriots, Steelers and Colts) compared to eight different teams in the NFC (the Giants are the only repeaters).  Consider the Ravens a welcome reprieve from the February deja vu of Bill Belichick, Peyton Manning and Troy Polamalu that we've grown accustomed to over the past decade.  It's refreshing to see some new faces and emerging stars whose stories we don't know as well yet.  Take aforementioned vets Joe Flacco, Ed Reed and Bryant McKinnie who've really held the team together this season.  Or the deadly WR pack of Jacoby Jones, Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith--who played the best game of his career earlier this season mere days after his brother died in a motorcycle accident.  Or the real [Memphis native!] Michael Oher who's helped his team thrive by moving away from the blind side.  Or perennially reliable and versatile RB Ray Rice.  Or heck, undrafted rookie kicker Justin Tucker who has had a banner year after previous kicker Billy Cundiff ended the Ravens' 2011 Super Bowl hopes with a big whiff in Foxboro.

Reasons to Hate the Ravens

• Waaaay Too Much Ray Lewis - Overexposure, thy name is Super Bowl media days, or more appropriately, Ray Lewis media coverage.  As storybook as Ray Lewis' swan song season has been, we've heard an awful lot about it and that unresolved murder case and now that alleged use of banned substances to help him bounce back at an ungodly pace from his recent injury.  Wherever Lewis goes, he attracts attention and not necessarily the good kind. For those hoping the Ray story lines will be going the way of Tebowing and the Thong Song a little sooner than later, a Ravens loss would erode Lewis' narrative more quickly and give more than a few fans a sense of moral victory.
• Bernard Pollard's One Man Wrecking Ball - Maybe this just applies to the Patriots, but Bernard Pollard plays a dangerous brand of football that has created a troubling wake of destruction over the years.  On his bounty-ful resume, Pollard ended both Tom Brady's and Wes Welker's seasons previously with tackles that tore both players' ACLs.  He also took out Rob Gronkowski's ankle in last year's AFC Championship and in effect made Gronk useless in Super Bowl XLVI.  This year, he gave Pats RB Stevan Ridley a concussion that cornered New England into a very one-dimensional offense.  If ever there was an angel of death in the NFL, Pollard is unquestionably that guy, and if everyone played the way he does, we might not have too many players off the PUP list in 30 years indeed.

• Joe Flacco's Inconsistency - Is it just me, or is anyone else nervous that Joe Flacco might regress in this game against a much better defense than he's had to face earlier in the postseason?  Baltimore fans have enough history with Flacco to know that he can be frustratingly streaky with sensational big plays on the one hand and woefully inefficient outings on the other.  Is this momentous postseason hot streak the sign of true progress for the emerging QB or just a karmic balance that is about to swing back to zero?
• General Mouthiness - One thing the Ravens do with consistency that I'm not a fan of is running their mouths about their opponents.  I get that Baltimore needed all the mental swagger it could muster to prepare for this incredible playoffs run, but the play speaks for itself. There's really no need to wish the Patriots "well" at the Pro Bowl or call their offense a gimmick after you've held the top scoring team in the NFL to 13 points in front of their home crowd.  Let's not forget Ray Lewis' obtuse pentecostal ranting whenever anyone raises a question about his character.  Undeniably, the Ravens have walked the walk this postseason, but it feels more than a little classless to take cheap shots after dominant performances or to invoke Jaysus and the rattlesnakes when you've got a big PR stain on your past.  At least this week, the smack is a little more mellow with the whole Harbowl dynamic.

Reasons to Love the 49ers

• Kaepernick Thrills - Side Note: I probably had way more fun than I should have making fun of Alex "Put me in, coach!" Smith this season, especially after he was benched, but I cannot express enough how impressed I've become with Smith's classy, selfless demeanor riding the pine despite having a career year.  But there is little question that Jim Harbaugh knew what he was doing when he made Colin Kaepernick QB #1 for the duration of the 2012 season.  Kaepenick has been a play-making diamond in the rough, and now he'll have the chance to make a splash on the biggest stage of the game.  I've already spoken about Kaepernick's ability to make big and mostly smart plays in the clutch, so you can expect him to show up on the highlight reel next Monday with some jaw-dropping passes and scrambles that will keep that Baltimore defense verrrry honest.
• Innovative Coaching - Until now, the 49ers' cutting edge play-calling has flown under the radar while other styles like the Patriots' wicked fast quick snaps have gotten ample attention.  No more, after what this postseason has shown us about San Francisco's aptitude for beating opponents in a multitude of ways.  The Niners' staff adjusted in a big way after an uneven close to the regular season with a whole new sandbox of plays in January from that pistol-heavy attack against the underprepared Packers to vertical pocket plays with TE Vernon Davis against the Falcons.  OC Greg Roman has proven himself to be a very outside-of-the-box thinker, and football nerds who love the Xs and Os will be in for some real treats when the Niners go to work on a smart and experienced Ravens D.
• A Perenially Elite Defense - Some including myself didn't think San Francisco would quite top the defensive pack again this year after 2011 yielded an extraordinary number of takeaways and minimal injuries.  True, the Niners didn't force as many turnovers this time around and had a couple fewer wins than last season, but you can't argue with what this defense has accomplished in 2012-13, especially now that they're in the Super Bowl.  San Francisco boasts four All Pro defensive players (five if you count injured second-teamer Justin Smith) and for good reason.  They've beaten Brady in Foxboro, Brees in the Superdome, Ryan in the Georgia Dome, and Rodgers twice, once in Lambeau.  You can count on some big hits and momentum changers when this group faces a revitalized Ravens offense, and the matchup between Baltimore's offensive line and San Francisco's front seven should be excellent.
• Jim Harbaugh's Facial Contortions - If ever there was a foil to Bill Belichick's Vulcan disposition on the sideline, Jim Harbaugh is that guy.  The fact that he already has an irregular heartbeat at his age is both troubling and all too appropriate for his passionate, rage-y antics.  He also has a pretty firm handshake, so I'm told.  Consider the West Coast Harbaugh a real x-factor in entertainment between plays on Sunday-- there's bound to be a player's mental mistake or a ref's botched call that will send his neck veins a-poppin' and his clipboard a-flyin'.  It'd be awesome to watch Jim's reaction after a Gatorade bath and even more awesome if he blows a challenge flag on something crazy.

Reasons to Hate the 49ers

• Terrible Fans - There are some NFL fan bases that are infamous for their unsportsmanlike conduct toward referees, opposing teams/fans, and even their own bumbling teams at times. 49ers fans may not have the national reputation that those cells of savage Raiders and Eagles fans do, but they can be a pretty unsavory bunch, especially during the playoffs.  For example, following several reports of antagonism from Saints fans during last year's divisional round in Candlestick, San Francisco police had to dress up as Giants fans for the NFC Championship to "sting" the hostile crowd.  In this year's divisional round against the Packers, nearly 100 fans were ejected from Candlestick and 25 were arrested for their public intoxication- and assault-laden charms.  On the flipside of the overzealous brand of Niners fans, how about the bandwagon that has crawled out of the woodwork this year?  I've seen more San Francisco decals and threads pop up in the past month than in the past 18 years combined. Where were all these proud diehards during the Mike Singletary or Mike Nolan era?

• Reentering a Dominant Era - Sigh.  As the sun gets closer to setting on the Saints' chances of another Super Bowl in the Drew Brees era, I am reminded of the olden days when New Orleans and San Francisco were "rivals" in the old-school NFC West.  No matter how promising a few of those seasons might have looked for the Saints at times, we were always stuck going against freaking Joe Montana and then freaking Steven Young and getting the proverbial wedgie from the divisional bully.  Now the Niners are looking nearly unbeatable for the long haul again with a stable of Pro Bowl defenders, a very talented coaching staff and a hot young QB that aren't going anywhere for a while in all likelihood.  If San Francisco takes home a sixth Lombardi this weekend, there's a good chance American will be seeing these guys in the postseason again and again and again until the Niners are victim to as much schadenfreude as the Patriots or the Cowboys.
• Colin Kaepnerick Pulling a Cam Newton - Don't get me wrong, Colin Kaepernick is still a long way away on the toolbag spectrum from self-proclaimed entertainer and icon Cam Newton.  But he's definitely on his way with his soon-to-be-mocked signature touchdown celebration and TBD flood of overplayed endorsement deals.  For those who think the biblical sleeve tats and admittedly heartwarming adoptive upbringing will shield No. 7 from the clutches of unlikability, how's this for consideration: young Colin has already made a legal move to trademark his "Kaepernicking" touchdown celebration, which by the way, is just kissing one's biceps.  Need we remind ourselves that this novel "trademark" has been used by sailors, bodybuilders and Hulk Hogan for centuries without the aid of intellectual property rights?  Heck, those guys weren't Kaep-blocked by a facemask either.
• Chris Culliver Pulling a Sarah Palin - Thank Kanye this happened during media day or I'd be just about out of brain power to finish this way-too-long post.  Many NFL players have been pretty vocal in recent years in support of gay rights, most notably Minnesota Vikings punter Chris Kluwe and Baltimore's Brenden Ayanbadejo, who has been using his Super Bowl spotlight to advocate for the issue.  Some players aren't so warm to the idea including 49ers CB Chris Culliver who said on Tuesday that neither he nor his teammates would accept a gay player in the locker room and that gay players should stay closeted for at least 10 years after retirement.  So that oughtta be an interesting homecoming for him in San Francisco.  Talk is talk, but after facing immediate criticism for his comments, Culliver... apologized?... by stating, "The derogatory comments I made yesterday were a reflection of thoughts in my head, but they are not how I feel." Deep stuff.  If Culliver is thinking about moonlighting on the debate team, I recommend that he think about it for about 10 years after retirement first. 

5 Other Things the Ravens and 49ers Have in Common

I started crafting this post in anticipation that we would be all kinds of inundated with Harbaugh brothers chatter for the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl XLVII, but it's been a bit quiet so far.  Maybe everyone else had the same idea and backlashed against the backlash, or maybe I'm just speaking too soon.  Either way, I'll go ahead and admit that I'm having trouble settling on a game pick yet for this one.  A big reason is that there are quite a few strengths and performance traits these two teams have in common beyond their coaching DNA.  If you're in need of stocking up on Super Bowl party conversation ammo, here are 5 Other Things the Ravens and 49ers Have in Common to look for next Sunday:

Legendary Veterans - 17-year veteran LB Ray Lewis will continue to get the lion's share of attention as an all-time great hoping to go out on top the way of John Elway, Jerome Bettis and Michael Strahan.  But he won't be the only legend on the field on Super Bowl Sunday.  Teammate Ed Reed has been with the Ravens for 11 years, and he'll be making his first Super Bowl appearance along with the other 95% of Baltimore's roster.  Reed recently said he plans to return for the 2013 season, but who knows how tempting it could become for him to follow suit with Lewis if they go home with rings?  The 49ers also have Hall of Fame-caliber players hoping to start their Lombardi collection this year.  WR Randy Moss has been in the league for 15 years, coming close to Super Bowl glory multiple times.  During Moss's rookie season with the Vikings, they went 15 - 1 and were heavy Super Bowl favorites before being upset by the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship.  Moss was also with the Patriots during their 16 - 0 season, which they extended to 18 - 0 before suffering another big upset against the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.  Hmmm, come to think of it, I hope Jim Harbaugh's not a superstitious man there.  The 49ers also have 11-year and 16-year veteran All Pros DT Justin Smith and K David Akers in their arsenal.  Smith is way more likely to stick around after this year than Akers, but the confetti will be extra sweet for one of these sets of vets who've seen it all and, for the most part, have only dreamed of winning on this stage before.

Bold Personnel Decisions - Both Jim and John Harbaugh took bold mid-season risks with their personnel this year that have paid dividends in the postseason.  Jim Harbaugh famously benched veteran QB Alex Smith for good after he suffered a concussion in Week 10 despite the fact that Smith was having his best season and leading the league with a very efficient 104 passer rating.  Few could have guessed that second-year backup Colin Kaepernick would somehow be able to top that right out of the gate and through the postseason.  Kaepernick's sheer athletic ability and versatility have allowed him to take big risks with big rewards that Smith never could, and now the 49ers have stomped their way to their first Super Bowl appearance in nearly two decades.  An equally bold but less talked about move was for the Ravens to fire OC Cam Cameron in Week 14 after Baltimore scored 28 points but blew an 8-point lead in the waning minutes against the Redskins.  Even though Cameron's offense had been uneven, it seemed like an odd time to many fans to destabilize the coaching staff with the Ravens still on their way to the postseason.  Save a rough debut against a hot Broncos team, new OC Jim Caldwell has made the Ravens' offense come alive with a much stronger line and play calling that suits Joe Flacco's deep ball skills.  Since the switch, Baltimore's offense has emphatically outplayed that of Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  Good stuff.

Killer Red Zone Defense - Even in this passer-dominant era, defense still apparently wins championships.  The Harbaughs' teams most recently put up a combined score of 35 - 0 in their respective second halves on Championship Sunday, meaning they shut out two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL (Falcons, Patriots) during that time.  Baltimore's red zone defense has been the league's second best in 2012 with opponents scoring TDs on only 43% of their red zone trips.  San Francisco was somewhat uneven during the regular season, especially with Justin Smith on the bench, but the Niners have really stepped it up this postseason with a conversion rate of just 38%.  If it comes to this in the Super Bowl, expect the Ravens to have an edge with reliable rookie kicker Justin Tucker over the 49ers' David Akers, who is having the most inconsistent year in the league and in his career.

Resilient QBs - You gotta love the way these two quarterbacks have flown onto the radar in January for a variety of reasons.  Colin Kaepernick seized his moment as a backup this season in ways few could have expected, especially coming from the shadows of the efficient and more experienced first rounder Alex Smith. Kaepernick had some early missteps with the Rams and Seahawks and some great moments against the Patriots, Bears and Saints, but he's become quickly battle-tested in the postseason too.  Despite starting the playoffs with a pick six, he shredded a very experienced Packers defense in the divisional round and then led his team to victory after an 0 - 17 start in Atlanta.  That is some serious resolve for a young'un or a veteran.  Joe Flacco has had a different but even more impressive journey to New Orleans.  After pulling an Eli and insisting he was elite in the preseason, Flacco looked equal parts brilliant and powerless in 2012.  His lowest lows have had to be between notching a 0.3 QB rating against the Texans and going on a 1 - 4 slide to end the regular season.  Be honest, if I had blogged from a February 2013 time machine to tell you Flacco bested Brady and Manning with a ridiculous 115 passer rating in the postseason, you'd probably want to lock me up in a padded room for a while (I know, the time machine premise certainly doesn't help there either...).  But here comes Joe Flacco on an improbable ride to the big dance with only his own and Jim Caldwell's confidence setting him in motion.  Let's hope he can get at least as many rings as Trent Dilfer.

Coaching Adjustment Bureaus - Now for the great equalizer that I think will make this Super Bowl very difficult to predict.  Above all else, these two teams have been able to adjust the game plan in big ways this year to get where they are now; this is also evidenced by that 35 - 0 second half run a week ago.  I've already touched upon many elements of the Ravens' game that have made them so successful in the postseason.  They've reconfigured their offensive line with huge success thereby enabling Joe Flacco to attack the opposition's secondary instead of operating primarily from Ray Rice in the backfield.  On defense, Baltimore has also been very resilient in response to the many injuries they've had this season from Terrell Suggs to Ray Lewis to Haloti Ngata to Ladarius Webb.  The next men up--Paul Kruger, Cary Williams and Corey Graham among others--have made names for themselves not just managing games in the regular season but forcing a lot of frustrating mistakes from aforementioned Mannings and Brady later in the year.  The 49ers have also found ways to make a variety of game plans work this year.  They've had success with the traditional passing game from Alex Smith and complementary ground-and-pound that we grew accustomed to in 2011.  They've had success with Colin Kaepernick's play action, read option and scrambling styles of offense.  And just when everyone thought they'd do the same last week against the Falcons, OC Greg Roman switched it up again with a pocket passing package for the middle of the field that obviously caught Atlanta off guard.  These are two teams that have thrived in January because they've won many a chess match deploying new strategies that have elevated their changing rosters.  Now the question becomes, which Harbaugh will out-Harbaugh the other Harbaugh on Sunday?

Grading Each 2012 NFL Playoff Team

Le sigh.  We are less than two weeks away from the end of all that is good(est) and holy(est) in sports, professional football.  Not that I am remotely biased there.  But on the bright side, I could not have been more ecstatic yesterday that the Ravens stormed their way into the Super Bowl while the Falcons were sent packing, far, far away from the Superdome where they are not allowed in February.  (On the bright side, Falcons fans, at least your team is at no risk for food poisoning in two weeks, which is more than anyone can say for Roger Goodell...)  It'd be more than a little silly to do a full recap with just two games that you probably saw for yourself, so let us diverge this week by grading each 2012 NFL playoff team.  Objective these grades are not, but given each team's potential versus output this January and overall balance, I'm grading to each one's ability:

Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers: A+
Alright, let's just get the easy stuff out of the way, though it certainly wasn't easy for these two teams to get here.  The 49ers had to face two of the best passing attacks in the NFL with Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan back to back after dealing with some serious questions about their defensive durability in December.  The San Francisco defense did what it had to and came alive in the second half of each game, but it was this offense under Colin Kaepernick (and OC Greg Roman) that has really shined lately by finding multiple ways to win.  Last week's pistol was... so last week now that Kaepernick has proven he can stand in the pocket and kill a good secondary with his vertical attack (hello again, Vernon Davis!).  As for the Ravens, I called it best last week when I said they were looking like this year's Giants.  Nobody, but nobody thought they would make it past the divisional round with Peyton Manning in Denver, much less past Tom Brady in Foxboro as well a week later.   Why would they?  The Ravens went 1 - 3 in their final four games.  Right now, Baltimore's defense is looking more and more like the dominant unit it has been for so long, but consider these playoffs Joe Flacco's coming out party.  He heads into the big dance with 8 TDs, 0 INTs and a 115 passer rating capped off by the most road wins (6) by any QB ever in the postseason.  Extra kudos to new OC Jim Caldwell who earned his controversial keep with this spectacular turnaround.

Atlanta Falcons: B+
Give the Falcons credit for finally getting over the hump by notching a playoff W under Mike Smith and showing some real power against very good teams.  It took everything Atlanta had to beat the surging Seahawks in the divisional round, but they did it with poise after coughing up a 20 point lead.  Matt Ryan's final 30-second drive there was nothing short of legendary, and the Falcons' defense almost got the job done against the hot hands of Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.  "Almost" is still the operative word here though.  The Falcons suffered from some of the highest expectations of any team entering the postseason in 2012 given their league-best record and history of playoff gaffes in similar circumstances.  They both counteracted and played right into that perception by starting out hot for two weeks and then collapsing in the final 30 minutes.  This week's loss to the 49ers stings more than most considering the Falcons blew multiple opportunities in the red zone in the fourth quarter down by just 4.  The Matty Ice Man giveth and taketh away.

Cincinnati Bengals: D-
Despite ending the regular season with a great string of games, the Bengals regressed back into their bad habits in their only outing in Houston.  Cincy's best strength, its pass rush, got very little muscle on Matt Schaub and let Arian Foster run wild, though at least the defense put up a touchdown.  Andy Dalton's offense, on the other hand, was stifled from start to finish with a particularly poor long passing game.  In fact, the Bengals were in negative passing yards until a good way through the second quarter and went 0 for 9 on third down.  The most infuriating part of all of this to me has to be Jay Gruden's play-calling though.  RB Benjarvis Green-Ellis was showing some serious early success against the Texans' front seven by averaging nearly 6 yards a pop, but his number was called only 11 times.  What a waste of a playoff spot from a team that should've been better.

Denver Broncos: C
To be honest, I'm still not really sure what to think of the Broncos' first playoff appearance with Peyton Manning at the helm.  On the one hand, Denver looked to be just one poor guy's defensive breakdown away from the win, Joe Flacco is better than we thought, and the Ravens have been playing their best football of this season all around at the right time.  On the other hand, the Broncos might not have been in the game at the end at all if Baltimore hadn't broken down twice against Trindon Holiday in the return game, and Manning turned the ball over three times in critical situations in a very characteristic playoff choke.  Plus, Denver was playing a cupcake schedule on that 11-game win streak, so we don't know how big the Baltimore mole hill really was to climb.  Being somewhat forgiving without awarding an "incomplete," I go "meh" here.

Green Bay Packers: B-
The Packers got bitten by the injury bug yet again this year, which had them playing less than consistent football going into January, but their veterans on either side of the ball really didn't help Aaron Rodgers out much when push came to shove anyhow.  Green Bay looked like its brilliantly efficient self against the very hobbled Vikings in the Wild Card round with Rodgers having another effortless day in the passing game.  But they reverted to their more troubling, very unbalanced habits against a 49ers squad that already bested them once this season.  Let's not discredit Colin Kaepernick for becoming the special player he's proven himself to be, but the Packers' defense was flat out embarrassed at Candlestick with no answer for the QB read.  Rodgers soon resigned himself to some lackluster checkdowns and looked defeated well before even the third quarter was over.  These guys need to rediscover that scrappy Super Bowl 6th-seed mentality fast if they want to stand up to the new bullies in the NFC next year.

Houston Texans: D+
It's probably not fair, but I've got to carry over some incomplete class assignments from the regular season for the Texans.  Less cryptically, Houston had not one but two chances to lock up a first round bye heading into the postseason against (in all fairness, also playoff-bound) Minnesota and Indianapolis, but they absolutely fizzled and it came back to haunt them quickly.  Despite the aforementioned Bengals' awful performance against the Texans in the wild card, Houston still barely eked out the win after Andy Dalton botched a late go-ahead TD pass.  To give the Texans a small nod, they held up better against the Patriots in January than they did in December with a strong effort from Arian Foster, but that was a pretty low bar to begin with and they still lost by 2 possessions.  Houston had most of the tools throughout its roster to succeed this season, save maybe Matt Schaub, so Texans fans have to be disappointed that they didn't even get a truly emphatic win in January.  Is it time for a T.J. Yates-fueled controversy?

Indianapolis Colts: C-
As inspiring as the Colts' season has been, they really didn't have much of a chance during Ray Lewis' final home game in Baltimore. Not to mention the fact that they were the only team in the playoffs this year with a negative point differential, which you knew had to catch up with them some time.  Catch up it did in a 9 - 24 first round loss, but I suspect this won't be the last time we see Andrew Luck's Colts in the playoffs by a long shot, and next time he'll have this experience under his belt with a more veteran supporting cast to boot.

Minnesota Vikings: C-
I'm grading this one on a curve too, given Christian Ponder's sudden injury-related benching just hours before kickoff in Green Bay.  At the very least, one can only assume Joe Webb won't even be riding the pine at the Metrodome while the Vikings pick up a more solid backup option for next year.  But I'm still weirdly pretty impressed that Adrian Peterson was able to put up over 90 yards anyway against the Pack even when that defense could have put its whole secondary on him.

New England Patriots: B
I was tempted to grade the Pats a little lower since they only showed up for 1.5 games this postseason, but they did suffer some big injuries in the secondary and running game in their second half against Baltimore.  Those had to hurt in more ways than one in tandem with Rob Gronkowski's absence.  New England had an expectedly dominant outing against the Texans by playing its quick and explosive offense to a tee and taking advantage of a worse-for-the-wear Matt Schaub on defense.  But the Pats hit the wall again against a physically dominant defense that refused to relinquish the game tempo the following week.  Tom Brady and Bill Belichick looked declawed after that whole half time clock mismanagement, and to the delight of meme-lovers everywhere, Brady was back to Bradying following some bad receiver drops and big pressure from the Ravens.  Much like Aaron Rodgers' Packers, I think the Pats gave up on this one a lot sooner than they should have in the third quarter, especially since they almost surmounted a similarly huge deficit against the 49ers just a few weeks ago and this was their Super Bowl ticket.  At least he practiced this one:

Seattle Seahawks: B+
Despite having to endure Pete Carroll, who didn't love cheering for the Seahawks this year?  They were the unlikely comeback kids in the playoffs, erasing 14 and 20 point deficits against the Redskins and Falcons, respectively.  Who's to say where they could have gone if Carroll hadn't "un-iced" Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant in the fourth quarter of the divisional round?  I loved watching Seattle's secondary come to life against RGIII and Matt Ryan, forcing uncharacteristic interceptions from both and just giving the 'Hawks a chance to win all season long.  I loved Seattle's decision to go with rookie third-rounder Russell Wilson as starting QB even more when it paid dividends with two weeks of solid postseason play.  Who could have guessed a guy not named Griffin or Luck would be the only rookie QB still standing in the second round of the playoffs?  Even though Seattle ultimately fell short of a defensive stop in the end, they put up a valiant fight with everything they had.

Washington Redskins: B-
This one's a struggle to grade.  I really should separate out the first quarter and the players' efforts in general (which is the grade you see here) from Mike Shanahan's awful decision-making (F!!!!!1111).  I have no interest in beating a dead horse since the whole "RGKnee" thing has been overblown and overplayed, but in terms of living up to one's playoff potential, it sunk the Redskins' ship this year and maybe next year too.  There are much worse scenarios than riding Alfred Morris and Kirk Cousins to whatever shot you've got in the second half while the Seahawks are without pass rusher supreme Chris Clemons.  But we'll never know now, will we?

Playoff Predictions: Championship Weekend 2013

And then there were four.  It all comes down to this weekend, eerily similar to this time last year with three teams returning to their respective conference championships and the Atlanta Falcons as the lone newcomers.  Will we be preparing for a Harbaugh Bowl in two weeks?  I hope so.

San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Atlanta Falcons

The Run-Down: The Falcons are the only new kids on the block in the NFL's final four this season after notching their incredible last-minute victory against the Seattle last week and their first playoff win in the Matty Ice era.  They face a 49ers squad that throttled the Packers' defense last weekend by putting up 580 yards and 45 points under the direction of never-better QB Colin Kaepernick.

How the 49ers Can Win on Offense: San Francisco held up very well next to an offense last weekend that is similarly explosive to the Falcons' offense.  While the game had the makings of a shootout going into the third quarter, the Niners would break away in a big way with their feet, amassing an astounding 320 rushing yards in the process.  Colin Kaepernick proved elusive on the ground and just as formidable as Frank Gore.  We quickly saw the combination of confusing looks (that sent usually-sharp Clay Matthews on wild good chases) and dominance in time of possession (the Niners' 38 minutes to the Packers' 22) tip the scales mightily.  A good coach like Jim Harbaugh will likely adjust the game plan this weekend a bit to limit the impact of the Falcons' preparation, given Kaepernick's tremendous versatility.  Even so, it's hard to imagine that the Niners couldn't find plenty of success doing exactly what they did last weekend against an Atlanta squad that struggled against mobile Cam Newton twice in the regular season and lost a 20-point lead last week once Seattle finally turned Russell Wilson loose in the second half.  The Niners' offensive line is among the very best and the Gold Rush (I assume I wasn't the first to come up with this...) could get a big advantage on a fast indoor field.  The big thing here is for the young Kaepernick to stay grounded and play smartly.  Just because the Packers' defense made things look easy doesn't mean Asante Samuel, Thomas DeCoud and a very opportunistic secondary will let the Niners off the hook in the passing game.

How the 49ers Can Win on Defense: Although the Niners' clocked just one sack against Aaron Rodgers last weekend, they pressured him enough to stay out of sync for most of the second half and forced two momentum-killing turnovers in the process.  San Francisco will definitely need to generate pressure much more consistently against Matt Ryan than the Seahawks did, keeping the battle at the line of scrimmage.  We'll never know how that last game might have turned out with Seattle's best pass rusher Chris Clemons suited up, but Ryan had plenty of time to wait for the open pass in the pocket including a number of seam routes from speedy WR tandem Roddy White and Julio Jones.  Ryan also got valuable relief with a solid Turner-Rodgers rushing effort.  Despite winning in the majority of these types of matchups in the regular season, the Falcons--and Matt Ryan in particular--have struggled against more physical defenses that were able to stop the run (Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers).  Conversely, the 49ers have played their best football this year on the road against the league's elite QBs (Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau, Drew Brees at the Superdome, Tom Brady in Foxboro).  San Francisco has the swagger and strategy to win in the trenches, but they will need an A+ effort in the secondary too to take some of the burden off of vulnerable DE Justin Smith and avoid costly mismatches with Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez.

How the Falcons Can Win on Offense: As a converse to the 49ers' defensive plan above, the Falcons need to get this game out of the trenches immediately and play some fast no-huddle ball.  I'd argue that a lot of Atlanta's success this year can be attributed to a change in offensive philosophy from a run-first team to a throw-to-run team, and that success is critical for the Falcons to create balance... eventually.  If the Niners are watching tape from last week, they may well sell out in their secondary so much to prevent the big play from White and Jones that they leave Tony Automatic Gonzalez in single slot coverage to pick up one too many first downs.  Atlanta stretched out the field expertly in the divisional round against one of the league's best secondaries, and they can expose the Niners here (like the Seahawks did in Week 16) with Matt Ryan's many receiving weapons and bend-don't-break pass protection.  Then and only then should the Falcons shift into a play-action and run phase, after Justin Smith's triceps are screaming in vain and Atlanta can play tug of war with time of possession.

How the Falcons Can Win on Defense: Containing Colin Kaepernick in the pocket is a lot harder than it might sound for Atlanta, especially with DE John Abraham's health and mobility in question.  The Falcons' front seven have played admirably for the most part this year, but they will ned to channel a season-best effort to contain the edges of the pocket against a very good Niners offensive line.  Like Russell Wilson last week, Colin Kaepernick can get a little too comfortable scrambling around in the backfield and hanging on to the ball too long.  Notching a sack or two in these circumstances will really limit San Francisco's run-heavy ways.  Moreover, I would not be surprised to see Falcons DC (and former 49ers HC) Mike Nolan create some bizarre and deceptive defensive looks here, like the Amoeba formation I recently referred to from the Falcons-Broncos Week 3 bout.  A great deal of the 49ers' success under Colin Kaepernick is due to his experience with the read option.  If Nolan can get some three card monty out of his linebackers and trick Kaepernick into the wrong read, this young player can get out of sync quickly and force his team into some bad mistakes.

Prediction: I hope I'm not getting too eagerly sucked into my own ill-intentioned desire to keep the Dirty Birds out of the Superdome, but the Falcons don't match up well against the 49ers in this one.  When you look back at all of the Falcons' losses and near-losses against lesser teams, they have some startling things in common: 1) a very weak running game from Atlanta (SF is 4th in run defense); 2) a big day for the opponent's running game with bonus points for option QBs (SF is 4th in the run there too.  Did I mention they put up over 320 yards in rushing on that Candlestick turf last week?); and 3) pressuring turnovers from Matt Ryan.  I won't rule Atlanta totally out because they tend to win the turnover battle more often than not and Matt Ryan is one of the best in the 2-minute (or 30-second) drill.  But this one is the 49ers' Championship to lose.  49ers 35, Falcons 27 (because Mike Smith never goes for 2).

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8)

The Run-Down: Call it a game of destiny or a boulevard of broken dreams.  The Pats are on a hot streak looking to get to their sixth Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era in hopes of winning their first Lombardi in over five years.  The Ravens have been to the AFC Championship twice in the Flacco-Harbaugh era and lost both times, but they are now hoping to give the retiring Ray Lewis one last shot at a Super Bowl appearance.

How the Ravens Can Win on Offense: Even when defenses know exactly what Joe Flacco is going to do, he knows he has the receiving corps to land just enough deep balls to get the job done.  He's got one of the very best cannon arms in the NFL, and while the Patriots defense is improved from this time last year, Flacco can trust that he will get some production out of Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones and Anquan Boldin.  Even so, John Harbaugh ought to get an early read on how "Ahab" Bill Belichick is feeling about all of this.  There are some interesting audibles from last year's Super Bowl in the moments Eli Manning was driving the Giants down the field for the final go-ahead score. Belichick asked for extra help from his secondary on Victor Cruz, leaving Mario Manningham open enough to make the game's most important catch.  If one of Flacco's big receivers sees early success, the Pats' defense may very well lighten up on some of his other weapons, so it's on this QB to find the quick one-on-one matchup that will keep the chains moving.  Even better, if the Pats totally sell out for the pass, Ray Rice should be able to get a lot of production with the help of the Ravens' newly reconfigured and much improved offensive line.  Even though the Texans still fell short last weekend, they had a much better day with Arian Foster than they did in December because the Houston line was able to push Vince Wilfork & co. into some big gaps that a little guy like Rice can also exploit.  Keeping the tempo in the Ravens' hands and out of Tom Brady's will be key in the second half.

How the Ravens Can Win on Defense: Say what you will about the Ravens' age versus Tom Brady's no-huddle speed, they still match up pretty well against New England, or at least they have in the past.  As I mentioned last week, the Pats struggled against physical defenses including this one earlier this year, and the amount of pressure Baltimore was able to put on Peyton Manning last week shows promise for this week.  The only way to stop the Pats' Oregon-style quick snaps is with big momentum killers: sacks and turnovers.  Baltimore will really need lightning to strike twice to have another weekend like the divisional round in this category, so let's hope Ed Reed's worst playoff game will be followed by his ball-hawking best, especially now that a little more caution will be granted to the rising stock of CB Corey Graham.  The matchup between Ray Lewis and Pats RB Steven Ridley should be a treat but the head of the Patriots' snake is Wes Welker, and DC Dan Pees is going to have to find some creative and legal ways to slow him down and keep him in front of defenders.  Good luck.

How the Patriots Can Win on Offense: If the Patriots can successfully execute their innovative and lightning-fast new offense with minimal disruption, it's hard to picture anyone, much less the aging Ravens defense, being able to stop them.  But OC Josh McDaniels might consider flipping the script by opening with some heavy runs from Steven Ridley and overnight sensation Shane Vereen to throw off a Baltimore defense that is much more likely to be concerned with that zip-and-go passing game.  This is the most underrated aspect of the 2012-13 Pats offense, and they can create a bloodbath scenario with that quick snap plan a whole lot quicker if they wear the Ravens down early, a team that is coming off a two-overtime traveling week.  Most importantly for Tom Brady, he cannot get frustrated if a breakdown or turnover occurs somewhere early.  We saw this type of attitude sink New England's ship in February last year; after a handful of bad receiver drops and an interception, Brady just wasn't the same and preferred to prove himself mightier than a Tebowing meme in the interwebs.  Good luck.

How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: I think the Pats' best defensive effort this year was against the Texans the first time around, and the Ravens could suffer a similar fate in those circumstances.  New England kept Arian Foster south of 50 yards on the ground, eliminating the play-action game and forcing Matt Schaub to throw a whole lot more than he was ever intended to.  Joe Flacco can certainly stretch the field with his arm strength more than Schaub, but he's been known to make some very bad decisions and force throws when Ray Rice is not firing on all cylinders and he feels the fate of the world (game) is on his shoulders.  Baltimore was never more than a possession away from tying or beating the Broncos last weekend, and that likely contributed heavily to Joe Flacco's success mentally and in the field of play.  So by stuffing the run and forcing the Ravens into third-and-long situations, the Pats will significantly up the chances of racking up unanswered points under Tom Brady and making Flacco throw the ever-predictable bomb.  And you better believe Belichick's secondary will be on the chopping block if they let anyone get behind them this time.

Prediction: I think this game will be dramatic, back and forth, and riding high on emotions for two teams that could not want a Super Bowl bid more.  And I think this one is going to be a lot closer than the spread would suggest on sheer will power alone.  The Pats have one of the best home records in the playoffs while the Ravens have one of the best road records, and these two teams are not intimidated by each other.  I'm all in in my heart for Ray Lewis' Ravens to get the swan song they deserve, so since I picked against them last weekend, I'll try to unjinx them again this weekend by picking Tom Brady's Pats in the clutch doing in their 2-minute drill what Joe Flacco did last weekend in Denver.  Patriots 30, Ravens 28


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 6 - 2
Against the Spread: 4 - 4

2013 Divisional Round: Why This Was the Best Playoff Weekend Ever

This was the kind of playoff weekend that not only blows your hair back, it could singe your eyebrows right off too if you don't watch yourself.  I'm not sure we could have asked for a better series of games, though thankfully that Texans-Pats affair at the end let us cool down to avoid total cardiac arrest.  Please join me in a moment of silence that there are approximately nine hours of pro football (only 30 - 35 minutes of live game action, mind you) remaining this season unless they all go to two overtimes.  So instead of doing the typical good stuff/bad stuff kind of recap, and even in spite of the fact that the Saints are nowhere to be found this postseason while the reviled Falcons are moving on to the NFC championship, here's why I unofficially officially dub this the best playoff weekend of all time: 

The Ravens Came To Play
I noted in my predictions for this week that everyone should put the Broncos/Ravens game on upset alert, even though I was too chicken to take a chance on them with my final pick.  No matter, Baltimore still showed up to play and how, making an improbable late fourth quarter comeback against the previously 11 - 0 Broncos and eventually taking home the W in a 2-OT affair. From start to finish, (and return game aside) the Ravens did their job this week - Joe Flacco had one of his best career games with clutch big plays, Ray Rice provided critical balance in the run game, and the Ray Lewis-led defense forced three turnovers including a Peyton Manning INT that set up the game-winning field goal at Mile High.  I'm out of breath just recalling all of this. For anyone who thought Ray Lewis' retirement party was a bygone Wild Card memory, this team has found Rasputin-like powers that the Patriots should be more than a little nervous about next week.  They're starting to look like those pesky '07 and '11 Giants, and I can only imagine they'll be thrilled to have one more shot in Foxboro to get to the Super Bowl. 

Manning Face Returns!
The flip side of Baltimore's incredible rise back into contention was getting our fair share of Manning face on Saturday, since all plays that go against Peyton Manning's team are patently unfair and against God/Tebow's will.  (P.S., That might not be true since Tim Tebow has somehow won more playoff games in Denver than Peyton Manning has.  Also, Joe Flacco has seven wins in five years to Peyton's nine in fourteen years.  Weird.)  Anyway, you can check out the whole schadenfreude-worthy montage on Deadspin here.  This is in no way intended to discredit his incredible comeback this season, but the stats on Peyton's postseason performance are right where he left 'em and even slightly worse now.  Despite racking up 4 MVPs over the years, Manning is now 9 - 11 in the playoffs including 8 one-and-done appearances.  He still gave the Ravens just about all they could handle this weekend, but I have no doubt that his ill-advised interception late in overtime, which in effect cost the Broncos the game, will keep him up for months to come.  Just like this one did in Miami three years ago, #whodatbaby #canthelpmyself

Supercalifragilistic Offense
Throw any complaints you had about Wild Card weekend's less-than-inspiring affairs (Bengals-Texans, Vikings-Packers) right out the door.  Defense still mattered a lot this weekend, but only on the margins.  Incredibly, no team scored fewer than 28 points during the highest scoring playoff weekend of all time, and there were so many statistical records broken, they'd be meaningless to list in full here (and a headache from a pro bono blogging research standpoint).  But in broader strokes, both Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson put up close to 450 yards individually in passing and rushing, and the Baltimore/Denver game yielded over 800 yards and 73 points while the Green Bay/San Francisco game yielded over 900 yards and 76 points.  Heck, even the Texans weren't quite as embarrassing on offense this time around with Arian Foster earning 2 TDs in his fourth consecutive playoff game with a score.  These, my friends, are what pundits used to call Tecmo numbers before the myth became reality.

SEA/ATL Somehow Matches BAL/DEN
Confession: I nearly decided to do a feature prior this past weekend of the Top 10 games of the season after Wild Card weekend was a little less than stellar.  Thankfully the lazy bug caught up to me because I'd be missing 20% of that list right now.  Saturday's Broncos-Ravens rumble had everything a football fan could ever want: two of the greatest players of all time facing off in the winter of their careers, a ridiculous number of explosive plays, dramatic turnovers, and the first two-overtime game in nearly a decade that eventually clocked in at over four hours.  Things were looking grim for the rest of the weekend after Colin Kaepernick dismantled the Packers with surgical precision and the Falcons maintained a 20 point lead against the Seahawks well into the third quarter.  But then, however improbably, we had ourselves a game.  Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch combined for three TDs in the fourth quarter including a Lynch punch-in at the goal line with only 30 seconds left on the clock.  It would have been one of the quickest and largest comebacks in NFL history with Seattle looking at a 28 - 27 lead.  But with the Seahawks playing bend-don't-break defense against Falcons QB Matt Ryan, he completed three deep laser passes and moved his team over 50 yards in less than 20 seconds.  Whoa.  Kicker Matt Bryant sent the winning field goal straight through the uprights, and the rest is history as they say.  On a side note, here's an interesting conundrum: suppose Denver defensive back Rahim Moore deflects that last bomb from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones and Pete Carroll doesn't ice Matt Bryant's first kick that sailed wide right.  We'd be hailing Peyton Manning's return and begrudging Matt Ryan's playoff haplessness now for things they didn't do.

Tony Gonzalez Finally Got the Win He Deserved
As spectacularly down to the wire as Sunday's win in Atlanta was, it was still by and large difficult for me to stomach the Falcons finally winning a playoff game under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan.  So I looked back through my annals of irrational sports-related coping techniques and thought of the small comfort I found knowing that at least Shane Battier finally got a ring when the Miami Heat won the NBA Finals last year.  Similarly, as much as this gal dry heaves at the thought of the Falcons doing the same (which they won't because Colin Kaepernick is a robot from the future, right?), I am genuinely happy that Tony Gonzalez finally got his very first playoff win in his incredible 16 year Hall of Fame career as a tight end.  If I had my druthers, that'd be it, T-Gon would have enough closure to retire with this one win and leave the rest of the NFC South alone, and we'd all ride off into the Falcons' Super Bowl-less 2013 sunset.  But the man exudes classiness, grace and greatness-- it is literally impossible not to root for him and him alone as long as Atlanta's still in the hunt.

Tom Brady Anoints Another King
Make that two kings - with the Patriots' easy win over the Texans on Sunday night, Tom Brady now stands alone with the most playoff wins of all time, passing Joe Montana's 16.  Brady was a virtuoso on Sunday, and if there's anyone who's feeling worried about how the loss of Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead might impact him in the championship, look no further than Shane "Who?" Vereen's performance that day.  The third string running back scored three TDs on Sunday including two incredible receptions from Brady.  He also put up over 120 all-purpose yards in the process as a total unknown who might now be looking for Matt Flynn-style compensation.  As automatic as the Patriots have been in the Belichick-Brady era, don't say there aren't still surprises like these sometimes.  The way Vereen connected with Brady this weekend, you know this has been an ace up Belichick's sleeve for some time.  Even so, as the Texans found out the hard way on Sunday, it's nearly impossible to beat these Pats even with 28 points on the board.  Definitely looking forward to that rematch with Baltimore this weekend.

Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round 2013

If I could sum up this weekend's matchups in a well-known axiom--other than that the NFC is insanely more competitive these days than the AFC--it would be a test of whether or not defense wins championships.  In every case save the Denver/Baltimore matchup, one team seems to have a lot more defensive beef than the other and varying degrees of offense to match.  Without further adieu, I'll let you imply my mixed feelings on the matter:

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

The Run-Down: In the first of three (!) 2012 regular season rematches this weekend, the Ravens will try to carry forward the momentum of their last home victory under Ray Lewis' squirrel dance against a much scarier road opponent.  The Broncos outscored the Ravens by 17 points just three weeks ago, but both Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning have looming questions about their durability down the playoffs stretch.

How the Ravens Can Win: The most important thing the Ravens need to do this week is forget that Week 15 in Baltimore ever happened.  Fortunately, they have one of the NFL's greatest emotional leaders of all time back on the field to help out there.  Kumbayas aside, the Ravens have a lot of potential to stay competitive on offense with the right one-two punch of Joe Flacco's deep ball and Ray Rice's screens and draws.  They will need to mix up play-calling in these areas well to get the Broncos' defense spread out and worn down.  You already know the implausible spiel about Peyton Manning on defense, but I think the Ravens should look back to the Broncos' Week 3 in Atlanta for inspiration.  The Falcons threw a lot of confounding looks into the mix with their "Amoeba" style of defense and it paid dividends with three early Peyton Manning INTs.

How the Broncos Can Win: Interestingly enough, I think this game will rely more heavily on Denver's defense than people might expect.  As mentioned above, Peyton Manning doesn't always reach his peak performance in the playoffs--especially in cold weather--and he's got more of a challenge with a healthier, more determined Ravens defense this time around.  So the Broncos will need to stuff Ray Rice enough to pressure Joe Flacco into Bad Joe Flacco, keeping the aging Baltimore defense on the field as often as possible.  Rice's playoff fumble woes could also be candy for the Vons and Elvises of the world.  Throw in a couple Peyton Manning no-huddle attacks with Ray Lewis gasping for breath and the results could be deadly.

Prediction:  I'm keeping this one on upset alert for two reasons: 1) we still don't know the Broncos' ceiling since they've played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year; and 2) Ray Lewis is not going to let Baltimore give up on this game before it's begun.  Even so, I'll take Peyton Manning on an average day over Joe Flacco on an exceptional one, and I see the Broncos breaking away in the fourth quarter in a big way.  Broncos 31, Ravens 17

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The Run-Down: Saturday spells Packers-49ers bookends for one of these teams that last met in Week 1.  Both teams have remained on the shortlist of Super Bowl contenders since then, but they look a lot different.  Aaron Rodgers and Packers' running game have stepped it up in the second half of the season while Colin Kaepernick has replaced Alex Smith with generally decent results.  Nevertheless, both teams have had enough ups and downs this season to suggest this one's still very much anyone's game.

How the Packers Can Win: As an abundance of analysts have made clear in recent weeks, the Packers first need to pray that All Pro Niners DE Justin Smith is benched or playing at significantly less than 100%.  That alone will free up more room to run the ball and score at will.  If God/Tebow have other things to do that day, Aaron Rodgers needs to put on the passing fireworks that only Aaron Rodgers can because I'm doubtful the Packers' running game will survive a healthy San Francisco box.  When Rodgers is on and his receiving corps has sticky fingers, he can stretch the field like no other, a skill that even the best defense has no cure for.  On the other side of the ball, Green Bay needs to contain and pressure Kaepernick inside the pocket.  This guy is as dangerous as any scrambling QB otherwise, but he's still new on the job and susceptible to mistakes when he feels caged.  As with Minnesota last week, if Green Bay can hold San Francisco to field goals in the red zone (with a much shakier kicker, mind you), Rodgers can make up the difference in TDs.

How the 49ers Can Win: If the Niners' statement win in Foxboro showed us anything recently, it's that this team now has the offensive chops to sprint alongside the league's best when it comes out of the tunnel swinging.  The Packers have looked vulnerable this season against many teams including this one that can ground and pound when needed (Seahawks, Vikings, Giants), and in many of the same instances, when the Packers have gotten off to a slow start.  The Niners offense should put this theory to the test with an aggressive early game plan on offense and maybe one timely trick play to keep the crowd going and Green Bay second-guessing itself.  LaMichael James has emerged recently as in a decent rushing tandem with Frank Gore to stoke the embers and manage the clock after that.  On defense, the 49ers should practically sell out for the passing game, focusing almost entirely on getting Aaron Rodgers as frustrated as possible early with its dominant pass rush and stingy secondary.  That would produce quite the head game for a QB who's a little too used to getting his way.

Prediction: This is probably my single toughest pick of the weekend since we're probably looking at the two best teams in the NFC whose styles don't play well together.  Especially with home field advantage and extra rest, well-balanced San Francisco just seems to have more paths to victory on Saturday than the Packers do.  49ers 38, Packers 31.

  Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Run-Down: The Atlanta Falcons are more desperate than ever for their first playoff win in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, but for the fourth time in five years, they may be facing the hottest underdog in the NFC with all the confidence in the world.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The Seahawks first and foremost need to punch the Falcons in the mouth on defense by taking away deep threats Julio Jones and Roddy White with its elite secondary.  Despite the NFC-best record, Atlanta hasn't yet proven outright it can keep pace with more competitive teams when the chips are down and the Falcons' most explosive players are taken out of the equation.  Forcing turnovers would be psychologically costly to this team that much prefers to win by playing it safe.  Speaking of which, Russell Wilson will need to do what he does best by protecting the ball and making smart plays even if Atlanta comes out swinging just like he did in Washington last weekend.  Marshawn Lynch is primed to wear down a subpar rushing defense and let the passing game open up, but patience may be required with a postseason-hungry Atlanta squad.

How the Falcons Can Win: The most important intangible for the Falcons on Sunday will be mental toughness.  The Seahawks may be the scariest team in the NFC right now, and the Falcons have plenty of postseason hangups waiting to bubble up, so Atlanta needs to prepare to bounce back and stick to the game plan with long, sustained drives even if the first few series don't look so good.  The Falcons will also want to take advantage of the Seahawks' biggest hole on defense, as pass rushing monster Chris Clemons will be out for the remaining season with an ACL tear.  With Clemons out of the picture, Matt Ryan will have more breathing room to wait for the open throws and lean on the play action game, which will make his offense all the more dangerous when it's in its element.  On defense, the Falcons need to contain Russell Wilson and take advantage of his tendency to hang on to the ball too long.  Atlanta doesn't blitz much, but this is an occasion where it could pay off hugely in front of a home crowd that wants to believe this year will be different.

Prediction: This is a tougher pick than this Falcons hater would like it to be.  No one knows when the Seahawks will have gone past their peak until they have, and the Falcons have been equal parts brilliant, mediocre, and lucky this season with a solid home field advantage to boot.  I actually changed this one at the last minute so I may be kicking myself in a couple of days, but I think it was absolutely bone-headed of the Seahawks to travel DC-SEA-ATL over a seven-day period instead of staking it out on the East Coast and figuring out how to fill Chris Clemons' void.  Plus, I think Atlanta will finally do everything in its power with better coordinators on both sides of the ball to eke out a playoff win.  Falcons 20, Seahawks 17.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5)

The Run-Down: Early signs point to snooze patrol, as the Texans stumble their way into the second round of the playoffs only to meet the team that handed Houston a 42 - 14 beat down in Foxboro a month ago.

How the Texans Can Win: Per last Saturday against the Bengals, Houston is a team that succeeds most often when it has ample opportunities and time to score with the slow grind and play action.  Translation?  The Texans defense is going to have to stop Tom Brady much more effectively than it did last time, especially in the first quarter when New England likes to wreak its explosive havoc.  J.J. Watt was utterly neutralized in the double-team here before, so Houston needs to get more creative with disguising its blitz packages and defensive reads to free up Watt and confuse Tom Brady, who would love nothing more than another cake walk with this secondary.  Remember, the Pats struggled mightily against their more physical opponents earlier this year (the Ravens and 3/4 of the NFC West: Niners, Seahawks, Cardinals).  If Matt Schaub can get the ball to TE Owen Daniels as effectively as he did last week with quick slants, Houston can also diversify its offensive attack in order to get back to its favorite weapons.

How the Patriots Can Win: Tom Brady's style of offense is built to prey on what the Texans have struggled with all season: teams that throw quickly and spread out across the field. Don't be surprised to see the Patriots go no-huddle from the start to keep Houston's front seven reeling and panicky with a few big Steven Ridley runs up the middle to really twist the knife.  On defense, New England also exposed the Texans in a big way last time around by holding Arian Foster to under 50 yards, which is turn forced Matt Schaub to throw the ball a whole lot more often than he feels comfortable with in play action.  Stopping Houston on third down will be particularly valuable for the Patriots so that the Texans cannot settle into the game plan they've clung to all season.  Unlike the Pats, they cannot afford to play from behind.

Prediction: Fun fact: the Patriots/Texans score last time around was the same as the Alabama/Notre Dame BCS Championship turned out to be earlier this week.  The underlying commonality?  The winners overpowered and outsmarted their lesser opponents in all phases of the game from the first snap.  As much as we've wanted to cheer for the underdogs in these situations, this is a power differential that the Texans cannot surmount this year.  Patriots 35, Texans 20.



So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 3 - 1
Against the Spread: 2 - 2

The Best and Worst of Wild Card Weekend and Why RGIII's Knee Injury Is the Perfect Storm

We've got our 2013 Wild Card round in the books and I'm short on time but not thoughts.  Here's the best and worst of Wild Card weekend and Why RGIII's Knee Injury Is the Perfect Storm:

The Best of Wild Card 2013

•  Ray Lewis' Grand Farewell - Nobody really knew what to expect when Ray Lewis took the field for one last home game in Baltimore on Sunday, but it couldn't have been a more fitting farewell for the heart and soul of the Ravens.  Despite rumors that he'd be limited in play, Lewis played nearly every defensive snap and ended the day with 13 tackles and a deflected pass looking just as ageless as ever.  Roll credits.

• Aaron Rodgers' Peak - While the Vikings under backup QB Joe Webb weren't formidable competition by any means, Aaron Rodgers had a very efficient evening in Lambeau with over 65% completion, 270 yards and a TD.  Ever the smirking cad, Rodgers should be feeling good about himself getting hot at the right time.  Next week in Candlestick will be a big step up.
• Seattle's Grit - I was a little nervous after the first quarter in Washington on Sunday.  The Redskins looked to be running circles around the Seahawks' scary defense by jumping out to a 14 point lead, but that would ultimately be as far as Washington got.  Even putting the game in the context of RGIII's knee injury, Seattle adjusted in a big way taking away rookie RB Alfred Morris' power and forcing the hobbling QB to try to make plays including forcing a rare Griffin INT.  In that effort, they came back from their biggest deficit of the season on the road, and all signs point to this being a different kind of team than we might have thought even half a season ago.

The Worst of Wild Card 2013

• The Bengals-Texans Futility Bowl - We knew this one would be quite the Futility Bowl at the end of the day, since neither of these teams look even close to competitive next to the Patriots and Broncos, but that doesn't mean they had to play each other like that.  Andy Dalton threw for -17 yards until well into the second quarter and the Bengals went 0 for 9 on third downs on the day.  Matt Schaub threw an ugly pick six to put Cincy temporarily ahead anyway.  Kudos to Arian Foster and Jonathan Joseph for making enough plays to get Houston the win, but they don't look any better suited to face the Pats in Foxboro than they did a few weeks ago.
• Poor Joe Webb, and Poor, Poor Adrian Peterson - In a way, maybe this was an easier let down weekend for Vikings fans than if they'd been able to play at full strength with Christian Ponder under center.  It still would have been an uphill battle regardless, but Ponder was sidelined just before the game in Green Bay on Saturday, leaving backup QB Joe Webb to seal the Vikings' fate with less than barn-side accuracy in the pass game.  After some big misses to wide open receivers, Webb made it easy for the Packers to focus all of their attention on Adrian Peterson who, while having an MVP year, never had a chance against 11 defenders on every snap.  It was almost as ugly to watch as...
• BCS Snoozefest - I will digress for a minute in the Pros to reinforce how very pathetic the BCS Championship was on Monday night.  You know it's rough when the highlights pretty much consist of 1) an old man gawking too publicly over a pretty girl; 2) Memphis native (!) and Alabama center Barrett Jones tussling with his own QB after the team was up by a 30-point margin; and 3) Coach Nick Saban looking about miserably uncomfortable as a four-time national champion as is humanly (or androidly?) possible.  I look forward to seeing what two SEC teams will make it through the final four in the new playoff system next year but yeesh, pray some thanks to Tebow that the NFL has done parity right in the modern era.  Now back to the program.

 Why RGIII's Knee Injury Is the Perfect Storm
As I watched RGIII's knee buckle late in the 'Skins-Seahawks game on Sunday night, I had a Usual Suspects-style epiphany of all of the pieces stacking up against this poor guy.  Yes, you have to look first and foremost at the questionable decisions Coach Mike Shanahan made, and "questionable" is putting it way too nicely, but here are all of the factors that culminated in a knee that just shouldn't have bent that way.  To those who deign that the Redskins coaching staff couldn't have known what would happen to their star and/or that he gave them the best chance to win, find a highlight reel that goes from the second quarter on and ask yourself what you'd do with your non-medically trained eyes.

• The Show on Turf - The grounds crew (under Redskins management) decided not to resod a cold and bare FedEx Field before Sunday's game, making the conditions brutal (essentially like playing on pavement) for both teams.  You may even recall that it was on this field that Adrian Peterson tore his ACL just over a year ago and that RGIII injured his knee the first time around this season.  Seattle also had some turf monster casualties, as kicker Steven Hauschka strained his calf and elite pass rusher Chris Clemons ended his season with a torn ACL.  All because Dan Snyder is the very worst kind of cheap skate.
• The Strasburg Effect - It's more than a little likely the Redskins were recalling the recent misfortunes of their neighboring pros, the Washington Nationals, who made the controversial decision to bench the healthy and critically important Stephen Strasburg earlier this season before the Nats made ever made their first playoff appearance.  We'll never know the true impact of that decision, but at the very least benching Strasburg did not yield a World Series appearance or win, so this was a town that was already hyper-sensitive to when and why its star athletes were subject to being benched.  Throw in your standard media questions about players' toughness in the NFL (Jay Cutler, anyone?) and it's clear that fear of backlash may have factored in more greatly here than in many other circumstances.
• Dr. Anderson's Loose Lips - Further complicating matters, the Redskins' team doctor, James Anderson, surprised the media just a day before the Seahawks game by admitting that he never cleared RGIII to return for play the first time he injured his knee this year.  Anderson essentially implied that he was overridden by a Washington coaching staff that was not prioritizing its star player's health.  Coach Shanahan tried to backpedal on these claims immediately by flatly denying them, but Sunday's game made it obvious that the medical staff was either ignored or just paying lip service to Manson-Eyes Mikey after he sent Griffin back in series after series even when he was barely able to walk straight.  In Shanahan's haste to "prove" he was honoring the doctor's advice, that advice was either severely inaccurate or, let's be real, never more than a PR factor. 
• Short-Sighted Play-Calling - Even if one grants the Shanahans the benefit of the doubt that they felt Griffin was their best option and that they believed he was healthy enough to play, Kyle Shanahan was merciless in his play-calling, making few adjustments even when it was clear his QB had no mobility.  For example, I recall a read option in the third quarter after it was obvious RGIII was down to 1.2 knees when he literally hop-scotched his way to the sideline for a few yards.  Shanahan was calling a game that reflected the fact that Griffin could hardly throw the ball anymore, but he more or less doubled down on plays that would make the offense most immediately successful--other than calling on backup Kirk Cousins--without thinking for a second about the risks involved then and now.  It serves no good to suggest Shanahan was doing this with any malicious intent whatsoever, but Washington fans have to be asking where the cooler heads were in these moments to stop a really bad plan from being realized in the worst way. 
• "Playing Hurt" Culture - Perhaps the biggest overarching issue in all of this, and what has made it the media story it has been for the past two days, is that Griffin's cringe-inducing injury was more salt in the NFL's player safety wounds.  With mounting litigation from former players regarding brain trauma and clear evidence that football has compromised many players' long term quality of life, every team and player is under the microscope for how they respond to potential and real player injuries.  In Griffin's and Shanahan's comments following the game on Sunday, they made a specious distinction between "playing hurt" and "playing injured."  I get that it's part of this game to play through injuries when possible since no one survives a season without getting "banged up" one way or the other, but these are all still injuries with a matter of degrees.  To pretend that those that qualify as "playing hurt" aren't vulnerable to getting worse or putting someone at risk for long-term health problems is no more than a myth.  Here's your Exhibit A.

Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Round 2013

It's do or die in a great Wild Card round this weekend.  There are some familiar faces and a whole lot of new ones, literally, with our first ever three-rookie-QB playoff class.  Don't write this weekend off as small stuff either -- four out of the last five Super Bowls have involved at least one wild card team, three of which have hoisted the Lombardi.  Without further adieu, here are your detailed Lady Blitz predictions and armchair coaching tips for this first week of play in the year of Kanye 2013:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5)

The Run-Down: Haven't we seen this one before?  Yes, just last year the Texans took out the Bengals in Houston in the Wild Card round in a 31 - 10 despite starting then-third-string QB T. J. Yates.

How the Bengals Can Win: The key for Cincinnati will be taking advantage of the Texans' increasingly shaky offense with its very formidable pass rush.  Keeping Matt Schaub off his game early will allow the Bengals to focus more on stopping Arian Foster to disrupt Houston's offensive game plan.  When Cincy has the ball, Andy Dalton and A. J. Green need to establish the deep threat early to keep a suspect Texans secondary on its heels and limit the impact of Houston's front seven.

How the Texans Can Win: Houston needs to play with confidence, especially on offense, by setting up high-percentage quick slants and screens to spread the Bengals' defense out and diffuse their pass rush.  If the Texans defense can get to Andy Dalton by forcing quick three-and-outs and turnovers, the psychology of this home game is in Houston's favor.

Prediction: The momentum over the past month has definitely gone in Cincinnati's favor, and this game won't be nearly the lopsided affair it was a year ago.  I like Marvin Lewis' team that now has the experience and confidence it needs to pull off an upset.  Bengals 20, Texans 17

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

The Run-Down: Haven't we seen this before?  Yes, just a few days ago in fact when the Vikings took down the bye-hungry Packers at the Metrodome to claim the last NFC wild card spot in dramatic fashion.  This is a divisional rivalry with heat no one expected this year.

How the Vikings Can Win: By doing what they've done all season long: running Adrian Peterson effectively and running him some more until the Packers give up on defending in the secondary.  The Minnesota defense also needs to keep getting great stops on third down to force the explosive Packers offense into punts and [missed Mason Crosby] field goals to take the Lambeau crowd out of it.

How the Packers Can Win: When Aaron Rodgers is on fire, there are no answers and this would by far be the easiest path to victory for the Packers this weekend.  However, Green Bay still needs to honor its improved run game to keep the Minnesota defense honest, and it needs to prevent its own defense from obsessing too much on stopping AP outside of the red zone where the Packers can overcome Vikings field goals with Rodgers TDs.

Prediction: From the heart, I'm all in with All Day and the Vikings, but playing the Packers two weeks in a row is a recipe for let down, especially when you have to go to Lambeau Field in January.  Packers 24, Vikings 20

 Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

The Run-Down: Those who thought the rivalry between these two would have died down for a while after Peyton Manning left for Denver are mistaken.  This match is notable for both, the youth-vs.-experience dynamic of the Colts and Ravens, respectively, and for Colts Coach Chuck Pagano's first return to Baltimore since he left as the Ravens' DC just a year ago.

How the Colts Can Win: More than anything, the Colts need to leverage Pagano's knowledge of the ins and outs of the Ravens' defensive personnel to maximize Andrew Luck's chances of success in a hostile environment.  Luck will have to play things a little safer than usual, avoiding turnovers at all costs.

How the Ravens Can Win: I see two paths to a Ravens victory that would work best in tandem: 1) jump out to an early lead with big plays on offense that correspondingly 2) force Andrew Luck into tough throws and momentum-killing turnovers.  Outside of this, Baltimore has proven for the last three years that it's only as successful as Ray Rice is on nearly all occasions.  He needs to be a big factor on Sunday against a questionable Indy run defense.

Prediction: The Colts will get there in due time, but I refuse to believe that recently-activated and nearly-retired LB Ray Lewis will let Baltimore lose in what is likely to be his last home game ever.  Ravens 24, Colts 14

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Washington Redskins

The Run-Down: It pains me that one of these two young teams that have been well worth rooting for all season will have to go home after Sunday, but that's the way of the world.  In the most doppelganger of Wild Card bouts, only one star rookie QB back by a powerful running game and opportunistic defense will make it to San Francisco or Atlanta next week.

How the Seahawks Can Win: Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch ought to be able to keep track with that high-powered Redskins offense, but the key for Seattle will be its defense's ability to outsmart RGIII and Alfred Morris in their dangerous play action game.  For this reason, it won't be enough to win at the line of scrimmage alone.  Seattle needs to prey on one of the 'Skins few offensive weaknesses by forcing fumbles and perhaps even a rare Griffin interception.

How the Redskins Can Win: As mentioned above, Washington needs to protect the football from the stingy, merciless Seahawks defense first and foremost and get the crowd into the game with well-timed big plays since Seattle won't have the 12th man on its side.  Given Robert Griffin's decreased mobility from a recent knee injury, executing the ground game early and often can wear out even the best defense and open up more field in the pass.

Prediction: For a moment, we must first acknowledge that neither of these teams are used to losing these days.  Seattle has gone 5 - 1 since its bye week and Washington has gone a stunning 7 - 0.  But when push comes to shove, the Redskins just haven't faced an offense or defense like this in recent weeks and the Seahawks have been killing it in point differential.  Seahawks 30, Redskins 17