- Reasons to Love and Hate the Broncos and Panthers
- Friends Don't Let Friends Listen to Coldplay
- That Thing That Never Gets Old
Q1: Can Cam Newton Be Stopped?
Without a doubt, the marquee matchup of this game is Cam Newton's magical offense vs. Denver's shut-down defense. We'll get to the other side of the ball in a minute, but the Broncos' chances are riding about 90% on stifling this MVP and winning those turnover and field position battles. The problem is, there really isn't a blueprint for how you do that to 2015 Cam Newton. He can run amok, he can shoot lasers from the pocket, and he's not afraid of the blitz - he won't just dump the ball off these days, he'll throw a bomb if it's there. As best I can tell, the Broncos should try more of the same from the AFC Championship - rushing four to five linemen at most and making the pocket as claustrophobic as possible. The more often they can contain Newton and force him to throw, the less they have to focus on where their linebackers have to cover on a given play. And while Cam is peaking in efficiency these days, he's still prone to the occasional bad pick and loses accuracy the more often he has to throw. Throughout the playoffs, Denver has demonstrated they can play one-on-one in the secondary when they get pressure up front, but the one place they might consider extra help is against tight end Greg Olsen. He's Newton's security blanket in picking up mid-range yardage and converting third downs, and if the Broncos defense wants to get off the field and give their offense a shot, Olsen is a top priority in passing situations. If there's any pass rush in the league that can stop the Panthers offense, it's this one, but they'll need to dictate where Newton throws the ball when he does to give Old Man Peyton a chance.
Q2: Does the Broncos Offense Have Any Advantages?
In a word, no. If Carolina had an Achilles Heel in the run game or if 2013 Peyton Manning had a wormhole in the space-time continuum that led to Santa Clara in 2016, this might be a different story, but it'll be an uphill battle for Denver's offense to stay on the field and put up points. For my money, I would love to see Manning give it his all in that vintage no-huddle offense to try to get the Panthers on their heels. Carolina will want to blitz often and load the box to thwart the Broncos' ground game, but if Denver can limit substitutions and wear that defense down with a series of short darts, they can open things up a little bit at the line of scrimmage. Thinking back to how Julio Jones trounced Josh Norman in the Panthers' one loss this season, the Broncos offense needs legendary games from the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanual Sanders. Manning just doesn't have the arm strength anymore to throw his receivers open, so it's on those guys to use their size and speed to break aggressively towards the ball and force themselves open. It's certainly risky to loft the ball on a 39-year-old arm with Luke Kuechly prowling in midfield, but the Broncos just can't expect to get 4 - 5 yards on every rushing attempt without some balance in this one. And #yolo so let Manning roll the dice a few times when the throw is there.Q3: Who Will Be the Deserving But Overlooked Defensive MVP?
Although these two teams are the cream of the crop when it comes to punishing defense, you gotta expect that the regular-season MVP or the retiring Hall of Famer will probably get the Super Bowl MVP when the dust settles here. I might be too cynical about this, but did you ever look at Manning's stat line the last time he won a Super Bowl MVP? No lie, his QB rating in that game was equivalent to Blaine Gabbert's QBR this season, but he still managed to eclipse the Colts' defensive efforts in that one. But in a just world where the other 20 positions matter, here's my short list of defensive studs that could be da real MVP. For Carolina, let's start with Luke Kuechly, the guy who's had two pick sixes in two games despite starting at middle linebacker. He'll have plenty of chances to blow things up on Sunday given Denver's penchant to run up the gut and throw the ball between the hash marks. Then there's the Josh Norman conundrum - he's a shut down corner, so there's zero chance Manning will be throwing in his direction on Sunday. Norman will probably just as unnoticed as he is effective. If there's another guy to keep an eye on for Carolina in this space, I think it's Star Lotulelei. He's the Panthers' premier run stuffer, and keeping Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson behind the line of scrimmage will suck the lifeblood out of Denver's offense. For the Broncos, Von Miller's got my #1 vote. He'll be going up against the redeemed but still average Michael Oher at left tackle. And well, if you want to see what kind of pink mist he can turn tackles into, see Exhibit A with Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon two weeks ago.
Q4: What About the Intangibles?
Indeed, what’s in that grab bag of hot streaks, quality wins vs. ugly losses and any kind of human interest stories that I can use to be an armchair psychologist here? If there's one thing that could really go the Broncos' way other than some well-timed turnovers, it's their emotional motivation. This whole team will be rallying around Peyton Manning in hopes of helping him hang up his cleats on a high note. And as six-point underdogs, Denver will be channeling a whole lot of "no one believes in us" so they can remind us again of what this defense has already done to the Packers, Patriots and Steelers this year. Because they have fewer ways to win than the Panthers, they'll be playing this one with the full weight of the high-stakes game it is. On Carolina's end, they've got max levels of momentum going into Sunday. Having beaten the alleged two best teams in the NFC by a combined 41 points after a blistering 15 - 1 season, they've got all kinds of confidence and mojo working in their favor. And having won a Heisman, BCS Championship, [presumptive] NFL MVP award and making his first Super Bowl appearance at the ripe old age of 26, Cam Newton is a bad, bad man. There's a chance the Panthers' youth and relative inexperience in big games could lead to a slow start or some bone-headed mistakes, but like the Broncos, they'll be rallying around their trusty veteran Thomas Davis for inspiration. On a totally different note, I wonder what John Fox will be feeling when he watches his two former teams go head-to-head this weekend without him. The Bears might just fire him immediately if they catch wind of this post-Fox Super Bowl bump. Anyway, this was a fun stream of consciousness for me.Q5: What’s Your Dumb Prediction Already?
I'm hoping for an entertaining, smashmouth kind of game between the tortoise and the hare. But while the lore would say that slow and steady can get it done, Carolina has so much balance and punch on both sides of the ball, it may not be much of a contest. Panthers 24, Broncos 16 MVP: Cam NewtonSo How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 7 - 3
Against the Spread: 5 - 5
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