Q1: Are these quarterbacks really "battle-tested" at this point?
Hard to say, hard to say. Both teams have gone up against pretty mellow defenses for the most part this postseason. Arguably the biggest went to the Ravens when they faced a robust Broncos defense that helped Tim Tebow win a playoff game last year, mind you. But the Ravens stayed in that one for all 75+ minutes by exploiting either an overestimated or overconfident Denver secondary that did not show up in the clutch. Otherwise, these two teams have shown themselves to be quite offensively able in the playoffs against decent but middling defenses, and that means we are headed into unknown territory on Sunday. This will be the most physical game of the playoffs and both QBs' finesse games will be tested heavily. I give Flacco a slight edge for his growing successful playoffs resume, while Kaepnernick has looked a little more vulnerable against physical teams like the Seahawks and Rams in the past.
In a year when three rookie QBs went to the playoffs for the first time and the two starters in the Super Bowl have less than seven years of pro experienced combined, this platitude will surely be questioned. But while both teams have some big-time vets between them, Baltimore has a bit more experience at key positions than the 49ers do at this point, for whatever that's worth. From QB to LB to Safety to Coach, the Ravens have seen a little bit of everything, but don't expect this to merit a golden ticket to the Lombardi, necessarily. Part of the 49ers' charm is their use of surprise tactics that most pro players aren't used to seeing. A key on Sunday will be whether or not San Fran can put that creative adaptability to good use against a Ravens team that has had more time to do film study on the bells and whistles than any other opponent thus far. On the converse, is Baltimore physically equipped to keep up with a younger and faster 49ers offense? San Francisco definitely looks the part of a confident, veteran team will all the right moves, speed and strength. And they've got a seasoned defensive core that won't let Flacco stand in the pocket for innumerable shots down the field.
Q3: What about the intangibles?
There are a lot of interesting but mostly meaningless stats at play in this one. For example, the 49ers are one of the few undefeated Super Bowl teams still in play with a league-best 5 - 0 record. They haven't lost a game this year when they've scored 17 or more points. But the Ravens are 3 - 1 against the Niners all time and won against Alex Smith last year in the first and only Harbaugh v. Harbaugh game to date. They'e also at 100% in the Super Bowl with a 1 - 0 record and seem to have had no limit in January against their toughest opponents. With so few previous Super Bowl contenders on each roster and coaches who couldn't possibly know each other's tendencies any better, both will have every reason to fight this one to the death. "Who wants it more?" is a moot point. Much in the way the Colts were able to get to 11 - 5 against all odds (and negative point differential this season) with an inspiring figure to rally around, the Ravens will rally around Ray Lewis while the 49ers will rally around Colin Kaepnerick to get their last and first rings, respectively. We don't even have to get into these two coaches' top notch motivational abilities.
In other words, do we really know what it is we don't know? I've been fitting the Ravens into a neat and tidy analogy to the 2011/07 Giants who were just destined to beat the high-flying Patriots in those two Super Bowls. I've also been thinking that the 49ers look just about unbeatable on both sides of the ball and in a number of individual matchups because of their two impressive playoffs outings. But this will be a different kind of game than those the Giants, Ravens or 49ers have played, and the playoff sample size is still pretty small at the end of the day. Both of these teams could have been eliminated before they got here between Baltimore's miraculous Hail Mary at Mile High and the 49ers' test against the Falcons who had multiple opportunities to go ahead in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship but couldn't capitalize. I question my assumptions about these teams here, but you gotta break some eggs to make this omelet already.
Q5: So what's your dumb prediction already?
I don't know how and I don't know why, but I have a bizarre and unshakable feeling that the Ravens will win this one. This looks like one of the most even splits in predictions we've seen in a while among pundits even though San Francisco still has a 4-point advantage in Vegas. Heck, the 49ers might well outplay Baltimore statistically in most or all phases of the game, but somehow I think the Ravens will pull it off. Chalk it up to the experience (which might matter a lot) or the "we've come this far" narrative (which I think matters a whole lot more), but I think Baltimore on the backs of Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata and Ed Reed among others will figure out how to do enough to keep Colin Kaepernick off balance while Joe Flacco attacks San Francisco's good-not-great secondary with the confidence of a contract hunter. I see at least one costly young QB mistake for Kaepernick and one shanked field goal for David Akers that will take away the Niners' margin. John gets the longer tenure/older sibling bump in order to keep up with Jim's more stacked roster and calculated risk-taking. In a close one, it's Ravens 27, 49ers 24. MVP: Joe Flacco
So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 7 - 3
Against the Spread: 6 - 4
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