Here's your Week 4 Recap in Quick Snap form. I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting. This week: Why the Traditional QB Role Is Overrated (or Why Joe Flacco Is Better Than You Think). But first, the good stuff:
Week 4: The Good Stuff
- Call It A Comeback - At least three second-half comebacks come to mind from Week 4 that fans can be proud of, especially this girl since they helped me dominate with my picks for the week.
- First, just when the going was looking pretty rough for the Patriots trailing by 2 TDs in Buffalo, Tom Brady and friends put up a whopping 45 points in the second half to get back on track in the AFC East. 45. That's sheer statistical insanity even by college ball standards.
- Then, there was new Redskins kicker and Baltimore exile Billy Cundiff putting up a game-winning 41-yard field goal in the waning seconds in Tampa. This wouldn't be outside of the ordinary except that Cundiff had already missed 3 previous very attainable field goal attempts, so bravo to this not-so-lonesome kicker for rediscovering his mojo when it mattered most.
- But the best Sunday comeback in my mind has to go to Matt Ryan's 1-minute drill at home against the Panthers. Trailing by a point at the Falcons' own 1-yard line, Ryan somehow connected with Roddy White on a 60-yard pass from the back of his own end zone. Chalk it up to the Panthers' continuing defensive struggles or pure luck if you want, but these are the kinds of plays that put you on the MVP shortlist and in great early position for success in the playoffs.
- Call It A Bounceback - As honorable mentions to the above comebacks, a lot of teams facing high expectations this season had resounding wins after sub-par Week 3 performances. They include the Green Bay Packers overcoming rough officiating yet again versus the Saints, San Francisco and Denver lighting up lesser opponents for 30+ point margins of victory, and San Diego and Philly getting key wins in the divisional column to go to 3 - 1.
- Nailed It! My Best Week 4 Prediction: I have an embarrassment of riches to choose from this week with my best game picks record to date (13 - 2), though I will concede that some games out played out a bit differently than I anticipated. To that end, I think my 49ers-Jets prediction materialized perfectly in Jersey, at least for San Francisco fans:
- "Don't let the 2 - 1 record fool you, the Jets are going to have to fight for their playoff lives every week from here on out. Unfortunately, desperation and Mark Sanchez don't play well together. The 49ers should rebound nicely with a good old-fashioned defensive grind at the Meadowlands after that shocker in Minnesota last weekend."
- A Less-Than-Winning Attitude in Green Bay - Is it me or have the Packers taken a turn for the uber-whiny since their unexpected playoffs loss against the Giants last January? Clay Matthews first planted the Packers' sour grapes with the claim that "[The Giants] didn't beat us; we beat ourselves." The record kept skipping in Week 1 when Packers CB Jarrett Bush insisted that "We beat ourselves; [the 49ers] really didn't beat us." Don't let the syntax throw you off-- the subtext is the same: that No One is talented or qualified enough to beat the Almighty Packers on their own accord. Only when the Packers stoop to play a less than perfect game should we then consider that their defense and rushing game were crap last year and that they still look pretty beatable when Aaron Rodgers isn't plugging the dam with flawless QB play. Then of course there was the man himself after yesterday's win against the Saints insisting that "We've probably had to deal with more adversity than most of the teams I've played with." Oh really? More adversity than the New Orleans Saints that you beat anyway on Sunday?! Your life must be really hard with all that having to prove yourself on more than one questionable play call. Talk about perspective. I have no problem acknowledging that Green Bay was absolutely robbed last Monday night in Seattle, but don't expect sympathy from any Saints fans when it comes to adversity. For crying out loud, what ever happened to that Next Man Up, Fightin' 6th Seed, No Excuses team that made an improbable run to the Super Bowl two years ago? Title Town is sounding awfully entitled these days, I'm just saying.
- Tony Romo, Yikes - Tony Romo's 5 INT spectacular on Monday night is enough to make a Bieber puke. I'll grant that Romo got absolutely no help from Dez "You want me to run where?" Bryant, who just couldn't seem to haul in those tricky passes that hit him on the hands. I rather enjoyed the evening despite having to cheer for Jay Cutler. If his offensive efficiency with Brandon Marshall wasn't a fluke, the NFC North may be due for a shake up.
- Shanked It! My Worst Week 4 Prediction - I'm obviously mostly pleased with my predictions this week, having shanked it on only two games this time around. Since NYG-Philly was so close and the Rams got by the Seahawks on a fake field goal, I'm going to take this opportunity to acknowledge that my poor, poor winless Saints did much better than I predicted even if they didn't quite get it done at Lambeau. We also got the sloppy shootout everyone was hoping for! Kudos to Drew Brees for protecting the football in spite of the massive imbalance in the passing game and to the Saints defense for earning a 2+ turnover margin and not letting Cedric Benson look like a total genius-- better luck next week against San Diego under the bright Sunday night lights:
- "While we could have ourselves a nice sloppy shootout for the ages, I suspect that the Saints are in for a Lambeau spanking. Despite a short, very rough week for the Packers, you can't ask for better motivation than that Monday night officiating debacle to get Green Bay back on track with still-winless New Orleans in the line of fire. Then there's that Saints defense..."
One thing I bet you didn't see coming this early season was that so many Elite quarterbacks would be falling on hard times through Week 4. Brady, Brees, Rodgers and the Mannings are a combined 8 - 12 so far this year and none of their teams are outright leading their divisions. Meanwhile, the much more regularly maligned Joe Flaccos, Alex Smiths, Christian Ponders and Kevin Kolbs of the world are all on top in their divisions with very strong starts and a whole lot less hype. What's the deal? Here are three theories worth considering:
- Passing Is A Lot of Things, But It Isn't Everything - We were all too eager to dismantle that old adage that Defense Wins Championships last year when two of the worst defensive squads during the 2011 season--the Giants and the Patriots--made their way to the Super Bowl while another defensive bottom-feeder, the Packers, went 15 - 1. Taken out of context, that all sounds well and fine, but the surrounding conditions tell a different story. Both the Giants and the Patriots saw vast improvements on defense towards the end of the regular season that didn't show up in the big statistical picture but served them quite well in the postseason. The Packers on the other hand were finally exposed for their imbalances and find themselves in a much less favorable situation this year without Rodgers firing on all cylinders all the time. We've seen Drew Brees' Saints languish in similar but worse conditions. With a much less stable offensive line, a paltry running game and a defense that has yet to help New Orleans sustain a lead, Brees is still shouldering most of the game and forcing risky plays in a vacuum of support. Meanwhile, the "maligned" QBs I mentioned above all have some combination of the following ingredients that make life a little easier under center: a solid offensive line, a balanced running game, a stingy and/or opportunistic defense and very reliable special teams. In case you were thinking of it, I wouldn't exactly consider any of these teams' early schedules to be easy either since they've all had wins against top tier opponents.
- The Game Is Evolving Yet Again - In the same way that we see major league baseball shift cyclically from a game of pitchers to a game of batters and back, I can't help but wonder if we're seeing a new defensive renaissance in the NFL come to fruition to deal with this so-called quarterback-dominant league. After the 49ers' wildly unorthodox success last season in particular, we are seeing more teams like the Seahawks, Cardinals and Buccaneers building solid foundations on defense to account for instabilities on offense. Of course, Baltimore and Pittsburgh have done it for years with consistently excellent results, but now that the cat's out of the bag and the defensive scheming is getting more innovative to discombobulate the Peyton Mannings of the world (re: MNF against the Falcons), who's to say where we'll be in five years?
- There's More Than One Way to Be A Winning QB - I owe a shout-out to my good friend and fellow football fan extraordinaire Jeanie, who gave me the idea for this feature when she came across Bill Barnwell's recent article on Grantland. In a nutshell, Barnwell uses fancy statistics to purport that Joe Flacco rides the coattails of that elite Ravens defense and is average at best on his own merit. Jeanie [and I] respectfully disagree. In Jeanie's most-eloquent words:
- I’m starting to be surprised at how interested people are in finding ways to diminish Flacco. Yes, we’ve all heard that silly stat about his win record, but no one takes it seriously—I’ve never heard a Ravens fan try to use that stat as a way to brag about Flacco. We fully understand the role our defense plays in Every Single Game. We felt lucky that we made it to the playoffs with rookie quarterback that first year (and subsequent years). We’ve tried to get excited about each new QB (with the exception of Kyle Boller) and have been let down a LOT over the years. Baltimore’s finally excited about our QB, and we DO have something to be proud of—but it’s not his win record, it’s the fact that he seems to be genuinely improving year to year, game to game. He’s more confident, making smarter decisions, and he shaved that stupid facial hair... Anyway, congratulations to this guy who went to all the trouble to reaffirm what great QBs Brady and Manning are. Was anyone disputing that? Blurgh.
Not being able to watch games is killing me. On the plus side, I'm enjoying reading the pundits more than ever, since that and highlights are all the NFL I get. And I'm glad your blog is on my shortlist of NFL writing. Another good post. Thanks.
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