2014 Win-Loss Predictons for the NFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC South, one of the more unpredictable divisions year-to-year with lots of upside and just as much uncertainty against the similarly matched NFC North and AFC North this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: After years of stockpiling talent in free agency, the Bucs' potential finally becomes a real thing. Lovie Smith turns Tampa's defense into an East coast Legion of Boom, which in turn allows new QB Josh McCown to ease into the full-time starting gig.  Tampa takes the division crown for the first time in seven years after being favored so many times and falling short.

Worst Case Scenario: Josh McCown goes the way of Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb, quickly regressing to an average-at-best backup QB with a heckuva retirement fund.  The Bucs' inability to shore up their offensive line ends up making this team look just like the many decent but doomed Bears squads in Chicago in years past.

Bellwether Match Up: This likely won't be the highest stakes game Tampa will have this season, but who doesn't want to see Lovie face his old remodeled Bears in Week 12?  With all of the work the Bucs and Bears have put into reaching the top tier of NFL defenses and offenses, respectively, we'll be forced to label this one of those "statement games."

Prediction: Tampa sure looks like a popular sleeper pick going into the season with a solid coaching regime and a defense of heavies.  I won't negate that possibility, but I'm also skeptical of what we really know about Josh McCown at this point, especially with a tough early schedule that includes the Panthers, Falcons, Steelers, Saints and Ravens before the bye.  8 - 8 give or take a game.

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: Atlanta returns to its winning ways under Mike Smith after a down year to regroup, get healthy, and draft one great prospect at left tackle.  Julio Jones plays a whole entire season, taking a page from Calvin Johnson and masking many holes on the roster until January rolls around.

Worst Case Scenario: Recent injuries to Sam Baker and Sean Weatherspoon just add to the Falcons' bad luck and vulnerability in a competitive division and conference.  Even with a healthy Julio, limited protection for Matt Ryan and help on defense mean an improved but mediocre year for the Dirty Birds.

Bellwether Match Up: With the Panthers coming off their best season in ages and the Saints and Bucs making a good case to be preseason favorites in the South, the Falcons have every motivation to start the year off guns a-blazin' in Week 1 when they host New Orleans.  Snatching victory would give the Falcons a huge leg up with a fairly easy first-half schedule.

Prediction: Atlanta has the kind of schedule to get to 13 wins but also the roster challenges to knock them down a tier from what we're used to seeing from Mike Smith and Matt Ryan.  Almost purely based on better competition within their own division, I see the Falcons improving to 8 - 8 in good position to retake the NFC South in 2015.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Given that the Panthers just lived their best case scenario, the ceiling will almost certainly be a little lower this year.  Nevertheless, if Cam Newton can stay out of harm's way and Kelvin Benjamin proves worth the hype, it'll be enough for the Panthers not to negate the work of that elite defense and stay in the hunt late in the season.

Worst Case Scenario: As I expressed here during the annual Love and Hate series, the Panthers look mighty vulnerable to collapse with holes all around the offensive roster. With Cam Newton already hobbling on a bad ankle in the preseason, even Luke Kuechly's bound to get tired of being on the field constantly at some point.

Bellwether Match Up: As returning division champs, the Panthers have it pretty rough this year.  They face the Steelers, Ravens, Bears, Bengals, Packers, Seahawks, Saints and Eagles in eight consecutive weeks, all of whom look like viable playoff candidates going into 2014.  Getting three or four wins during this stretch is critical to proving skeptics wrong about Carolina's chances of repeating.

Prediction: Fact: No team in the NFC South has ever won back-to-back division titles.  I'm a firm believer that this trend will continue in 2014.  With the aforementioned schedule and lack of depth on key parts of the Panthers' roster, I project a precipitous decline of 7 - 9 in Carolina.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Now that Jimmy Graham has gotten paid and New Orleans has acquired shiny new weapons in the secondary, the Saints become the breakout team in the NFC.  They won't go 16 - 0, but they've got the chops to lock up 12 or 13 wins and desperately needed homefield advantage in January.

Worst Case Scenario: As a seasoned Saints fan, I am still bracing for whether or not Rob Ryan's defensive turnaround last year was a fluke.  With Jabari Greer gone and Champ Bailey riding  on a black and gold parachute to retirement, New Orleans' pass coverage could lead to some late-game heartbreakers a la Kembrell Thompkins in 2013 and Vernon Davis in 2011.  Slipping to a wild card spot or no spot at all is in my nightmares.

Bellwether Match Up: If there's an obvious spot for the Saints to improve upon from last year, it is handling the tougher, more physical teams in the league.  They'll have a wealth of opportunities to give it the college try against the Panthers, 49ers and better parts of the AFC North in November.  Personally, I hope Drew Brees' head remains attached to his neck by Thanksgiving.

Prediction: I cringe at the atrocious amount of jinxing I'm about to do, but I am not-so-cautiously optimistic about how the Saints might do this year.  Pretend that you never read that they are going 12 - 4 and getting a first-round bye in January.

Lady Blitz Fantasy Football 2014

Team Bakery Special has returned for Year 2 of fantasy football, and well, you can't accuse me of being a homer with lots of NFC South picks and nary a Saint to show for it.  Nevertheless, I'm pleased at my depth at running back and receiver, and I obeyed the most important fantasy rule ever: Stay the heck away from Eli Manning at all costs.  Without further adieu, here's the full roster:

Starters:

• Matt Ryan (QB)
• Adrian Peterson (RB)
• Alfred Morris (RB)
• Julio Jones (WR)
• Alshon Jeffery (WR)
• Jordan Cameron (TE)
• Cordarelle Patterson (Flex)
• Buccaneers (D/ST)
• Justin Tucker (K)

Bench:

• Carson Palmer (QB)
• Mike Evans (WR)
• Mike Wallace (WR)
• Marquis Lee (WR)
• DeAngelo Williams (RB)
• Chris Ivory (RB)
• Bernard Pierce (RB)
• Martellus Bennett (TE)
• Greg Zuerlein (K)

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC North, which may end up duking it out with the NFC South for one of those wild card spots this season in many an offensive extravaganza.

Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario: The Bears finally make the leap, reclaiming the division title after years of being dominated by Aaron Rodgers' Packers.  Chicago's many receiving weapons and majestic offensive line puts Jay Cutler in the MVP discussion and the Bears look forward to hosting a playoff game in January.

Worst Case Scenario: Cutler can't help but get injured (or contract polio from his children) six weeks into the season and backup Jimmy Clausen is the Timothy Dalton to ex-backup Josh McCown's Roger Moore.  Chicago's defense continues to struggle since the departure of Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers, and they are no match for Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Matt Ryan.

Bellwether Match Up: There are a lot of unknowns about how each team in this division will shake out given a busy free agency period and many coaching shifts, but the Bears and Packers have the upper hand until proven otherwise.  That makes the Bears' Week 10 visit to Lambeau especially important in gaining ground against Green Bay.

Prediction: I really thought long and hard about how high the Bears' ceiling could be this year, and it's up there.  But until Aaron Rodgers stops being Chicago's kryptonite, this team will play a respectable second fiddle at 10 - 6.

Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario: New coach Jim Caldwell has one of those magical years and the Lions become a sleeper NFC team with some of the best offensive skill players in the league.  An upset or two against the Bears and Packers land Detroit in their first wild card spot since 2010.

Worst Case Scenario: Jim Caldwell has one of those miserable years and the Lions are much quicker on the draw with a coaching search this time around.  As much as Detroit has done to diversify its offensive arsenal, an injury to Calvin Johnson or Matt Stafford would be a death knell for Detroit in a competitive division.

Bellwether Match Up: The Lions have many a litmus test this season with division wins at a premium.  How Detroit fares hosting the Packers in Week 3 is a good early indicator of their chances later in the year.

Prediction: I tried to get the Lions closer to 0.500 in my simulations, really I did.  But it's hard to fathom Detroit coming out better than Green Bay or Chicago this season, and they don't appear to have the upper hand against most of the NFC South or the Patriots either.  A hard-fought but dissatisfying 6 - 10 is in the cards.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario: Aaron Rodgers is right up there with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning when it comes to the possibility of going 16 - 0 in a given season.  I don't think that will happen exactly, but Green Bay has a real shot at a #1 seed this year given tougher games in the NFC West and a very manageable schedule.

Worst Case Scenario: Rodgers' collarbone is like a toothpick, and the Packers are exposed as a very one-dimensional team again.  But in a more likely scenario, Green Bay's defense is still a head-scratcher with Dom Capers at the helm - without improvement, this unit could take two steps back for every step forward on an elite offense and put the Packers behind the Bears in the standings.

Bellwether Match Up: There can be no doubt the Packers have merciless vengeance on their minds when visualizing Week 1 against Seattle.  The outcome of that game could have big implications for playoff seeding down the line as does Week 8 in New Orleans.  Going at least 1 - 1 could certainly put Green Bay in pole position.

Prediction: I can't help myself (and neither can Vegas) in projecting a big year for the Packers.  Assuming Green Bay's defense isn't a massive liability, they have the kind of schedule and other-worldly being under center to go 12 - 4 and maybe better.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario: Adrian Peterson is still unstoppable and made better by a stunning rookie year for overlooked QB Teddy Bridgewater.  For all the fuss about the other offenses of the NFC North, the Vikings have the right combination on both sides of the ball to crush the hopes of their rivals, even if they don't quite make it to the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Peterson starts a mid-career regression with no help from a fledgling passing game and new coaching regime. After a brutal early-season schedule, Coach Mike Zimmer has no chance of winning over an already downtrodden locker room and Minnesota has trouble filling that brand new stadium by Week 6.

Bellwether Match Up: "Brutal" may be putting it nicely for the Vikings' first six weeks against the Rams, Patriots, Saints, Falcons, Packers and Lions.  Things lighten up slightly after that, so fans should hope and pray to get at least two wins out of that baptism by fire for Coach Zimmer.

Prediction: I got bad feelings about Minnesota this year, not because the franchise isn't trying to turn things around but because they have no aforementioned mercy against many better opponents.  Unless Bridgewater or Matt Cassel comes out swinging, the Vikings are looking very 5 - 11.

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC East

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC East, which will face the very best (NFC West) and worst (AFC South) divisions in football and probably have yet another topsy-turvy unknowable season of ugly wins and losses.

Dallas Cowboys

Best Case Scenario: Romo carries the floundering Cowboys on his [surgically repaired] back and finally has a clutch Week 17 and a ticket to the playoffs. DC Rob Marinelli gets Dallas’ defense back to mediocre and DeMarco Murray plays for an entire season to give poor Romo a break.

Worst Case Scenario: Oy.  America's Team might lose a few more bandwagoners to the 49ers with an ailing QB/RB, no DeMarcus Ware, no Sean Lee and stiffer competition from the rest of the division.  Finishing at the bottom of the East and the NFC is a possibility.

Bellwether Match Up: Dallas has a pretty tough schedule leading up to its Week 11 bye.  Assuming everyone in the division will ride the win-loss rollercoaster with this schedule, the Cowboys will need to finish strong starting in Week 12 when they face the Giants once and the Eagles twice in four weeks.

Prediction: One of the Cowboys' real peculiarities is that they've had a perfectly 0.500 record since their last Super Bowl win and the onset of Jerry Jones' reign.  I say that changes a bit this year with so many injuries and uncertainties on the roster - Dallas dips down to 6 - 10.

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario: Chip Kelly's offense cannot be stopped with another near-flawless performance from Nick Foles and the addition of Darren Sproles.  The Eagles lock up their second consecutive division title early on and in a better position to compete with the NFC's top brass in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Like many a coaching turnaround in the NFL, Kelly's inaugural season was a fluke bolstered largely by a once-in-a-career year for Nick Foles.  Even with the offense humming, Philly's defense can't endure the quick snap pace and gives back many a victory to opponents in true Eagles fashion.

Bellwether Match Up:The Eagles will have their share of matchups against some of the best defenses in the NFL including a six-week stretch with the 49ers, Rams, Cardinals and Texans.  This could be the ultimate test for that burgeoning, innovative offense if the Eagles are ready to make the leap this year.

Prediction: By virtue of their schedule and still developing approach, Philadelphia's fate has many potential endings this year.  But given the state of the rest of the NFC East and a seemingly superb find in Nick Foles, I'm giving the Eagles at least 9 - 7 and a second division title.

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario: The ever-mercurial Eli Manning flourishes under new OC Ben McAdoo's system with some serious help from a rebuilt offensive line and running game.  The Giants become that once-every-four-years dark horse to sneak into the playoff and crush Bill Belichick's soul again.

Worst Case Scenario: Manning can't get the ghosts of 2013 out of his head and has another abysmal year of turnovers and three-and-outs despite the Giants' attempts at a fresh start.  Big Blue still has enough chops to finish in second place in a mediocre division, but it's enough for Tom Coughlin to finally call it quits and move to Palm Beach.

Bellwether Match Up: It's a fool's errand to assume I know how the East is going to shake out this year or any year, but assuming that the division will come down to the Eagles or Giants, New York better bring its A-Game to Philly in Week 6.  There won't be as much room for error as there used to be for the Giants against the resurgent Eagles.

Prediction: The Giants' running game has looked better in the preseason, and that could be a game-changer for them this year.  But since it's just the preseason, I'm going with a safe 8 - 8 but the prospect of outdueling the Eagles for the division title if the Giants are better than expected.

Washington Redskins

Best Case Scenario: Looking back on Washington's last two seasons, it's a little reductive but all too fair to posit that this team will live or die by Robert Griffin's performance this year.  So if RG3 regains the kind of clout that took this team to the playoffs in 2012, they have as good of a shot as any team in this division to do it again.

Worst Case Scenario: Repeating a miserable 2013 with a gun-shy quarterback and stagnant defense is all too possible for the fragile Redskins.  Given Jay Gruden's mixed bag of success with Andy Dalton and the Bengals, he may be far from the answer this team is looking for unless it gives them a top 5 draft pick in 2015.

Bellwether Match Up: The Redskins have the opportunity to start out the season strong with a winnable first two weeks against the Texans and Jaguars.  Washington could use all the confidence it can get in feeling like this year will be different, so starting 2 - 0 would be a godsend for this turnaround project.

Prediction: I could almost see RG3 shocking the world again with the curse of the Shanahans in his rearview window, but Washington has a lot of work to do at just about every position but running back this season.  I'm putting the Redskins at a typical 5 - 11.

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC West

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC West, a division that stunningly took three out of four teams to the playoffs that were of course not the Raiders.  Never the Raiders.  Anyway, the West has its work cut out to stay on top of the conference with a round of beatings from the NFC West and a cross-coastal rivalry with the AFC East sure to induce some jet lag.

Denver Broncos

Best Case Scenario: Super Manning is like a bullet in outerspace - no gravity to bring him down after the best quarterbacking season of all time as he dominates every defense that comes his way and puts up the cleats for good after a long-sought second Super Bowl victory.

Worst Case Scenario: The Broncos’ offense is totally exposed after an awful Super Bowl drubbing, especially by the stout defenses of the NFC West. Now that Denver faces one of the toughest schedules instead of one of the easiest, the Broncos are brought swiftly back to Earth, a paltry 4th seed in January.

Bellwether Match Up: The Broncos get to face their fears early on, visiting the Seahawks in Week 3. A vengeful win in front of a hostile crowd would shut up a whole lot of Manning critics and restore Denver’s confidence going into an Everest of a season.

Prediction: I like the way the Broncos have responded to a tough Super Bowl loss in the offseason, loading up on defense and replenishing receiving weapons for Peyton Manning. But powderpuff schedule this is not, so I see Denver putting together a solid if not spectacular 11 - 5 kind of season.

San Diego Chargers

Best Case Scenario: Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews are a lethal offensive combo, putting up career-bests in yards and touchdowns under Mike McCoy’s strategic eye. All of the pieces come together for San Diego to seize the division and make a deep run in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Rivers falls back on his old, inconsistent ways, making poor decisions against many an elite defensive opponent. The Chargers’ pass rush fails to spark after Shaun Phillips’ departure and the team is left scraping by with a handful of wins against lesser teams.

Bellwether Match Up: They did it last year despite the long odds, but San Diego will need lightning to strike twice to have a strong finish against some mighty opponents at the end of the 2014 season. In those final five weeks, the Chargers will face the Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs with AFC wins at a premium.

Prediction: It’s hard to say with San Diego. I can talk myself into that Best Case Scenario, but I also think the Chargers got lucky on more than one occasion last year--squeaking by the Chiefs’ second string, for example--to make it to the playoffs. And with that theme of tough schedules at the forefront, 8 - 8 seems like an accomplishment.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case Scenario: The Pro Bowl-stacked Chiefs are still who we thought they were.  Another offseason to gel with Andy Reid and Alex Smith makes Kansas City a well-oiled machine that can repeat and improve upon its playoff presence when January rolls around.

Worst Case Scenario: Refer to wild card weekend: If Jamaal Charles goes down with a significant injury, this team is cooked.  But also, there's the real possibility that the Chiefs won't be able to hang with big-time competition given that they were 1 - 5 against winning teams in 2013, especially since they've lost some important playmakers going into this season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Chiefs will have a steep hill to climb at the beginning of 2014, facing three out of four teams that made it to their respective conference championships last year before the Week 6 bye.  (They get #4, the Seahawks, in Week 11 by the way).  So not getting embarrassed early on in Denver should be Priority 1 for Andy Reid.

Prediction: If you believe in the Plexiglass Principle, then you know that a team that has experienced a precipitous fall or rise in wins like the Chiefs just did will almost surely level to the middle next season.  So it goes for Kansas City, 7 - 9 and all.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case Scenario: Dennis Allen suddenly unleashes a coaching fury like no other and Matt Schaub reveals himself to be Peyton Manning's long lost clone, Super Bowl or bust!  Just kidding.  I'll be stunned if the Raiders get to 0.500, but power to them if so.

Worst Case Scenario: Unfortunately, Oakland's floor is lower than most going into 2014.  Schaub and presumed backup Matt Flynn aren't programmed to do more than manage games, and the Raiders don't appear to have the kind of juice elsewhere on the roster to ground and pound their way through the schedule.  Going at least 0 - 6 is a real possibility.

Bellwether Match Up: The good news for Raiders fans who totally hate me now is that they've got two attainable matchups to start the season between the Jets and the Texans.  If Oakland can eke out a win somewhere in there, they will have already proven me wrong.

Prediction: You might have guessed this wouldn't be pretty, but given the talent level in the rest of the division and so few prospects to get excited about other than newbie Khalil Mack, I see a 3 - 13 Raiders team that will promptly blow its first overall pick in the most Oakland way next spring.

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC South, last year's bottom of the NFL barrel that now has a chance at redemption against the good, the bad and the ugly of the topsy-turvy AFC North and NFC East.

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: Largely on the arm of Andrew Luck, the Colts break through this season as the top seed in the AFC, an official changing of the guard from the Manning/Brady era.  The running game and defense prove serviceable enough to get Indy to the AFC Championship and possibly a Super Bowl appearance that most figure is only a matter of time.  Steve Holt!

Worst Case Scenario: A quiet offseason and lack of overall depth on the Colts' roster leads to a bit of a slump after two surprisingly good seasons with Luck and Coach Chuck Pagano.  Barring any major injuries for the star QB though, it's hard to imagine Indy doing anything less than winning the division and making a third consecutive playoff appearance.

Bellwether Match Up: The Colts were prone to a blowout here and there last season, none more painful than the 22-43 rout in Foxboro during the divisional round of the playoffs.  But they'll have a chance at revenge when they host the Patriots in primetime during Week 11.  A win for Indy could be huge for playoff seeding, especially since the rest of the Colts' schedule is smooth-sailing into January.

Prediction: Indianapolis has the lowest strength of schedule going into 2014, which could mean the best record in the league by the time January rolls around.  I like the Colts' chances of making it far this year, and 12 - 4 or better seems like a solid bet.

Jacksonville  Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: Gus Bradley's overhaul starts paying dividends for the Jaguars as does their gamble on third overall pick Blake Bortles.  With significant reinforcements on the offensive and defensive rosters, Jacksonville finally gets back to respectability with a second-place finish in the AFC South.

Worst Case Scenario: Bortles and/or Chad Henne continue to hold the Jaguars back on offense despite Bradley's efforts to build a top-notch defense.  The lack of depth in the running game means no bright spots for the part of the team charged with putting points on the board and Jacksonville beats itself yet again... but not bad enough to lock up Jameis Winston next year.

Bellwether Match Up: Context clues may have told you I'm not projecting great things for Jacksonville this season but I think they're on a more promising long-term path.  With that spirit in mind, the Jaguars have a chance to finish strong at the end of the season during which they'll face divisional opponents 3 times in the final 4 weeks of the schedule.  Notching a couple solid wins would bring a little more optimism to this A for effort squad.

Prediction: Incremental improvements in the roster mean incremental improvements in the win-loss record.  I can see the Jaguars getting to 6 - 10 this year and competing with the Cleveland Browns for favorite 2015 turnaround project.

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: Jadeveon Clowney, Jadeveon Clowney, Jadeveon Clowney - maybe you've heard of him?  The ferocious long-sought #1 overall draft pick is worth his weight in gold, especially alongside J.J. Watt and even the best offenses in the league are no match for the defense-first Texans.  That gives Houston the option to keep running first and managing their way to a surprising playoff bid a la the 49ers with Alex Smith when Jim Harbaugh first took the helm.

Worst Case Scenario: Clowney is a bust or victim to catastrophic injury, leaving the Texans to continue floundering at the bottom of the barrel, this time with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing pick-sixes in lieu of Matt Schaub.

Bellwether Match Up: Houston should benefit greatly from a powderpuff schedule after clocking in a league-worst 2 - 14 last season.  That could mean no real challenges until Week 6 when they host the Colts on a Thursday night.  The hype between Clowney and Andrew Luck should be fun to watch unfold, but the Texans will also have the opportunity to challenge Indy for a piece of the division record.

Prediction: Schaub was a real problem for the Texans last season, but they also had some ugly blowouts brought about by poor defensive effort in 2013.  So assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick is a marginal improvement for this offense while this Jadeveon fellow is a game-changer, I see the Texans improving to about 7 - 9 with a higher ceiling next year.

Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: The Titans may not be barn-burners on offense, but Ken Whisenhunt proves a worthy architect in the post-Chris Johnson era.  Meanwhile, Tennessee continues to stay in close games on the wings of an underrated big-hit defense led by dark lord Gregg Williams and ACL magnet/strong safety Bernard Pollard.  The Titans elbow their way to a hotly contested second place in the AFC South.

Worst Case Scenario: The Titans are unable to coax Kurt Warner out of retirement, meaning Whisenhunt reverts to his indecisive, minimally effective style of play-calling with no Chris Johnson to cover up for many an offensive flaw.  Tennessee's overperforming defense regresses to the mean, and the team treads water until the 2015 draft.

Bellwether Match Up: Similar to the Texans above, the Titans will have a lot to prove in their own division this year with so many opponents on the rise.  If Tennessee has a real shot at competing in 2014, they'll need to give the Colts a run for their money in Week 4.

Prediction: I do think the Titans should do better than I'm about to put forth, but I just can't get excited about the Whisenhunt hire whilst CJ2K and CB Alterraun Verner--arguably the team's biggest playmakers--headed elsewhere in free agency.  I'm going to bite my cheek and give this bland roster an awful 4 - 12 season.

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC North, an internally competitive division that has opportunities to take many a win from the shaky AFC South, give some back to the usually dangerous NFC South and likely nab more than one playoff spot.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: Despite losing DC Mike Zimmer, the Bengals' depth and experience on defense continues to make them a force to be reckoned with, out-muscling the rival Ravens and Steelers.  Andy Dalton has more good games than bad, allowing Cincinnati to repeat as division champs and finally win that wild card game.

Worst Case Scenario: With both Zimmer and OC Jay Gruden taking head-coaching gigs elsewhere this season, Marvin Lewis struggles to keep his team together against tougher opponents.  Dalton never recovers psychologically from that awful wild card drubbing in January despite wads of cash, and Geno Atkins loses a step upon returning from the ACL injury.  In other words, Cincy becomes a shell of its recent success and reenters an era of mediocrity.

Bellwether Match Up: If you believe, as I do, that the AFC North is going to be far more competitive than it was last year, the stakes will be high for the Bengals out the gate when they travel to Baltimore in Week 1.  The Ravens should be better than they were last year and the Bengals need instant confidence that they can defend the top of the totem pole.

Prediction: So much of the Bengals' fate this season rests on the shoulders of Andy Dalton and the defense's ability to repeat the level of dominance it showed in 2013.  That means Cincy could rise to the top of the playoff seeding or miss the postseason altogether.  I think the Bengals are due for a fall back to Earth at 8 - 8 when their division rivals give them a much harder time.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Johnny Manziel is the savior Cleveland has been waiting for and has a stunning rookie year akin to that of fellow Heisman winner Robert Griffin.  Manziel (or really Brian Hoyer) gel perfectly with the talented, non-suspended Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron and the Browns' offense is clutch enough to sneak this sleeper into the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: After a brutal stretch to start the season, Coach Mike Pettine is pressured into start Manziel way too early, and the flashy rookie prospect tries quite unsuccessfully to play hero ball instead of managing games.  The Browns still have no help in the running game and God hates Cleveland again.

Bellwether Match Up: As mentioned above, the Browns aren't exactly set up for success to start the season with consecutive games against the Steelers, Saints and Ravens.  In all likelihood, they'll begin 2014 at 0 - 3 overall, 0 - 2 in the division.  If that is the case, the quality of the Browns' play is crucial - they cannot afford to get blown out week after week or it will be impossible for Pettine to turn around decades of poor morale.

Prediction: Fact: the Cleveland Browns have won either 4 or 5 games 11 out of the past 13 seasons.  For the pockets of potential the Dawg Pound has these days, it'll be hard to overcome a likely 8-game suspension for Josh Gordon, perpetual QB controversy, and a rookie year at head coach for third-choice at best Mike Pettine.  5 - 11 sounds about right.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: The next generation Ravens defense finds its identity and gets back to winning the games that bad-to-mediocre Joe Flacco cannot.  During Ray Rice's suspension, Baltimore discovers a more effective running-back-by-committee approach that returns the Ravens to the top of the AFC North and the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Flacco continues to flounder like his old, non-2012 self, and Rice's absence/torpedoed reputation is too much for this offense to recover from.  Baltimore repeats last season's lackluster performance with fewer sympathizers this time around.

Bellwether Match Up: Forgive me for sounding like a broken record, but the Ravens also have every reason to get to a fast start in September.  They open with three straight divisional games and could be in the driver's seat for the rest of the season if they walk away 3 - 0.  This of course will be easier said than done given Ray Rice's suspension, but it will be telling to see how well Baltimore can diversify its offensive attack after an ugly offseason.

Prediction: I may be a little generous here given the Ravens' struggles last season, but I think they can get to 9 - 7 with a lot more receiving help for Joe Flacco by way of Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Owen Daniels, and a healthier Dennis Pitta.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: After closing last season on a 6 - 2 hot streak inches away from a playoff berth, the Steelers pick up right where they left off and reclaim the AFC North with a young, evolving roster.  Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount prove a perfect rushing tandem for Pittsburgh's ground-and-pound heart.

Worst Case Scenario: It's hard to imagine the Steelers having a season quite as sloppy as last time, but they lack veteran star power on defense and will have to roll the dice with less experienced players from recent drafts.  That may be enough against lesser teams in the division and the AFC South, but the Steelers could get fleeced by the likes of Andrew Luck, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan in the absence of emerging playmakers.

Bellwether Match Up: Week 9, hosting the Ravens.  If my predictions for the North turn out to be remotely true--and that's a big if--these heated rivals' second bout could determine the division title and possibly who gets to cancel their January golf plans.  It all comes down to who does the better job of rebuilding a defense to write home about.

Prediction: I think Pittsburgh has a high ceiling this season given a manageable schedule and better luck healthwise than in 2013.  The way I see it, a solid running game and a surprise star or two emerging on defense will carry the Steelers to 11 - 5 give or take a game.

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC East

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us start with the AFC East, which better beef up its defensive efforts this year in facing three conference playoff teams from 2013 (Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers) and the vaunted offenses of the NFC North.

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario: Doug Marrone makes real progress in fine-tuning the Bills' offense during his second year at the helm in Buffalo, E.J. Manuel stays healthy enough to have an impact, and Sammy Watkins proves to be a once-in-a-generation receiver.  The Bills have a solid-enough year to generate playoff buzz going into next season.

Worst Case Scenario: Manuel has another rough season of injuries and setbacks and the Bills' defense is rudderless from the start without Jairus Byrd, Kiko Alonso and ex-DC Mike Pettine.  Buffalo has to play catchup with a fledgling offense for nearly every game against much more seasoned opponents.  In other words, disaster.

Bellwether Match Up: It looks to be do or die for the Bills by the time they visit the Jets in Week 8.  Halfway through their divisional games going into the bye week, Buffalo will need to make the case that they can play at least third if not second fiddle to the Patriots to have a shot.

Prediction: I really wanted to give these guys a more promising outlook after a miserable decade-plus of losing records, but the Bills are facing a vortex on a once-solid defense, especially after Kiko Alonso suffered a season-ending injury before Week 1.  With the opponents mentioned above, 5 - 11 seems depressingly fair.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario: Ryan Tannehill finally makes a name for himself within one of the best QB draft classes since 2004, even outgunning one or two of the "elite" passers the Dolphins will face early and often this season.  It's enough to open up Miami's anemic running game and make this team a playoff contender in the turbulent AFC.

Worst Case Scenario: The Dolphins are no better for all of their trouble at offensive line, and Tannehill experiences another year of punishment without much protection or help on the ground.  Miami's so-so defense can't hang with the big guns, and the front office starts preparing for overhaul #27.

Bellwether Match Up: Week 1, hosting the Patriots.  Miami pulled off a surprising late-season victory against New England in 2013 largely due to Tannehill's heroics.  This home opener is a prime opportunity for the Dolphins to prove it wasn't a fluke.  What's the point of saying "no pun intended" anyway?

Prediction: This is a team that has a lot of potential--and thus a lot of variance--in how they pan out this season.  I do think Ryan Tannehill has the chops and, increasingly, the receivers to put this team on his shoulders with games on the line but that offensive line sure makes me nervous.  The Dolphins eke their way to 8 - 8.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario: The Jets defense returns to its stingy, punishing old self with emerging playmakers like Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson dictating the line of scrimmage.  Barring catastrophic injury (ha!) to Michael Vick, the Jets ground-and-pound their way to another surprising playoff berth under Rex Ryan.

Worst Case Scenario: Vick takes Geno Smith's place in making bone-headed, game-ruining decisions before promptly getting injured and throwing a shaky, inexperienced QB (like Smith) back into the mix.  All the smashmouth defense in the world can't hold back opponents when the Jets fail to put points on the board and Rex finally gets the axe.

Bellwether Match Up: The Jets' defense will have its shot at murderer's row for Weeks 2 - 7 during which Gang Green will face Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and then Tom Brady.  Going at least 3 - 4 during that stretch would be a huge accomplishment and a necessity for the Jets to make the playoffs.

Prediction: I've gone back and forth a lot on this one, and I think the Jets will play better than their record will suggest at the end of the season.  But given the above stretch and the fact that Michael Vick just isn't the game-changer he used to be, New York will have to get every bit out of the easier part of their schedule to go 7 - 9.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario: The same as it is every year - the Pats get another shot at Lombardi #4 with one of the very best coaches and QBs in the game, this time without the litany of major injuries that almost didn't impact New England anyway last season.  Plus, Darrelle Revis!

Worst Case Scenario: Another superb year for rival Peyton Manning and/or the Colts drops the Patriots in the playoff seeding, making the road to Phoenix more difficult.  Also, Rob Gronkowski goes down in Week 3 and Tom Brady has to keep making miracles happen with a still-developing receiving corps.

Bellwether Match Up: The same as it is every year - hosting Manning's Broncos in Week 9 with homefield advantage throughout the playoffs possibly on the line.

Prediction: I know there are at least a couple Patriots fans out there who are seething that I'm jinxing their team like this.  But considering how close the Bill Belichick machine got to the Super Bowl last year with so many challenges to overcome, could we expect anything less than at least 12 - 4 this year?

Top 10 NFL Games to Watch in 2014

What's that tiny white speck off in the distance?  Is it the light at the end of the baseball and golf-filled summer sports programming tunnel?  We are a mere 2 days away from the 2014 preseason and just 34 agonizing days away from Game 1 of the regular NFL season.

I've got a few blogging tricks left up my sleeve now that we're back in full swing, but it's never too early too look ahead to the best games on the schedule so you can plan all those upcoming weddings, baptisms and appendectomies around them.  In chronological order, here are 10 NFL Games to Watch in 2014:

1) Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 1

You gotta hand it to whoever does the scheduling for the season opener these days.  There's no doubt that Fail Mary 2.0 will get all the pre-game hype we can handle and not just because it's the official kickoff for the 2014 regular season.  Aaron Rodgers has had September 4th circled on the calendar for a loooong time, and you better believe the Packers are ready to avenge the blown call heard round the world even if it means getting steamrolled in the hostile environs of the newly Lombardi-ed Seahawks.  Prediction: As much as I believe the Packers are due some cosmic justice for what happened in Seattle in 2012, how could I possibly bet against the team that just smacked Peyton Manning around like he was JV and the12th Man?

2) Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens, Week 4

An obvious but great angle to this intra-conference matchup is WR Steve Smith suiting up in purple against the only other professional team he's ever known.  He was none too thrilled.  People cried... but mostly because their dads were attention-seeking trolls.  Anyway, an equally intriguing but sure-to-be-overshadowed part of this matchup will be the clash of two great and still rising defenses.  It may not be pretty or high-scoring, but I expect some bloody noses, turnovers, and embarrassing moments for Joe Flacco and/or Cam Newton.  Prediction: Seeing as how Cam Newton would probably give anything to have even the mid-grade receiving corps that Joe Flacco does, I think the Ravens have the edge at home.

3) Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers, Week 5

If you've got the stomach for another week of heartfelt reunions, Alex Smith will return to the place that scorned him for many years, then sort of liked him for a minute, then looked the other way entirely when Colin Kaepernick proved to be a worthy replacement while Smith was getting his head checked.  After a great debut season with the Chiefs, Smith is still looking for respect and long-term cash but he'll have to settle for plain vengeance in the meantime.  I doubt the 49ers will make it easy on him, but hopefully fans will be just as classy toward him in the new digs as he was when he was eagerly pacing the sideline, waiting to be traded from San Francisco two years ago.  Prediction: As surprising as the Chiefs were last season, they didn't have a schedule like this and have lost a step on key parts of their roster.  Give it to the home team again.

4) Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 9

Like #5 below, it's impossible to leave this kind of storied rivalry off the list - it rarely disappoints, no matter how these two teams seem to be faring otherwise.  Whether the Steelers are pulling off a mind-boggling upset with Charlie Batch at the helm or Joe Flacco is throwing that once-in-a-season immaculate Hail Mary, or Mike Tomlin's playing chicken with the punt return, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are always popcorn-worthy.  And they both look to be on the rebound this season and likely fighting for playoff territory by Week 9.  Prediction: Who knows?  As always, they'll find a way to split this series.

5) Denver Broncos at New England Patriots, Week 9

In case you lost count, we are due our 16th head-to-head battle between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady this season with a high likelihood of getting to 17 in the postseason. It'll be hard to top the tug-of-war overtime extravaganza of #14 in Foxboro last season, but America deserves a better battle between these two perennial winners than #15's AFC Championship could afford. At least Wes Welker will be far less motivated to take out Aquib Talib with a rib shot this time around. Prediction: Tom Terrific rarely disappoints at home and against Peyton Manning.  If Rob Gronkowski survives through Week 9, it's in the bag.

6) San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints, Week 10

Some would put the 49ers-Saints game of 2013 right under the original Fail Mary in terms of playoff-altering blown calls.  With New Orleans on the cusp of field goal range on a go-ahead drive, Ahmad Brooks hit Drew Brees hard to force and recover a fumble but Brooks was then flagged for roughing the passer and the resulting loss put San Francisco behind Seattle for good in the division standings. So the Niners are going to play the Saints very hard this time around for their third matchup in as many seasons.  If it's anything like the last one or Alex Smith's miraculous drive in 2011 divisional playoffs that left me clinically depressed for weeks, we're in for another ride.  Prediction: I don't like it and you probably don't like it either if you read this blog, but I get the sense this is a game of destiny for the 49ers and they'll do whatever it takes to keep Drew Brees on the ground, yellow flags or not.

7) Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 10

It's not a classic rivalry, really, but Panthers-v.-Eagles is still an intriguing matchup for a variety of reasons.  Both teams were surprising division champs in 2013, finally turning the corner after years of mediocrity and missed chances.  And they may have the toughest uphill battle to repeat that kind of success.  On another level, though, this should be a fascinating clash of styles - the Panthers being of the slow, physical, in-the-mud grind and the Eagles of the turbo-powered 80-snap offensive romp.    Prediction: This is a tough call [3 months from now] since both teams have some question marks going into 2014.  I feel like the Panthers will be a better second-half team with so many changes, and they have just the kind of athleticism on defense to keep Philly off rhythm.  Kuechly for president.

8) Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, Week 13

Strike up the turkey carver, we get to have a divisional family reunion between two of the most talented and heated rivals in the game on Thanksgiving.  San Francisco has proven a much more formidable opponent in recent meetings since getting routed by Seattle in Week 2 last season, so don't expect a cakewalk for the returning champs.  Do expect Michael Crabtree to go into hiding though.  Prediction: Like the Steelers and Ravens, I fully expect these rivals to split their divisional series in 2014.  Under the bright lights in the bay, I like the Niners giving fans something else to celebrate on Turkey Day.

9) Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts, Week 13

Russell Wilson may have eclipsed his 2012 QB draftmates for now, but I'm holding out hope that No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck and No. 2 RG3 give us a duel to remember at Lucas Oil in November.  Luck shows no signs of slowing down after two 11-win seasons and a playoff victory under his belt, but Griffin's another story after a lackluster 2013 campaign at less than 100%.  But if Washington can turn it around under new leadership in a division that's always up for grabs this draft class clash has plenty of tasty bylines to get too excited about.  Prediction: Although much remains to be seen in Luck's and Griffin's development, Luck is at least a lap ahead going into 2014 and Griffin needs a whole lot of help from his defensive teammates.  The Colts have the edge until proven otherwise.

10) New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers, Week 13

The above QB duel is intriguing but merely an opening act to a rare cross-conference meeting between two of the very best, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.  Trust me, it would have been a Super Bowl to remember if the Patriots and Packers could have eked their way to the chilly Meadowlands.  Anyway, after facing setbacks due to injury last season, both teams look ready to bounce back and have another shot at the Lombardi in 2014.  The stakes will be steep by the time Brady and Rodgers enter their second face off of all time at Lambeau.  Prediction: Something tells me this is the kind of game that Bill Belichick lives for - a substantial defensive challenge and the opportunity to prove that his QB is still the best in the game.  I think the Pats pull off the upset.