The Four Kinds of Free Agency Teams

Ok, ok I can write one little piece about my limited knowledge of sports economics while we live in the sports desert between post-March Madness and September.  It's been an interesting offseason so far to say the least - Elvis Dumervil might take an Office Space-style bat to his fax machine while there have been so many high-profile moves already that someone's bound to become their own grandfather on the org chart.  Anyway, I'll spare you the speculation about whether any one of these moves will be worthwhile since that's a useless Google search away, but at a more macro level, here's what most teams' front offices can be unfairly reduced to in four categories:

The Nouveau Riche/Hoarder Front Office

2013 Exemplars: Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks

Field Guide: With ample cap space and/or big value trades, these teams have a lot of cash and have spent it in relative nanoseconds on the highest-profie free agents money can buy.  The Dolphins have far and away reeled in the biggest deals so far with WR Mike Wallace, LB Dannell Ellerbe, CB Brent Grimes and TE Dustin Keller among others.  The 49ers have also made a splash so far with WR Anquan Boldin (who just had a career year with the Ravens), a more reliable veteran kicker in Phil Dawson, and bargain bin DB Nnamdi Asomugha to fill in for now-Buccaneer Dashon Goldson.  Let's not forget the Niners also have a small village worth of draft picks in the next couple of years.  Finally, to keep up with the division rival arms race, the Seahawks got a WR sparkplug of their own with Percy Harvin and even more depth on defense with Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett.

Potential Upsides: Analogous to the Denver Broncos' acquisition of Peyton Manning in 2012, these teams are paying for something that a highly reputed draft pick or a standout role player cannot provide: historically proven performance as an NFL starter.  Sometimes landing even one or two top players in a position brings with it the leadership, respect and consistency to take a team to the next level.

Potential Downsides: How about those 2011-12 Philadelphia Eagles? They created a supposed fantasy team during one of the most highly-touted free agency runs in the NFL history... and then proceeded to limp to 12 - 20 over two seasons.  Giving a current or recently-acquired star a huge chunk of change has just about zero guarantees when it comes to future performance.  Just ask recent free agent Mario Williams.

The Fire Sale Front Office

2013 Exemplars: Baltimore Ravens, Baltimore Ravens, Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears

Field Guide: The converse to the buy-happy nouveau riche above is the fire sale front office that is all too eager to dump its more expensive players to make way for the next generation.  You might have guessed that the Ravens fit this category to a tee, and truthfully, it might have been the best case scenario for them in 2013.  With aging and expensive veterans who've just climbed the highest NFL mountain, the Ravens could have broken the bank retaining a roster with relatively few years of productivity left of just started rebuilding with the draft and lower-profile acquisitions.  With Ray Lewis retiring and Anquan Boldin, Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, and Bernard Pollard all headed for cash-filled pastures, the Ravens definitely took the latter path, albeit with Joe Flacco's massive contract on their shoulders.  To a lesser extent, the Bears also fit this category, mainly because the overhaul is on to become a much more offensively-oriented team.  Chicago first parted ways with defensive guru HC Lovie Smith and, by extension, DC Rod Marinelli before letting linebackers Brian Urlacher and Nick Roach walk away.  The Bears will also likely lose DT Israel Idonije while it makes room for all kinds of offensive additions from Jermon Bushrod to Martellus Bennett to suit new coach Mike Trestman's style.

Potential Upsides: For teams like these, there's no sense in delaying the inevitable.  IF the era is over, saddling the organization with costly long-term contract renewals will severely limit opportunities to rebuild more quickly and smartly.  Just look at the turnaround for the Colts who went from 2 - 14 in 2011 to 11 - 5 in 2012 with only a couple of notable vets remaining (Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney) and lots of surprising new talent.

Potential Downsides: The biggest issue with this approach is stability.  For the Ravens to lose not one but two integral leaders in Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, for example, means that Baltimore needs to establish a different but productive culture.  Players who've had limited or no regulation playing time will have to manufacture confidence on Day 1 of the 2013 season, and more senior players must take charge in the locker room now to fill a motivational void.

The Wall Street Front Office

2013 Exemplars: New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons

Field Guide: Sentimental these teams are not.  Like a good stock broker, they let go of a lot of players at their perceived peak performance and buy low on up-and-coming players with potential.  The Patriots front office has maintained this reputation for years, trading around just about everyone but No. 12 and the old guy with the hoodie.  They let go of scampering law firm Benjarvis Green-Ellis--who had a great year in Cincinnati anyway--only to get even better production out of Stevan Ridley.  They've given Deion Branch more farewell tours than Cher while making just about every WR replacement look like a god including now-departing Brandon Lloyd.  Most recently, the Pats let fan favorite Wes Welker go to arch-nemesis Peyton Manning and the Broncos without batting an eye, save for Tom Brady's tears.  Despite all the moving and shaking, New England continues to be a postseason favorite year in and year out.  While the Falcons may have made a questionable move or two this offseason (I think Stephen Jackson might be a bust), they've begun to adopt a similar front office philosophy by letting go of highly respected Michael Turner, John Abraham, and Dunta Robinson on the same day and then CB Brent Grimes a month later.  They also let go of productive Curtis Lofton and sunk cost Ray Edwards during the previous year.  With a solid passing unit intact, Atlanta continues to build its team around its most valuable assets while churning the rest of the roster pretty regularly without losing ground so far under Mike Smith.

Potential Upsides: As with the fire sale group above, this approach allows for efficient management of resources and talent.  These guys would sooner start from scratch than risk overpaying just about anyone not named Tom Brady or Matt Ryan on their rosters, and that tends to motivate other players to perform consistently to avoid the chopping block.  Moreover, fans are now coming to expect these moves for the most part instead of getting too attached to favorites past their primes since their teams have a boatload of cap space to bring in new talent.

Potential Downsides: A preference for this kind of roster movement year after year creates more risk as well.  While some moves work out swimmingly, others create holes and expose previously unknown vulnerabilities that cannot be solved overnight.  The Patriots themselves are a prime example of this - even though Tom Brady continues to play out of his mind year after year, New England has never found quite the same quality on defense and in its running game that it had between 2000 - 2007 and hasn't hoisted a Lombardi since 2005.

The Tortoise Front Office

2013 Exemplars:Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals

Field Guide: A great number of NFL teams fall into this category this year - slow to release/trade players and even slower to sign new additions to the roster despite a very active first month of free agency.  Perhaps the first two teams are a little unfair to place here since they face some cap space restrictions for past violations, but they also have different motivations.  The Redskins may live and die by RG3's recovery in 2013-14 but they've got many of the right pieces already with rookie breakout RB Alfred Morris and a healthier defense with Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker returning.  No need to rush things there.  Likewise, Cincy has spent most of its time and money so far resigning defensive free agents Jones, Johnson and Maualuga, which feels like a good move after a great 2012 passing rushing effort.  The Cowboys and Chargers are more puzzling since both have now made significant coaching changes and have lackluster past performance and rosters to start from.

Potential Upsides: If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  This is apparently the mantra for the Bengals and Redskins since both had solid 2012 seasons and playoff bids.  A latent upside for all of these teams, though, is that it's becoming a buyer's market in free agency now that most of the marquee names have found new homes.  On the defensive side of the ball in particular, there are some surprisingly big names still floating around including Dwight Freeney and Charles Woodson.  Given that each of these players is heading into the sunset of his career and that others have gotten inked first, the tortoises have a shot to get significant veteran talent cheaper and also better avoiding costly pitfalls of the early spending frenzy by finding equitable but lesser known talent.

Potential Downsides: There are those rare cases of free agency that really pay off for the team that makes the first offer, and the tortoise front office will miss out on this.  Drew Brees' 2006 move to the Saints is a prime example as is aforementioned Peyton Manning going to the Broncos.  Beyond these situations, teams put themselves at a disadvantage far more often by spending too much time evaluating prospective talent and/or negotiating deals unsuccessfully that they miss the window to adjust when Plan A doesn't work out.  That pretty much happened to the Cleveland Browns vying for coaching replacement Chip Kelly and ending up with Rob Chudzinski instead.