Okay, okay, the long-promised and potentially anticipated Way-Too-Early Predictions for Each Team's Win-Loss Record and Playoff Chances series is on its way in the coming weeks, but I have two confessions to make: 1) the risk-averse person in me just cannot finalize this stuff until the franchise tag deadline next Monday; and 2) it is actually really, really hard to predict 256 games based on pure speculation, prior performance and hearsay. It will get done, just not before Drew Brees' contract.
In the meantime, why don't we synchronize our smartphone calendars for my Top 10 Most Anticipated Games in the 2012 NFL Season?
Week 1, San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Herein lie two teams that have monster expectations to live up to this season. Last year produced historic offensive and defensive performances in the Packers and 49ers, respectively, so this one should be a philosophical match up for the ages and a simulation of the NFC Championship game many hoped would happen this past January.
Prediction: The Packers redeem themselves for last season's early playoff exit, leveraging their invaluable MVP and home field advantage. Alex Smith pouts.
Week 2, Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
This one may end up being less eventful than we're all hoping for, especially since Jims Schwarz and Harbaugh will be overly willing to be on their best behavior after last season's Handshake Gate. Still, this Week 2 game will be a good window into whether or not the surprisingly good Lions and 49ers of 2011 can continue their winning momentum into 2012.
Prediction: Licking their wounds after a Week 1 loss to the Packers, the 49ers will be fired up enough to give the Candlestick crowd a homecoming to remember. The Lions go out for a DUI down Lombard Street in defeat.
Week 4, New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
In Part 2 of franchises we thought would face off in the NFC Championship last time, New Orleans will head to Green Bay where these two explosive teams will try to put offensive yardage in the quadruple digits. Hopefully their allegedly improved defenses won't prevent them from matching the excitement of the Brees/Rodgers duel of Week 1, 2011.
Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wears down the Saints secondary by the end of the third quarter, doing an extra smug championship belt dance (sans State Farm dollaz). Drew Brees wonders if $20.5 mil/year would have prevented that untimely interception late in the fourth.
Week 5, Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Ah, the return of the annual Peyton Manning v. Tom Brady scowl off. It has been sorely missed, and I predict it will be just as good this time around due almost entirely to Manning's immutable competitive drive... And also a desperate need to prove that Eli isn't the only Manning who can out-Brady Brady (except that he is).
Prediction: Tom Terrific takes advantage of the same defensive squad that looked very Division II against the Patriots in January with his frost-tipped fauxhawk perfectly in tact. Peyton complains to the refs that Vincent Wilfork is licking his lips a little too much for comfort.
Week 9, Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
Call this one Heisman-Fest/Palooza/Gate 2012. Cam Newton will go up against his hybrid QB/RB clone successor just as RG3 is presumably getting the big league experience he needs to start winning this season. Expect Mike Shanahan and Ron Rivera to develop shorthand and/or pre-recorded play calls for The Option.
Prediction: Rob will have a defense to support him, but Cam will have the experience and receiving corps to eke out a win at FedEx Field. RG3 reminds himself that he will still have a Heisman Trophy in two years.
Week 11, Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
As they are apt to do, these AFC North rivals will not face off until mid-November, which will make for an excellently urgent and hard-fought playoff spot battle, hopefully with a healthy Terrell Suggs in tow. With the sun setting on aging defensive greats like Ray Lewis, (maybe) Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison, look for their understudies to start making memorable plays in this prime time spectacular.
Prediction: One way or another, these teams will split their annual division series. Therefore, if Suggs is back the Ravens win at Heinz. If not, they win at home. James Harrison keys my car for being so indecisive.
Week 12, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
While the Giants may still be the team to beat in the NFC East at this point in the season, don't expect this 50% of the division to make it easy (and Washington may not be too far behind either). Assuming Michael Vick can stay healthy, I'm very much looking forward to that unstoppable force squaring off against immovable object Demarcus Ware.
Prediction: Since it will still be November, the Cowboys find a way to inch ahead in division standings in a wild overtime finish. DeSean Jackson spikes the ball anyway.
Week 14, Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Judging by last season's performances and some notable offseason moves and upgrades for these two teams, the Texans and Patriots may end up being the most powerful and balanced teams in their conference in 2012. (I'll also take this opportunity to call your attention to the dearth of noteworthy AFC teams/games worth mentioning in this series-- sorry!) Expect this one to be a wildly entertaining old-guard/new-kids prelude to the 2013 AFC Championship.
Prediction: I'm going to go against what my gut tells me about the Pats' abilities in a snowy Gillette Stadium and give the upset to a healthy Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson getting it done on a late fourth quarter drive. Gronkowski goes clubbing to dance off the haters.
Week 16, New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens
The Super Bowl XLVI That Should Have Been. Thanks to Lee Evans' endzone butterfingers and Billy Cundiff's inability to count to four this past January, the Ravens were again just a nanometer shy of making it to the big dance with Joe Flacco under center and John Harbugh on the sidelines. Who's to say how Mario Manningham would have done on the outside in Indianapolis under the care of Ed Reed? Hopefully we'll get to find out this December in Charm City.
Prediction: With the Giants sufficiently pummeled by a brutal season schedule and the aging Ravens gearing up for a swan song playoff run, all of the momentum is in Baltimore's favor for this one. Tom Coughlin's face completes its transformation into a rat.
Week 16, St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Not exactly the elite competition you were expecting to round out this list, eh? No worries-- sometimes the best games are between teams that are pretty evenly matched with a lot to prove. The Rams and Bucs will square off in Week 16 after a near-complete season of rebuilding under new management. By now, we'll know who's ready to challenge the top of their division in 2013 and who's going to get the better draft pick instead.
Prediction: Jeff Fisher returns to his old coaching form and gouges the Tampa defensive front with rushing juggernaut Stephen Jackson. The older but still hungry Bucs start training for next year's Nathan's hot dog eating contest.
July 13, 2012
July 9, 2012
A Reason to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Season: NFC West Edition
Phew, we've come to the end of our whirlwind inaugural blog series for the 2012 NFL season. Without further ado, here is a reason to love and hate every team in the NFC West this season:
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks
That's all for my inaugural series for the 2012 NFL season. Next up, way-too-early predictions for each team's win-loss record and playoff chances, which should eventually give us some good comedic material in February.
Arizona Cardinals
Love - Larry Fitzgerald Is the Eternal Love of Scottsdale
In Arizona, three things are certain: death, taxes and Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald. He performs at a high level as consistently as anyone else in the league, even if QB Kevin Kolb still looks like a dolt in comparison for some reason. Now Fitz has an excellent opportunity to mold rookie Michael Floyd in his image and mask the weaknesses under center.
Hate - Swiss Cheese in the O-Line
Though the real problem for the Cardinals may be the kiddie-pool depth at quarterback this year, the offensive line certainly hasn't helped. It took only the blink of an eye for Kevin Kolb's season to end early last year, and the Cards are second only to the Rams in sacks allowed last year. Do you think it's a coincidence that both of these teams have to face the 49ers twice a year? Add to that a number of other solid defensive teams/pass rushers on the Cardinals' schedule in 2012 (Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Lions and Bears, oh my!) and they are in real trouble.San Francisco 49ers
Love - A Perfectly Intact, Elite Defense
Sometimes lightning strikes twice, especially if you're able to return all 11 of your most-excellent defensive starters for 2012. West coast offense be damned, the new 49ers have proven themselves more than worthy contenders with an old-school smashmouth brand of football and a coach who keeps the motivational fire burning bright. And they're probably hungry for vengeance after some unfortunate special teams snafus that dashed their chances late in the NFC Championship last year.
Hate - Still Having to Rationalize Alex Smith's Existence
Here's the thing about that NFC Championship game against the Giants in January: the 49ers never really were winning the game on offense. Alex Smith achieved a paltry 46% completion rate, and the team converted only 1 of 13 third downs compared to the Giants' 7 conversions. Yes, Alex Smith mostly managed games and avoided costly turnovers in 2011, but if other teams' defenses weren't catching his passes, neither were the 49ers receivers. Repeat after me: "in spite of, in spite of, in spite of" Alex Smith. Now that he's got a hefty long term deal with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kevin Kolb, don't be surprised if this middling QB slips further into the clutches of mediocrity in 2012.St. Louis Rams
Love - Jeff Fisher's Return to the NFL Coaching Scene
Not to knock current Titans' head coach Mike Munchak, but Bud Adams was an absolute moron to let Jeff Fisher go a year ago. Good thing the Rams still have respect for the man who was just a yard shy of forcing them into overtime in Super Bowl XXIV. It'd make for great sports drama if Jeff Fisher can do for St. Louis what Jim Harbaugh did for San Francisco and turn the Rams' raw talent into winning consistency. He certainly deserves the opportunity.
Hate - Turnaround Does Not a Winner Make... Yet
I'm still skeptical about any Cinderella stories in St. Louis though, at least for now. Sam Bradford really needs to step it up and rediscover his momentum ASAP. And while the Rams have obtained some great prospects on the defensive side of the ball in free agency and the draft, there's that elephant in the room: a gaping hole at Defensive Coordinator. How will this brand new coaching staff allocate its limited time and energy with all of the young Rams' developmental needs when the NFL's own Darth Vader emeritus (and current Rams DC) Gregg Williams is suspended from the league indefinitely due to the NOLA Bountygate?Seattle Seahawks
Love - More Beast Mode
A star was born in the Emerald City in 2010 when the undermost of underdog Seahawks--the only team in NFL history to enter the playoffs with a losing record--stunned the reigning Saints in the wild card round. The icing on the cake was Marshawn Lynch who showed us the very definition of beast mode by taking down Saints defender after defender on a very memorable TD run. Lynch continues to impress and will provide much-needed consistency and resilience to a team with many question marks remaining in the offense.
Hate - Pete Carroll's Commitment Phobia at QB
Yes, the Seahawks nabbed former Packers backup QB Matt Flynn during the offseason to the tune of $26 million, but is it just me or is Pete Carroll curbing his enthusiasm over Flynn a little too much for comfort? A bit of competition for starter status can be healthy, but Carroll is continuing to let Matt Flynn, middle-round draftee Russell Wilson, and Tavaris Jackson duke it out under center well into July at this point. The Seahawks need look only at the 2011 Jaguars to know that the sooner they commit to a starter QB, the better their chances for growth and stability will be this year.That's all for my inaugural series for the 2012 NFL season. Next up, way-too-early predictions for each team's win-loss record and playoff chances, which should eventually give us some good comedic material in February.
July 5, 2012
A Reason to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Season: NFC South
In Part 7 of my preseason punditry, we take a look at reasons to love and hate every team in the NFC South this season:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Love- Watching the Schiano Experiment Go Live
Given the instantaneous rise and fall of recently-ousted TB head coach Raheem Morris, newbie Greg Schiano's prospects may look just about as inviting as a drummer gig with Spinal Tap. Still, early training camp reports suggest that Schiano has already done wonders reigning in his talented and "youngry" Buccaneers. With superb free agency acquisitions and an enviable draft class, Tampa may prove more than respectable in 2012 under new management.
Hate - A Rushing Defense Only a Mother Could Love
Although much attention has been given to the recent explosion of the passing game in the NFL, running the ball still matters, especially if you want to open up said explosive passing game. Tampa ranked dead last in rushing defense in 2011 in yards per game and TDs allowed, and there's no indication that this will improve dramatically in 2012. Given that the Bucs will have to face Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Stephen Jackson, Willis McGahee, Michael Turner (twice), DeAngelo Williams (twice) and the Saints' 3-to-4-headed monster (twice) this year, the Bucs better take special care with that Achilles' Heel.Atlanta Falcons
Love - A Budding Ryan/Jones Bromance
Up to now, Matt Ryan hasn't exactly been the flashiest QB in the NFL, but he gets the job done on a consistent basis with a receiving corps that includes Mr. Dependable Tony Gonzalez and mouthy-but-clutch Roddy White. We also saw a lot of promise in 2011 with the addition of rookie WR Julio Jones whose relationship with Matty Ice will be key to Atlanta's offensive success this year. Ryan might not have the chops to mimic the Stafford-Johnson connection in Detroit, but it'll be close enough for the Falcons to keep winning.
Hate - A Business-As-Usual Playoffs Collapse
Of course, there's the regular season Atlanta Falcons that have looked like legitimate NFC contenders for the past four years, and then there's the postseason team that couldn't even make it out of the gate against the Cardinals (2009), Packers (2011) and Giants (2012). It'll be tough for the Dirty Birds fanship to move past a less than enthusiastic wait-and-see mentality until the Falcons can prove their mettle after December. Otherwise, coach Mike Smith's seat is going to start getting real toasty.Carolina Panthers
Love - The Maturation of Cam Newton
Cam Newton took a doubting sports punditry world by storm in his rookie year and turned it into record-shattering glory [and tons of endorsement deals]. Clearly the talent to make it in the big leagues is there, so who's to say where the Panthers could go when No. 1 matures into an experienced leader who can make the rest of the Panthers look just as good as his individual accomplishments?
Hate - It's a Bird, It's a Plane, It's Superego!
If Cam Newton has a legitimate reason to fear a sophomore slump, he needs only to look in the mirror. This is a guy barely old enough to buy himself beer who now describes himself "not only as a football player but an entertainer and icon." Assume for a minute he goes the way of Sam Bradford instead of Peyton Manning in his second year. An ego that size is pretty hard to bring back to sea level once it sinks-- just look at the Titanic.New Orleans Saints
Love - The "Us Against the World" Mentality
It would be an extraordinary understatement to say the the Saints have had a tough offseason. Although many would agree that this team is still loaded with athletic talent and has accumulated some decent prospects on defense under the care of new DC Steve Spagnuolo, this season will be an uphill battle for a team that has without a doubt fallen from the public's good graces. If you are cheering for the Saints this year, you are cheering for an unlikely underdog that has a little less to lose than it used to. That chip on the shoulder could lead this team to the playoffs since Sean Payton cannot.
Hate - "Us"
What's not to hate about the Saints? Between Bountygate, the subsequent severe laundry list of player and coach suspensions, lost draft picks and fines, a criminal investigation of GM Mickey Loomis' wiretapping allegations, Rita Benson's hiatus from the front office and a never-ending contract battle between Drew Brees and management that few people in the 99% can sympathize with, most will be rooting for "the world" instead of "us" with good reason this year.
July 3, 2012
A Reason to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Season: NFC North Edition
In Part 6 of my preseason punditry, we take a look at reasons to love and hate every team in the NFC North this season:
Chicago Bears
Love- A Chance to See Devin Hester Do More Magic
Assuming they can reach a deal with Matt Forte, the Bears have some real bright spots shining through in a tough division these days. Jay Cutler finally validated [some of] his smug demeanor with solid QB play, and a well-stocked defensive front always keeps things interesting. Still, the hardest working man in Chicago has to be special teams virtuoso Devin Hester, who continues to shatter return scoring records near daily. 2012 should be no different.
Hate - Jay Cutler. Duh.
Although Jay Cutler has arguably surpassed most critics' expectations since he came to Chicago in 2009, he's still not exactly the cuddliest of fan favorites. Untimely injuries, an ever-cynical scowl, and his seething hatred for all of humanity make Cutler pretty darn tough to cheer for in good times and in bad.
Detroit Lions
Love - Ne'er-Do-Wells Could Finally Break Through Big Time
Long-sufferin', thy name is the Detroit Lions. Not only has this team never been to a Super Bowl, the Lions haven't won a playoff game in over 20 years. The last playoff win before that? 1957. And let's not even talk about that 0 - 16 season that put the Lions on the wrong side of the record books just 4 years ago. All the more reason to cheer for a revitalized young team that finally looks like it can give the fans something to smile about for years to come. If karma exists in the NFL, Calvin Johnson & co. are about to pay dividends in Detroit.
Hate - Knights in Schwartz's Service
Chicago Bears
Love- A Chance to See Devin Hester Do More Magic
Assuming they can reach a deal with Matt Forte, the Bears have some real bright spots shining through in a tough division these days. Jay Cutler finally validated [some of] his smug demeanor with solid QB play, and a well-stocked defensive front always keeps things interesting. Still, the hardest working man in Chicago has to be special teams virtuoso Devin Hester, who continues to shatter return scoring records near daily. 2012 should be no different.
Hate - Jay Cutler. Duh.
Although Jay Cutler has arguably surpassed most critics' expectations since he came to Chicago in 2009, he's still not exactly the cuddliest of fan favorites. Untimely injuries, an ever-cynical scowl, and his seething hatred for all of humanity make Cutler pretty darn tough to cheer for in good times and in bad.
Detroit Lions
Love - Ne'er-Do-Wells Could Finally Break Through Big Time
Long-sufferin', thy name is the Detroit Lions. Not only has this team never been to a Super Bowl, the Lions haven't won a playoff game in over 20 years. The last playoff win before that? 1957. And let's not even talk about that 0 - 16 season that put the Lions on the wrong side of the record books just 4 years ago. All the more reason to cheer for a revitalized young team that finally looks like it can give the fans something to smile about for years to come. If karma exists in the NFL, Calvin Johnson & co. are about to pay dividends in Detroit.
Hate - Knights in Schwartz's Service
For all the promise the Lions have shown as of late, they are also fast becoming the athletic counterpart to Detroit's other satanic nobility. Intra-team altercations, multiple drug possession arrests and DUIs during this offseason (and some really dumb ejections/suspensions on the field in 2011) have cast a shadow on the Lions' burgeoning success. Methinks bad apples won't fall far from the tree if feisty head coach Jim Schwartz can't instill a new brand of discipline ASAP in this team, which suddenly has a lot to lose in 2012.
Green Bay Packers
Love - Seeing If Aaron Rodgers Can Do It Again
We knew this guy was good, but Aaron Rodgers' numbers and passer rating were downright inconceivable last season. There can be no doubt that, barring unforeseen injuries or off-the-field quibbles, No. 12 will continue to play at an elite level for a long time. The only question now is, just how elite? Was 2011 the kind of freakish year for Rodgers that even Brady and Manning have only been able to touch once in a blue moon or will he make it look obscenely simple again... hopefully with better playoff results?
Hate - Imbalances Abound
While the Packers' passing game is virtually untouchable, there are still some big uncertainties in the defense and running game that could threaten Title Town's prospects if they go unaddressed this offseason. As much fun as Aaron Rodgers is to watch, it just takes one sub par game from him or his receiving corps (re: losses to the Chiefs and Giants last season) to expose the team's bigger vulnerabilities. The Packers will need more balance in the other phases of the game this year to avoid another painful premature exit in the postseason.
Minnesota Vikings
Love - Jared Allen Getting Another Shot at a Sack Record
With AP on the mend and Christian Ponder still getting his footing, there's no embarrassment of riches to look forward to with the Vikings this season. Nevertheless, Jared Allen came within one of beating Michael Strahan's impressive single-season sack record last year. With games against Jacksonville, Indy, Arizona, St. Louis, Tennessee, Washington and Chicago this year, the mulleted stallion will have another chance to terrorize inexperienced and oft-injured QBs on a regular basis.
Hate - Likely Cannibalization in the NFC North
Sadly, Jared Allen may be the only bright spot for a Vikings squad that is deep in rebuilding mode these days. The rest of the NFC North has rich people's problems in that they may be competitive enough to beat all but the division winner out of the playoffs. The Vikings will simply be cannibalized.
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